Saturday, December 30, 2017

Weather It Is (Very Wet and Stormy)

Good Evening:

As I mentioned in a previous blog, storms this year have been following typical storm tracks of old, passing eastward across Crete and then on to Cyprus.  This brings both winter chill from Europe and moisture from the Mediterranean, which combines to bring the rain.  The problem has been that there haven't been too many such storms so far this winter. Still, the last storm produced almost 50 mm (2 inches) of rain here in Efrat, in about 12 hours time.

In contrast, in recent years we've had several storms move southward from Western Russia/Siberia and down through Turkey, which have brought extreme cold, but not very much precipitation.  They were "snow-teases" so to speak.  Of course, one such storm brought us our heavy, heavy snow of December 2013, but it was positioned just right to produce plenty of precipitation under conditions quite cold enough for snow (in Jerusalem, etc).

Fortunately (although some would say with "Divine-Intervention" (see below)), the forecast shows two such Cyprus bearing low pressure systems moving our way during the coming week.  Moreover, both storms could bring very heavy rain (even flooding rains), and the second should bring strong winds.  Both should bring snow to the Hermon mountain. Moreover, because some of the global ensemble forecasts shows temperatures below -25 C at 500 mb, some of the storms could produce thunder and lightning.

Last Thursday, which was also a day of fasting, was chosen as the day to beseech God for rain.  As noted at the Israel Meteorological Service's Web Site (http://www.ims.gov.il/IMSEng/Tazpiot/RainObservations/) we've received about 50% of normal rainfall amounts this winter. So, various Rabbis decided it was time to hold a communal prayer session. The invitation is below (in Hebrew), calling for special prayers, a sermon, and additional afternoon prayers special for this day of fasting.  Strangely, it's also written ("No Chazaim Allowed").  Even stranger this phrase was noted in English, even though the writer used the Hebrew word for forecaster  ("Chazaim").  What was I too make of it?  What were they trying to keep me from seeing?

(Interestingly, I heard that prayers were also conducted today, despite the forecast of rain. Apparently, we learn from Mordechai of Purim-fame that one shouldn't stop praying for a miracle just because things are going well or the forecast looks good.)

I had dressed up in a large hat, painted a moustache below my nose, and made my way over to the prayer session.  It was very well attended.  Despite my disguise, I heard someone say: "why are you here, go home and do your job."  Someone heard him, and soon after I was running down the sidewalk with a crowd behind me, each with a prayer sheet in their hands.  Fortunately, a strong wind came and stopped this crowd, but not me in its tracks.  I made my way home, and sheepishly explained to my wife where I'd been.  She called in sick the next day to work.

Barry Lynn




Monday, December 25, 2017

Weather It Is (A Break And Then Rain)

Good Evening:

Our recent rains were quite heavy.  Here in Efrat, we recorded almost 50 mm of rain, and it occurred in about 12 hours of time.  Where I come from, this would be equivalent to about 20 inches of snow in half a day -- except where I live now it's usually too warm for snow.

On a side note: the amounts that occurred were about three times the amounts forecast -- so the weather can still surprise us.  There were very many heavy rain showers imbedded in the storm, which meant that the air was both more moist and colder than forecast.

The temperatures were on the chilly side today, but they will rebound tomorrow and stay at mild levels until Shabbat.

At that time, an even stronger storm is forecast to approach our area and heavy rain will probably occur over many areas. Temperatures should also fall to chilly levels, and remain there for a few days.

I just received historical weather data from The Israeli Atmospheric and Climatic Data Center (IACDC), funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology and set up at the Tel Aviv University.  I'd like to do two things: i) analyze the data for trends, and ii) determine what is normal weather on each particular day.  Too many times, we say: "boy, it's hot," or "this winter is much cooler than last," but we really don't know.  Our memories are actually quite faulty when it comes to remembering past events, and especially weather (as who really notices the weather anyway).

Analyzing the data for trends is not really anything new, although the results of such analysis are not readily available.  However, I rarely see any reference in publicly given forecasts relative to what is normal weather.  When I complete my analysis, I plan to add the results of this feature to my web site.

I thought of a few more jokes about restaurants that charge a lot for meal courses, but serve very little food.  The first was: they have elegant service, but relatively little to serve.  In regard to the next, I had noticed that my son had a very large bowl of soup.  However, it turns out that the birds-eye view of the soup bowl and the soup reminded one of the Dead-Sea.  The last: my plate was so large I had to stand to reach the food in the middle of it.

I won't be heading over to Avi Friedman's Comedy for Koby, but at least my wife laughed (and I suppose that's good).

Barry Lynn


Thursday, December 21, 2017

Weather It Is (What To Do?)

Good Evening:

I had a call today from someone planning a prayer session for rain, which would include the local schools.   The question: to go ahead or not? Right now, it's not just people that are confused but the plants are confused.  The roses are blooming and young couples are looking at each other like they're in love.  It's been that kind of weather -- after a relatively cool period it's been no-jacket weather (even in Jerusalem).

However, after another warm day on Friday, a front will arrive early Shabbat morning  Temperatures should fall on blustery northwesterly winds and moisture will arrive late Motzei Shabbat.  The storm will pass east of Cyprus and then north of us on Monday, bringing substantial (10s of mm of) rain from north to south, with rain amounts generally increasing from south central Israel to the far north.

The cool weather should last into mid-week and then temperatures should turn milder.  Yet, another storm appears to be brewing for the end of the year.  Right now, there seems to be no possibility of any frozen precipitation with this end of the year storm, and it is not yet forecast to be as strong as the one we're expecting early next week.

So, to go ahead with the prayers for rain? What would you do?

In fact, these type of existential questions also apply to where to dine out.  You see, finding a restaurant to eat out is full of peril.  For instance, we just completed a promotional event for our new total lightning network.  We stayed at the David Intercontinental Hotel in Tel-Aviv for a night, and had dinner at one of the in-house restaurants.  It was fine-dining with excellent service, in a quiet and relaxed atmosphere.  The problem?  The food was nicely presented on a big plate, decorated with fancy sauces -- but the portions were tiny.   This is because the bigger the plate the smaller the amount of food served.  In fact, years ago my wife felt so sorry for me she gave me part of her portion.
You can see from the picture  that I was distressed -- especially after a hard day, searching for the very last rice kernel that had appeared as a pillow (not blanket) under my small chicken pieces.  What to do? Do you go out to another restaurant for fillers?

The last time this happened (years ago), the manager asked us how was the food. When we said quite tasty but that the portions were too small, he said we should have asked for more.  We live in a strange country!

In contrast, we also ate at a steak house (Tzidkahu) in Talpiot, Jerusalem.  Here, the waiters bring a million different salads and enough food to take home, and the plates although large are not too, too large. One goes home a bit frazzled from the commotion and music, but one goes home full.

Of course, I am thankful to have any food to eat.  Still, I'd like to combine a big meal with a relaxed atmosphere -- but rarely do we ever really get everything we want.  The next morning, I ate a big breakfast.


Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Good Evening:

Our weather seems to be a bit on hold.  This isn't a bad thing, as many people are up and about during this "holiday" Chanukah week. There have been a few showers, and even more clouds, but it hasn't been too chilly either.  In fact, the next few days, even several days should see milder weather as winds generally blow from westerly -- and at times -- southerly direction.

However, the global forecast ensemble (GEFS) suggests that the end of this week should turn a lot colder, and rain is likely.  There is even a chance of extremely cold temperatures (near zero), and the possibility of turning the calendar on Chanukah into a "real" winter with accumulating snow.  However, the probability of heavy precipitation (and or snow) is only 20%.

While this doesn't seem likely, there is some good news in that the overall atmospheric pattern (as indicated by the "North Atlantic Oscillation" or NAO) is indicative of the potential for significant storms in our area.  This is because a positive NAO tends to encourage circulation patterns that direct colder air our way from due north, which helps to keep temperatures cold and to spin up storms that can produce heavy precipitation.

While I may be hoping for a big storm to spin up and bring us a heavy snow, I still have to contend with day to day happenings that make my own head spin.  After cleaning the salon and kitchen, baking Challah, boiling eggs (!), making blintzes, and pie crust, the first thing I hear is:
"I came home at 1 (1300) so that you wouldn't still be here..., You can't eat until the table is clean."  "Abba, when will I get my kitchen back?"  "Abba, move your stuff."

You see, there may be problems, and no good problems in the workplace, but the home is also a place of competition.  There is even a competition over being tall.  In fact, we did a bit of checking for one of our kids and he is expected to soar above both of us (and reach -- quite possibly -- 170 cm).  While I would have loved to have reached this height, it wasn't good enough for my wife who said that she wasn't worried about marrying me (height wise), saying: "I thought that I would win out and all the kids, especially, the boys would be much taller than I." This just goes to show that when you really want to marry someone, love conquers all.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Weather It Is (Ups And Downs)

Good Evening:

People are speaking to me about the weather, which is a lot better than when they only glared.  Instead of being angry (with me) they want to know what's with all the changes, and why it's stopped raining.

But, first the weather: our storm has departed and it will be warming up quite nicely as warm air flows moves in with a trough of lower pressure centered over the deserts to our southeast.  The warmth will peak on Tuesday, prior to the first night of Chanukah.

A cold front should then arrive Tuesday night from the west and temperatures should fall into Friday morning.  In contrast to yesterday's forecast, we're now getting indications of a chance of rain from Thursday through Shabbat. At the moment, it doesn't look  like a heavy rain.

Getting back to "why" it has stopped raining.  Unfortunately, the regional climate change models forecast that increased Carbon Dioxide levels should lead to more frequent, if not severe droughts in our area, with the drought more intense in northern areas.  This would be in response to a northward drift of the winter jet stream that provides us with "Cyprus Low," our main rain producers.

As you are aware, there are those who object to the idea that climate change caused by industrial gases is a serious problem or if it exists at all. For instance, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has relied on a range of climate forecast models to warn us of dire consequences in the decades ahead.  These models have produced a range of possible temperature increases during this century, from devastatingly hot to more temperate, with the mean of the projected changes depending on how much greenhouse gases we produce.  In reality, the global mean temperatures have increased (by a few tenths of a degree), but this is below or just within the lower boundary of the predictions.  In other words, > 95% of the global forecasts were/are hotter than our current reality.  Clearly, there are physical processes not well represented by most of the models.

On the other, there have been terrible fires in the western US, where it was terribly hot during the summer, and winter rains are late.  In contrast, it just snowed in Houston, Texas, and Atlanta Georgia just had its largest snow in years (several inches or more) -- and it is early December.

How do we explain that?  In simple terms, the increase in greenhouse gases has increased the energy "retained" by the atmosphere.  More energy in the system means that the waves that grow because of latitudinal (north to south (or south to north)) temperature differences can amplify more strongly (deeply) than without the added energy.  These waves can transport unseasonably hot weather further north then "normal," and colder air further south.  On the net the earth is warmer, but some areas can experience unseasonable heat or cold.

As for us, we're ahead of last year in terms of rainfall.  In fact, last year at this time it had barely begun to rain.  After rainfall began on the 13th of December, it rained a number of times before the end of the month. However, January was very dry, and February not particularly wet. We had about 50% of the normal seasonal rainfall.  However last year's fall was particularly dusty and warm, while this year's fall has felt more winter-like.  Based on this, I think there is hope for this year.

Happy Chanukah!

Barry Lynn


Monday, December 4, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Begins Again)

Good Evening:

The winds are about to change direction and so will our temperatures. Instead of a mild day tomorrow, temperatures will be trending downwards, and rain should arrive along the coast by Tuesday evening.

The storm should be moving southeastward past Cyprus and is forecast to bring periods of rain from Tuesday night into Friday morning to much of the country.  This won't be a very heavy rain, but it should produce 10s of millimeters of rain in many areas.  There should also be strong breezes on Wednesday with higher gusts.

The storm's path will bring the coldest air to northern areas, with temperatures near zero at 850 mb forecast to just skirt to the north of Jerusalem, along with temperatures near -10 C.  This means that there will be chance of wet snow (not-accumulating) over the northern mountains, with accumulating snow likely on the Hermon.

Because the storm should be fairly cold aloft, there is also the chance of thunderstorms.

Temperatures should start to warm up on Shabbat and milder temperatures with a slight chance of showers are expected for the start of Chanukah.

Chanukah Samaech!