Good Evening:
Our ferocious storm is winding down, but colder air is coming at lower levels.
Our high resolution forecast indicates some light, mixed rain and snow precipitation tonight. Local slippery conditions are possible if ice pellets cover the road.
Be careful of wet roads, and don't drive through standing water on the road unless you're sure you won't be swept away.
Have a good night,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Weather It Is (Flooding Rains)
Good Evening:
Flooding Rains.
Our latest forecasts shows a very high probability of heavy rains in the Binyamina area late night, moving through Jerusalem early morning. The heavy rain should then be concentrated from southern Jerusalem to just south of Hebron through Thursday, most likely leading to flooding of streams and river beds. Between 50 to 100 millimeters of precipitation is expected. Roads in Gush Etzion may have large areas of standing water. Do not drive through standing water! Run-off from the rain in Gush Etzion will likely flow into the area of the Dead Sea, creating potentially dangerous flooding in this area. Thunder and lightning will accompany the heavy rain.
Snow and Ice: Snow and Ice on the Hermon, where up to a meter of snow is expected (Hermon), with accumulation of snow along the spine of the Golan. Hail in heavy thunderstorms could lead to icing on roads in the central mountains, which should quickly melt. At the moment, snow is not expected to accumulate in the central mountains.
An update should be issued Thursday morning once the storm has completely formed over the Mediterranean, and any possible changes to forecast temperatures and precipitation type will be noted.
Barry Lynn
Flooding Rains.
Our latest forecasts shows a very high probability of heavy rains in the Binyamina area late night, moving through Jerusalem early morning. The heavy rain should then be concentrated from southern Jerusalem to just south of Hebron through Thursday, most likely leading to flooding of streams and river beds. Between 50 to 100 millimeters of precipitation is expected. Roads in Gush Etzion may have large areas of standing water. Do not drive through standing water! Run-off from the rain in Gush Etzion will likely flow into the area of the Dead Sea, creating potentially dangerous flooding in this area. Thunder and lightning will accompany the heavy rain.
Snow and Ice: Snow and Ice on the Hermon, where up to a meter of snow is expected (Hermon), with accumulation of snow along the spine of the Golan. Hail in heavy thunderstorms could lead to icing on roads in the central mountains, which should quickly melt. At the moment, snow is not expected to accumulate in the central mountains.
An update should be issued Thursday morning once the storm has completely formed over the Mediterranean, and any possible changes to forecast temperatures and precipitation type will be noted.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Living Dangerously)
Good Evening:
Are we standing under an icicle ready to fall?
We know that very heavy rains and gale force winds will be arriving tonight and lasting into tomorrow afternoon (with peak winds from mid-day Thursday into the late afternoon).
Thunderstorms are also likely.
At the moment, one storm from Siberia is racing southwestward to catch another storm moving southeastward from Scandinavia. They are expected to merge over southern Turkey and/or just northwest of Cyprus late night before diving southeastward toward us on Thursday.
The latest global ensemble forecast (GEFS) has a position somewhat southward of its previous location for the center of the cold air, and 50 km either way can make a huge difference in the type of precipitation we should receive.
Basically, we're on the edge, waiting to see just how far south the cold air comes, and whether our heavy rain turns to a period of snow or not over the central mountains as Thursday morning moves into Thursday afternoon. In the north, we expect a greater likelihood of snow over the higher peaks of the Galilee.
Stay tuned!
Are we standing under an icicle ready to fall?
We know that very heavy rains and gale force winds will be arriving tonight and lasting into tomorrow afternoon (with peak winds from mid-day Thursday into the late afternoon).
Thunderstorms are also likely.
At the moment, one storm from Siberia is racing southwestward to catch another storm moving southeastward from Scandinavia. They are expected to merge over southern Turkey and/or just northwest of Cyprus late night before diving southeastward toward us on Thursday.
The latest global ensemble forecast (GEFS) has a position somewhat southward of its previous location for the center of the cold air, and 50 km either way can make a huge difference in the type of precipitation we should receive.
Basically, we're on the edge, waiting to see just how far south the cold air comes, and whether our heavy rain turns to a period of snow or not over the central mountains as Thursday morning moves into Thursday afternoon. In the north, we expect a greater likelihood of snow over the higher peaks of the Galilee.
Stay tuned!
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Weather It Is (On a Pin)
Good Afternoon:
Highlight: Heavy rain Thursday into Thursday night. Strong or even Gale Force winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The type of weather we should expect on Thursday in Jerusalem and surrounding mountains will depend on the interaction of a storm moving across Scandinavia today with a storm that is currently moving into western Siberia right now. As the latter slows down, it is forecast to be drawn into the storm moving through Scandinavia tonight, adding its winter fury of frigid air to the combing storm. Together they will plunge thousands of miles southward into the eastern Mediterranean. Just how far south and how much cold air is drawn into the first storm will determine our weather on Thursday.
Yesterday, the new version of the GFS forecast conditions for snow late Thursday into Friday morning. However, the ECMWF did not. Now, each forecast has some variation of the other, but none are really cold enough for an accumulating snow.
We know that there should be very heavy rain Thursday morning into Thursday night, with very strong winds. We know that there is the possibility for hail and wet snow at times, especially towards evening.
But, we don't know just where the axis of the plunging trough will be or just how south it will get. True, we do know that it will be near us, but in the scale of things we're relatively small compared to the amplitude of the storm, and it has a pretty sharp (west to east) wave-length at that. Basically, forecasting weather here is at times like trying to forecast weather on the tip of a pin. Of course, this is what we should be telling you (the reader), but greater certainty may have to wait until tomorrow morning, if that.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Highlight: Heavy rain Thursday into Thursday night. Strong or even Gale Force winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The type of weather we should expect on Thursday in Jerusalem and surrounding mountains will depend on the interaction of a storm moving across Scandinavia today with a storm that is currently moving into western Siberia right now. As the latter slows down, it is forecast to be drawn into the storm moving through Scandinavia tonight, adding its winter fury of frigid air to the combing storm. Together they will plunge thousands of miles southward into the eastern Mediterranean. Just how far south and how much cold air is drawn into the first storm will determine our weather on Thursday.
Yesterday, the new version of the GFS forecast conditions for snow late Thursday into Friday morning. However, the ECMWF did not. Now, each forecast has some variation of the other, but none are really cold enough for an accumulating snow.
We know that there should be very heavy rain Thursday morning into Thursday night, with very strong winds. We know that there is the possibility for hail and wet snow at times, especially towards evening.
But, we don't know just where the axis of the plunging trough will be or just how south it will get. True, we do know that it will be near us, but in the scale of things we're relatively small compared to the amplitude of the storm, and it has a pretty sharp (west to east) wave-length at that. Basically, forecasting weather here is at times like trying to forecast weather on the tip of a pin. Of course, this is what we should be telling you (the reader), but greater certainty may have to wait until tomorrow morning, if that.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Weather It Is (Stormy Weather Update)
Good Evening:
Highlight: Winter storm with strong winds and heavy rain arriving mid-week and lasting into Shabbat. Heavy snow is still possible in the central mountains.
Cold weather should persist until mid-next week, when there is a 40% chance another storm will arrive with additional winter chill.
Some people have told me that my last update was quite a while back (actually on Friday). What they are really saying is: "let's hear it. What's it going to be?"
This morning I received a note consigning "Old-Man" GFS to the dust-bin of history (the current, but soon to be past edition of the Global Forecast Systems model). For quite a while the Old-Man has been indicating the potential for Snow Thursday into Shabbat, while the European models and the "New" GFS (the "parallel" version) have not. This person looked forward to the day when the New would replace the Old-Man, so tales of snow would be more than fairy tales.
I do too, but never discount the wisdom that comes with age. The latest forecasts shows that the European models and the New GFS have moved in the direction of the Old-Man GFS. We can add to that list the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System as well.
Now that a lot more has been said than done, we're back where we were several days ago, but perhaps with greater surety that a storm is on the way. After temperatures rocket upwards tomorrow, they will reenter our atmosphere almost as fast and winter will land upon us again. Strong winds and chill on Tuesday will be followed by rain and strong winds on Wednesday (snow on the Hermon), and there is the potential for heavy snow in the central mountains from late Thursday into Shabbat morning.
However, before you rush out to buy your snow shovels, keep in mind that it is only Sunday and the possibility of heavy snow some five days later is 30%. But, if you do buy that shovel, you have a similar chance of using it again in early march.
On the other hand, it hardly snows here, so these words may just melt off the page in the rainy weather ahead.
Barry Lynn
Highlight: Winter storm with strong winds and heavy rain arriving mid-week and lasting into Shabbat. Heavy snow is still possible in the central mountains.
Cold weather should persist until mid-next week, when there is a 40% chance another storm will arrive with additional winter chill.
Some people have told me that my last update was quite a while back (actually on Friday). What they are really saying is: "let's hear it. What's it going to be?"
This morning I received a note consigning "Old-Man" GFS to the dust-bin of history (the current, but soon to be past edition of the Global Forecast Systems model). For quite a while the Old-Man has been indicating the potential for Snow Thursday into Shabbat, while the European models and the "New" GFS (the "parallel" version) have not. This person looked forward to the day when the New would replace the Old-Man, so tales of snow would be more than fairy tales.
I do too, but never discount the wisdom that comes with age. The latest forecasts shows that the European models and the New GFS have moved in the direction of the Old-Man GFS. We can add to that list the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System as well.
Now that a lot more has been said than done, we're back where we were several days ago, but perhaps with greater surety that a storm is on the way. After temperatures rocket upwards tomorrow, they will reenter our atmosphere almost as fast and winter will land upon us again. Strong winds and chill on Tuesday will be followed by rain and strong winds on Wednesday (snow on the Hermon), and there is the potential for heavy snow in the central mountains from late Thursday into Shabbat morning.
However, before you rush out to buy your snow shovels, keep in mind that it is only Sunday and the possibility of heavy snow some five days later is 30%. But, if you do buy that shovel, you have a similar chance of using it again in early march.
On the other hand, it hardly snows here, so these words may just melt off the page in the rainy weather ahead.
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 22, 2019
Weather It Is (Looking Ahead)
Good Afternoon:
Highlights: some rain, chilly weather through Shabbat, followed by a quick warm up, and then an end of the season winter storm (heavy rain, strong winds, and...)
Is it a sign when it seems to rain only over your own house? One wonders what one has done to displease those who order and deliver our weather each and every day.
After another chilly day on Shabbat, the temperatures will spike upwards into Monday night, when they will fall rapidly into Tuesday. Precipitation should arrive late Tuesday and continue into Shabbat.
Along the way, temperatures will chill-off further as we move into Wednesday and Thursday. At the moment, about 30% of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members are predicting temperatures cold enough for a heavy snow.
However, there are some caveats. Overall, the atmosphere as a whole will be on the mean colder than any other storm so far this year, which means that wet snow would be more likely to occur even if surface temperatures are above freezing in, for example, Jerusalem. Yet, the Canadian and European ensemble forecasts do not quite bring the coldest air as far south as the GEFS. Less cold air means lower chances for a snowy end to our winter.
Forecasts from Motzei Shabbat will hopefully tell us more about the details of our upcoming storm.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Highlights: some rain, chilly weather through Shabbat, followed by a quick warm up, and then an end of the season winter storm (heavy rain, strong winds, and...)
Is it a sign when it seems to rain only over your own house? One wonders what one has done to displease those who order and deliver our weather each and every day.
After another chilly day on Shabbat, the temperatures will spike upwards into Monday night, when they will fall rapidly into Tuesday. Precipitation should arrive late Tuesday and continue into Shabbat.
Along the way, temperatures will chill-off further as we move into Wednesday and Thursday. At the moment, about 30% of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members are predicting temperatures cold enough for a heavy snow.
However, there are some caveats. Overall, the atmosphere as a whole will be on the mean colder than any other storm so far this year, which means that wet snow would be more likely to occur even if surface temperatures are above freezing in, for example, Jerusalem. Yet, the Canadian and European ensemble forecasts do not quite bring the coldest air as far south as the GEFS. Less cold air means lower chances for a snowy end to our winter.
Forecasts from Motzei Shabbat will hopefully tell us more about the details of our upcoming storm.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Update)
Good Afternoon:
It's been raining off and on in most places, but in most places not very much.
However, after a few more chillier than warm days, temperatures should warm up on Sunday before plunging on Monday as colder air and a storm approaches from the west or northwest.
Several days ago it was very clear that it would turn comparatively cold this coming week and the forecast remains the same.
However, we also spoke about the potential for snow, even in Jerusalem. We mentioned that there was the possibility by mid-week, and then again late month or early March. The cold signal remains, but the snow signal?
We still see the possibility, but at the moment there is no clear signal for a real, snowy, winter cold.
Instead, we see some of the global forecasts bringing a winter storm at some point during the upcoming days, but never the majority or even a substantial minority on any particular day.
This does not give us much confidence that there will be a snowy, winter storm, even for Jerusalem.
Yet, it does appear to be a time with greater amounts of precipitation, colder winter temperatures, and strong winds, which may make it feel like winter, regardless.
Barry Lynn
It's been raining off and on in most places, but in most places not very much.
However, after a few more chillier than warm days, temperatures should warm up on Sunday before plunging on Monday as colder air and a storm approaches from the west or northwest.
Several days ago it was very clear that it would turn comparatively cold this coming week and the forecast remains the same.
However, we also spoke about the potential for snow, even in Jerusalem. We mentioned that there was the possibility by mid-week, and then again late month or early March. The cold signal remains, but the snow signal?
We still see the possibility, but at the moment there is no clear signal for a real, snowy, winter cold.
Instead, we see some of the global forecasts bringing a winter storm at some point during the upcoming days, but never the majority or even a substantial minority on any particular day.
This does not give us much confidence that there will be a snowy, winter storm, even for Jerusalem.
Yet, it does appear to be a time with greater amounts of precipitation, colder winter temperatures, and strong winds, which may make it feel like winter, regardless.
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 18, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Weather Update)
Good Afternoon:
Some rain and winter cold has spread over the country -- consistent with "medium" range forecasts of a couple of weeks ago. Moreover, such winter cold has about an 80% chance of continuing into early March.
The Global Forecast Ensemble System (GEFS) predicts that even colder winter temperatures will arrive both from the direction of Siberia and from unusually cold winter weather over Greenland. First, a cold "trough" in the wave pattern of air should drop in around February 25th, with another shot of cold air to follow a few days later (near the end of the month). Additional cold air may arrive from Greenland via northern Europe as storms traverse a strong "ridge" of relatively warm air over western and central Europe.
However, both the newer version of the Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) models (the deterministic and ensemble) are pointing towards real winter cold holding off until the very end of the month and early March.
We're going to have to wait a few days to see how this cold weather plays itself out in the forecast (and then reality), but winter is not going away, and it looks ready to bring us our coldest weather and highest chances for snow so far this year.
Barry Lynn
Some rain and winter cold has spread over the country -- consistent with "medium" range forecasts of a couple of weeks ago. Moreover, such winter cold has about an 80% chance of continuing into early March.
The Global Forecast Ensemble System (GEFS) predicts that even colder winter temperatures will arrive both from the direction of Siberia and from unusually cold winter weather over Greenland. First, a cold "trough" in the wave pattern of air should drop in around February 25th, with another shot of cold air to follow a few days later (near the end of the month). Additional cold air may arrive from Greenland via northern Europe as storms traverse a strong "ridge" of relatively warm air over western and central Europe.
However, both the newer version of the Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) models (the deterministic and ensemble) are pointing towards real winter cold holding off until the very end of the month and early March.
We're going to have to wait a few days to see how this cold weather plays itself out in the forecast (and then reality), but winter is not going away, and it looks ready to bring us our coldest weather and highest chances for snow so far this year.
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 15, 2019
Weather It Is (Stormy Weather)
Good Morning:
Highlights: thunderstorms through Sunday, and chilly weather throughout next week. Late February storm possible.
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) deserves a lot of credit. Almost 12 days ago, or even as much as two weeks ago, the Global Forecast Ensemble Model predicted a mid-February period of stormy and cold weather for the eastern Mediterranean (and Israel), and the model forecast was correct.
Where it missed out, though, was on the small details that have a large influence on our weather. For instance, Thursday's night storm approached from a more westerly direction than northwesterly, so that the coldest air arrived in the Jerusalem area, for example, on relatively dry southwesterly winds. Snow was "confined" to places such as Nimrod in the Golan, and the Hermon itself.
These details became apparent to us as we approached mid-week, as the forecast precipitation amounts for the Jerusalem area were lowered until after Thursday night's storm passed us by. However, another storm is arriving and temperatures will be falling tonight at upper and lower levels and these falls should continue over the next few days. The cold temperatures should combine with plenty of moisture to produce thunderstorms and hail in the central mountains, including Jerusalem, with flooding of low-lying areas possible (including the Jordan Valley/Dead-Sea) as we move from Friday night into late Sunday (if not Monday).
Looking further ahead, we see on our forecasts a titanic struggle between a building mass of cold air over western Siberia and a ridge building over western and central Europe. The cold air mass will be trying to plunge southward as the ridge builds to the north and east. Because this cold air would be arriving from the cold reaches of Siberia it is less likely to be warmed by the Mediterranean sea-waters. This means that even Jerusalem would be at risk of a major snowfall the following week if the trough of cold air is able to move southward. As someone wrote: "it's something to be concerned about."
Stay tuned and Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Highlights: thunderstorms through Sunday, and chilly weather throughout next week. Late February storm possible.
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) deserves a lot of credit. Almost 12 days ago, or even as much as two weeks ago, the Global Forecast Ensemble Model predicted a mid-February period of stormy and cold weather for the eastern Mediterranean (and Israel), and the model forecast was correct.
Where it missed out, though, was on the small details that have a large influence on our weather. For instance, Thursday's night storm approached from a more westerly direction than northwesterly, so that the coldest air arrived in the Jerusalem area, for example, on relatively dry southwesterly winds. Snow was "confined" to places such as Nimrod in the Golan, and the Hermon itself.
These details became apparent to us as we approached mid-week, as the forecast precipitation amounts for the Jerusalem area were lowered until after Thursday night's storm passed us by. However, another storm is arriving and temperatures will be falling tonight at upper and lower levels and these falls should continue over the next few days. The cold temperatures should combine with plenty of moisture to produce thunderstorms and hail in the central mountains, including Jerusalem, with flooding of low-lying areas possible (including the Jordan Valley/Dead-Sea) as we move from Friday night into late Sunday (if not Monday).
Looking further ahead, we see on our forecasts a titanic struggle between a building mass of cold air over western Siberia and a ridge building over western and central Europe. The cold air mass will be trying to plunge southward as the ridge builds to the north and east. Because this cold air would be arriving from the cold reaches of Siberia it is less likely to be warmed by the Mediterranean sea-waters. This means that even Jerusalem would be at risk of a major snowfall the following week if the trough of cold air is able to move southward. As someone wrote: "it's something to be concerned about."
Stay tuned and Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Weather It Is (Quite Cold, But)
Good Afternoon:
While one might be impressed by how cold it is going to get, and how long it will stay cold (with low temperatures near zero or single digits (Celcius) for the coming week (or more), one might also begin to wonder: "what's the point?" Where's the snow, and if no snow, why not bring on summer a tad bit early? In fact, I have people telling me just that.
There is an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from western Siberia into the central Mediterranean. However, the northern part of this trough will shear off from the southern part, cutting off its supply of polar (very cold) air. The southern system will then move eastward towards our area on Wednesday, arriving sometime Thursday -- but devoid of the comparatively cold temperatures required to bring snow to the Jerusalem area.
Yet, there is a second storm moving through England now that is forecast to spin around and dive into our eastward moving trough. The combination will lower temperatures in the upper level trough to values cold enough for snow, and this combined system should arrive Thursday night into Friday morning.
However, winds ahead of it are forecast to be southwesterly. Usually, this means that the air arriving with the cold air would be filled with dust and have relatively low humidity. This combination limits the potential for heavy precipitation, and indeed our upcoming storm will not be the heavy precipitation maker we originally saw in our forecasts. Yet, because this system is first transversing a large part of the mediterranean, there appears to be plenty of humidity to bring at least snow-showers to the highest elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas.
Currently, the forecast shows the center of the coldest air transversing northern Israel, which means that there could be a period of snow over northern mountainous areas Thursday night into Friday morning. Any shift southward in the track of the storm would raise the probability of a period snow in Jerusalem as well. The probability of this happening is about 30%.
In any case, heavier rain should arrive to the central mountains on Friday afternoon, and showers will continue throughout most of the next week, and the cold as well, over much of the country.
Israel is a small country, so small changes in storm tracks can affect different populated areas quite dramatically. It is also a very small country beset by much larger neighbors of whom many don't wish it well. This is ironic because the minority Arab population has a standard of living much higher than surrounding (Arab) countries, and also partakes in the country's civic and work life as well.
Still, such is the case, and I suppose that it was to be expected that we would have our "Israeli moments" at some point. The first was the late arrival of our son Friday night, which required a visit by the local security and then the Israel police -- all of whom helped us (quite kindly) locate our son. The second was when I received a notice from my daughter that she was "okay," and not on the bus that crashed on the way to Modiin.
One potential tragedy that was not okay, was the murder of Ori Ansbacher, by an unrepentant Palestinian from Hebron, who "wanted to kill a Jew and be a martyr." Strangely, he was "disowned" by local terrorist groups, who (I paraphrase) said that it wasn't honorable to sexually assault and kill a girl who went out into the woods to read. He's actually not being offered the usual praise and congratulations for murdering a Jewish Israeli (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-quietly-renounce-ori-ansbachers-killer-after-he-admits-rape/). Then, we read that her family was visited by Palestinians who wished to express their condolences (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-pay-condolence-visit-to-family-of-slain-teen-ori-ansbacher/).
This is all quite unexpected, but relevant to a conversation I had with a co-worker who asked me what my plan is for making peace. My response was: "that they should stop trying to kill us." He responded that is no plan at all, and that the Israeli army had killed more Palestinians than they us, confusing selfdefense with murder. That can happen among the most well-intentioned people, but I truly believe that coexistence is possible, but we would need a lot more Palestinians to wonder if murder is ever justified. That was the idea after the signing of the Oslo Accords, but Mr. Arafat had other ideas (he was simply biding his time until he could start the next war, but from close up), and his successor still "pays to slay" his citizens to murder Israelis.
One might wonder how has the State of Israel (but really the Jewish people) survived 70 plus years of Arab and Palestinian terrorism? Of course, the Israeli Defense Forces, and the local (Shin Bet) and external (Mossad) secret services have been instrumental in protecting the state. However, none of these defenses is foolproof. My guess is that we've survived simply because of the power of the "Shiva" or mourning period to uplift those who have suffered the worst losses from the depths of despair (I hope never to find out!). I think that it does so by bringing forth memories of the departed into the present, and through the retelling of these memories this person (or even child, God forbid) lives within us, and this gives us the strength to go forward. It's given the State itself the power to survive.
Barry Lynn
While one might be impressed by how cold it is going to get, and how long it will stay cold (with low temperatures near zero or single digits (Celcius) for the coming week (or more), one might also begin to wonder: "what's the point?" Where's the snow, and if no snow, why not bring on summer a tad bit early? In fact, I have people telling me just that.
There is an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from western Siberia into the central Mediterranean. However, the northern part of this trough will shear off from the southern part, cutting off its supply of polar (very cold) air. The southern system will then move eastward towards our area on Wednesday, arriving sometime Thursday -- but devoid of the comparatively cold temperatures required to bring snow to the Jerusalem area.
Yet, there is a second storm moving through England now that is forecast to spin around and dive into our eastward moving trough. The combination will lower temperatures in the upper level trough to values cold enough for snow, and this combined system should arrive Thursday night into Friday morning.
However, winds ahead of it are forecast to be southwesterly. Usually, this means that the air arriving with the cold air would be filled with dust and have relatively low humidity. This combination limits the potential for heavy precipitation, and indeed our upcoming storm will not be the heavy precipitation maker we originally saw in our forecasts. Yet, because this system is first transversing a large part of the mediterranean, there appears to be plenty of humidity to bring at least snow-showers to the highest elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas.
Currently, the forecast shows the center of the coldest air transversing northern Israel, which means that there could be a period of snow over northern mountainous areas Thursday night into Friday morning. Any shift southward in the track of the storm would raise the probability of a period snow in Jerusalem as well. The probability of this happening is about 30%.
In any case, heavier rain should arrive to the central mountains on Friday afternoon, and showers will continue throughout most of the next week, and the cold as well, over much of the country.
Israel is a small country, so small changes in storm tracks can affect different populated areas quite dramatically. It is also a very small country beset by much larger neighbors of whom many don't wish it well. This is ironic because the minority Arab population has a standard of living much higher than surrounding (Arab) countries, and also partakes in the country's civic and work life as well.
Still, such is the case, and I suppose that it was to be expected that we would have our "Israeli moments" at some point. The first was the late arrival of our son Friday night, which required a visit by the local security and then the Israel police -- all of whom helped us (quite kindly) locate our son. The second was when I received a notice from my daughter that she was "okay," and not on the bus that crashed on the way to Modiin.
One potential tragedy that was not okay, was the murder of Ori Ansbacher, by an unrepentant Palestinian from Hebron, who "wanted to kill a Jew and be a martyr." Strangely, he was "disowned" by local terrorist groups, who (I paraphrase) said that it wasn't honorable to sexually assault and kill a girl who went out into the woods to read. He's actually not being offered the usual praise and congratulations for murdering a Jewish Israeli (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-quietly-renounce-ori-ansbachers-killer-after-he-admits-rape/). Then, we read that her family was visited by Palestinians who wished to express their condolences (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-pay-condolence-visit-to-family-of-slain-teen-ori-ansbacher/).
This is all quite unexpected, but relevant to a conversation I had with a co-worker who asked me what my plan is for making peace. My response was: "that they should stop trying to kill us." He responded that is no plan at all, and that the Israeli army had killed more Palestinians than they us, confusing selfdefense with murder. That can happen among the most well-intentioned people, but I truly believe that coexistence is possible, but we would need a lot more Palestinians to wonder if murder is ever justified. That was the idea after the signing of the Oslo Accords, but Mr. Arafat had other ideas (he was simply biding his time until he could start the next war, but from close up), and his successor still "pays to slay" his citizens to murder Israelis.
One might wonder how has the State of Israel (but really the Jewish people) survived 70 plus years of Arab and Palestinian terrorism? Of course, the Israeli Defense Forces, and the local (Shin Bet) and external (Mossad) secret services have been instrumental in protecting the state. However, none of these defenses is foolproof. My guess is that we've survived simply because of the power of the "Shiva" or mourning period to uplift those who have suffered the worst losses from the depths of despair (I hope never to find out!). I think that it does so by bringing forth memories of the departed into the present, and through the retelling of these memories this person (or even child, God forbid) lives within us, and this gives us the strength to go forward. It's given the State itself the power to survive.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Weather It Is (From Yesterday)
But, nothing has much changed, except that the system appears somewhat colder than when this was written. Still, uncertainty is the only certainty.
Good Evening:
We're still waiting and watching.
One storm has now moved south of England into western Europe. Another storm should drop down from Scandinavia and then interact with the eastward moving storm. The resulting trough should then plunge southward west of Cyprus.
Currently, the storm is forecast to be closer to Crete than to Cyprus, but the global models still haven't really sampled the Scandinavian storm yet, so there is probably some error in the forecast in regard to where the storm plunges southward.
If the storm plunges further eastward, the chances of snow will improve. Complicating the forecast picture is the possibility of an additional influx of cold air as the storm moves very close to us late Thursday and Thursday night. Overall, there is a 30% chance of wet snow/rain in Jerusalem Thursday night, and wet snow in Gush Etzion. Winds will also be strong, and flooding is possible in coastal areas and valleys as well.
Otherwise, the chilly, wintry weather should last into late next week, with a small possibility of another storm mid-next week.
Barry Lynn
Good Evening:
We're still waiting and watching.
One storm has now moved south of England into western Europe. Another storm should drop down from Scandinavia and then interact with the eastward moving storm. The resulting trough should then plunge southward west of Cyprus.
Currently, the storm is forecast to be closer to Crete than to Cyprus, but the global models still haven't really sampled the Scandinavian storm yet, so there is probably some error in the forecast in regard to where the storm plunges southward.
If the storm plunges further eastward, the chances of snow will improve. Complicating the forecast picture is the possibility of an additional influx of cold air as the storm moves very close to us late Thursday and Thursday night. Overall, there is a 30% chance of wet snow/rain in Jerusalem Thursday night, and wet snow in Gush Etzion. Winds will also be strong, and flooding is possible in coastal areas and valleys as well.
Otherwise, the chilly, wintry weather should last into late next week, with a small possibility of another storm mid-next week.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Winter Storm Update
Good Evening:
For snow-lovers, the probability of snow in Jerusalem later this week remains up in the air.
Earlier today, the forecast ensembles reverted to their previous forecast positions with a low forming closer to Crete than Cyprus. However, the latest update (12z) has intensified the low further east and southward.
Moreover, wind speeds have increased to gale force, and precipitation amounts have increased by about 30% to relatively high amounts for typical winter storms (generally, > 50 mm on average).
In any case, the resulting storm will be the interaction of a low over the eastern Atlantic, which is forecast to move southward of England, and another low moving southward from Scandinavia. Both storms are originating in areas with relatively low atmospheric sampling -- especially the storm over the eastern Atlantic.
So, it may really be only Monday (three days before) when we know how these two storms will interact and affect our weather. In any case, it will get winter-cold for several days, just how much: unknown.
Barry Lynn
For snow-lovers, the probability of snow in Jerusalem later this week remains up in the air.
Earlier today, the forecast ensembles reverted to their previous forecast positions with a low forming closer to Crete than Cyprus. However, the latest update (12z) has intensified the low further east and southward.
Moreover, wind speeds have increased to gale force, and precipitation amounts have increased by about 30% to relatively high amounts for typical winter storms (generally, > 50 mm on average).
In any case, the resulting storm will be the interaction of a low over the eastern Atlantic, which is forecast to move southward of England, and another low moving southward from Scandinavia. Both storms are originating in areas with relatively low atmospheric sampling -- especially the storm over the eastern Atlantic.
So, it may really be only Monday (three days before) when we know how these two storms will interact and affect our weather. In any case, it will get winter-cold for several days, just how much: unknown.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Weather It Is (A Storm Arrives and a Storm Brews)
Good Evening:
We're on track for a double barrel storm: tonight and tomorrow, and then Friday into Monday.
Both storms will bring plenty of cold, but the snow will be confined to the Hermon.
After this, we're excited about a potential storm arriving late next week. It's been shown on our global ensemble maps for the last couple of days. As we've moved along, the winter "signal" has been intensifying.
What does this mean for us? It's too early to tell, but a mid-February snowstorm is now a possibility.
Barry Lynn
We're on track for a double barrel storm: tonight and tomorrow, and then Friday into Monday.
Both storms will bring plenty of cold, but the snow will be confined to the Hermon.
After this, we're excited about a potential storm arriving late next week. It's been shown on our global ensemble maps for the last couple of days. As we've moved along, the winter "signal" has been intensifying.
What does this mean for us? It's too early to tell, but a mid-February snowstorm is now a possibility.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, February 3, 2019
Weather It Is (Is Winter Over? No!)
Good Evening:
High pressure continues to build over our area and southerly winds continue to warm the atmosphere.
The warming winds should continue into Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday.
Then, a cold front will pass through and bring back rain and much colder temperatures on northwesterly winds. The forecast actually shows periods of rain through mid-month (February), along with more winter-like temperatures.
In fact, there's a general downward trend in temperatures as the days progress into next week. This leaves us with the question: will the frost out my window (below) be replaced by a covering of snow?
Barry Lynn
High pressure continues to build over our area and southerly winds continue to warm the atmosphere.
The warming winds should continue into Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday.
Then, a cold front will pass through and bring back rain and much colder temperatures on northwesterly winds. The forecast actually shows periods of rain through mid-month (February), along with more winter-like temperatures.
In fact, there's a general downward trend in temperatures as the days progress into next week. This leaves us with the question: will the frost out my window (below) be replaced by a covering of snow?
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 1, 2019
So, I convince my wife to stay home to give herself a day to recover from her illness. This is after going to school a day after starting an antibiotic.
We have a kitchen with a L shape. It's not one with a single counter or a center counter by which husband and wife can face off on different sides.
We don't have to even look at each other.
What does she say: "you told me to stay home and rest but you're in the house." How can I rest with you in the house?
Then, she asks me to do her job and pick up the kids. It's not that she hasn't rested, she just doesn't want people to see her out and about. My feeling was that if she was well enough to go to the doctore then she was well enough to do other things. After all, she could always put a sign in her car: "I'm sick and my husband is Maetzben."
We have a kitchen with a L shape. It's not one with a single counter or a center counter by which husband and wife can face off on different sides.
We don't have to even look at each other.
What does she say: "you told me to stay home and rest but you're in the house." How can I rest with you in the house?
Then, she asks me to do her job and pick up the kids. It's not that she hasn't rested, she just doesn't want people to see her out and about. My feeling was that if she was well enough to go to the doctore then she was well enough to do other things. After all, she could always put a sign in her car: "I'm sick and my husband is Maetzben."
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