Sunday, February 25, 2018

Weather It Is (Some Showers Then Purim Flowers)

Good Evening:

The weather today was simply unpleasant.  I took a picture of a bare tree in front of a slate grey sky with a hidden sun. I was standing in a strong wind, as wisps of fog and dust floated by.  It really was depressing. I've decided to keep that picture to myself!

In fact, the winter -- in a sense -- has been a disappointment.  It's the warmest winter that I can remember since I came here, and it is not what I bargained for when I decided to move here from the much colder northeastern United States. In fact, the first winter that I decided to stay had a rather large snow at the end of January (I measured 36 cm on the roof of my cousin's home).

Okay, a lot of people don't like snow, and I am sure that they've been very happy with the rains we had and are having this season.  We're actually close to normal for this time of year, which is just what we needed.  Of course, that's normal relative to the past several decades, but quite above average if you look back compared to recent string of  dry winters.

Fortunately, today's dust will move east of our area tonight, and there will be a chance of showers on Monday.  Tuesday should see a greater chance of showers, but the middle of the week should turn warmer and drier on southwesterly winds.  There should be perfect weather for the holiday of Purim.

The weather should continue to warm into next week, when another storm moving our way may bring more dust and then showers and a return to cooler weather.  However, we're far from a chill, and much closer to a warm spring.

In that spirit, I've attached two pictures from daughter's trip to the Golan.  The first shows water flowing in a stream -- and based on our rainfall to date our springs and falls should be full of water again this summer.  The second shows an early bloom to our hillsides, which we hope will be a harbinger of good things to come.

Happy Purim,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Weather It Is (Strong Winds Subside)

Good Evening:

Intense low pressure located over northern Syria and Turkey has brought a stormy end to our rainy weather.  This is the same storm that brought us very strong winds and heavy rain.  Here in Efrat, the winds gusted to 70 km/h last night and then again today as the storm moved away, but intensified.

The strong circulation around the storm also scooped up moisture off the sea leading to dense fog, especially in mountainous areas.  There was also dust over the south, and even a few rain showers.  All in all, the weather was simply unpleasant.

Still, we're thankful for the rain, and the clouds that hid our airplanes from view last night from Gazan anti-aircraft "crews."  We're also thankful for the rain for simply raining (again)-- as many areas are just below or just above normal for the year.

Looking into the coming week, the winds should subside and temperatures should moderate.  It looks like strong southwesterly flow will then bring moisture at the upper levels, which will then bring rain again as the next storm approaches late this week and winds switch into the west moistening the lower levels of the atmosphere.  In fact, it may be rainy until the end of the month.

Right now, the forecast temperatures as we move into the last week of the month are showing a large range of possibilities on the Global Ensemble Forecast. Some are drier and warmer, while some are in between and wet. A few are even chilly or even cold.

I was a bit surprised to come across a transcript of a recent conversation between two folks who spend too much of their time telling us the weather.   I bring it to your attention because it verifies something I've always feared, but never believed.  Read carefully (note: V1 is the first voice in the transcript).

V1: "Hi.  Any good news?"
V2: "As of now blocking up north isn't in our favor."
V2: "The AO [editor's note: Artic Oscillation]  and NAO [editor's note: North Atlantic Oscillation] are also forecast to not be in our favor."
[Editors note: The AO and NAO are indices that measure variations in surface pressure patterns, and their positive or negative values indicate weather the global weather pattern will be zonal (west to east) or meridional (wavy). Ironically, a large positive NAO could induce cold weather here because other factors can then come into play to bring us snow: for details,  see the blog at Jerusalem Weather on this (https://m.facebook.com/notes/jerusalem-weather-forecasts/a-detailed-summary-of-what-brings-major-snow-to-jerusalem/1957311591189265/ .]
V1: "This might be all she wrote [for our winter chances of snow].  But, it did snow 30 cm at Purim time 33 years ago. That's why people always say it snows at Purim time."
V2: "It all depends on position of the blocking ridge over Europe, and this is notoriously hard to forecast."
V1: "So, where is the block now?"
V2: "Very far north over Scandinavia and forecast to go westward towards Greenland." [Editor's note: this type of pattern tends to bring warm air into the eastern Mediterranean as southerly winds develop eastward of the blocking ridge and accompanying trough over Europe.]
V1: "Maybe now that you know [what's forecast] it will move eastward, bring us cold weather???"
V2: "Haha. If I had such power to make what I know happen... There would be 10 feet of snow in Jerusalem."
[Editor's note: V1 calls V2 on this, and the truth comes out -- pay attention.]
V1: "We'd be weathermen!"
[Editor's note: the proof follows:]
V1: "You had a baby, and cancelled the snow that Friday, so you and family could get about for the Brit."
V2: "Yah, That guy was left holding the [wet] bag"
[Editor's note: there you have it.  You might remember that one intrepid meteorologist called, unexpectedly, for a quickly accumulating snow.  Little did he know the nefarious working of the weather-cabal.]

Barry Lynn






Friday, February 16, 2018

Weather It Is (Heavy Rain/Hail)

Good Erev Shabbat:

Heavy rain is expected during the next couple of days.

Because temperatures should be unusually cool at 500 mb, and comparatively warm at lower levels, we can expect very strong storms, including thunder, lightning and hail.

The latest 4 km WRF forecast has the heaviest rains located over the central part of the country, including the Jerusalem mountains.  There is the potential for flash floods in heavier storms.

Showers should arrive towards morning, and continue through the day.  The potentially heavy rain should arrive Motzei Shabbat with the passage of the 500 mb trough (and its very cold air).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Weather It Is (How Long the Rain?)

Good Evening:

Our nice weather will continue into Friday evening, but will take a precipitous turn for the worse.  Of course, for those that like rain and chilly weather, and some hail thrown in, the weather will be perfectly fine.  Considering that our last rain was rather brief, and  it hadn't rained since late January, we should all welcome several days of wet weather.

High pressure will give way to low pressure as we move into Friday evening.  The strong winds ahead of the storm will bring some dust into our area, as well.  Humidity levels should rise substantially Erez Shabbat/Friday evening and rain should arrive Friday night.  Because this storm is arriving from the west, it should bring plenty of moisture, which should occur as plenty of rain in two rounds: Friday night into Shabbat/Saturday afternoon, and Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, with periods of rain continuing into Monday.  The winds should also blow strongly Saturday into Sunday, and unusually cold air aloft should bring thunderstorms with hail.  Showers may persist on Tuesday with continued cool weather. Warmer weather will likely arrive at the end of next week.

Of course all of this rain will probably catch my wife by surprise.  It seems that the weather never goes her way.  For instance, the other day she complained that the forecast called for rain, but there were only a few showers while she wiled the time away at school.  However, as soon as she headed out to do some "kid pick up," it rained steadily and heavily thereafter.

Considering how hard it is for her, it really must be hard for wives who have "just" normal husbands who tell the weather by looking out the window.  Of course, outside of my weather skills, I am pretty normal too.

A few evenings ago, she asked me to add pasta to the soup.  I added the pasta.  There went the soup. Husbands spend their non working hours turning up the stove when they should turn it down, forgetting to turn on the dishwasher or buying the wrong food from the supermarket (you should see how men concentrate while shopping -- doctors, physicists (it doesn't matter what they do) they (unlike women) can't afford to speak with each other.  I've even seen one surgeon staring at a package of rice as if he was doing brain surgery.

However, I think I know the reason for the mishaps of men.  It all starts with what physicists call "zero-point" energy. Zero-point energy is the lowest possible energy state that a quantum field may have.  Since at our basic level, we consist of atoms, etc, we're talking about real things here.  Most relevant to our discussion are the particles that appear our of empty space.  Empty space (or a vacuum) is actually abuzz with virtual particles (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/something-from-nothing-vacuum-can-yield-flashes-of-light/).  These are pairs of particles that appear out of "nothing" and then quite quickly disappear.  Moreover, these particles consist of both normal small particles that we are familiar with from scientific literature (or school classes) and anti-particles (e.g., an electron vs positron), or some might say normal matter and anti-matter.
If you want to learn more read the excellent book: "How to Teach Quantum Mechanics to Your Dog," by Chad Orzel.

So, how does this relate to husbands?  Basically husbands both do good deeds and misdeeds, and they usually come in pairs.  In other words, their deeds are like virtual particles.  If you look hard enough -- and wives do look hard -- you can see them, but then you'll see the other deed that cancels out the first.  So, just when she wants to say good job, she must hold her tongue.

I suppose that wives stay married because they have hope that one day our good deeds will out weigh our misdeeds. Of course, this may be the day that she calls the store and ask them to "beam" over the groceries and tells her husband to come home.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Weather It Is (Warm It Is)

Good Evening:

High pressure anchored over northern Africa will continue to pump warm, but dry air our way over the next few days.  As it slowly progresses northward, dust levels will continue to increase, and temperatures will warm into the mid 20s even in the higher elevations.  Dust concentrations may even become dangerous to our health on Friday or Shabbat,  prior to a change to cooler, if not colder weather to follow.

Motzei Shabbat (Saturday night) will be quite mild, but winds will switch to the west and northwest and our temperatures (and some might say our weather) will start a precipitous downward trajectory that will eventually remind us that it's winter.  Moisture arriving with the cold air may also bring showers or even periods of rain from Sunday into at least mid-week.

Of course, this is Israel, and we live in a southern Mediterranean climate, so cold isn't really cold, and wet is hardly ever white.  Still, it's good for the plants and trees (including those that bear fruit) to have at least a few more weeks of normal winter weather. They need the cold to prepare themselves for spring, which will hopefully bring new growth and new fruits. In fact, if they don't receive enough chill hours then blossoming  can be delayed or not occur at all.  It can even happen that the female flowers on a tree will bloom at a different time than the male flowers, which is sort of like going on a date but getting the time or even day wrong.  So, we should be happy that winter is scheduled to return.

In fact, my guess would be that until this week -- although our temperatures have not been particularly cold at night -- that our plants have been building up chill hours just fine.  The reason is that chilling hours are optimal for plants between 37 and 45 degree Fahrenheit or about 3 to 7 Celcius (see: http://fruitsandnuts.ucdavis.edu/Weather_Services/chilling_accumulation_models/about_chilling_units/).   Plants can still "chill-out" so to speak if temperatures reach up to 12 Celcius, but above about 18 C they lose chilling hours. Moreover, if temperatures get much below 3 Celcius, plants don't gain any chill hours.  So, perhaps, our winter temperatures have been just right.

Depending on plant type, fruiting plants and trees need between 200 and 800 hours (see: https://extension.msstate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/publications/p3067.pdf).  If we've had optimum chilling nights since December, then we've already had close to 600 cold hours.

By the way, if you don't think that cold hours are important, and that fruiting trees need to bloom on time, then take my own situation as an example.  The first night I met my wife we had agreed to meet at the "Off the Square" restaurant.  I arrived on time and waited dutifully (but with expectation) for my date to arrive.  The seconds clicked off my watch and a half hour passed.

Then a miracle happened.  I called my wife's to be mother and spoke fluent and understandable Hebrew.  I don't think this has happened again (that's why she speaks English to me unless she's angry).  Her mother hung up and made a quick phone call.  My poor wife to be was waiting for me too, but she was waiting in the wrong place.  Not realizing that the restaurant had moved, she figured that it was time to head home.  True, this was more a problem of space, rather than time, but another moment (in time) and we might not have met -- but her phone rang and it was her mother telling her that I was waiting outside, accumulating chill hours in the hope that spring would soon come.

That's a bit sappy, but true.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Weather It Is (Break Out The Ice)

Good Evening:

Global warming or not, I haven't found anyone yet who can remember it being so warm in early February. Of course, we're just at the beginning of a week of unusually warm temperatures.

A ridge of high pressure (or warmer temperatures) with a clockwise flow of winds will continue to build northward over our area.  This is bringing warm springtime air from over Africa into our area. That means warm temperatures in the 20s, dry air, and increasing amounts of dust.  It also means some high clouds as well, as there is a moisture stream from off the Atlantic Ocean and then northeastward across Africa.

The very warm temperatures will create a lot of confusion.  People will have to stop and think about what to wear, dogs may soon stray from their yards, the trees may start to bud, and some insects may buzz.

Yet, the forecast for the end of the week is indicating a return to cooler temperatures, if not a bit of a winter chill.  However, it might just as well stay on the warm side.  Other than an increase in clouds, we can't really say if late this week or early next week will bring a return to rainy weather or not.

I can understand if my female readers find this a bit perturbing, and I appreciate if those of the male persuasion find this a bit annoying, but I must say don't blame me -- blame the technology.  While we might hope that we can see with any real accuracy what the weather will be more than a week from now,  for the most part it really isn't so.  For instance, about a week plus in the past I was told that the Climate Forecast Systems model (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) was indicating that this week would be very, very cold (if not snowy), and it wasn't alone among the medium range forecast models.  One could argue, though, that if the long range forecast indicates a lack of uncertainty just a week in advance that it would be unlikely for certainty to suddenly rain down from the skies (others might disagree).  In fact, the only time I can remember being able to accurately forecast about 10 days in advance was prior to the giant snowstorm of December 2013.  In this case, though, the atmospheric signal or forcing must have been so large that other uncertainties in the forecast were overwhelmed.  This, though, is very rare.

What is less rare is my inability to communicate with my cat.  My relationship with my cat improved after a visit from my mother who -- when noticing my annoyance with the cat -- reminded me that my  cat is -- just a cat.  Since then, I have expressed greater understanding for the things she does, my annoyance level is down, and we are actually enjoying our relationship.

Still, the most important reason our relationship has improved is because of this device.  It is a translation device.  I used it at a recent conference regarding the establishment of a new center for studying ways to improve our civil defense (https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/publications/Call_for_bids/most_rfp20170815). 

For the first time, I was really able to follow what was being said, and the voice in the device was just as pleasant, if not more, than the one that guides me on my way with Waze.

I obtained permission to take it home and I and my cat have been using it ever since.  Actually, really my cat is the one who benefits because I can now understand if "Meow" mean food, scratch, or open the door.

Of course, who really cares about cats, and I have to admit that when my wife heard about this her first response was: "this is neat!" Her second response was: "where can I get one of these?"

I saved her the trouble, and now we have a lot less trouble.  Here are some key phrases (and explanations where needed) that women say and men need to understand.

1) "The garbage is full" --> the machine warbles: "take out the garbage."

2) "The house is a mess" --> the machine warbles: "straighten up the living room."

3) "So and so needs to come home an hour from now:" --> "you go pick her up."

These are pretty simple things to understand, and sometimes I catch them myself.  The main problem for men is that expect the wife to follow each statement with a solution (for instance, "you will go...") and when they don't men think the problem is already solved (that is, she will go).

Heres another that most men miss.  Wife says: "I am really tired." Man wants to say: " perhaps you will go to bed early."  Machine answers: "you look really tired." She doesn't want a solution to being tired, she needs sympathy. Wife says: "I had to change three diapers just this past hour." Man wants to say: "I changed 4 diapers last evening, and two the previous Tuesday." Machine says: "that must have been really hard."

Now for the men.  The husband says: "I really worked hard today."  Wife wants to say: "I am also tired."  The machine says: "You do work hard.  I can really appreciate why you are so tired." Man says: "I didn't work today, but I painted the house"  Wife says: "You must be really tired, but what about what I needed done?"  Machine says for her: "That's great. You worked really hard.  The house looks great. Thank you!"

The problem here is that the wife expresses her emotions (in our last example she is worried about all the things the husband didn't do) and the husband is simply trying to solve problems.  When he finds an obvious one, he jumps on it.   It's even more of a problem when the wife expects the man to answer like any other good (wife) would do, while the man expects the wife to answer him like any other (good) husband would. This can create a lot of friction, and it did create a lot of friction between my wife and myself until I read the book: "Men are from Mars, and Women are from Venus" by John Gray. Of course, we're not really from different planets, but we are from different worlds.

Lastly, the wives need to understand that when a man is given a task, he won't do it the way she would.  Rather, he will do it, but he will need to rest.  In setting the table, for example, he'll take a few forks and knives over, and a plate or two, but then sit down to read.  He does this because --- because he is a man and it's hard for him to do this kind of work, especially after a hard day of sitting at a computer.  He's lucky if he gets back up to take another step towards completing the job before his wife sees him resting.

The wife, on the other hand, works during the day, works after work, and works in the evening, and its just part of her running her constant marathon, and she's in shape to do it because she does it all the time.  So she can't understand why he needs to rest.  But he does (it's just his nature and it goes back to the days of hunting Mastodon so it is not going to change).

This reminds me: if men were wives nothing much of consequence would get done. So tell your wife she's terrific and get her something nice to show that she's appreciated.  She may not appreciate it, but at least she'll understand you love her.

Barry Lynn