Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Weather It Is (The Plot Deepens)

Good Afternoon:

We've had a nice winter day and Thursday's weather should even be a bit nicer: even warmer with lots of sunshine and continued light winds.

However, our weather map will take a turn towards winter, which should begin in the north late Friday and spread to the center of the country by late Saturday afternoon. The winds will also pick up and there could be some wind gusts above advisory levels.  Rain amounts from Shabbat into Monday morning should generally be between 25-50 mm in many locations.

Looking further ahead, the more significant system we spoke about the other day is starting to become better resolved by the global ensemble model.  This involves a a ridge of high pressure building into central Europe with extremely cold air dropping down from western Russia, potentially forming a deep winter trough and winter storm in the eastern Mediterranean.

Unlike the approaching storm, which will approach from the west, the energy for this storm will approach from the north. This would preserve the unusually cold air features of this very winter-like system, as it will be passing over land instead of sea.

Since last night, the forecasts probabilities of a wintertime (snow) storm have increased from about 20% to 35%.  Concurrently, all the ensemble members now show a 500 mb pattern indicating trough formation in our area, meaning that the models have latched onto a signal that could mean a return to whiteness for us. The timing for this system is Tuesday into Thursday of next week.

Yet, a 35% chance is not a certainty; in fact, it is less than half. On the other hand, the area of the world from which this system will originate is not well sampled (observed), so any signal (especially of this probability 9 days in advance) is worth watching.

One might wish for greater certainty, but half of the weather excitement of living in Israel is waiting for whatever weather event "mother-nature" has in store.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Weather It Is (High Clouds and then the Storm)

Good Morning:

The sky is streaked with high clouds ahead of our next winter storm.  As previously mentioned, the separation between the northern and southern Jet Streams has come to an end and we are seeing cold air (previously locked up in northern Europe) stream southward.

The interaction of the southern and northern streams has brought gale force winds to the Mediterranean, as well as severe winter cold to central Europe.  The stormy weather will move eastward towards our area by the end of the week.  Shabbat will likely be rainy and windy, with a small chance of rain mixed with snow at the highest elevations.  A ridge of high pressure will then build into western Europe which will allow the trough of lower pressure to strengthen over the eastern Mediterranean.  This will allow the coldest air of the winter season to spill southwards and possibly develop a an even stronger winter storm that will last several days. (In any case, next week looks to be a wet week.)

While we know it will be wet and windy, we don't know yet how cold it will get as the storm possibly reintensifies early next week. This will depend on just much the ridge to our west sharpens, which itself will depend on the influx and movement winter time system over the western Atlantic.

In summary, we know it will be quite wet with strong, possibly gale force winds.  Will it snow on the Hermon -- yes.  Will it snow elsewhere, most likely not -- but there's a chance it will.

Barry Lynn

Friday, December 26, 2014

Weather It Is (A Wave and a Crash)/

Good Afternoon:

The weather has been quite pleasant -- and no one is complaining. Yet, it is hard to beat the calendar and he calendar says we're headed towards January.

The past month was a bit odd weather-wise.  We had frequent rain, but not particularly very much.  The weather was more like late fall in NY than early winter in Israel.  This was in response to a split in the jet stream, where the southern stream was active but unable to tap the cold air associated with the northern jet stream.

This may be changing towards late next week -- perhaps just in time for my next (isn't it always?) birthday.  The split pattern should end and a deep trough will form over western-central Europe and move  -- like a wave -- eastward. It appears that some rain should occur with this system as temperatures dive down into the single digits.  Just how cold we'll get remains to be seen, but right now it looks most probably  to be just rain.  We'll need a bigger wave and bigger crash on our shores to bring more than this.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Weather It Is (Some Rain)

Good Evening:

We're looking at low pressure moving into our area during the next couple of days.  There will be a chance of showers into Tuesday morning, with lighter showers Sunday into Monday, and heavier rain more likely Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

The weather pattern, however, is showing a bit of split flow.  The low pressure is swinging around broad high pressure over northern Africa and Southern Europe.  This broad area of low pressure will then build further eastward, and all of our winter "cold" will be shunted to the northern reaches of Europe for several days thereafter.

It won't be until the end of this week before the high pressure area begins to take on a more north-to south orientation, which will allow for cold air to seep southward again. This will allow for a stronger trough of low pressure to develop over the central Mediterranean.  The high pressure system may then nose to the east, bringing even more cold air into the trough.  Whether it makes it as far as our way remains to be seen.

Chanukah Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Weather It Is (The Weather Starts to Feel Cooler)

Good Evening:

There was a nip in the air today; yet, the air is going to get a lot nippier soon.  Temperatures are headed downwards as our next storm begins to take shape in the eastern Mediterranean.

The problem: we're not really sure just exactly how this next storm is going to develop.  There will be a slight chance of showers on Shabbat, and then the energy associated with the next storm will move into our area early next week. Still,  it's not clear how much phasing of the northern and southern jet streams will take place.

Some of the Global Ensemble members are showing quite a lot of phasing and a lot of cold air streaming southward.  However, there is no trend yet in the overall ensemble so we can't really commit to any type of scenario just yet.  The less said, the better.

In fact, my wife was quite pleased when she heard that the doctor told me to try "not to speak," as I am suffering from a bit of laryngitis. She didn't really say why, but she seemed quite sure of herself about this.

It's interesting: the "whole" point of feminism was to give women a chance to be more than just a homeowner, much more, in fact.  One consequence was that the husbands should take on the "womanly" tasks like cooking, wash, etc.  Yet, it doesn't really seem that my wife is too pleased that I took my mother and sister's encouragement to be pro-feminism, and I wonder if this is simply because I have invaded her "turf."  After all, did women (who were queen (or is that king?) of the kitchen really want to share their domain with someone else?

If so, why in one of my nicknames "Maetzben?"  (Something bothersome, for those who don't know this word.) I seem to get this a lot when I try to help in any way other than taking out the trash or cleaning the dishes.

It's tough to be a husband in today's modern age, but I have to admit that I can put up with the criticism in order to be a little creative in the kitchen.  After all, I can make the perfect pizza even if I can't make the perfect weather forecast.

Chanukah Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Weather It Is (A Weather Review and Forecast)

Good Morning:

Today's rainy weather should generally leave between 10 and 25 mm of rain along the coastal regions.  There will be occasional lightning during the day as well.  There will be lesser amounts in the center of the country and up north.

Looking head, we see the possibility of another system approaching towards the end of the week.  At this time, it is not clear (from the ensemble data) how much rain should fall with this system. There is the possibility for significant rain, but it is equally as likely that rain will be generally light. 

I'd like to bring a greater understanding with regard to the recent heavy rain/lightning event that impacted the Jerusalem area Friday evening. There was also heavy rain and lightning from Beer-Sheva to the Dead Sea Basin.  This event was not forecast using the GFS forecast data from the previous night (the 0 GMT data), but only with the 6 GMT data (and an ensemble model). If you'd like a better understanding about the predictability of weather, please read on.

While speaking about the potential for terrorist attacks against the United States, Donald Rumsfeld -- then the Secretary of Defense -- stated: "There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."

This quote is very relevant because it describes the state of the art with regard to weather forecasting.  It also provides an opportunity for improvement. 

1) Things we know we know: these are synoptic Systems often seen as areas of low or high pressure on the weather map.  This is the type of situation we forecast quite well and well in advance with our high resolution model (1.3 km single ("deterministic") forecast) a couple of weeks back, where there was heavy rain (> 100 mm) from Ashkelon eastward to Jerusalem. 
2) There are things we know we don’t know: the location and intensity of rainfall in a previous synoptically driven convective rain were forecast more accurately with our 4 km ensemble forecast.  In this situation, the coastal cities received localized heavy rain amounts of > 25 mm in three hours.
3) There are things we don’t know we don’t know: these are weather systems that originate in small convective clouds, and are smaller than the resolvable synoptic grid.  That is, they won't appear in the forecast grid of the synoptic scale model, even though they can (with a "fine eye")  be seen by satellite or in a lightning detection network.   Yet, these convective events  nevertheless grow up-scale to become mesoscale convective storms.  Once they reach the mesoscale, they are often resolvable by the global models presently in use today.   This is the event of Friday evening. It became apparent only with the 6 GMT forecast information -- that is, it grew upscale (with large enough size) to be "seen: (resolved) on the GFS forecast grid. Our high resolution forecast of this significant rain event became available just prior to the event, and was forecast only with our high resolution 4 km ensemble.  The deterministic model did not forecast this event.

There are avenues available for forecast improvement.  The use of satellite information or a lightning network might allow for the forecast of these events several hours in advance. 

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Weather It Is (Not Much, But It's Winter)

Good Morning:

Today's temperatures will be quite pleasant.  Then, a weak area of low pressure will approach the eastern Mediterranean bringing a chance of showers.

High pressure remains anchored over the eastern Atlantic ocean. This allows for areas of low pressure to move across the sea, but without a good supply of cold air these systems weaken as they move eastward.  We see no change for the next week or so, just more wintertime temperatures than the past few days.

The other day I asked my wife to go for a walk, and promised her that it wouldn't rain on us.  Her reply: "that's what you said last time."  Sometimes, I really wish I was a doctor of medicine instead of  atmospheric science (and environment).  First, it is a lot easier to fix an earache, rather than a rainy day.  Second, imagine my triumph when the kids ask me if they have an earache, and I can confidently answer: "yes, you do! -- now take your medicine and you'll be better no-time."  Instead, I get questions like: "will it rain today?"  "Possibly," I answer.  "Not good enough!" -- I get back.

The worst is right before a possible snow-storm.  I go to sleep and I toss and turn until morning. I open my eyes and, yes, it did snow.  I'm thrilled -- but only until I realize that I was just dreaming.  It gets worse: I even started dreaming that I woke up, pinched myself, just to be sure, and then...

It makes me to want to retire, or at least switch fields of work.  Did you know I make amazing Yogurt? The best in the land.  This is both satisfying and a way of developing deep friendships -- at least with my friends: Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermopiles.


Have a good day!

Barry Lynn




Friday, December 5, 2014

Weather It Is (Looking Ahead)

Good Afternoon:

It appears that our late fall/early winter weather will be changing.  Temperatures should start heading downwards and it will feel more like winter by early next week.

At the same time, weak low pressure should approach the area on or about Tuesday bringing showers, but no significant rain.

Temperatures will snap upwards for a day or two, but then head down to even cooler levels by the start of Chanukah.

We don't see any real cold air in the forecast, but it should start to get wetter, and significant rain may occur early the following week.

Where is the rain of yesterday?  Looking at the weather map shows strong high pressure over the eastern Atlantic.  Storms forming to the east of this eventually transfer southern Europe, but a kink in the jet stream prevents any real cold air from spinning up these storms, so they dissipate as they approach.

Sometimes, positive interactions among weather systems leads to amplification, while other times systems weaken.  The same can occur during social interactions, and one should try to steer clear of the situations or times when it takes more than one to make a real argument. On the other hand, one good mood or smile can also make a difference.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 1, 2014

Weather It Is (Rumors)

Good Evening:

We just received a frantic call about next week's snowstorm.   The problem is that we're not speaking, writing, or even hinting about a snowstorm next week.

In fact, the next two days will be really nice as temperatures warm by about 6 degrees.

It's what happens (or might happen) starting early next week that seems to be causing the panic.
We see that a storm might develop next week, and that sometime next week it might rain.  We also see a 10% chance that the northern jet stream will phase with the southern jet stream and bring us unusually cold temperatures.

However, unlike last year when it just a question of how cold, now it's a question of whether it will be cold or not, let enough cold enough for snow.

So, let's stop the rumors, the panic, and frantic preparations, and just wait to see how the weather plays out -- so no worries just yet.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Weather It Is (A Breather, Yet)

Good Morning:

By this time last year, we had recorded only 11 mm of rain in Efrat. This year, we are close to 150 mm.  Last year, we received almost 300 mm in a week's time, but nearly nothing until March.

After last year's intense winter storm, a blocking pattern developed in western Europe (which directed the rest of the winter time storm-energy into northern Europe).  This year, we generally see that storms transverse across southern Europe, while higher pressure over north-central Europe feeds cold (storm) energy southward, helping to spin up these storms as they approach the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead through this week, however, we see no significant weather.  Yet, we do these a signal for much colder and possibly much wetter weather next week.  Contained within this signal is some unseasonably cold weather. Nevertheless, the possibility of stormy weather remains at this time unclear.  It's possible, but not certain.

On the other hand -- always the optimist -- we ordered larger sized snow bibs for our oldest daughter.  My wife (the Israeli) thinks this sort of funny (if not a waste of money).  I can only say that one would hate to miss the few chances to enjoy the snow for want of proper snow pants.  In my day, we went up north to ski. Here, we are hopeful that we might step outside to build a snowman.  

By the way, after not snowing for three years in a row, we have now had snow three years in a row.  Snowfall amounts in the eastern US have certainly been increasing compared to the decade of the 90s. We should, perhaps, be optimistic.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Weather It Is (Our Storm Ends -- Eventually)

Good Morning:

One might have noticed last night the pitter patter of raindrop-feet on the roof.  If one listened carefully, one might have noticed that they were not all of the same size -- one shoe does not fit all!

Our winter storm will weaken today, and eventually move away tonight.

In the meantime, our forecast still shows that between 10 and 25 mm should fall in the area of Ashquelon (south).  The rain will be drifting southward towards the far southern coast and Beer-Sheva. Even though the rain is ending, the amounts could still exacerbate flooding.  Rain will continue in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion as well. 

Looking ahead: with the exception of a slight chance of showers early next week, we are looking at drier and warmer weather until week's end.  

The following week should see a drop in temperatures.  There is a 30% chance of rain the following week.  If the rain occurs, temperatures should drop off and snow may fall on the Golan again.  We're watching a slight chance of snow in the higher elevations, but this is not something to worry about yet.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Weather It Is (A Stampede)

Good Morning:

The pleasant pitter-patter of rain drops of the past few days has become a stampede.

Moisture streaming around low pressure over Cyprus will continue to develop heavy rain in a corridor from Ashquelon to Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. Forecast rain amounts are > 100 mm within this corridor stretching eastward through Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. There will be greater than 50 mm in an area extending into southern Tel Aviv and to its east.

The strongest wind speeds will occur within the next few hours within the heavy rain corridor.  Gusts of > 50 km/h are likely.

Periods of rain should continue tomorrow, but in lighter amounts.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Arrives)

Good Morning:

The winter storm we wrote about a few days ago is upon us.

It will start later this afternoon in the north and heavy rain, strong winds, and lightning will move southward during the evening and night. 

The storm is forecast to last up to three days (into Thursday night).

There will be some snow on the Hermon, but the real story will the total rain amounts that should average between 50 to 100 mm from about Beer-Sheva to the Golan.  Localized areas of greater than 100 mm will also occur.

Flooding is expected in all flood prone areas: the coastal cities, area of Beer-Sheva, and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Weather It Is (Winter Storm)

Good Morning:

Yesterday's storm brought mostly wind rather than rain.  However, yesterday's storm will strengthen today and bring rain to most of the central and northern parts of the country.  There is a small chance of flooding in the central and north coastal regions with some of the storms, as well as lighting from noon today until Monday  morning.

The rain on Monday should spread to the eastern valleys.  Total rain amounts should be between 50 to 100 mm along the coast and 10 to 25 mm in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys through Tuesday afternoon. Lighter rain amounts are forecast throughout the Arava.

There is a high probability that more cold air will move into the storm by mid-week, and hence very strong development is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be a very heavy rain covering most of the country with very strong and possibly damaging winds. Snow is a strong possibility on the Hermon.

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 21, 2014

Weather It Is (A Winter Storm and Merry...

Good Morning:

High pressure over central Europe will help funnel wintertime temperatures our way during the next few days.  The cold air will help to spin up a series of storms, which should bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Flooding is a distinct possibility in flood prone areas like the Jordan Valley, Dead Sea, and areas of the northern Arava.  Rain may continue off and on all week!

The rain should enter the coast this afternoon and spread to the central mountains later in the day.  While Shabbat may start not very rainy, rain should redevelop and come down heavy at times during the afternoon and continue into Sunday.

Our security forces just stopped a "Christmas" shipment of knives, fireworks, and swords, which were meant to make our Palestinian neighbours a merry time indeed.  Imagine if the shipment contained toys? Unfortunately, this is as likely as John Lennon's song "Imagine" coming to be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Weather It Is (A Big Storm On The Way)

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Weather It Is (Stormy)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly pleasant, and it will actually be warming up a bit ahead of the next storm system.  However, this is only a short ride before the crash - the crash of a severe winter storm that should batter us with heavy rain and strong winds from Friday night onwards.

In fact, this should be a prolonged period of wet weather and rain amounts should be generally between 50 to 100 mm over large portions of the country, with some areas receiving more than 100 mm over the wet period.

Looking further ahead, we see the possibility of another storm later next week.  This one might bring snow to Mt. Hermon.

I just heard that the government suggests we post guards at the entrances to synagogues. They are also suggesting that all Israelis buy protective gear -- the kind that resembles "full-body armor." These body armor suits will be available very soon and can be picked up at the same location where gas masks are distributed.   It seems that the best defense is not the best offense.  My suggestion is to evacuate the residents of Jabel Mukaber and then raze it to the ground. Send them to Syria, where their tendencies for blood lust can be certainly fine tuned. 

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 14, 2014

Weather It Is (Heavy Rain)

Good Afternoon:

The forecast for Saturday evening into Sunday looks to be quite rainy.  Our 4 km forecast is predicting 50--100 mm of rain during this period in the coastal regions. The rain will develop in response to low pressure forming off the coast late Saturday afternoon.  Rain will spread inland towards the central mountains, although lesser amounts will likely occur.

These storms will likely be accompanied by lightning strikes. Stay away from open spaces and/or isolated trees. 

The next rain event will probably arrive late next week.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Weather It Is (A Winter Day...)

Good Evening:

The weather has certainly been delightful -- quite stunning.

Yet -- on schedule -- energy from a broad area of low pressure over western Europe is headed our way.  It should arrive in the afternoon on Shabbat, spin up a storm, and bring a light to moderate rain (most likely) later in the day and at night, possibly lasting into Sunday.

After the passage of this low pressure area, the weather will clear out for a few days.  However, by mid-week the large trough will be moving our way.  One of our ensemble members even shows temperatures dropping off towards freezing about two weeks out.  More likely, it will just get more like winter cold, but the cold we have associated with a rainy day.  Right  now, the chance of rain is about 40% for this period.

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 10, 2014

Weather It Is (A Loss Come Back To Haunt Us)

Good Evening:

We've had three beautiful days as weak high pressure has remained over our area.  We'll cruise along for another couple of days, while temperatures trend slowly downwards.

Mid-week, upper level energy will be ejected from a large trough of low pressure over western Europe.  It should make its way eastward, and bring us some light to moderate rain at the end of this week.

Unlike last year when the trough of low pressure over Europe remained stuck in place (and anonymously strong), the current trough is forecast to break down.  This will possibly set our table for more winter weather sometime next week, as high pressure builds over central Europe, and feeds cold air into our neck of the woods.

Speaking of cruising, it seems that the Palestinians have taken to cruising their cars into us. If that is not enough, knife attacks in the neck seem to be a "nice' follow up.

You might remember that I wrote sometime ago that if anyone (of Hamas) is left standing to claim victory after the Gaza war, then we've lost.  Well, now the same Hamas folks are encouraging more attacks and praising those who make them.  Of course, the so-called peace-loving (moderate; wouldn't hurt a fly) Palestinian Authority also has their hands in the mix.  When it comes down to it, there is really relatively little difference between Mr. Hamas and Mr. Fatah (Abbas) -- the latter just wears a different color suit.

It is time to close the roads again to Palestinians!  Or, send in the tanks and crush all their cars.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Weather It Is (Small Scale Rain)

Good Morning:

Our latest forecasts shows a very small scale feature. This small scale feature is producing a streamer of rain off the Mediterranean.  Most of the heavier rain is located in the area of Tel-Aviv, where 15 to 20 mm is shown in some locations during the late night hours.  Lighter showers are occurring towards Jerusalem.  Showers are still possible from Tel-Aviv to the Jerusalem mountains during Wednesday.


Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Weather It Is (A Pause for A Word)

Good Evening:

Our latest storm system is on its way out of the area, and we are the worse for it -- at least when it comes to broken windshields from large sized hail, downed trees from strong winds, and a few locations singed by lightning.

Looking ahead shows a nice warm up, which will bring back more pleasant temperatures.  The weather pattern shows a relative zone of weak winds over our area, as the weather "action" shifts far west of us.

The early season rains have brightened our moods and are, of course, a source of happiness for us all. Another source of happiness is news of or even the attendance at a wedding.  I had the privilege of attending one with much happiness (dancing and singing) just the other night.  My wife, politely (of course) asked me how the wedding was (and you already know).  She then preceded to tell me about how all the kids went to to bed on time, without any arguments, and without any extra effort.  The house, she said, was quite relaxed during my absence.

Was it coincidence, then, when I noticed the next day the words on the first song in the Mary Poppins play, where the women sing of liberation: "Men are okay individually, but as a group they're stupid."  In a moment of reflection, I think I heard my wife say the same thing.

True, the wedding night is a source of joy, but one wonders if women marry simply because they don't see a better alternative.  Men, on the other hand, would never think such things about wives.  In fact, we look forward to the wedding night and after, even after when we realise that women don't need to be liberated at all -- they're already boss!

We all take our chances in life, and next week we'll have to take our chance about the weather.  We're getting some indication that rain could return late next week.

Barry Lynn


Monday, November 3, 2014

Weather It Is (Special Weather Statement)

Good Morning:

Our next storm has taken a turn for the worse.  The latest forecasts show that precipitation streamers (or bands) of precipitation will develop this morning and afternoon.  The streamers will first develop up north (in the vicinity of Haifa), and then progress their way southward during the morning.  The rain is forecast to continue into Wednesday.

The precipitation will be convective in nature, and heavy rain with very strong winds can occur during this period.  The rain can create hazardous driving conditions.  The wind can cause damage, and lightning is expected with the strong thunderstorms.  There will likely be periods of sunshine as well, but this isn't unusual during storms of this type.

The inclement (and cold) weather should persist until towards the end of the week, as the trough remains firmly anchored over the eastern Mediterranean.  Temperatures should moderate briefly, but the weather pattern may bring another bout of rain next week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Weather It Is (Some People Like the Rain)

Good Afternoon:

My oldest daughter likes the rain.  Where I came from, people liked the snow. 

I wonder if this is just reduced expectations or if the contrast between summer and winter brings out the finer and more beautiful points of rain.   In fact, my wife said that the drops were dancing on the roof -- and since their "show" arrived in Mar-Chesvan -- this was the first rain.

The weather will take a breather today, but another storm will develop Monday and Tuesday, with the bulk of its rain to fall on Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday.

After this storm passes, we'll enter a period of relative tranquility, or a place where relatively little weather is happening on this side of the Mediterranean.

Looking further ahead, our crystal ensemble ball is cloudy:  there is no clear signal for next week.

Things are far from tranquil elsewhere.  Did you know that the ISIS is continuing to mass-murder minorities in Iraq?  Isn't the American "military" supposed to be preventing this?  We are fortunate not to depend on American Security guarantees, especially in regard to the Jordan Valley.  In fact, one can easily imagine a scenario where any "peace agreement" turns bad, and the world, including the Europeans, will simply wring their hands.

Safety and security starts at home.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Weather It Is (Update to Rain Event)

Good Morning:

Light showers are possible this afternoon.  They will become heavier as evening approaches, and as the storm intensifies and moves towards our direction.

We're still looking at high rain chances into Shabbat, with the possibility of a redevelopment early next week.  It might just rain for a week!

While expected to be substantial, we're still not sure about the total rain amounts. This will probably become clearer later in the day as the storm finally gets organized.

Winds will also be a problem, and they might possibly reach gale force.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Weather It Is (The First Rain; He's No Jack Kennedy)

Good Afternoon:

The debate over whether we had the first rain on the 19th of October (or earlier) will all be academic very soon.

The global ensemble forecast members have come into sharp agreement, and they all indicate rain overspreading the area on Thursday.  The rain is associated with low pressure developing in the "southern" jet stream traversing the Mediterranean sea.  At the same time, a ridge of high pressure will build into western Europe, which will encourage the merging of the southern and northern jet streams, spilling unseasonably cool air southward, and spinning up a potent and prolonged early winter storm.

Rain, heavy at times, will occur through Friday, and rain showers will likely persist on Shabbat.  There are some indications that the storm may linger into early next week as relatively cold air continues to filter southward.

It seems like the stormy weather is also affecting the political relationship between the United States and Israel. It is being reported today that  an "unnamed" American source said of our Prime Minister:


He’s not [Yitzhak] Rabin, he’s not [Ariel] Sharon, he’s certainly no [Menachem] Begin. He’s got no guts.”

While each had admirable qualities (especially Menachim Begin),  Menachim Begin gave away the Sinai which has turned into a terrorist haven. Yithak Rabin brought us Oslo and thousands of deaths and injuries, while Sharon removed Israeli towns from Gaza, bringing us tens of thousands of missiles and mortars.

Here is my response: Barack Obama is no George Washington. If he was, there would be no constitution to defend.  He is no Abraham Lincoln.  If he was, "his" people would still be slaves. He is no Franklin Roosevelt.  If we was, we'd all be Nazis or dead.  And, of course, he is no Jack Kennedy.  You might say he is Andrew Jackson, who wasn't good for his "word"  (he tore-up previously agreed upon treaties, dispossessing and displacing Native Americans).  He is, unfortunately, Barack Obama.


Barry Lynn


Monday, October 27, 2014

Weather It Is (Getting Organized)

Good Evening:

For the last several days temperatures have been dropping in the upper atmosphere (500 mb) level, indicating the development of a "trough" in the circulation pattern.  The eastern side of this trough is associated with rising air (i.e., "divergence" aloft).

Now, it looks like this trough will spin up an area of low pressure, and there is broad ensemble agreement that rain should overspread the area on Thursday and continue into Friday.  Beyond this time period, there is much less certainty.  The rain may stop and become intermittent, or it might continue at a heavier rate.

Looking mid next week, temperatures should warm up a bit, but there is a chance that storminess will build back in by the end of the two week period.

I am glad that our Prime Minister says that we should build in Jerusalem, just like the French build in Paris, etc.  However, how does he justify building outside of Jerusalem, where Israel does not claim sovereignty?  Why do we persist in a situation where much of the land we have built on or wish to build on -- in the "West Bank" -- we don't claim for ourselves, but maintain only military rule. No wonder the "world" is confused.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Weather It Is (This Week's Weather)

Good Evening:

We've got one more day of mild weather before the winds before a trough of low pressure begins to build over the eastern Mediterranean.

The trough will build slowly through the week, and eventually strengthen enough to bring our first steady (and hopefully) prolonged period of rain by weeks end.

With the moisture will come steadily lowering temperatures, so it will feel like fall weather again.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Weather It Is (Nimble Mosquitos and Mastodons)

Good Morning:

We've got one more nice day on tap today, and then the weather will become -- well less nice.

A trough of low pressure will begin to build over the eastern Mediterranean, and with it more fall like weather will drop temperatures.  The system should also bring more clouds and moisture.  However, we can't say with any certainty whether it will rain.  Our ensemble forecasts show the possibility of rain on just about any day, but the probability is not high.

It is one thing when 10 out of 10 people in a room get up and say tomorrow the sun will rise, but when only one person is willing to be so bold -- one wonders if it will happen.

Fortunately, most of us would agree that as long as the rooster crows, the sun will rise.

As a scientist, I prefer to be scientific, both about the weather and life in general. And so it happens, that I am always ready with an excuse when my wife asks me why I don't feed the kids first.  Or, at least, why I find it so hard to feed them before taking a few bites myself.  The answer: you never know when one might have to get up, grab ones I-Phone, and zap a mastodon for the next meal. I am very sure of my answer. Of course, the same answer is given even when more than few bites are consumed.

The rain bring the blessing of new life, and it also brings mosquitos.  One such mosquito kept me up at night.  I am very sensitive to that annoying buzzing sound, while my wife -- bless her -- can sleep right through the noise.  Several times I leaped out of bed to smack this mosquito, but he was just too nimble.  He always escaped.  Yet it was that he returned to the well once too often.  At 5:01 A.M, I got him, and then a wipe to clean the blood off the ceiling (was it mine?).

And here is the lesson for all those men out there.  This mosquito wasn't so nimble after his large meal, in fact he wasn't very nimble at all, and now he isn't anything at all.

I can only conclude that the Mastodon excuse just doesn't hold water; after all, who can really hunt Mastodon on a full stomach?

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Weather It Is (Late Night Intimacies)

Good Evening:

In the next 36 hours it is going to get a lot warmer, perhaps 10 C warmer.  However,  changes are afoot, and they are coming here.

After the passage of a cool front Wednesday night, surface temperatures will start heading downwards.  At the mid and upper layers of the atmosphere, temperatures will fall off even more rapidly, creating the potential for unstable and rainy conditions.

However. the future is cloudy, and we really can't definite any particular rain event during the next week or so, other than to say that we should be rain free until the end of the week. Rain amounts will depend on just where a trough of low pressure forms in the eastern Mediterranean.  Too far to the west, and we'll probably end up more dry than wet.

Late night (about 4 A.M) is sometimes a time of unexpected intimacy, especially if the dog happens to wake up both sleeping slumberers.  It was at that time that I remarked to my wife that tomorrow (the 19th -- past) would bring our first rain (and it did rain -- about 5 mm). To which she replied: "we already had the first rain."  I mentioned that I knew that it rained the night of Sukkot eve, but that it wasn't very hard.  She responded that she had read about a heavy, but short rain in Tel-Aviv a few days previous and that this was the first rain.  When I protested that it hadn't rained here, she said that this didn't matter -- there was nothing more to discuss and that I should go back go sleep.

The next morning I was left wondering: if a rain shower falls somewhere else, and no meteorologist sees it, did anyone get wet?

Barry Lynn


Saturday, October 18, 2014

Weather It Is (The First Rain)

Good Evening:

The wife says that she is unsure, but we at the Weather It Is weather center (or WII WC, for short) are pretty sure that tomorrow's storm will bring our first rain.

A storm has formed near Cyprus and will move eastward passing inland to our north.  Cold air streaming in behind the storm will keep a low pressure trough situated over the eastern Mediterranean, and with it will come a steady rain to cover most of the country by the time all is said and done.  The rain should start tonight over the north and around morning over the center.

The stormy weather will be followed by mild fall weather for the rest of the week.

It is reassuring that we're getting our first rain in October, and that the weather has been seasonably cool.  This compares to last year when warm weather was the rule until we used the same ruler to measure the snow amounts, only to lose the ruler in the drawer until March (when it finally rained again).

Here's hoping for a good rainy season, with a bit of snow thrown in for good measure.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 13, 2014

Weather It Is (Is That A Forecast?)

Good Evening:

After an absolutely outstanding day (or is it two?), we're headed into more "wintry" like weather.
Cooler air near the surface will advance at a more rapid pace than the last couple of days and will combine with a mid-and upper-level system to create the potential for thundershowers again on Wednesday and Simchat Torah.

This system is a bit stronger than the last one, but it's not the type to produce a general rain -- hence, predicting rain at any location and time is really a "crap-shoot."

The general instability in the weather pattern and resulting uncertainty in the forecast will carry over to late this week (Shabbat) and early next week.  Right now, the global ensemble (GEFS) shows a 30 to 40% chance of our first significant rain Shabbat and Sunday.  On the other hand, the weather may just warm up a bit and make us wonder if winter's advance has stalled.

If you'd like a good day's fun and learning experience, go over to Susyia (it is south on Route 60, about 40 minutes from the Gush Etzion Junction).  Susyia was a Jewish town that existed for many years after the destruction of the second Temple, and then inexplicably the population left.  The city remained buried until a relatively short time ago, and is definitely worth seeing and partaking in the activities at the site. At least during Chol HaMoed, there is a Kosher restaurant type food to be bought.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Weather It Is (Lost in the Wind)

Good Evening:

My wife insists that our house was the epicentre of the severe storm that affected our area last night.  While it was short on rain, there was plenty of lightning and wind.  In fact, the roofing material ("scock") flipped over and then flew off into the distance.  If you find it, please return.

Another low pressure disturbance will impact our area tonight into tomorrow afternoon, bringing the possibility of showers.  Our forecast model doesn't show appreciable rain, but the global models (that use only a convective parameterization -- which reflect the general instability of the atmosphere) continue to show areas of light rain popping up during the forecast period.

The cool weather will persist until the end of the holiday, when a more significant wave of low pressure may bring more steady rain.  This should be followed by a bit of a warm up early the following week.

Modim L' Simcha,

Barry

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Raincoats)

Good Afternoon:

The latest Global Forecast model run shows a greater likelihood of rain showers (possibly heavy) heading our way later this afternoon and evening.  Already, strong convective storms are seen out over the Mediterranean sea, with lighter rain down over the south.

A strong upper level system will develop over our area and build a trough of low pressure during the next week.  Hence, there will be periodic chances of rain, including on Shabbat.

Rain may also fall over the Arava desert down to Eilat, and in the area of Dead Sea, potentially creating flooding conditions.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 6, 2014

Weather It Is (Sukkah Showers)

Good Afternoon:

The temperatures are on the rise -- at least until Erev Sukkot.

At this time a storm will slowly form over the eastern Mediterranean. This will have two impacts on our weather as we sit down to our Sukkah meal: temperature and winds.  Temperatures will fall off by about 10 C from highs in the 20s to low 30s to high in the low 20s.  Winds will also increase, so Sukkah coverings will need to be carefully placed and secured.

There is some moisture with this system, but not as much as hoped for.  Showers will be possible during Shabbat and Chol HaMoed as temperatures continue to cool at upper levels, but no heavy rain is expected at this time.

We see a slight temperature moderation upwards as we near the end of the Hag.

Hag Sameach,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Weather It Is (Sukkah Rain and Wind)

Good Evening:

There is palatable relief among the "people" has Yom Kippur comes to an end, and we all hope to have been sealed into this year's "Book Of Life."

We had one of the most beautiful weather Yom-Kippurs in quite a while -- in fact that I can remember. It was exquisitely sunny with deep blue skies.

The forecast for this winter season is above normal rain amounts, and already the weather maps are indicating a turn towards a more "winter" type later this week.  The Global Ensemble Forecast System model is indicating a sharp downturn in temperatures as we head into Sukkot.  It should also turn very windy, so you'll need to take extra care and batten down the Sukkah hatches.

Their is a strong potential for rain late Friday, greater than 50%.  The amounts could be substantial, but right now we're too far out to say anything differently.

I read that the United States rejects the equality between ISIS and Hamas -- I guess this is because Hamas just seeks to kill us (for now), while ISIS has turned its messianic wrath on other nations as well.  This is a time of potential change for the Jewish people -- starting off a new year.  Let's hope the world will not fall further backwards into barbarity.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Weather It Is (Everyone Said)

Good Evening:

Everywhere I went everyone said: "Tut-Tut it looks like rain," as they scooted from place to place.  The question was even raised: "should I bring my rain jacket to school?"

Well the day did bring some rain, but it wasn't very wet.

Temperatures will moderate a bit over the next few days, but remain comfortable for the Yom Kippur fast.  The European Union has issue a Yom Kippur related proclamation: "the EU no longer recognizes fasting beyond the 1967 border -- no credit will be given for doing so. The EU encourages anyone planning on fasting for the Jewish Holy Day to do so only in recognized Israel -- and not in the Palestinian Territories."  The Israel Prime Minister responded:  "Obviously, they do not understand that fasting can be done anywhere, on a boat, on a plane, on a train, politics not withstanding."

Fortunately, our weather knows no bounds, and we can safely say that some weather arriving for the start of Sukkot may just bring a shower, to be followed by a warming trend thereafter.  The "rain-storm" will be trying to form near Cyprus as Sukkot arrives.  We'll wish it luck and to all else an easy and meaningful fast.

Gamar Chatima Tova,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Weather It Is (That First Storm)

Good Evening:

After a topsy-turvy period of weather  (did you pray for cool weather?),  cool fall air will dive southward tomorrow, bringing with it rain to the north and the possibility of showers in the centre.  The period of cool weather will last into Tuesday morning before temperatures moderate a bit.

Looking farther ahead, we see temperatures cooling off at 500 mb, while remaining a bit tropical at 850 mb. This could lead to some instability related rain showers.

There could even be a heavier shower in the Arava, so stay tuned if you're heading south for some hiking during the next day or two.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Weather It Is (Headed Into Next Year)

Good Afternoon:

Relatively warm temperatures are blanketing this part of the world.  The warm air is courtesy of high pressure situated over northern Africa, resulting in a clockwise flow of warm southwesterly air.  Of course, "old-timers" will tell you we've had worse at this time of year (and we have).

The high pressure will remain in place and influence through Saturday, so air conditioners will probably get a good work out until then.  Still, today may be the hottest day of the period.

The morning I arrived bright and early at Rami Levy was not nearly so warm; in fact the temperatures were quite pleasant.  And, I was pleased to drive right in and have my pick of the parking spaces -- what luck!  I strode quickly to the cart station, "paid" my 5 NIS, and continued, but with shorter strides to the entrance (being careful not to bump my shins on the food cart).

I was the first one in, but I had to wait half an hour (until 7:30, opening time).

Still, it was a rewarding experience in more ways than one.  I arrived home within the hour, my sleigh full of new New Year's items, and quickly unpacked and put away all of the perishables.  But then, a strange thing happened: I felt my heart grow two sizes larger and so before the morning was finished I put away every last item, from jars to bags, and other odd shaped things.

I even cleaned up the back yard and front yard, hopefully completing the process of Teshuva (and, apparently, exempting myself from needing to go to Slichot services anymore).  It's good that I did because a rather potent storm should end our period of early fall warm weather. Right now, it is forecast to bring rain up the far north, but we'll keep an eye on this storm to see if it might shift south a bit.

In any case, next week looks to be a good deal cooler than this week's heat.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Friday, September 19, 2014

Weather It Is (Still Time)

Good Afternoon:

The breeze is still quite fresh, while fair-weather clouds dot the mostly blue sky.

We're hoping to see some rain greet the new year, but only light-scattered showers are possible as fall cool air settles in from the northwest..  A good rain would turn the countryside green, but this is not likely.

One place full of green in the English country side.  We had the privilege of watching Jane Austin's "Pride and Prejudice."  Apparently my wife learned a new word: "appreciation."  While not referring to me as "Mr. Lynn," she did say that she would appreciate it if I would clean half the counter.  I was so shocked I almost forgot to do it.

On the other hand, not all is well.  Thinking that now (still a few days from the New Year) would be a good time to head over to "Rami-Levy Supermarkets" I made my intention known to Miss Geveret.  Her reply: "it's too late to do 'Teshuva' (repent)."

I beg to disagree: there is still time to take that first step towards a better me.

Yet -- as mentioned -- we still can't get a good fix on the weather as we move past Rosh Hashannah, other than that a slight warming trend appears likely.  Other Mr. Husbands must decide quickly to head over to Rami-Levy while there is still time.

Shabbat Shalom/Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Weather It Is (A Flirtation Comes To An End)

Good Evening:

Our brief flirtation with summer will end tonight as much cooler air is ushered in on westerly winds.

Tomorrow will be about 10 degrees colder than today; one can already smell the change in the air -- as the wind begins to rustle the trees in its refreshing breezes.

Looking further ahead shows the likelihood of a slight warming trend for the New Year, but nothing can be said without much certainty except that the New Year will not immediately bring a cleansing rain.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Monday, September 15, 2014

Weather It Is (Just A Slight Chance)

Good Morning:

The latest forecast shows just a small chance of light showers.

However, be careful if it does shower -- the roads can become very slippery as the oil rises to the road surface.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Weather It Is (Showers of Repentance)

Good Evening:

Some early fall (season) instability will arrive tonight and tomorrow.  The wind will blow and it might even feel like a light jacket is called for.

The forecast models show some light rain showers, with the highest probability along the coast and in the central mountains.

Now that the African National Congress of South Africa has decided to brand us an "Apartheid" state, I have instructed our meteorological workers to make sure that any (or our)  rain clouds do not cross the border into the area of Palestinian Authority.  I really feel that if various segments of the world population would prefer to falsely accuse us of this or that "crime against humanity" that we really ought to take advantage of it -- and the weather is as a good of place to start as any.

Looking ahead, we see a a week's worth of cool fall weather and then as the New Year arrives the weather pattern shows a split -- where the weather could turn relatively cool or warm.  It is obvious that we are in a period of weather repentance, where we all need to ask ourselves: were you happy with the weather you had?  Or, perhaps, you felt that the weather on your neighbour's side of the fence was a bit better than your own.

I am sure that with proper introspection (from all) that the weather pattern will stabilise and I will again be able to predict the weather with much greater certainty.

Barry Lynn

Friday, September 5, 2014

Weather It Is (Men Must Rest)

Good Afternoon:

It is a tad warm out there.  However, temperatures will be dropping  several digits from this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon.  In fact, Shabbat should be one of those beautiful weather days one wishes would come around more often.

Speaking of Shabbat, I was accused on committing a "grave" sin sometime ago.  I was hesitant to write about it, being quite a bit embarrassed.

To appreciate the context, one has to understand that when it comes to completing a task, women have the tenacity of a bull-dog,  the persistence of a cat, and the steadfastness of an ant.  Men, in comparison, are like hares. They engage in frenetic activity, but must rest often.

It happened that after a night with too few hours of sleep, an arduous morning of davening, and a long walk around Efrat, I set it my task to set the Shabbat table.  It was hard work: the table is not close to the kitchen, and moving a fork or two, a plate or two, or even some condiment or other was not an easy task.  I rested often, stopping to read the newspaper.

After one of my breaks, I happen to get up (I had more energy because I had almost completed my efforts), when my wife appeared.  And then it happened: I was "accused" of getting up to "work" because I had heard her coming down the stairs.

Of course, none of these accusations would have flown had my wife truly understood (or it is appreciated?) the crucial differences between men and women when it comes to finishing even such a simple task as setting the Shabbat table.

Since then, I have managed to surpass these difficulties, helped out by a rather stagnant weather pattern that brings neither too hot nor cool weather -- nothing to raise the ire.  Looking ahead, we see a slight increase in instability over the next two weeks, but nothing to get bent out of shape about.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Weather It Is (Wives Are Wiser)

Good Morning:

It is said that women are wise, wives are wiser, and young ladies are on their way to wisdom. Thus, it was with much appreciation when I heard from my wife and youngest daughter that winter had arrived, and that winter showers were on their way.  Not understanding that women (and even young ladies) can be impulsive,  I dutifully reported this weather-scoop to you.  True, our forecast maps did show some light rain, but a less emotional hand would have also held the wheel a little more firmly, tacking with the wind -- which was set to move the developing clouds into the late summer/dry desert air. Hence, a more wise word to the wind would have been: winter's here, but any rain drops will probably evaporate before reaching the ground.

Of course, men like to think that they are wise too.  In fact, many men equate money with wisdom, without considering how much more successful women just might be if they spent as much time "making a living" as men -- rather than ensuring that the next generation will know how to spend their money and time wisely and kindly.  If you're not convinced, a couple of examples will follow.

After falling on a slippery floor -- on her head, and being saved by the gallant, courageous, and intrepid Dr. Glick, my wife returned home with 11 stitches.  Being the wise person she is, she noted that the best way to treat accidents is to prevent them, and she sent me out for a floor mat.  Now, she was standing in front of the meat sink, so I immediately dashed out of the house, and was pleased to be able to purchase a spanking new (and quite ethestic ) floor mat from "Big-Deal" Efrat.  Returning truimphantly  to my house with this purchase, she reminded me that we have two sinks, to which I could only reply that she made her request standing in front of one.

Another example:  I can be in the kitchen washing the dishes, emptying the dishwasher, cooking, or preparing school food, when the wife arrives.  These, one might think, are very useful things. Obviously, I am really not that smart, as I inevitably am told that I am in her way, and what am doing there at that time in particular, anyway.  A truly wise man would know when the wife is about to arrive and take appropriate action.

I will -- for a first -- wisely end here, but mention that there is absolutely no weather expected for the next two weeks. If expectations are not met, I'll let you know.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Weather It Is (The Weather Knows)

Good Evening:

It is said (or at least thought) that the weather knows the calendar date -- as the sky takes on a more winter appearance.  In fact, my youngest daughter even concurs.

As I write, relatively cool fall air is streaming southward and will overspread our area tonight and tomorrow (Monday), reaching its peak (cool level) Tuesday morning.  Moisture amounts will also be on the increase as the night progresses, and light rain will break out over coastal areas, possibly spreading into the centre as well.

On the other hand, we've heard this story before -- a possibility of rain.  But that was summer, and now we're heading into fall, and "like" I wrote: "The Shadow Knows."

Speaking of what we should know, you might have heard that we won the war.  In fact, we're being told this so strongly we might even come to believe it (unless you hold by the maxim: ""The lady doth protest too much, methinks"). Yet, if we go by my definition: we didn't win because there was still someone (actually a lot of someones) on the the other side who stood up and said they won.  This bothers me, and apparently I am not alone in being bothered.

Despite the supposed ending of the war, we are still selling our special umbrellas: they can be used to fend off the rain or (God forbid) something worse.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Weather It Is (Win Won For the Gipper)

Good Evening:


The weather will be warming up a bit as low pressure to our east strengthens.

However, it won't strengthen too much, or possibly to strongly. Hence, it will feel hot, but not oppressively hot.

Otherwise, we can look ahead and see the more summer-like weather holding on for a week or so.  Beyond that we see very little.

I've noticed that many of our political and media leaders cannot see beyond the horizon. For example, one newspaper editor wrote:

"But only if Hamas believes its survival is in danger, its capacity to live to fight Israel another day in doubt, will it call a long-term halt to the fire."  

One has to wonder: why would we want a long term ceasefire when with a bit more effort we can finish them off.

Why are we afraid to win!?

I say our goal needs to be to win.  Maybe our victory will inspire others to go out and win the war against the evil Islamic ideology, and something good just may come of it.


Shabbat Shalom,


Barry Lynn

Friday, August 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Mr. Ban says)

Good Morning:

It's pretty obvious that our weather is going to cool down quite a bit by late tomorrow (Shabbat) afternoon.  But. then, temperatures will head sharply upwards, like a rocket from Gaza, descending slowly thereafter, only to plunge towards unseasonably cool summer weather as we head into the month of Elul.

In fact, we are seeing some instability in the weather pattern, meaning that the weather may be noticing that fall is right around the corner.

This morning we read that one of the Hamas missiles didn't make it very far off the ground. In fact, it exploded, killing at least five people (Hamas or Islamic Jihad members?).  The Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon, was quick to condemn Israel.  "It is a TRAGEDY. yes, a TRAGEDY, for Hamas and the Palestinian people.  Had the Israelis agreed to the Hamas terms for a ceasefire, then none of this would have been necessary.  Hamas would have no reason to fire missiles,  and I would not be standing before you today, with this sad, sad news."

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry
P.S. I've been asked, so I must say:  Mr Ban's quote is sarcasm (on my part) -- but unfortunately, probably, true.

Friday, August 1, 2014

Weather It Is (Cease-Friers)

Good Afternoon:

While one might have expected the weather to cool off -- following the ceasefire agreement -- it was not to be.  It might be better for our leaders to pay more attention to the weather forecast, than try to make any intelligent decisions on their own.

It seems that they agreed to a "cease-fire," with drastic results.  Hamas took advantage of the break in hostilities to kidnap one of our soldiers; in the process, we became (for the umpteenth) time "cease-FRIERS."

Along with the dithering, comes the staging of troops just outside Gaza, where many have died just sitting, while being serenaded with mortar-showers.

The weather will cool off again in a few days.  Time is passing, and we're losing the war because we're not trying to finish it in victory.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Weather It Is (More than Mischief)

Good Afternoon:

The weather patterns continue to oscillate in an early fall -- rather than summer -- pattern.

In fact, today's weather is really phenomenal. The temperates are mostly in the 20s (at least in the central mountains) and there is a cooling (and fresh) breeze.

Of course, the fresh breeze is good for getting extended flight times on any rockets fired from Gaza.  Hopefully, this won't be an issue too much longer -- provided that we arrive at the end point of this conflict.

For those of you familiar with "The Cat in The Hat:" After making quite a mess, we read "And then he was gone with a tip of his hat," leaving the two kids to wonder what just happened and what would happen next: "Then our mother came in, and she said to us two, 'Did you have any fun?'  Tell me. 'What did you do?'.

And Sally and I did not know what to say. Should we tell her the things that went on there that day."  Should we tell her about it? Now, what SHOULD we do?  Well... What would YOU do, if your Mother asked YOU?"

I can imagine that this is how our Prime Minister felt upon receiving President Obama's demand for an immediate ceasefire, but in this case,  it was the President (who may have the best of intentions), but whose decisions and policies are really no better -- if not worse in result than the  "Cat in the Hat."

Of course, the kind and type of mess he and Secretary Kerry would like to make would only need to be cleaned up with the sweat and blood of our children.  The media may call them "soldiers," but they are our children.

Don't expect the first couple of weeks in August to bring any summertime weather.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Weather It Is (A Flash and Rumble)

Good Evening:

Just a follow-up.

I meant to mention that the blog was inspired by a conversation I had with a fellow neighbour in Efrat. Interesting that just this morning, we read that the US warns us against toppling Hamas.


Agency head Michael Flynn warns against the dangers of toppling Hamas, saying what may replace them could be even worse. (http://www.timesofisrael.com/day-20-idf-toll-rises-to-42-hamas-breaches-truce-resumes-rocket-fire-kerry-heads-home/)

To put things in perspective, think of this joke.  What do you call a person who eats vegetables, answer: a Vegetarian.  What do you call a person who eats people, answer: an humanitarian.  The US presents its policy as being humanitarian in nature, or for democracy, but really, it is just about interests.

With increasing atmospheric stability, the skies should free themselves of any clouds and the sun should beat down like a summer sun.  Yet, the temperatures are not really all that warm, and it is almost possible to stand outside under the baking summer sun and ask yourself: is this really summer?  Who turned down the thermostat?

With increasing atmospheric stability, it is also possible to hear far away rumbles of thunder -- I mean artillery.  And, with a flash of insight I finally understood why Mr. Obama/Kerry keep pushing us into a ceasefire.  In fact, if you look back over the years, there are many wars that Israel (now we) fought, only to have them end prematurely in a ceasefire, before any real winner was apparent. Imagine how history would have transpired if Germany and Japan had simply agreed to a ceasefire, rather than total surrender.   Well, just think of North Korea and North Vietnam, and think of Hizbollah and Hamas.

Who pushed us into the various ceasefires: The United States.  Why did they do it? Because our interests (total victory) do not always overlap with their own (interests in the Arab world).  Obama/Kerry want us to agree to a ceasefire because they don't want us to defeat Hamas, who are the dependent of Qatar, with whom the US just signed an  $11 Billion arms deal http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-us-openly-at-odds-over-gaza-ceasefire-terms/).  Moreover, if it is not Hamas ,then it is some other Arab country they have relations with.  Don't get me wrong: the US is our ally, but only in the sense where our common interests overlap.

The result is that we are consigned to years of perpetual war.

This is what makes the cabinet's unanimous decision to reject the ceasefire so significant.  It may not be the first time, but it is the most obvious instance of the Israel government (and the Jewish people) standing up and saying "no."  Of course, no country is ever truly independent, but we've taken our first true step forward towards a new and different future.

Tzorot Tovot.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Weather It Is (Missile-Hail and Delta Flights Suspended)

Good Evening:

All Delta Flights to Israel have been suspended.  

Apparently, missile-hail fell from Missile-Storms near the airport.

Better safe than sorry, of course.

Is it ironic that we didn't need to wait to give away Judea and Samaria to close the airport?

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Yesterday's Weather and the Probability of More)

Good Afternoon:

Yesterday was day full of potential.   The atmosphere was quite moist up to 700 mb, and temperatures were conditionally unstable up to about 550 mb.  By conditionally unstable, I mean that a passing perturbation in the atmosphere should and would have been enough to cause a strong convective storm.  Alas, it was not to be.

Radar showed some light showers over the country yesterday, and as for the probability of more weather -- at least of interest -- we don't see any.  True, temperatures will stay relatively cool during the next couple of weeks, but temperatures aloft should be warming up (that is, the atmosphere will be stabilizing).

There was a welcome and cool breeze that sprung up at the burial ceremony for Yuval Haiman.  It seemed to come out of no where, but there must have been a passing tropical shower -- that evaporated and cooled the atmosphere. The cool breeze spoke about the potential of life, to live life like a a flower of our good deeds.  In this case, a potential unrealised.

We think of weather as being about prediction, but it is really about probability.  We may hide the probability when we speak, but no forecast is really useful without a measure of certainty.

I remember that when we left Gaza that there were those (myself included) who said that this would lead to much greater danger for us than before.  I figured that a few missiles-showers would become missile-storms.  In fact, I placed a very high probability on this happening.  Apparently, others lived on a hope.

After all, Hamas as an ideology that is not really about politics or land, it's about the ability and willingness to murder.  The Palestinian issue is, actually, a side-show to their Raison d'être. This is why I find President Obama and Sect. Kerry's idea to return to the 2012 ceasefire agreement so laughable (or sad).  Agreements are between gentlemen; otherwise they have very little value (and are easily broken).  Insanity is doing the same wrong thing over again and hoping that the results will be different (this time). I hope we will not act thus; Mr. Kerry should be shown the door.

While listening to all the tributes to Yuval, I was reminded of a song (The Answer is Blowing in the Wind). There is not much we can do, except to accept the fact that Yuval gave his life so that we could live -- because there are too many people in the world who don't know that too many people have died.

From:http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/blowin-wind

Here's part of the song.

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, ’n’ how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, ’n’ how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind

Barry Lynn