Good afternoon:
It's cold in Siberia and it's going to be cold here, too. Of course, cold is relative. On the other hand, for a week in mid-March, you can imagine that folks would wonder where is Spring?
Well, the point is that it's cold in Siberia and there's a pipeline of cold air headed our way. Temperatures will drop further today in the layer of atmosphere just above the sunlight heated planetary boundary layer, and then further Monday night and Tuesday. In fact, the temperatures will be more typical the coldest of any of January's days (see Tuesday's minimum temperature forecast map).
At the same time, an upper level trough of (cold) low pressure will nose it's way southwestward into northwest Syria. The counterclockwise flow of cold air around the low pressure trough will bring moisture on shore, while the extreme cold keeps much of it as snow in the higher elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas. Right now, our model shows snow late Monday night in Tuesday afternoon, with the best time for an accumulation before too late Monday morning (the cloud-shielded midday sun will probably act to melt the snow). Depending on just how far west the upper trough makes it, will determine if the snow continues into the evening, and accumulates some more.
Right now, we're right on the edge temperature wise, in terms of an accumulation. What isn't in doubt is the cold. Darn those mittens and hats, and make sure your jacket buttons are all accounted for.
Barry Lynn
Good evening:
We'll be on the edge of an intense storm situated to our north. Cold air sweeping around the storm will bring us a real chill Thursday and Friday, with a bit of rain as well.
This storm was forecast several days back to bring a prolonged period of cold and precipitation, but as time evolved, the forecast became less cold and less rainy. Still, Thursday will be quite windy in the late morning and afternoon . This will make for very cold wind chill temperatures.
Temperatures should rebound nicely early next week -- and then all bets are off. Or, perhaps all bets are on for a potential Purim snowstorm. As noted by our "Israel Winter Weather" member, Yaakov Cantor, it did snow on Purim, but mostly during the colder decades of the 60s and 70s. It snowed the day before Purim in 1987.
The reason we mention this potential storm is that the global models are hinting towards an unusually cold period during the second week of March, which given that we're about 10 days off -- might mean something more than just some joke told during a Purim Spiel.
Of course, I won't tell my wife or my daughter. They've both turned against me. True, my wife pretended to like snow when we first met (and even built a small snowman with me), but either half of a new couple seems to like just about anything, so long as they really like the other half. But, with time, that infatuation for all things the other half wears off a bit, especially when it comes to cold and snowy days (for a person born near the beach).
What really gets me is that my oldest daughter -- the one who asked the question: "can it snow at Hanukkah time," and hence was directly responsible for bringing our massive December 2013 snowstorm to our mountainous terrain -- has also turned against me. On our morning walks all she speaks about are warm summer days and how she misses them.
So, here's my advice: before you marry, be sure to ask the important questions -- after all, kids take after their parents.
Be well, and stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
