Thursday, November 30, 2017

Weather It Is (Wild Swings)

Good Afternoon:

Warm winds are blowing, and they are going to continue blowing until the middle of next week.

If one takes a look at the height field of the Global Ensemble Forecast System Model one will note a sharp increase in the height of the 850 mb level, for example.  The height of the 850 mb level depends on the temperature of the atmosphere between the surface and 850 mb.   Similar height increases will be occurring at other "standard" height levels of 700 mb and 500 mb.  The increase in temperatures will help push surface temperatures into the 20s in many locations.  We refer to the weather pattern of warm temperatures as a "ridge."

However, if one is not afraid to look a bit further into the future, then one might be similarly impressed by how far the mighty will fall.   Just like there are waves on the ocean surface, there are waves in the atmosphere and the changing seasons (fall to winter) means that our unusually warm weather will be followed by unusually cold weather -- referred to as a "trough."

The cold air arriving with the advent of the trough should bring a period of rain, although not heavy rain.  Interestingly, there is a 20% chance that temperatures will dive even further, and perhaps near or very close to 0 in the mountainous areas.  The arrival of even colder air would bring a heavier rain, and be a good step towards alleviating our drought.  If the coldest temperatures within the ensemble were to actually occur, it could be cold enough for snow at the highest elevations.

While there may be water drought, there's no drought of new laws in the Knesset.   In the last several months, the Knesset has passed a law legalizing what were illegal outposts, and now they want to pass a law making it illegal for the police to recommend to the prosecutor whether to indict (really the Prime Minister) for apparent criminal activity or not.  There is also a proposal to limit the authority of the comptroller to investigate current malfeasance of government officials, and even to override the supreme court. The government also reneged on its agreement to implement a shared prayer space for non-orthodox Jewish prayer goers.  Of course, there is also the call to fully pardon a soldier who was jailed for manslaughter, even though he is already serving a relatively short sentence.

I realize that there will be those who agree or disagree with the proposed policy changes, or at least wish the law was different.  However, what it seems to me is happening is that the Knesset (led by the "Likud" party) is legislating to make the illegal legal.  In other words, they want to change the laws to give license to break the law.

This has happened before, and happens many times in autocracies.  It also happens when democracies become autocratic as well (see Turkey as a recent example), and is often an important step in moving away from democracy.  The most egregious example with terrible consequences for the Jewish people was Nazi Germany, where everything the Germans did to the Jewish people, from stripping them of employment to murdering them, was anchored in German law.

Do we really want to go down this path?

Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Weather It Is (The Tropics Intermingle)

Good Evening:

There's a moisture stream originating off the coast of Africa, flowing across the continent to the eastern Mediterranean.  The result are some layered clouds, similar to the ones that I grew up with.  These are the clouds ahead of a storm that originated in the Gulf of Mexico, and often brought  a steady rain or snow.  However, it is only rare instances when the flow of moisture from the eastern Atlantic is sufficient to bring us any rain.

Instead, we'll have to wait for a small storm to tap the moisture (and Mediterranean moisture) tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The rain, being of tropical origin, may be locally heavy in south central and central areas.  As the storm passes, temperatures should return to more chilly levels, especially on Tuesday.

Another weak storm will approach on Thursday, and temperatures after warming a bit on Wednesday will cool down again.

Looking further ahead, we see the likelihood that the beginning of December will be on the warm side of fall, rather than the cool side of winter.  No heavy rain systems are yet in site.

Also not in site is any change in the mentality of our neighbors.  The NY Times had an article "Who are the Sufi Muslims and why do extremists hate them?"  It's a strange headline because the problem isn't the hate, it's the fact that their solution to hate is murder (mass murder). 

A few weeks ago, the Israel Defense Forces uncovered a Gaza tunnel extending into Israel territory.  When they destroyed the tunnel, 12 Gazans (including senior commanders) died either directly or indirectly (trying to rescue others).  

After the attack, various Gazan terrorist groups issued statements. 


“This is a massacre,” said senior Islamic Jihad leader Khaled al-Batash.. Another spokesman, Dawood Shehab said that  "the Zionist terror government must realize that we will not hesitate to protect our people and our land,” “ and warned that their group reserved "the option of responding to this aggression.”
When you think about it, this is a very strange response.  They built an attack tunnel into Israeli territory, and then accuse the Israel military of aggression.  How is the attack tunnel protecting their land?
It gets worse: Iran accused Israel of being "bloodthirsty."  
Even more strange: A senior Islamic leader blasted Israel's efforts to thwart the abduction of Israeli soldiers, while Qatar accused Israel of violating "Palestinian rights."
To understand the Palestinians terrorists, etc, one has to first understand the behavior of my pets.
We have two cats.  One forgets that it is not suppose to be on the table. The other remembers that it isn't suppose to be on the couch, and jumps off whenever it hears me on the stairs.  However, there is no guilt or remorse, or embarrassment for getting caught.  Our dog, in contrast,  can't resist the bag of garbage that we've put out over night.  However, when we're angry at her, she actually looks like she feels guilty.
When our neighbors get caught with their nose in the garbage who do they blame? Us. Moreover, they express no guilt or embarrassment.  They are like cats with no sense of right or wrong, but also like a dog that can't resist its nature to do wrong.  They appear to have no moral compass.
Yet they do.   When you study what they say, you realize that they really believe that it is their right to abduct soldiers, blow up buses (or mosques), and kill as many people as they can, and that we (or anyone else who disagrees with their beliefs) have no right to defend ourselves.  Their religion and/or their beliefs give them the "right" to do as they wish, and no one has the right (or even the right to their own lives) to stop them.  It's not just that they kill without remorse, they truly believe that those they kill should make no effort to resist.
How else can you explain such statements that Israel has violated the rights of the Palestinian people?
Barry Lynn






Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Weather It Is (Rain Here And There)

Good Evening:

There's been a steady rain here in Efrat for the last couple of days, and the rain gauge finally feels like it has a purpose.  The thermometer is also working hard -- to stay warm.  Temperatures were below 10 C all day, and the 8 C temperature right now is the lowest all this fall/winter.

There should be periods of showers and/or light rain tonight (Tuesday night), more in areas where clouds have been streaming in a line off the Mediterranean.  These west-to-east lines of precipitation can exist for several hours or more and can lead to localized floods.

Showers should continue on Wednesday and the cold weather should continue into Friday morning, when winds should switch to the south, and temperatures will warm to mild levels.  The warmer weather should peak late Shabbat, but winds backing to the west should bring cool weather until midweek with a chance of showers.

Looking further ahead, the month may end on a very mild note, and December may feel more like October.

I am bit surprised that I was able to write this blog.  You see last night I wrote my blog on the back of a check, and then the bank teller took it and didn't give it back, and I really didn't remember what I wrote.  This was at a bank in Jerusalem, somewhere, but I don't remember where.

Of course, this sounds a bit silly.  What happened was that the dog woke me up at 4 A.M and when I went back to bed I couldn't fall asleep -- except I did (but I thought I didn't).  I spent the next two hours thinking I was up and about, doing all sorts of strange things, only to wake up to the sound of some rain drops (falling on the skylight) -- you can imagine I gave a sigh of relief.

Except that last Monday I really wasn't dreaming when I received an e-mail message that my forecast showed snow for today -- heavy snow.  My son said that he would never live it down, and considered staying home from school.  My wife said I should find a different profession, and my daughter just looked at me, wondering why her father couldn't be like other fathers.

The good news is that I fixed the bug, and the atmospheric model I use was correctly predicting thunder and lightning for later that day.  I hope that the next few days will bring fewer surprises, some quiet, and pleasant dreams.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

Good Evening:

It's over -- that's it -- fall will exit and winter will enter.  Winds will quickly shift to the northwest and usher in the coolest air of the season.  Still, some might still call this fall: in fact, my wife's mother told me that years ago (when she was a young mother) she remembers the rain and cold that greeted each new child -- and this was during fall before the arrival of winter.  Now, it seems like we skip fall and then when winter arrives it doesn't last very long. In any case, winter may be arriving but the long range forecast shows a 70% chance of milder weather returning next week.

This may also explain why my wife doesn't like winter.  On the other hand, I was born at the end of the year and I love winter, so we may have to conduct further study to understand why I like winter and she doesn't.

In any case, although the weather this week will resemble winter more than fall, the hoped for heavy rain will probably not materialize.  Instead, there should be showers on Monday and periods of rain on Tuesday, with moderate rain amounts along the coastal areas and lower amounts in the central mountain areas.  This should still be a nice change from our dry weather, and temperatures should remain chilly through Thursday or even Friday.

For interest sake, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast for next week, and there are actually two forecasts (a 10%) chance that it will get even colder, if not downright cold.

Trying to communicate the weather forecast -- and provide actionable information -- is difficult, especially (as previously noted) this time of year the weather systems are not as strong or as large as those of winter.

Also, only about half the world's population are men, so there is the potential for miscommunication right there.  For instance, some weeks ago (but not too many) I told my daughter that I was off to the kiddish and then for a walk.  Now, she's pretty good at math, and there was a straight line between the house, the kiddish and the rest of the walk (we periodically take together).

I returned about an hour later and she asked me if it was time for our walk.   I looked at her and she looked at me.  I looked at her again, and asked her a simple question: "what did I say?" She repeated what I said so I asked her if she had heard "Kiddish," "House," and "Walk."  No, she hadn't. It made me realize that this was a far too typical example of why men and women should not speak with each other -- it only increases confusion in the world.  We both agreed that I might be correct, but she pointed out that if men and women didn't speak to each other -- really associate in any way -- that there would be far fewer people in the world.

So, there you have it: the greater the number of men and women in the world  the greater the  confusion, and vice versa.  I'm in favor of disorder.  Fortunately, my wife puts up with mine.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Weather It Is (Grumbles)

Good Evening:

There are grumbles all around and they're not coming from the sky.  The grumbles start at the home -- usually in the early morning - with: "where's the rain?"  Every morning I am fielding questions about what to wear.  Shorts today?

When I go out, it gets worse.  I walk down the street and I am simply embarrassed -- if not afraid to hold my head up high.  I hear the comments: "there goes the weatherman..., but where's the weather?"

At some point a person has to stand up for himself and I've decided that now is the time to do so.  I take full responsibility and I am sorry (not if...) that people are upset and their wardrobes are a mess.

I promise to make amends.  First of all, just to remind people of what's coming (about three or four months from now), it's going to get warm, and then warmer still.  I am doing this so that after folks get the weather they really want, they'll appreciate me a little more the next time.

There will have to be a next time because by late Friday a storm is going to blow in and the warmth of the next few days will be soon forgotten.  In fact, the cold will build in over several days and there is a high probability of rain showers early next week.  There is also the potential for our first significant rain, but right now the forecasts are not definitive enough to say either way.

I hope that by the end of next week you will all agree that the past is behind us and all is forgiven.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Weather It Is (That Kind of Weather)

Good Afternoon:

It's been that kind of weather.  The temperatures are mild in the afternoon and nights are cool, and there are sprinkles or drizzle from time to time.

It's a time of change, and because the weather patterns are not very settled, it's a difficult time to forecast much ahead.

For instance, a few days ago it seemed that our first real rain of the season would be upon us at the end of the week. Instead, there will just be showers.

Looking ahead again, we see that the beginning of the week should feel more like early fall than winter arriving at our doorstep.  The warm weather will arrive on southeasterly winds early next week ahead of low pressure, stick around for a day or two (Monday and Tuesday), and then more winter-like temperatures should return on the backside of the low.

As the colder temperatures move in, there is a 50% chance of showers and a 25% chance of a heavier rain.  It's the time when plants and other creatures should be getting ready for winter, so we'll hope for cold temperatures and a heavier rain.

Speaking of creatures -- bad  creatures -- there continues to be in the news more news about predatory men preying on women, and these predators are turning up in far too many places.  In fact, our first accused offender -- Harvey Weinstein -- was most likely just one of many such men.

They say that "power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely," wrote John Emerich Dalton Acton in 1887. He went on to write that: "Great men are always bad men."  It seems to have turned out that many of whom we consider great personalities used their power to obtain favors that were not appropriate.

In a previous column, I pointed out the possible advantage of more modest dress, and noted that it might provide some protection against such men (as such men would more likely spend their energies on those they found more obviously appealing).  Please note, I am not speaking about rapists who commit acts of violence without any regard to their victims looks, personality, etc. My supposition may be true, but given the actual number of those accused it seems the real problem is the relatively large numbers of men engaging in this behavior, and the only practical way to stop this type of behavior is through sanctions against them (i.e, make it not worth their while to engage in this behavior).

On a parting note: corruption is not necessarily gender specific -- although the problem seems rather one sided at the moment.

Barry Lynn


Friday, November 3, 2017

Weather It Is (Maybe Some Rain)

Good Morning:

The latest forecasts are trending away from a moderately heavy rain event sometime late Shabbat into Sunday.  However, yesterday's (Thursday's) global ensemble (GEFS) forecast indicated that the storm would pass close enough to bring a period of rain late Shabbat.  The ensemble forecasts show that temperatures should fall to relatively cold levels both near the surface and aloft, and humidities should approach 100% as well.

This is the storm we spoke about very early this week, but the details are yet to be ironed out. Another storm should move our way early this coming week, but then pass to our north.  The global ensemble indicates that another fall rain storm is possible again late next week.  So, the rain chances keep coming, we just need to cash in.

One reason that it is difficult to forecast for our area is that the storms -- like our country itself - are relatively small compared to storms elsewhere.  Where I grew up, it might be raining or snowing over an area several hundred kilometers -- from Washington D.C to Connecticut. Here, if it rains in Haifa and Tel-Aviv at the same time, we're having an unusual storm.

While our weather may be "small-scale" and our country's size just the same, the people who live hear are like giants. And when they pass away, it is like a redwood tree falling after 1000 years. Here, I speak about Dr. Noam Charatz, who died on Wednesday morning, after falling very ill the previous week. I knew Dr. Charatz before I was his patient because he decided -- at a not young age -- to study for a Masters of Science in Atmospheric Science.  It turned out that he was involved in a project that examined the relationship between intense lightning and heavy rain.  It was quite a success, but it gave us the excuse to end our Dr-patient meetings with a word about the weather, our previous disappointments and our wishes for a rainy and snow winter.

It is ironic that a person who helped so many people died himself unexpectedly.  Yet, it is tragic irony because Dr. Charatz was not your typical doctor.  He was the person you went to see for an ache or pain that needed tending to, but long after that ache or pain was gone, you were still returning to him -- if not for another ache or pain -- but just to stay healthy.  He knew a tremendous amount, and he knew what what to "run" after and what not.

The last time I saw him, though, was another example of his special qualities.  He was the one that diagnosed my illness and sent me for treatment.  Yet, his last words after at the end of my visit were those of optimism -- with a touch of excitement, telling me that the prognosis was very good because I didn't yet have any obvious symptoms.  He was correct, but he didn't just say it, he expressed it in more than words, encouraging me to believe that all would be well. 

Because of his expertise, , DrCharatz treated patient after patient, and then some. His schedule was far too busy, and he invariably fell behind.  Appointments were scheduled every 8 minutes, and then those requiring urgent care were sometimes 2 minutes later. Yet, if one knew (and most did) that he would give each person the utmost and necessary attention, then one brought a phone, a computer, or a book, and one didn't mind the wait -- but was just grateful for his care.

The last time my wife had an appointment, he received a call from the office, saying that people were complaining about the wait.  He was very angry that they seemed to expect him to rush his treatments, and when my wife pointed out to him that he was getting close to pension, he told her that he wasn't sure he would make it.  Foresight or not, he is no longer with us and the voices one hears are those who wonder who can possibly replace a man of hist stature and kindness.  They wonder who can now guard them through the years.

Yet, Dr. Charatz was not only a doctor, he was a father and grandfather, too.  At the Levahia (burial), one could hear from those who spoke that his attention to his family was no less than he gave to his extended family (patients).  

My grandparents also passed away relatively early, and my parents continued much of their adulthood without parents.  While I wasn't old enough to miss my grandparents, I have been blessed to have parents who have followed a different path than their parents.  I am not sure how my parents got by, or how they dealt with their loss. It turns out -- I found out later -- that I ignored it (I guess it was too painful). 

We can't ignore the passing of Dr. Charatz -- yet, it is still too hard to believe -- but we should do more than honor his memory. We should strive to be like him.

Barry Lynn