Saturday, December 29, 2012

Weather It Is (A Cold New Years?)

Good evening:

After a lot of rain, and even frequent rain, the weather pattern has changed.  Until now, there was high pressure situated to our north, which would funnel cold air south into the Mediterranean region.  The mixture of cold and warm Mediterranean air in concert with an active storm track were the primary drivers in our wet weather.

A few days ago, the weather pattern changed and any storms approaching from the west needed to be really strong just to make it into our region. This so-so weather pattern should continue until just after New Years.

However, the majority of ensemble members are predicting that after a warm start to the New Year, the temperatures should start a downward trend, and then continue downward some more as a potent storm approaches early the next week.  Some ensemble members are even predicting this to be a winter storm with snow in the central mountains and other areas of similar latitude.

We'll have to stayed tuned -- but winter should return before too long.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Weather It Is (Very Rainy)

Good Morning:

A potent storm is on the way. As the storm moves in on Thursday, temperatures should drop by 7 or 8 C.  With the cold weather will come plenty of moisture, and heavy rain should fall south through Hebron and even to Beer-Sheva.  In the Jerusalem area, there will likely be more than 50 mm by sometime on Friday.  Flooding is a definite possibility in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys.

Afterwards, the temperatures will remain chilly, and then another storm should approach and drop temperatures again. Some of the ensemble forecasts even fall below freezing at 850 mb, so winter is advancing as we head towards the end of December.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Weather It Is (Down and Up and Down)

Good Evening:

A storm is on the way, and it should bring showers in two waves: first tonight and tomorrow morning, and then towards evening again.  Our ensemble forecasts show that temperatures will remain chilly for a few days, and then warm up sharply by mid-week before another round of colder air and rain heads our way.

I have to mention that today's sky was really blue, as a cold air circulates around higher pressure to our north.  It was really startling to see the contrast between yesterday's grey and today's blue, as if yesterday's grey had never happened -- except that we measured 0.27 inches of rain!

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Weather It Is (Snowballs?)

Good Evening:

The weather is certainly winter-like.  In fact, the warmup following today's storm won't last long and then we'll be impacted by a series of storms during the 6-8 days.  The details are not well know, yet, but the cold weather should last for a while.  There is some indication that temperatures will warm up sharply days 8-10, but there are still ensemble members that refuse to follow-suit.

The cold winter weather is courtesy of cold, high pressure situated to our north.  The air rotates counter clockwise around this area. At the same time, the jet stream is quite active and storms are moving down a trough of lower pressure over western Europe, southeastward into our area.  These storms draw their energy from the contrast in temperatures between the warm Mediterranean sea and the cold air to the north.

It's really too bad that it won't be cold enough for snow because a good snow ball fight between Palestinian rioters and our soldiers defending us from stone throwing, brick throwing, attempted suicide bombings, and shootings, would be preferable to their rock throwing.

Nevertheless, I'd like to suggest a possible solution to the rock throwing.  Here's why: 
“It’s our obligation to act with proportionality, and to fire our weapons only as a last resort,” the officer said. “We don’t want to hit innocent people.”  Okay, I accept that.  One should also keep in mind that the world power and sayers never condemn rock throwing.  In response, we should equip our soldiers with standard pitching machines, but instead of throwing baseballs these can throw rocks (back) at the rock-throwers.  Since these machines are quite powerful and can be fed a rock every few seconds this should discourage additional rock throwing -- hopefully in time to throw snowballs. 

It's a real problem when this type of behaviour is deemed acceptable -- it doesn't build confidence that we can ever live peacefully together or even apart.

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 10, 2012

Weather It Is (Wintertime?)

Good Evening and and a Happy Chanukah.

It has been suggested that we spell Chanukah, Xanukah, in order to more accurately reflect how to pronounce this holiday.  Well, we've decided to now spell weather --> xeather, which is how the voice sounds (a bit scratchy) as the wintertime dampness and cold sets in.

Rain will arrive shortly, and it will affect the country from just north of Beer Sheva to the far north, with snow possibly falling on the Hermon. The temperatures are about 5 Celcius at 850 mb and -5.5 at 700 mb, not ideal for a big snow on the "Mountain," but it is still early.

The other morning I went out and saw a red sky in the morning.  The phrase goes: "red sky in the morning sailors take warning, red sky in the evening, sailor delight" -- and here we are with a potent storm.

Looking further ahead, we're pretty sure that it will warm up quickly after the storm passes, but then temperatures should trend downwards the rest of the week.  The question is: do they trend sharply after that, with even the small possibility of snow in higher elevations to come?

We can only stay tuned to see how the weather trends.

Barry Lynn
Efrat

"Here's a note from a reader.


The version I learned from my (English) mother which rhymes more nicely goes:

"Red sky at night - shepherd's delight
Red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning"

Thanks for the Weather updates"

Here's another.

"Barry, it's meant to be a rhyme!
Red skies in the morning, sailors take warning.  Red skies at NIGHT, sailors delight."

Friday, December 7, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter and Snow-More)

Good Afternoon:

It's been quite stormy over the northern part of the country, including the coast from Netanya northward.  The rain has retreated a bit to the north, but the storm should move southward tonight and bring a dose of rain to a good part of the country. The rain should end during the day on Shabbat.

This storm will pass, and then the coldest air of the season will arrive on Tuesday, with strong rain, wind, and even snow on the Hermon.  There is a strong consensus in the ensemble forecast for this event to occur, so our Chanukah holiday will get off to a very wet start.

Temperatures should moderate after the next storm, but there will be periods of wet weather to follow (but some periods of wet weather implies times of dry, even "nice" weather).

After the political storm of last week, which I thought was poorly handled by our government, at least for the fact that we seemed to say yes, and then no (we're only planning to build) to the area of E1, I am  perplexed. This wishy washiness was very disturbing to me, and for this reason (and for the seemingly lack of resolution to the Gaza-Hamas problem), I am really not sure who to vote for.

As you are aware, there are no guarantees when it comes to our weather forecasts, although we do our very best to produce the best forecasts based on high-resolution models and an examination of global ensemble forecasts.  We also give our forecasts some personal time, in order to try to bring together various streams of information. On the other hand, when it comes to politics or political (life and death) decisions, it seems that there are those who are all too ready to act with certainty or encourage us to do so.

For instance, we're told that we (Israel) should put our trust in the International Community to look after our welfare, if God forbid, their advice were to lead us to distress (or worse). Yet, I can confidently say (even without a computer model) that this is not a wise course of action.

Several days ago, the Jerusalem Post reported that PM Netanyahu requested permission from neighbouring countries to attack Syrian chemical sites before these deadly ingredients were mixed to form their deadly toxin.  This was refused.

At the same time, President Obama warned the Assad government that there would be grave consequences if it would deploy these chemical weapons (of mass destruction).

Now, the ingredients are mixed and the bombs are ready to go, and any action -- if it comes -- will be too late for the Syrian people.

On our side, the Hamas Palestinian military wing prepares for the next round of fighting, importing even larger missiles than before.  The West Bank Palestinian political wing (headed by Abbas) continues its diplomatic warfare against us. 

The world political bodies tell us to make peace with the Palestinians, to give them an independent state both in Gaza and the West Bank -- a state that then would be able to import (sneak in) missiles both to Gaza and the West Bank (even if there is a disarmament agreement). We're also told that the international community will provide us with security guarantees.  I suppose that they'll even offer to protect or assure us that any Palestinian towns to be built on the road to Maale Adumin will never be a threat (unlike our not to distant past).

This is the same international community that failed to present past genocides (including our own during the Holocaust) and stands by while another one is about to happen.  Grave consequences -- when they happen -- usually happen to the victims.  

I realise that it is not an ideal situation for the West Bank Palestinians, but life isn't about being fair, but rather it is a a choice of survival.  We, as the Israeli people, should choose not to be victims again-- say no to a state of Palestine in the West Bank!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Weather It Is (It's Raining!)

Our weather pattern has really changed for the better.  In fact, the weather over most of Europe is quite cold, and it is this cold air that continues to "dig" southward.  As it does so, the atmosphere forms "troughs," which are associated with diverging air.  Divergence leads to rising air and as this air flows over the sea it forms clouds, which then precipitate.

This weather patterns looks to be a somewhat locked in, and this is where the problems start.  I don't mean the rain, which should continue periodically for the next two weeks.  I mean the rather frosty reception our government (country?) is getting for deciding enough is enough.  I mean, if they (the Palestinians) won't negotiate with us, then let us act as if they don't exist (i.e, don't let them factor into our decisions about where to build or not).

On the otherhand, the fastest way for the Palestinians to stop our building on what they consider their land would be to simply agree that this land is theirs and our is ours, and that their Palestinians neighbours living elsewhere should live in their country not ours.  However, the Palestinians refuse to let us be -- they insist that their citizens must be able to live in our country.  and they and peacemaking are like a glacier that moves very little or not at all -- except to the UN (where they hope to have their country and then ours).

Even the rain has brought controversy.  A lot of the rain falling in the mountains on the eastern side of the old Green Line is running off into Israel proper. The Palestinians are talking about going to the ICC. accusing us of stealing their rain....

While, at least it is raining, and so far the seasonal forecast of a wet winter is coming true.

Barry Lynn