Good Morning:
The Winter Storm rages on, although the cold is not too severe, as snow has fallen only on the Hermon. Nevertheless, the IMS reported that this storm broke single day rain records, consistent with our forecasts. There has also been large amounts of lightning and hail/graupel associated with thunderstorms invigorated by desert dust.
Prior, we spoke about a possible storm this coming Sunday or Monday. However, this storm is now forecast to move south of Crete, southward into Egypt, before moving our way later in the week. As it does so, there is the possibility that a reinforcing shot of cold air will bring a redevelopment and another cold winter storm.
By the way, both the Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have become strongly positive, meaning that the coldest air is located over the artic and polar regions, where it typically was, but in the last several years was not. The AO and NAO are forecast to remain positive through January. The negative AO and negative NAO have been one manifestation of the unusually cold and snowy US winters, and rainy but relatively mild weather here. For us, this reversal opens the possibility that our winter will revert more to normal, with an occasional deep trough that could bring snow to the mountains of Jerusalem sometime this coming month.
Happy Chanukah and Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Friday, December 27, 2019
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Weather It Is (Storm Warning)
Our first Winter Storm arrives today.
1) Rain is expected to arrive along the northwest coast on Wednesday, and spread to the central coastal areas during the day.
2) Heavy rain/thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and night.
3) Gale force winds Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
4) Our WRF forecast shows between 75 to 100 mm of rain in convective storms over a 6 hour period, currently forecast to be within the Tel-Aviv area late Wednesday, northward to Netanya.
5) Rain arrives in Jerusalem Wednesday night.
6) The storm continues until Friday, with rains over the south as well.
7) There is a 25% chance of snow at the end of the year.
Be Safe
Friday, December 20, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Storm On The Way)
Good Morning:
After several Fall rains, Winter is on its way. Relatively mild winter weather will be replaced by a distinct chill as we move from Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture will be quick to follow, and so will the wet, and very windy weather (with possibly gale force winds).
The winter weather will be courtesy of a storm dropping down from western Turkey, with a reinforcing shot of cold air as we move into later this coming week. The very chilly weather should last for several days, and there is a 15% chance that temperatures will drop close to freezing in the higher elevations as we move towards the very end of the year.
As of note, most of the global ensemble forecasts are predicting 50 mm or more for the central mountains, and higher amounts along coastal areas. Expect cold temperatures aloft to also invigorate convective storms leading to periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and hail.
As we noted in our last blog, the winter weather is forecast to continue well into January.
Highlights:
1) Storm arrives Monday night.
2) Gale force winds expected.
3) Heavy rain, floods.
4) Hail, thunderstorms, and snow on the Hermon.
Barry Lynn
After several Fall rains, Winter is on its way. Relatively mild winter weather will be replaced by a distinct chill as we move from Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture will be quick to follow, and so will the wet, and very windy weather (with possibly gale force winds).
The winter weather will be courtesy of a storm dropping down from western Turkey, with a reinforcing shot of cold air as we move into later this coming week. The very chilly weather should last for several days, and there is a 15% chance that temperatures will drop close to freezing in the higher elevations as we move towards the very end of the year.
As of note, most of the global ensemble forecasts are predicting 50 mm or more for the central mountains, and higher amounts along coastal areas. Expect cold temperatures aloft to also invigorate convective storms leading to periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and hail.
As we noted in our last blog, the winter weather is forecast to continue well into January.
Highlights:
1) Storm arrives Monday night.
2) Gale force winds expected.
3) Heavy rain, floods.
4) Hail, thunderstorms, and snow on the Hermon.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Weather It Is (Just Nice Weather)
Good Evening:
There's not much going on weatherwise around here. After a few chilly days to start our week, the winds should switch to a more southerly direction, bringing much milder weather our way.
The warm weather will be in response to a ridge of higher pressure building into our region, as a colder low pressure trough exits to our east.
At this point in time, many folks might be just ready to throw up their hands and give up on our winter. In fact, we haven't really had winter yet, and our last storm (with 90 km/h winds in Ashkelon) was more typical of fall than winter.
Yet, change might be just around the corner. You've heard of our "Israel Winter Weather" group. It is populated by a bunch of optimists, one of which is even more optimistic than the rest. One of the members is Yaakov Consor, who has contributed to this blog in the past. The other is Jonathan Hoffman (of Jerusalem Weather Forecasts: www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf). While my weather site provides detailed forecast information from various models, our group makes an effort to not leave any stone unturned that might give a reason for the group's existence.
Fortunately, there are a number of signals that next week's warmth may be this year's last, and the year will end with a period of colder and rainy weather (with snow on the Hermon). Moreover, the Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are forecast to both go positive and remain in their positive phase through January. This type of weather pattern implies a stormy and chillier than normal January. While we've had rainy, we haven't had chilly at the same time. If one puts rainy and chilly in the same sentence, one might have the ingredients for snow as we move into January.
As seen here (https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-in-2019), a negative NAO has bad repercussions for the Greenland ice sheet. Too much melting of this ice sheet could detrimentally raise sea-levels. A shift to positive NAO will push storms further north into northern Europe, hopefully increasing snowfall on the ice-sheet, and building it back up to more normal levels. For us, this type of circulation pattern bends back towards the eastern Mediterranean, bringing us our rainy winter weather. If one of these storms merges with a Siberian trough, we can get a large snowfall.
I need to stop now and update you on the fate of our Snail family I am sure that you've been wondering just how they've been, since you saw them happily chomping away on an assortment of vegetables one evening a few weeks ago. Well, I can tell you that they don't all fit on one plate now, and that their numbers have grown. This is exciting news for those that like snails and are interested in their welfare. You might also like to know that sometimes snails don't get along with each other, and occasionally you'll find one snail eating by him or herself, alone. This is less likely, now, though, because there are just too many snails to be picky.
Well snails may be nice, Jelly Fish are not -- and they have ruined too many trips to the beach. We've all been bothered by the number of Jelly Fish -- who cause all sorts of problems for bathers and fish. Since there hasn't been any weather, I tried to think of some other business that might help make ends meet. As you know, I like to cook, so I thought of a recipe for Jelly Fish Pie. It's a start.
Here it is: 6 eggs (beaten), 1 cup sugar, a pinch of salt, 1 tsp Vanilla Extract, 1/2 tsp nutmeg, and 2 cups milk. Add the last ingredients together, and then beat in 1/2 cup Jelly Fish flour. Add to a pie crust, and cook for 25 to 35 minutes at 175 degrees Celcius. The Jelly Fish flour adds consistency and flavor that is unique to members of the Scyphozoa (phylum Cnidaria). However, most Rabbis do not consider gelatinous members of the subphylum Medusozoa, a major part of the phylum Cnidaria to be kosher. If you're one of those, then just make the recipe for custard pie, which can be found here: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/26326/elvas-custard-pie/. Just be sure to tell your guests it's not Jelly Fish Pie.
Barry Lynn
There's not much going on weatherwise around here. After a few chilly days to start our week, the winds should switch to a more southerly direction, bringing much milder weather our way.
The warm weather will be in response to a ridge of higher pressure building into our region, as a colder low pressure trough exits to our east.
At this point in time, many folks might be just ready to throw up their hands and give up on our winter. In fact, we haven't really had winter yet, and our last storm (with 90 km/h winds in Ashkelon) was more typical of fall than winter.
Yet, change might be just around the corner. You've heard of our "Israel Winter Weather" group. It is populated by a bunch of optimists, one of which is even more optimistic than the rest. One of the members is Yaakov Consor, who has contributed to this blog in the past. The other is Jonathan Hoffman (of Jerusalem Weather Forecasts: www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf). While my weather site provides detailed forecast information from various models, our group makes an effort to not leave any stone unturned that might give a reason for the group's existence.
Fortunately, there are a number of signals that next week's warmth may be this year's last, and the year will end with a period of colder and rainy weather (with snow on the Hermon). Moreover, the Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are forecast to both go positive and remain in their positive phase through January. This type of weather pattern implies a stormy and chillier than normal January. While we've had rainy, we haven't had chilly at the same time. If one puts rainy and chilly in the same sentence, one might have the ingredients for snow as we move into January.
As seen here (https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-in-2019), a negative NAO has bad repercussions for the Greenland ice sheet. Too much melting of this ice sheet could detrimentally raise sea-levels. A shift to positive NAO will push storms further north into northern Europe, hopefully increasing snowfall on the ice-sheet, and building it back up to more normal levels. For us, this type of circulation pattern bends back towards the eastern Mediterranean, bringing us our rainy winter weather. If one of these storms merges with a Siberian trough, we can get a large snowfall.
I need to stop now and update you on the fate of our Snail family I am sure that you've been wondering just how they've been, since you saw them happily chomping away on an assortment of vegetables one evening a few weeks ago. Well, I can tell you that they don't all fit on one plate now, and that their numbers have grown. This is exciting news for those that like snails and are interested in their welfare. You might also like to know that sometimes snails don't get along with each other, and occasionally you'll find one snail eating by him or herself, alone. This is less likely, now, though, because there are just too many snails to be picky.
Well snails may be nice, Jelly Fish are not -- and they have ruined too many trips to the beach. We've all been bothered by the number of Jelly Fish -- who cause all sorts of problems for bathers and fish. Since there hasn't been any weather, I tried to think of some other business that might help make ends meet. As you know, I like to cook, so I thought of a recipe for Jelly Fish Pie. It's a start.
Here it is: 6 eggs (beaten), 1 cup sugar, a pinch of salt, 1 tsp Vanilla Extract, 1/2 tsp nutmeg, and 2 cups milk. Add the last ingredients together, and then beat in 1/2 cup Jelly Fish flour. Add to a pie crust, and cook for 25 to 35 minutes at 175 degrees Celcius. The Jelly Fish flour adds consistency and flavor that is unique to members of the Scyphozoa (phylum Cnidaria). However, most Rabbis do not consider gelatinous members of the subphylum Medusozoa, a major part of the phylum Cnidaria to be kosher. If you're one of those, then just make the recipe for custard pie, which can be found here: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/26326/elvas-custard-pie/. Just be sure to tell your guests it's not Jelly Fish Pie.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, December 7, 2019
Weather It Is (Drive Safely!)
Good Evening:
The Israel Meteorological Service has determined that last month was the seventh driest November in the last 80 years. As noted by Yaakov Cansor, of the Israel Winter Weather group, there was a persistent blocking high pressure system located over Greenland. The high is part of a pattern stretching from Greenland to the subtropics "known as a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), [that] typically favors a trough of low pressure over northern and western Europe and a corresponding ridge of high pressure over southeastern Europe, bringing warmer and drier than usual weather to Israel." You can read about it here:
However, as noted by Mr. Castor, since Dec began, the pattern has gradually changed to a positive NAO (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif), A ridge of high pressure has built over northwestern Europe, allowing storm systems and winter chill to drop further south over eastern Europe and into the eastern Mediterranean. We expect this pattern to continue for the next two weeks, bringing our first "real" winter rains this week, both Sunday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday into Thursday, with showers and chilly, damp weather continuing to the end of the third week of December.
That's good new because as you all know we need the rain. At the same time, folks are reminded to slow down and drive with greater distance between cars, to prevent accidents.
These car "accidents" are a strange thing. Why? Well, we have had (but not recently) an unfortunate number of accidents that were not accidents at all, the last one left two children severely injured, and happened on the road outside my town when a Palestinian driver ran them over. More recently, a young man (Israel Arab) crashed his speeding car into a family, killing the mother and her three week old baby. One wonders, if this was also a terrorist attack.
We don't really know if the last was or was not a terrorist attack, but the result was the same. When a terrorist kills someone, the secret service, police, and army are mobilized to find the person or persons responsible. Yet, when someone kills someone in an "accident' on the road, that person just becomes another statistic (both the dead and undead). Yet, over the last several years, if not decade, more than 3000 Israelis were killed in road accidents, while 146 died in terrorist attacks (https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/number-of-terrorism-fatalities-in-israel). That is more than 20 times the number of people killed by fellow Israelis than killed by our Palestinian neighbors! Are drivers who drive without concern for their fellow drivers not just as bad? Aren't they Road Terrorists?
If you don't want to be a road terrorist, then do the following: i) leave 1 car length between you and the car in front of you for every 15 km/h, ii) slow down when it's raining, iii) keep your eyes on the road. Don't i) pass on the right lane or in a left turning lane, ii) text while driving, iii) read your phone or dial your phone, iv) weave in and out, v) tailgate. (See, for example: https://www.safety.com/interstate-safety-tips/ ; https://www.bceo.org/safedrivingtips.html).
I'd also like to suggest that our police stop standing on corners and at stoplights to give out tickets, and get out on the roads, where dangerous driving occurs.
In summary be courteous of other drivers; don't be a road terrorist.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Is Coming!)
Good Evening:
Headlines are ringing: winter is coming!
But, first I must digress and explain how is it that I ended up with the responsibility to bring winter weather to Israel (i.e., bring the the rain at the right time and place). Basically, at the end of the 18 Blessing Prayer there is a place for personal prayers. At that time, I respectively pointed out that folks have been complaining to me for years about the weather, which isn't at all fair because I don't have much to do with it at all (at least not more than anyone else). This year, it was especially bad because here it seemed to stay warm for far too long, while other places were having normal or even colder weather than usual (in fact, a good part of the US is being blanketed in heavy snow, and even hurricane force winds (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/27/us/thanksgiving-weather.html?)). It was then that the fog lifted, my "prayers" hit home and I was given responsibility for this winters weather.
As I wrote, winter is coming and the last evening of the month will see the warmest temperatures for quite some time. In fact, I was able to arrange for a steady decline in temperatures from the start of December(Sunday) until the end of next week, and possibly into the following week (there is only so much cold air to go around, and I have to pay for it). Moreover, the end of next week and the following week could see persistent showers. I say "could see" because I'm not very good at multitasking and I have to first get the cold down before going on to bring the rain.
All this will be made possible by a shifting of the upper air pattern over Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. After a small ridge of warm air builds over our area on Shabbat, the pattern will split with one area of cold air moving southward along the western coast of Europe and another will drop down into our area. In between, an amplified ridge will build into central Europe.
This is a bit unusual, as relatively warm weather will remain at the time over Greenland, which usually ends up pushing the trough of cold air over western or central Europe, leaving us on the warmer side of the weather, where we've been for the last month. Fortunately, the warm air over Greenland should dissipate as we move towards the middle of the month, which should allow colder air to flow across Europe. This should open the door for cold air to slide southward into the eastern Mediterranean. It's a lot on my plate, but if all goes well, winter will be here.
By the way, the system arriving at the end of next week could be downright chilly, not just wet, but the kind of chill that makes you want to button up and possibly put on a hat. That's winter in Israel.
That's the winter my wife remembers when she was a child, but it came in October.
I am not sure if my wife really knew what she was signing up for when she agreed to marry me. People calling at all hours of the night to find out if they'll be able to get out in the morning, after a night of ice and snow. I can't tell you how many times we've had to wake up for just such phonecalls.
She should have been prepared, but it wasn't one of the questions she thought to ask about when we met ("do people call you at night?"). Instead, we spoke about some of our goals, some of our likes and dislikes, and technical things: would we be okay with internet or TV in the house, and would I make a mess in the kitchen -- important subjects for sure.
I thought that I had covered all the bases, and overall I think I made the right choice to marry my wife. Hence, you can imagine my surprise, which was followed by shock and consternation when I saw her prepare a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich for my son's breakfast.
She -- I almost feel like this is not something that should be in a blog -- she put the peanut butter on one slice of bread and the chocolate on the other. That is not a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich!
That's like two people marrying and never sleeping in the same bed (at the same time). You can't make a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich that way, and you can't grow watermelons either.
Barry Lynn
Headlines are ringing: winter is coming!
But, first I must digress and explain how is it that I ended up with the responsibility to bring winter weather to Israel (i.e., bring the the rain at the right time and place). Basically, at the end of the 18 Blessing Prayer there is a place for personal prayers. At that time, I respectively pointed out that folks have been complaining to me for years about the weather, which isn't at all fair because I don't have much to do with it at all (at least not more than anyone else). This year, it was especially bad because here it seemed to stay warm for far too long, while other places were having normal or even colder weather than usual (in fact, a good part of the US is being blanketed in heavy snow, and even hurricane force winds (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/27/us/thanksgiving-weather.html?)). It was then that the fog lifted, my "prayers" hit home and I was given responsibility for this winters weather.
As I wrote, winter is coming and the last evening of the month will see the warmest temperatures for quite some time. In fact, I was able to arrange for a steady decline in temperatures from the start of December(Sunday) until the end of next week, and possibly into the following week (there is only so much cold air to go around, and I have to pay for it). Moreover, the end of next week and the following week could see persistent showers. I say "could see" because I'm not very good at multitasking and I have to first get the cold down before going on to bring the rain.
All this will be made possible by a shifting of the upper air pattern over Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. After a small ridge of warm air builds over our area on Shabbat, the pattern will split with one area of cold air moving southward along the western coast of Europe and another will drop down into our area. In between, an amplified ridge will build into central Europe.
This is a bit unusual, as relatively warm weather will remain at the time over Greenland, which usually ends up pushing the trough of cold air over western or central Europe, leaving us on the warmer side of the weather, where we've been for the last month. Fortunately, the warm air over Greenland should dissipate as we move towards the middle of the month, which should allow colder air to flow across Europe. This should open the door for cold air to slide southward into the eastern Mediterranean. It's a lot on my plate, but if all goes well, winter will be here.
By the way, the system arriving at the end of next week could be downright chilly, not just wet, but the kind of chill that makes you want to button up and possibly put on a hat. That's winter in Israel.
That's the winter my wife remembers when she was a child, but it came in October.
I am not sure if my wife really knew what she was signing up for when she agreed to marry me. People calling at all hours of the night to find out if they'll be able to get out in the morning, after a night of ice and snow. I can't tell you how many times we've had to wake up for just such phonecalls.
She should have been prepared, but it wasn't one of the questions she thought to ask about when we met ("do people call you at night?"). Instead, we spoke about some of our goals, some of our likes and dislikes, and technical things: would we be okay with internet or TV in the house, and would I make a mess in the kitchen -- important subjects for sure.
I thought that I had covered all the bases, and overall I think I made the right choice to marry my wife. Hence, you can imagine my surprise, which was followed by shock and consternation when I saw her prepare a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich for my son's breakfast.
She -- I almost feel like this is not something that should be in a blog -- she put the peanut butter on one slice of bread and the chocolate on the other. That is not a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich!
That's like two people marrying and never sleeping in the same bed (at the same time). You can't make a peanut butter and chocolate sandwich that way, and you can't grow watermelons either.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Weather It Is (Was That Rain?)
Good Evening:
The weather these last few days has been a bit stormy. Just today, we had thundershowers dotting the area around Jerusalem, and yesterday even saw some rain in the center of the country.
There is also a bit of a nip in the air, and yet winter doesn't really feel like it has arrived. Moreover, there is a blocking high centered to our north which is basically putting any weather changes on hold. It is associated with warmer, drier weather in southeastern Europe, including Israel, and wetter and colder weather in western Europe (on the backside of the high is a trough). Yaakov Cantor of the "Israel Winter Weather" group wrote that "three factors favor a higher probability of high pressure and at times, a “blocking high” from Greenland to Scandinavia. First, we are near the minimum in the sunspot cycle, which in the past 100 years correlates with high pressure in those areas. Second, the atmospheric pattern from this spring into early fall featured frequent episodes of such blocking highs, and such patterns tend to persist and recur. Finally, the ocean temperature pattern with abnormally warm waters from near Greenland to Iceland, and abnormally cool from off the coast of southeast Canada to near France, favors a better than usual chance of blocking highs this winter." He expects this type of blocking pattern to persist into late December or early January.
And yet, there is some indication that the block will, at least temporarily, be replaced by a trough of low pressure that could bring rain from sometime next week until the first week of December.
But don't worry that we won't have any weather at all -- just prior to our recent showers, we had weather of a different type: missiles, which seem to have morphed now from a "nuisance" (unless you were hit by one) to be able to explode with the destructive power of a small tornado. The good news is that our Prime Minister was heard to says: "Our enemies got the message..."(https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-goals-of-gaza-operation-achieved-in-full-our-enemies-got-the-message/)..." and "I believe the message is starting to get across (https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-islamic-jihad-knows-israel-will-keeping-striking-with-no-mercy/),” that we are not to be trifled with. Except that the news following Shabbat was that HAMAS just fired at Beer Sheva. (https://www.timesofisrael.com/conflicting-claims-as-to-whether-hamas-leaders-okayed-rocket-fire-at-beersheba/). So, I am not sure that anyone is really listening to our Prime Minister, anymore.
Even more interesting is that the Media is bending over backwards to pretend that the ceasefire that "started" early Friday lasted through the continuing rocket fire emanating from Gaza. Look at the headline of this article in the "Times of Israel" (and it wasn't alone among media outlets): "Fresh rockets target south but shaky Gaza ceasefire appears to hold."
(https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/). The TOI article noted that the rocket fire was the fourth violation of the ceasefire. Either there is "ceasefire" or there isn't, or does the old, but not so-old joke still hold: "we cease and they fire?"
When does a stated policy become a thing of ridicule? When did we become an object of ridicule? Perhaps when it was claimed that if one rocket is fired from Gaza... we would return or attack with such ferocity.... or when the previous Prime Minister Olmert agreed to accept an economic separation between the Israelis living inside the area demarcated by the Green Line (the old Armistice Line) or outside it (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/eu-and-israel-end-trade-dispute-1.1152244) -- the end result being a process leading now to the European Court of Justice ruling that the building of Israel towns in Judea and Samaria -- the home of Jewish life going back to the time of the Bible is "characterized by the fact that they give concrete expression to a policy of population transfer conducted by that state outside its territory)" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-landmark-ruling-eus-top-court-says-settlement-product-labeling-mandatory/). Of course, the court forgot to note the irony that the only ones who engaged in population transfer were the Europeans. They transferred the Jews to the gas chambers.
It's not just us our policy makers and media that must have read George Orwell's book "1984." HAMAS says that that Israel will not choose when there will be a ceasefire; that the decision to carry out military campaigns remains in the hands of HAMAS (and Islamic Jihad), and “Israel bears the consequences and results of its ongoing aggression.” (https://www.timesofisrael.com/blamed-for-beersheba-rocket-fire-hamas-says-israel-wont-choose-timing-of-ops/).
So, let's summarize: the Israeli government claims that it will show "no mercy" and that "we will protect ourselves." But, we stopped the bombing very soon after it started and didn't attack HAMAS at all. The media claims that a "shaky" ceasefire still holds (https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/), but missile fire continues. HAMAS claims that it can attack us when ever it wants, but we would be the aggressor.
In the meantime, Islamic Jihad has developed a 300 kg bomb that can easily destroy a building (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-used-new-rocket-with-300kg-warhead-during-fighting-report/).
Fortunately, we don't have any real tornados here. At least that is something.
Of course, as long as our leadership continue to blow hot air, and our media reassures us that skies are clear and sunny, we've got nothing to worry about.
Barry Lynn
The weather these last few days has been a bit stormy. Just today, we had thundershowers dotting the area around Jerusalem, and yesterday even saw some rain in the center of the country.
There is also a bit of a nip in the air, and yet winter doesn't really feel like it has arrived. Moreover, there is a blocking high centered to our north which is basically putting any weather changes on hold. It is associated with warmer, drier weather in southeastern Europe, including Israel, and wetter and colder weather in western Europe (on the backside of the high is a trough). Yaakov Cantor of the "Israel Winter Weather" group wrote that "three factors favor a higher probability of high pressure and at times, a “blocking high” from Greenland to Scandinavia. First, we are near the minimum in the sunspot cycle, which in the past 100 years correlates with high pressure in those areas. Second, the atmospheric pattern from this spring into early fall featured frequent episodes of such blocking highs, and such patterns tend to persist and recur. Finally, the ocean temperature pattern with abnormally warm waters from near Greenland to Iceland, and abnormally cool from off the coast of southeast Canada to near France, favors a better than usual chance of blocking highs this winter." He expects this type of blocking pattern to persist into late December or early January.
And yet, there is some indication that the block will, at least temporarily, be replaced by a trough of low pressure that could bring rain from sometime next week until the first week of December.
But don't worry that we won't have any weather at all -- just prior to our recent showers, we had weather of a different type: missiles, which seem to have morphed now from a "nuisance" (unless you were hit by one) to be able to explode with the destructive power of a small tornado. The good news is that our Prime Minister was heard to says: "Our enemies got the message..."(https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-goals-of-gaza-operation-achieved-in-full-our-enemies-got-the-message/)..." and "I believe the message is starting to get across (https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-islamic-jihad-knows-israel-will-keeping-striking-with-no-mercy/),” that we are not to be trifled with. Except that the news following Shabbat was that HAMAS just fired at Beer Sheva. (https://www.timesofisrael.com/conflicting-claims-as-to-whether-hamas-leaders-okayed-rocket-fire-at-beersheba/). So, I am not sure that anyone is really listening to our Prime Minister, anymore.
Even more interesting is that the Media is bending over backwards to pretend that the ceasefire that "started" early Friday lasted through the continuing rocket fire emanating from Gaza. Look at the headline of this article in the "Times of Israel" (and it wasn't alone among media outlets): "Fresh rockets target south but shaky Gaza ceasefire appears to hold."
(https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/). The TOI article noted that the rocket fire was the fourth violation of the ceasefire. Either there is "ceasefire" or there isn't, or does the old, but not so-old joke still hold: "we cease and they fire?"
When does a stated policy become a thing of ridicule? When did we become an object of ridicule? Perhaps when it was claimed that if one rocket is fired from Gaza... we would return or attack with such ferocity.... or when the previous Prime Minister Olmert agreed to accept an economic separation between the Israelis living inside the area demarcated by the Green Line (the old Armistice Line) or outside it (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/eu-and-israel-end-trade-dispute-1.1152244) -- the end result being a process leading now to the European Court of Justice ruling that the building of Israel towns in Judea and Samaria -- the home of Jewish life going back to the time of the Bible is "characterized by the fact that they give concrete expression to a policy of population transfer conducted by that state outside its territory)" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-landmark-ruling-eus-top-court-says-settlement-product-labeling-mandatory/). Of course, the court forgot to note the irony that the only ones who engaged in population transfer were the Europeans. They transferred the Jews to the gas chambers.
It's not just us our policy makers and media that must have read George Orwell's book "1984." HAMAS says that that Israel will not choose when there will be a ceasefire; that the decision to carry out military campaigns remains in the hands of HAMAS (and Islamic Jihad), and “Israel bears the consequences and results of its ongoing aggression.” (https://www.timesofisrael.com/blamed-for-beersheba-rocket-fire-hamas-says-israel-wont-choose-timing-of-ops/).
So, let's summarize: the Israeli government claims that it will show "no mercy" and that "we will protect ourselves." But, we stopped the bombing very soon after it started and didn't attack HAMAS at all. The media claims that a "shaky" ceasefire still holds (https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/), but missile fire continues. HAMAS claims that it can attack us when ever it wants, but we would be the aggressor.
In the meantime, Islamic Jihad has developed a 300 kg bomb that can easily destroy a building (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-used-new-rocket-with-300kg-warhead-during-fighting-report/).
Fortunately, we don't have any real tornados here. At least that is something.
Of course, as long as our leadership continue to blow hot air, and our media reassures us that skies are clear and sunny, we've got nothing to worry about.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Weather It Is (Will It Ever Rain?)
Good Afternoon:
I am sure that many of you are asking: "will it ever rain?" I see a few folks wearing boots, regardless of the heat, but others are enjoying the no jacket weather during the day and no need for an air conditioner at night.
Ever since I went over to the dark-side of the weather -- and took it upon myself the responsibility to decide when it will and and won't rain, I seem to be getting into more and more trouble. You see, the farmers want rain, and folks are itching for a change, but my wife doesn't like winter. Really, I don't think that people really appreciate the pressure I am under, but one iron-rule of marriage is don't upset the wife. So, I've had to be extra sensitive about turning fall into winter. Or, maybe that's summer into fall. I really don't know, I just know that I'm not sleeping late enough since the clocks changed.
With all this going on, someone this morning slipped me a note with a drawing of an arrow on it, pointing to a rain cloud, and a date: November 21st. Then, he says something like:"you've got to break a few eggs to make an omelette," and I'm wondering if he's speaking about my barometer or my bones.
Needless to say, I was a bit disturbed by this incident (and it happened at the Synagogue, too!).
So, I told my wife that I can only keep this guy off of me until about late Thursday, but then I've got to do my job, switch the winds from southeasterly to northwesterly, bring in some humidity, bring some showers, and then really open the faucet by late next week... "Or what," she asked: "that's what I'm worried about," I told her.
Just to make his point, I found this pile of snails feasting on a plate of lettuce and other tasty vegetables in my front garden. I don't know if you know, but where I come from these are slugs -- only these are all dressed up -- and what's another name for slugs -- bullets. You get my point.
While I'm on the subject, I might mention that snails are perfect for kids who'd rather take care of a pet than hug it. I was left wondering, though, how these snails all ended up at and on the plate at the same time. I just don't think it can happen naturally (which does indeed make me worry -- more). Snails move at a top speed of 1 meter per hour, and I find it it very hard to believe that these snails were just waiting for that plate of vegetables to appear in our garden. The only thing I can think of is that their antennae eyes also serve as radio-transmitters, and they must have a few lookouts ready to spread the word. From there, it's just a slimy slide away down the spider silk-line to dinner.
I really hope that they won't mind the rain.
Barry Lynn
I am sure that many of you are asking: "will it ever rain?" I see a few folks wearing boots, regardless of the heat, but others are enjoying the no jacket weather during the day and no need for an air conditioner at night.
Ever since I went over to the dark-side of the weather -- and took it upon myself the responsibility to decide when it will and and won't rain, I seem to be getting into more and more trouble. You see, the farmers want rain, and folks are itching for a change, but my wife doesn't like winter. Really, I don't think that people really appreciate the pressure I am under, but one iron-rule of marriage is don't upset the wife. So, I've had to be extra sensitive about turning fall into winter. Or, maybe that's summer into fall. I really don't know, I just know that I'm not sleeping late enough since the clocks changed.
With all this going on, someone this morning slipped me a note with a drawing of an arrow on it, pointing to a rain cloud, and a date: November 21st. Then, he says something like:"you've got to break a few eggs to make an omelette," and I'm wondering if he's speaking about my barometer or my bones.
Needless to say, I was a bit disturbed by this incident (and it happened at the Synagogue, too!).
So, I told my wife that I can only keep this guy off of me until about late Thursday, but then I've got to do my job, switch the winds from southeasterly to northwesterly, bring in some humidity, bring some showers, and then really open the faucet by late next week... "Or what," she asked: "that's what I'm worried about," I told her.
Just to make his point, I found this pile of snails feasting on a plate of lettuce and other tasty vegetables in my front garden. I don't know if you know, but where I come from these are slugs -- only these are all dressed up -- and what's another name for slugs -- bullets. You get my point.
While I'm on the subject, I might mention that snails are perfect for kids who'd rather take care of a pet than hug it. I was left wondering, though, how these snails all ended up at and on the plate at the same time. I just don't think it can happen naturally (which does indeed make me worry -- more). Snails move at a top speed of 1 meter per hour, and I find it it very hard to believe that these snails were just waiting for that plate of vegetables to appear in our garden. The only thing I can think of is that their antennae eyes also serve as radio-transmitters, and they must have a few lookouts ready to spread the word. From there, it's just a slimy slide away down the spider silk-line to dinner.
I really hope that they won't mind the rain.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Weather It Is (Summer of Winter)
Good Evening:
Summer or winter -- you decide. Seems like the mornings are getting colder as we move each day towards the official start of winter. In fact, our next light rain should be on the way to start next week. So, the weather will continue to feel like it should -- fall moving into winter.
Yet, after our early, rainy start to next week, temperatures should rise by five or six degrees as winds switch from northwest to easterly. Just when you want to lock the door on the summer wardrobe, someone will change the lock, and that will be a good thing. After all, who wants to be dressed too warmly when the weather isn't cooperating?
Moreover, the latest seasonal forecast from the ECMWF (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) shows a warmer than normal November, but heavier than normal rain amounts. Yet, that should be followed by a drier December and January, with temperatures near or above normal. What happened to our rainy winter?
Of course, this is all talk, and who really knows what the weather will bring. In fact, you know when you're in trouble when someone tells the weatherman to look out the window. That happened to me today.
Of course, it's hard enough to keep one's eyes open when the clocks change, especially for morning people who find themselves again waking up at 4 in the morning, instead of an early, with the birds 5 A.M. Just to make things worse, my wife pointed out that our neighbor is even more tired than normal because he's been getting up really early to pray, and followed this by a comment suggesting that it looks like there's even less hair on my head than just last month. I may have reached the moment in life when a haircut makes you look life you've got more hair than before.
As you know, people tend to minimize their own faults, while amplifying the faults of others. While that seems obvious, it tends to make for unrealistic expectations between couples. One half of a couple can think that they can do better, if they just find someone who just has so and so characteristics, forgetting that they are expecting all the good qualities of their partner to magically pass to the other (new) person.
This led me to ask the existential question: if you could trade up for a new wife or a new car, what should you do? This question didn't come out of the blue, but was part of a very deep and serious discussion about marriage, sometime difficulties in married life, and the rising divorce rate.
While it is true that not all people are good people, and not all pairings are good pairings, the answer is: "trade up for a new car." You know what you're getting and the two of you can enjoy a country ride together. In fact, doing things together, is sometimes the best answer. You might just find out how much you enjoy your spouse's company.
Barry Lynn
Summer or winter -- you decide. Seems like the mornings are getting colder as we move each day towards the official start of winter. In fact, our next light rain should be on the way to start next week. So, the weather will continue to feel like it should -- fall moving into winter.
Yet, after our early, rainy start to next week, temperatures should rise by five or six degrees as winds switch from northwest to easterly. Just when you want to lock the door on the summer wardrobe, someone will change the lock, and that will be a good thing. After all, who wants to be dressed too warmly when the weather isn't cooperating?
Moreover, the latest seasonal forecast from the ECMWF (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) shows a warmer than normal November, but heavier than normal rain amounts. Yet, that should be followed by a drier December and January, with temperatures near or above normal. What happened to our rainy winter?
Of course, this is all talk, and who really knows what the weather will bring. In fact, you know when you're in trouble when someone tells the weatherman to look out the window. That happened to me today.
Of course, it's hard enough to keep one's eyes open when the clocks change, especially for morning people who find themselves again waking up at 4 in the morning, instead of an early, with the birds 5 A.M. Just to make things worse, my wife pointed out that our neighbor is even more tired than normal because he's been getting up really early to pray, and followed this by a comment suggesting that it looks like there's even less hair on my head than just last month. I may have reached the moment in life when a haircut makes you look life you've got more hair than before.
As you know, people tend to minimize their own faults, while amplifying the faults of others. While that seems obvious, it tends to make for unrealistic expectations between couples. One half of a couple can think that they can do better, if they just find someone who just has so and so characteristics, forgetting that they are expecting all the good qualities of their partner to magically pass to the other (new) person.
This led me to ask the existential question: if you could trade up for a new wife or a new car, what should you do? This question didn't come out of the blue, but was part of a very deep and serious discussion about marriage, sometime difficulties in married life, and the rising divorce rate.
While it is true that not all people are good people, and not all pairings are good pairings, the answer is: "trade up for a new car." You know what you're getting and the two of you can enjoy a country ride together. In fact, doing things together, is sometimes the best answer. You might just find out how much you enjoy your spouse's company.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 25, 2019
Weather It Is (Tropical Storm Warning)
Good Shabbat Eve (almost):
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
Weather It Is (Medicane)
Good Afternoon:
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
Monday, October 21, 2019
Weather It Is (Fall Storms)
Good Evening:
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 11, 2019
Weather It Is (Seems Too Hot)
Good Afternoon:
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Weather It Is (Moving Along)
Good Afternoon:
We're moving along into fall, and the weather is changing accordingly. The seasonal forecast from the "ECMWF" (seasonal forecasting system: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) continues to show above normal temperatures through November, but increasingly above normal rain amounts as we move from October to November, and then November to December. December's temperatures should be average, so perhaps we'll see a late December snow. That's exciting news, but you can also note that January is supposed to be drier than normal.
We'll have to wait and see if these forecasts are going to be accurate; I hope we don't have to wait similarly as long to see what Knesset parties will make up our new government.
One thing we do know is that the days just prior to Yom Kippur are going to be quite a bit cooler than these past few days, but Yom Kippur itself could be a tad too warm. Moreover, there may even be warmer days that follow. Still, temperatures in the upper atmosphere are forecast to fall quite steadily, and we'll need these temperatures to be relatively low before we can get any substantial fall rains.
Even though the future is uncertain, the past seems less so. For instance, the weather days of Rosh HaShanah were really quite nice. I saw plenty of people outdoors, and most seems quite happy to be heading home around lunch time after the morning Shofar blowing. Of course, we all know that the day long (if not longer) prayers of Yom Kippur will soon be upon us. I have it on good authority that there are some synagogues that pray so slowly they don't even finish by nightfall, and that there are a few that continue all the way to Passover. That's what's called dedication, especially since the fast doesn't end until the shofar blowing at the end of services.
It's strange to see people with such dedication, but a stranger thing happened to me. I had a broken dryer fixed about the same time that my laundry room fan broke. The heating element was broken and the fan didn't spin fast enough to remove the room humidity (the latter independently confirmed). Of course, a day or so later I called the repair-person to let him know that the element was broken again, and of course he came and pointed out that it was working fine. Strangely enough the fan also works fine again.
There are three possibilities that can explain these strange happenings. The first is that both the dryer and fan fixed themselves. The second is that I was mistaken about the dryer -- but this doesn't explain the broken fan that now works even though no one came to fix it. The third is that our dryer was temporarily replaced with a broken dryer from another universe, and some poor soul now has both a broken dryer and a broken laundry room fan.
I think that the third option is the most likely, but I'd rather spend my next few months forecasting weather (I can hypothesize, pontificate, and expound, and even be wrong -- yet still have a shred of credibility), then speculate about dryers that fix themselves.
Have a nice holiday.
Barry Lynn
We're moving along into fall, and the weather is changing accordingly. The seasonal forecast from the "ECMWF" (seasonal forecasting system: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) continues to show above normal temperatures through November, but increasingly above normal rain amounts as we move from October to November, and then November to December. December's temperatures should be average, so perhaps we'll see a late December snow. That's exciting news, but you can also note that January is supposed to be drier than normal.
We'll have to wait and see if these forecasts are going to be accurate; I hope we don't have to wait similarly as long to see what Knesset parties will make up our new government.
One thing we do know is that the days just prior to Yom Kippur are going to be quite a bit cooler than these past few days, but Yom Kippur itself could be a tad too warm. Moreover, there may even be warmer days that follow. Still, temperatures in the upper atmosphere are forecast to fall quite steadily, and we'll need these temperatures to be relatively low before we can get any substantial fall rains.
Even though the future is uncertain, the past seems less so. For instance, the weather days of Rosh HaShanah were really quite nice. I saw plenty of people outdoors, and most seems quite happy to be heading home around lunch time after the morning Shofar blowing. Of course, we all know that the day long (if not longer) prayers of Yom Kippur will soon be upon us. I have it on good authority that there are some synagogues that pray so slowly they don't even finish by nightfall, and that there are a few that continue all the way to Passover. That's what's called dedication, especially since the fast doesn't end until the shofar blowing at the end of services.
It's strange to see people with such dedication, but a stranger thing happened to me. I had a broken dryer fixed about the same time that my laundry room fan broke. The heating element was broken and the fan didn't spin fast enough to remove the room humidity (the latter independently confirmed). Of course, a day or so later I called the repair-person to let him know that the element was broken again, and of course he came and pointed out that it was working fine. Strangely enough the fan also works fine again.
There are three possibilities that can explain these strange happenings. The first is that both the dryer and fan fixed themselves. The second is that I was mistaken about the dryer -- but this doesn't explain the broken fan that now works even though no one came to fix it. The third is that our dryer was temporarily replaced with a broken dryer from another universe, and some poor soul now has both a broken dryer and a broken laundry room fan.
I think that the third option is the most likely, but I'd rather spend my next few months forecasting weather (I can hypothesize, pontificate, and expound, and even be wrong -- yet still have a shred of credibility), then speculate about dryers that fix themselves.
Have a nice holiday.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Weather It Is (Changes Are A-Foot)
Good Evening:
"Tell no one we have spoken, for all shall reveal itself in due course (Everafter: A Cinderella Story)." One has the feeling that whether we speak about it or not, we're pretty much going to find out what happens next Tuesday, election Day, by sometime next Wednesday. If we wait a few more months, we'll also know whether this coming winter will be rainy just like the last.
Actually, the next two weeks pretty much look the same. Some meandering of the temperatures up and down -- just like the poll numbers -- but nothing really changing over time. Election day should be quite nice, weatherwise. However, if we head up to the upper atmosphere (at 500 mb), we'll find a dramatic decrease sometime before election day. This means the upper air circulation associated with the Indian Monsoon is weakening and moving away from our area, and our skies can now start to produce puffy cumulus clouds as a prelude to fall and winter.
Interestingly, there are plenty of rumors about this coming fall and winter's weather. We heard that it's going to be very rainy in the next few months from those who prefer to reveal what will be instead of to wait until it actually happens. The American forecast model actually shows warmer and drier weather than usual, but the more reliable European model shows a fairly rainy fall with temperatures a bit warmer than usual. December is forecast to be have quite heavier than normal rain amounts, with normal temperatures. The New Year could bring in normal temperatures and normal amounts of rain.
The predictions are also out for this Tuesday's election -- and they show no change from the previous election result.
Afterall, the folks down south have been living with the the occasional and not so occasional missile attack for the last several years, so why should more people vote for the government than before. Perhaps than it was poetic justice that our Prime Minister had to be rushed off the stage because of such an attack. "You can't stop me," they probably shouted from somewhere in Gaza.
Of course, the true response would be: we didn't try because we'd rather live (or let someone else live with) the situation than take concrete and difficult steps to stop the attacks.
While focused on its reelection, one wonders if our government ever stops to think that you can only "buy" quiet so long before you just can't. Like a Ponzi scheme that can only be sustained so long, I worry that the payoffs will one day be too small to maintain the quiet, and then it won't be safe for our future Prime Minister to campaign in Tel-Aviv as well.
As for the rest of us, we'll be like all those Ponzi scheme losers. Out of luck, but hopefully not out of life as well.
Barry Lynn
"Tell no one we have spoken, for all shall reveal itself in due course (Everafter: A Cinderella Story)." One has the feeling that whether we speak about it or not, we're pretty much going to find out what happens next Tuesday, election Day, by sometime next Wednesday. If we wait a few more months, we'll also know whether this coming winter will be rainy just like the last.
Actually, the next two weeks pretty much look the same. Some meandering of the temperatures up and down -- just like the poll numbers -- but nothing really changing over time. Election day should be quite nice, weatherwise. However, if we head up to the upper atmosphere (at 500 mb), we'll find a dramatic decrease sometime before election day. This means the upper air circulation associated with the Indian Monsoon is weakening and moving away from our area, and our skies can now start to produce puffy cumulus clouds as a prelude to fall and winter.
Interestingly, there are plenty of rumors about this coming fall and winter's weather. We heard that it's going to be very rainy in the next few months from those who prefer to reveal what will be instead of to wait until it actually happens. The American forecast model actually shows warmer and drier weather than usual, but the more reliable European model shows a fairly rainy fall with temperatures a bit warmer than usual. December is forecast to be have quite heavier than normal rain amounts, with normal temperatures. The New Year could bring in normal temperatures and normal amounts of rain.
The predictions are also out for this Tuesday's election -- and they show no change from the previous election result.
Afterall, the folks down south have been living with the the occasional and not so occasional missile attack for the last several years, so why should more people vote for the government than before. Perhaps than it was poetic justice that our Prime Minister had to be rushed off the stage because of such an attack. "You can't stop me," they probably shouted from somewhere in Gaza.
Of course, the true response would be: we didn't try because we'd rather live (or let someone else live with) the situation than take concrete and difficult steps to stop the attacks.
While focused on its reelection, one wonders if our government ever stops to think that you can only "buy" quiet so long before you just can't. Like a Ponzi scheme that can only be sustained so long, I worry that the payoffs will one day be too small to maintain the quiet, and then it won't be safe for our future Prime Minister to campaign in Tel-Aviv as well.
As for the rest of us, we'll be like all those Ponzi scheme losers. Out of luck, but hopefully not out of life as well.
Barry Lynn
Friday, August 23, 2019
Weather It Is (Summer Heat)
Good Afternoon:
They call them the "Dog Days of Summer," and our own dog was quick to take advantage of the heat to stretch out in the sun. She actually objects to the fact that the Romans named these days after the brightest star in the sky: the Star Sirius, or the "Dog Star," rather than her ancestors.
The heat she so enjoys has been courtesy of low pressure situated to our east and a persistent counter-clockwise flow around it. Such winds are good to bring the heat, and they also limit the build up of wave heights, so this is a perfect time to go to the beach. By the way, we leave our dog at home because nothing smells worse than a dog that "smells like a dog" (and wet at that).
While slightly cooler weather may meet our mid-week time, we can expect a return to hotter weather again as the month of August ends, and turns into September.
Really -- it's hot, and it was actually a good time to head over to Cinema City in Jerusalem for a movie. We saw "Dora and the Lost City of Gold." I thought that it would be a movie for our teenage girls, but I couldn't stop laughing. In fact, folks young and not so were laughing so loudly it was sometimes hard to hear the movie.
Yet, it was both a fun movie, and a funny -- make you laugh movie, especially when the producers mixed real live scenes with a bit of fantasy. It also had an interesting story line, to keep you on the edge of your seat.
One interesting thing about movies is that we begin to feel that they are happening to us, or at least to the characters in the movie. In fact, if we think back about the movies we saw, our minds will fill in the scenes between the actual movie scenes -- because that is what happens to us in real life. We actually have to eat, burp, etc, and it takes more than a moment to go from one place to another. We actually create a reality for these characters that never existed.
Newspapers (writers and editors) also try to shape our perception of events, but in this case real events. For example, The New York Times made its top of the page news when Israel refused entry to the two congresswomen from Minnesota (all day). They even were sure to mention Congresswoman Tlaib's vile tweet when she refused to visit her grandmother. I thought the real news was that her supporters didn't even want her to visit her grandmother if it means actually speaking with an Israeli representative to do so. I guess she was going to parachute out of her plane instead of landing at Ben-Gurion Airport, first. When explaining the law used to bar the two women, The New York Times continued their biased reporting when they added the word "just" as in the decision to bar them "rests on a law passed just two years ago." (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/middleeast/bds-israel-boycott.html). The editors and writers of the times were really trying to put out the message that Israel is a really bad place and the law is not really a valid law since it was passed "recently." Where else would they write that?
Here, our own reality is quite sad. A young man was murdered outside our town, just on the road to the town across the hill. Two neighbors from the town over were just run-over. A young woman was just murdered in an explosion while out for a swim. Ihttps://www.timesofisrael.com/three-israelis-seriously-hurt-in-explosion-at-west-bank-spring/).
In response, our Prime Minister says that: "We will reach them. Our long arm will pay them their dues.” His word were not IRONY? Avi Issachoroff points out that our Prime Minister and his government have transferred 10s of millions of dollars to buy quiet from Gaza (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/selling-the-fantasy-of-transfer/). But the money used to buy quiet in Gaza is being used to murder Israelis in Judea and Samaria. We're paying all right -- both ways.
We all know that movies are not truly reality, but to paraphrase my late mother-in-law: time has passed and new generations have arisen, but there has always been terrorism -- and now our own policies facilitate its vile ends.
Barry Lynn
They call them the "Dog Days of Summer," and our own dog was quick to take advantage of the heat to stretch out in the sun. She actually objects to the fact that the Romans named these days after the brightest star in the sky: the Star Sirius, or the "Dog Star," rather than her ancestors.
The heat she so enjoys has been courtesy of low pressure situated to our east and a persistent counter-clockwise flow around it. Such winds are good to bring the heat, and they also limit the build up of wave heights, so this is a perfect time to go to the beach. By the way, we leave our dog at home because nothing smells worse than a dog that "smells like a dog" (and wet at that).
While slightly cooler weather may meet our mid-week time, we can expect a return to hotter weather again as the month of August ends, and turns into September.
Really -- it's hot, and it was actually a good time to head over to Cinema City in Jerusalem for a movie. We saw "Dora and the Lost City of Gold." I thought that it would be a movie for our teenage girls, but I couldn't stop laughing. In fact, folks young and not so were laughing so loudly it was sometimes hard to hear the movie.
Yet, it was both a fun movie, and a funny -- make you laugh movie, especially when the producers mixed real live scenes with a bit of fantasy. It also had an interesting story line, to keep you on the edge of your seat.
One interesting thing about movies is that we begin to feel that they are happening to us, or at least to the characters in the movie. In fact, if we think back about the movies we saw, our minds will fill in the scenes between the actual movie scenes -- because that is what happens to us in real life. We actually have to eat, burp, etc, and it takes more than a moment to go from one place to another. We actually create a reality for these characters that never existed.
Newspapers (writers and editors) also try to shape our perception of events, but in this case real events. For example, The New York Times made its top of the page news when Israel refused entry to the two congresswomen from Minnesota (all day). They even were sure to mention Congresswoman Tlaib's vile tweet when she refused to visit her grandmother. I thought the real news was that her supporters didn't even want her to visit her grandmother if it means actually speaking with an Israeli representative to do so. I guess she was going to parachute out of her plane instead of landing at Ben-Gurion Airport, first. When explaining the law used to bar the two women, The New York Times continued their biased reporting when they added the word "just" as in the decision to bar them "rests on a law passed just two years ago." (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/middleeast/bds-israel-boycott.html). The editors and writers of the times were really trying to put out the message that Israel is a really bad place and the law is not really a valid law since it was passed "recently." Where else would they write that?
Here, our own reality is quite sad. A young man was murdered outside our town, just on the road to the town across the hill. Two neighbors from the town over were just run-over. A young woman was just murdered in an explosion while out for a swim. Ihttps://www.timesofisrael.com/three-israelis-seriously-hurt-in-explosion-at-west-bank-spring/).
In response, our Prime Minister says that: "We will reach them. Our long arm will pay them their dues.” His word were not IRONY? Avi Issachoroff points out that our Prime Minister and his government have transferred 10s of millions of dollars to buy quiet from Gaza (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/selling-the-fantasy-of-transfer/). But the money used to buy quiet in Gaza is being used to murder Israelis in Judea and Samaria. We're paying all right -- both ways.
We all know that movies are not truly reality, but to paraphrase my late mother-in-law: time has passed and new generations have arisen, but there has always been terrorism -- and now our own policies facilitate its vile ends.
Barry Lynn
Friday, July 26, 2019
Weather It Is (Stings Like a Bee)
Good Morning:
Europe is sweltering under intense heat. It must certainly be a manifestation of global warming (run amok). After all, where could such hot temperatures come from?
It turns out that while Europe is sweltering other places are not, and are actually unusually cool for summertime temperatures. For instance, countries in the eastern Mediterranean -- on the other side of the ridge located along the western spine of Europe -- are benefiting from winds blowing from a more northerly direction. Moreover, it doesn't look next week's warmth will last more than a couple of days before temperatures cool back down both in coastal areas and the Jerusalem mountains. I just came back from Atlanta Georgia which was so cool we almost needed to put on a light coat as evening set in. Unheard of in July!
So, is it because of global warming? The very strong and northward penetrating ridge of hot air over Europe is actually adjacent to an unusually deep and cold low pressure system west of England -- but no one but jumping fishes live over the ocean. The world has warmed since the 1970s (when it was unusually chilly), and the added energy could be amplifying the waviness of the circulation patterns. Yet, the warmth is no where near what was predicted by the climate change models, which also have failed to predict the "ups and downs" of the temperature changes over the last 20 or so years.
So, what is the reality of the situation? What is our own reality that we personally experience?
One of the laws of Kashrut is that bugs, like crabs, etc, are not kosher and should not be eaten. This morning I picked some wild raspberries, gave them a quick glance, and then ate them in one lump. I told myself that they tasted really good, but wondered how I could possibly tell if I had eaten a bug.
Then, shortly thereafter, a very large bug flew into my mouth (a person has to breathe while running). I managed to eventually cough the bug out, or perhaps the bug flew out on its own, but not before the bug-bee stung the inside of my mouth. It was one angry bee, and my mouth was perhaps too big.
Some years ago, Russell Baker wonder where all the lost socks went, and so have others (https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-xpm-20090209-2009-02-09-0902080158-story.html). Surely, they haven't just disappeared!
Or, had they? Perhaps there is a whole slew of unmatched socks in someone's reality. A colleague of mine lost his keys, only to find them the next day in a pocket of his bag he had already checked a dozen times. My missing coat eventually "showed-up," and so have other things that had no right being found in the place where they were supposedly lost.
A good number of folks read books, and a good number go to movies. Did you ever try to change the ending of a book or movie after you've read it or watched it, but didn't like the ending? You can't do it, yet we all know that fictional books and movies are not real because the characters never go to the bathroom.
Are dreams real? They certainly seem so. Yet, most of us usually wake up from them.
I and many others suppose that thing that are real are things that we observe. But is this true? For instance, when very small particles are shot one at a time at 2 small slits, they will produce a wave like pattern on a detector. However, when scientists try to observed which slit the particle goes through, the wave like pattern disappears (called "wave function collapse"). This happens even if the second slit is opened after the particle should have passed through the the first slit! (https://physicsworld.com/a/do-atoms-going-through-a-double-slit-know-if-they-are-being-observed/)
The end result is that one needs to accept "backwards causation," or (perhaps) the idea of Everett that the wave-function doesn't collapse when an observation is made, but universes splits into different realities (I would be writing from one of them, but you might be reading this from another). If you wonder where could all of these universes be, just remember that "our" universe is supposedly expanding (but into what)?
One idea in Jewish thought is that people are rewarded or punished for their behavior -- and if not in this world then in the world that exists after death. Yet, there is also an idea that people do not really have free choice, which would ironically be consistent with the idea that we are just part of a probability continuum that describes some deeper reality (Everett's many world hypothesis). I don't know which idea of reality is correct, but I do know that we have a number of unmatched socks and that the bee stung me -- and that it hurts.
Barry Lynn
Europe is sweltering under intense heat. It must certainly be a manifestation of global warming (run amok). After all, where could such hot temperatures come from?
It turns out that while Europe is sweltering other places are not, and are actually unusually cool for summertime temperatures. For instance, countries in the eastern Mediterranean -- on the other side of the ridge located along the western spine of Europe -- are benefiting from winds blowing from a more northerly direction. Moreover, it doesn't look next week's warmth will last more than a couple of days before temperatures cool back down both in coastal areas and the Jerusalem mountains. I just came back from Atlanta Georgia which was so cool we almost needed to put on a light coat as evening set in. Unheard of in July!
So, is it because of global warming? The very strong and northward penetrating ridge of hot air over Europe is actually adjacent to an unusually deep and cold low pressure system west of England -- but no one but jumping fishes live over the ocean. The world has warmed since the 1970s (when it was unusually chilly), and the added energy could be amplifying the waviness of the circulation patterns. Yet, the warmth is no where near what was predicted by the climate change models, which also have failed to predict the "ups and downs" of the temperature changes over the last 20 or so years.
So, what is the reality of the situation? What is our own reality that we personally experience?
One of the laws of Kashrut is that bugs, like crabs, etc, are not kosher and should not be eaten. This morning I picked some wild raspberries, gave them a quick glance, and then ate them in one lump. I told myself that they tasted really good, but wondered how I could possibly tell if I had eaten a bug.
Then, shortly thereafter, a very large bug flew into my mouth (a person has to breathe while running). I managed to eventually cough the bug out, or perhaps the bug flew out on its own, but not before the bug-bee stung the inside of my mouth. It was one angry bee, and my mouth was perhaps too big.
Some years ago, Russell Baker wonder where all the lost socks went, and so have others (https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-xpm-20090209-2009-02-09-0902080158-story.html). Surely, they haven't just disappeared!
Or, had they? Perhaps there is a whole slew of unmatched socks in someone's reality. A colleague of mine lost his keys, only to find them the next day in a pocket of his bag he had already checked a dozen times. My missing coat eventually "showed-up," and so have other things that had no right being found in the place where they were supposedly lost.
A good number of folks read books, and a good number go to movies. Did you ever try to change the ending of a book or movie after you've read it or watched it, but didn't like the ending? You can't do it, yet we all know that fictional books and movies are not real because the characters never go to the bathroom.
Are dreams real? They certainly seem so. Yet, most of us usually wake up from them.
I and many others suppose that thing that are real are things that we observe. But is this true? For instance, when very small particles are shot one at a time at 2 small slits, they will produce a wave like pattern on a detector. However, when scientists try to observed which slit the particle goes through, the wave like pattern disappears (called "wave function collapse"). This happens even if the second slit is opened after the particle should have passed through the the first slit! (https://physicsworld.com/a/do-atoms-going-through-a-double-slit-know-if-they-are-being-observed/)
The end result is that one needs to accept "backwards causation," or (perhaps) the idea of Everett that the wave-function doesn't collapse when an observation is made, but universes splits into different realities (I would be writing from one of them, but you might be reading this from another). If you wonder where could all of these universes be, just remember that "our" universe is supposedly expanding (but into what)?
One idea in Jewish thought is that people are rewarded or punished for their behavior -- and if not in this world then in the world that exists after death. Yet, there is also an idea that people do not really have free choice, which would ironically be consistent with the idea that we are just part of a probability continuum that describes some deeper reality (Everett's many world hypothesis). I don't know which idea of reality is correct, but I do know that we have a number of unmatched socks and that the bee stung me -- and that it hurts.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, June 13, 2019
Weather It Is (Let's Vote)
Good Afternoon:
I had the chance to visit Jaffa Street in Jerusalem today. After a quick appointment, my daughter and I passed through the Shuk. If you happen to live there, it's a great place to shop for just about anything fresh that you might need. You can even buy Chocolate Halva. If you don't live there, there is a new parking garage right near by -- just a two minute walk to the Shuk (near Rechov HaRav Shmuel Baruchk St).
We visited the a Ministry of Health center. There was a sign that said: "take care on our cleanliness" as you entered the bathroom, but someone forgot to fill the soap dispenser. Irony, to say the least.
One couldn't help but notice, though, the absolutely beautiful weather (we even slept the night with the window breeze). There are some clouds in the sky as well, as a weak trough of low pressure makes it way through our area. However, thunderstorms associated with the trough are located over Cyprus and Turkey -- not exactly in our backyard.
While the weather in the lower atmosphere meanders between hotter and not so hot summer weather, the middle and upper atmosphere are forecast to warm. This means that we'll be heading into Israeli summer, where temperatures are pleasantly warm, but skies remain mostly blue.
This could be the calm before the storm. I don't know if you noticed, but the government decided to stop all fishing in the waters of Gaza (punish!) because of the continued launch of incendiary balloons and even one balloon that exploded mid-air with a bomb attached to it. I wonder when we'll take away their balloons as well.
One our political parties, "Israeli Beitenu," actually decided to take a stand -- in favor or sharing the burden of protecting our country (with the Haredim). However, it is not clear if they decided on principle or just to stick it to the Prime Minister (in the hopes of deposing him in the next election).
Ironically, if it wasn't for the court ruling that the current law goes against the spirit of the Basic Laws (a pseudo constitution) then Mr. Lieberman wouldn't have had a leg to stand on. Yet, he doesn't seem to care very much for preserving the power of the court to overrule certain laws and regulations.
There seems to be an idea going around the learned folks that Democracy means the right of the majority to decide what's right and wrong, what's the law and what's unlawful.
Yet, a moment's thought will disprove this notion. The origin of Democracy evolved from an idea that the people should decide, rather than a king, authoritarian ruler, or dictator. However, one needs to ask: "who are the people?" They are individuals. Hence, there is a contradiction: how do you protect the individual from a group of other individuals who would write laws negating the purpose of a democracy in the first place.
This became obvious to those whose sole aim was to protect citizens and states from the tyranny of the Federal Government of the newly formed United States. After agreeing on a constitution, they soon realized that it wasn't sufficient: it enabled a "tyranny of the majority." For this reason, amendments were proposed and added to the constitution, which are referred to as the "Bill of Rights" (https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/billofrights). The Bill of Rights protect American citizens from arbitrary searches and seizures, excesses fines and punishments, cruel and unusual punishments, and guarantee the rights to practice religion without government interference, to assemble, to speak, and to petition the government and (most importantly) the courts.
The ultimate protector of the individual is the court, and the court requires the lawful power to stop government actions that trample the rights of the individual, regardless of whether that individuals is represented by the ruling party or not. (By the way, I do agree that our court selection process required changes (open and representative), which the previous Justice Minister succeeded in doing).
If there is a "court override" and truly the majority or ruling party has unlimited power to legislate, then the ultimate expression of this power is to pass a law invalidating the individuals right to choose new representatives (cancelling elections outright) or to ensconce the leader of the government for life (as in China). Or, if this is not graphic enough: pass laws legalizing the murder of the Jewish people -- as done in Nazi Germany.
Be careful what you wish for,
Barry Lynn
I had the chance to visit Jaffa Street in Jerusalem today. After a quick appointment, my daughter and I passed through the Shuk. If you happen to live there, it's a great place to shop for just about anything fresh that you might need. You can even buy Chocolate Halva. If you don't live there, there is a new parking garage right near by -- just a two minute walk to the Shuk (near Rechov HaRav Shmuel Baruchk St).
We visited the a Ministry of Health center. There was a sign that said: "take care on our cleanliness" as you entered the bathroom, but someone forgot to fill the soap dispenser. Irony, to say the least.
One couldn't help but notice, though, the absolutely beautiful weather (we even slept the night with the window breeze). There are some clouds in the sky as well, as a weak trough of low pressure makes it way through our area. However, thunderstorms associated with the trough are located over Cyprus and Turkey -- not exactly in our backyard.
While the weather in the lower atmosphere meanders between hotter and not so hot summer weather, the middle and upper atmosphere are forecast to warm. This means that we'll be heading into Israeli summer, where temperatures are pleasantly warm, but skies remain mostly blue.
This could be the calm before the storm. I don't know if you noticed, but the government decided to stop all fishing in the waters of Gaza (punish!) because of the continued launch of incendiary balloons and even one balloon that exploded mid-air with a bomb attached to it. I wonder when we'll take away their balloons as well.
One our political parties, "Israeli Beitenu," actually decided to take a stand -- in favor or sharing the burden of protecting our country (with the Haredim). However, it is not clear if they decided on principle or just to stick it to the Prime Minister (in the hopes of deposing him in the next election).
Ironically, if it wasn't for the court ruling that the current law goes against the spirit of the Basic Laws (a pseudo constitution) then Mr. Lieberman wouldn't have had a leg to stand on. Yet, he doesn't seem to care very much for preserving the power of the court to overrule certain laws and regulations.
There seems to be an idea going around the learned folks that Democracy means the right of the majority to decide what's right and wrong, what's the law and what's unlawful.
Yet, a moment's thought will disprove this notion. The origin of Democracy evolved from an idea that the people should decide, rather than a king, authoritarian ruler, or dictator. However, one needs to ask: "who are the people?" They are individuals. Hence, there is a contradiction: how do you protect the individual from a group of other individuals who would write laws negating the purpose of a democracy in the first place.
This became obvious to those whose sole aim was to protect citizens and states from the tyranny of the Federal Government of the newly formed United States. After agreeing on a constitution, they soon realized that it wasn't sufficient: it enabled a "tyranny of the majority." For this reason, amendments were proposed and added to the constitution, which are referred to as the "Bill of Rights" (https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/billofrights). The Bill of Rights protect American citizens from arbitrary searches and seizures, excesses fines and punishments, cruel and unusual punishments, and guarantee the rights to practice religion without government interference, to assemble, to speak, and to petition the government and (most importantly) the courts.
The ultimate protector of the individual is the court, and the court requires the lawful power to stop government actions that trample the rights of the individual, regardless of whether that individuals is represented by the ruling party or not. (By the way, I do agree that our court selection process required changes (open and representative), which the previous Justice Minister succeeded in doing).
If there is a "court override" and truly the majority or ruling party has unlimited power to legislate, then the ultimate expression of this power is to pass a law invalidating the individuals right to choose new representatives (cancelling elections outright) or to ensconce the leader of the government for life (as in China). Or, if this is not graphic enough: pass laws legalizing the murder of the Jewish people -- as done in Nazi Germany.
Be careful what you wish for,
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 17, 2019
Weather It Is (High Heat)
Good Afternoon:
Cooler, westerly winds are upon us this Shabbat. They will bring a welcome respite of a few days from the heat. However, On Monday, high pressure will begin to build eastward off the African continent. It will intensify during the week, and the heat should peak up on or about Shabbat.
Our local area model in combination with the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests that there is a 100% chance that temperatures will be between 36 and 40 degrees Celcius in Jerusalem on Friday. In the coastal plains (just eastward of the sea-breeze), temperatures could exceed 40 C.
A cool front should pass through late Friday or Shabbat, returning temperatures to more comfortable levels.
There could even be a few rain showers.
Recently, there was a lot of hot air blowing from the pages of the MA'AN News Agency (a Palestinian Authority "mouthpiece." The headline said: "Right-wing Israelis storm Solomon's Pools near Bethlehem." The article noted that dozens of "settlers" entered and held religious prayers at Solomon's pools (most likely built by King Herod, named after the "Biblical Solomon."). They were protected by "heavily armed Israeli forces."
It all sounds very sinister.
Except that it wasn't.
It turns out that during the Oslo negotiations, those doing the negotiating on the Israel side were not very aware of Jewish history, and placed both the pools and the Rachel's Cave on their (Palestinian) side of the map. When Chanan Porat (deceased; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Porat) objected, the line was drawn correctly at Rachel's Cave, but through the name on the map, rather than around the pools themselves. So, it came to be that our visit to the edge of the pool may have crossed into "Area A."
A large group, of which I was part, was excited to visit the pools on the morning of Israeli Independence Day. Our homes are located in Gush Etzion, which was populated with Jewish towns until they were destroyed during the Arab Israeli war of 1948. We actually live in nice homes with gardens, and schools, and there are restaurants and stores. I usually shave as well, although some people have beards and would fit nicely in The New York Times "Settler" exhibit page.
That morning, we climbed down the mountain from Efrat and made our way to peek in one of the lower pools. It was pretty awesome to see such a large pool, but it would have been nicer if it was full of water and someone was available from whom to rent fishing rods or a paddle boat.
The article mentioned, as noted, that we were accompanied by soldiers. This was actually so we wouldn't be killed by our neighbors (the Palestinians) -- a technicality, but an important one.
The article also noted that "the internationally recognized Palestinian territories have been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. " Actually, two countries recognized Jordan's occupation of the "West Bank" (or Judea and Samaria) prior to 1967 (without any reference to Palestinians). Since, then, the ownership of the land has been in dispute. The international community (and even many Israelis) would like to give at least part of the land to the Palestinians, but they won't accept it unless they get all the rest (on both sides of the old Armistice line).
It turns out that immediately after World War II the major powers were hoping to divide the land between Jordan and the Mediterranean among Jews and local Arabs (now, referred to as Palestinians). But, when the latter (and surrounding Arab States) refused to countenance any Jewish independence in what the Romans named "Palestine," the Palestinians lost their chance for an independent state. Ironically, it wasn't Israel that prevented the Palestinians from having their own state in part of the land upon the signing of the Armistice agreement in 1949, but the Egyptians and Jordanians, who ruled both Gaza and the West Bank (as well as part of Jerusalem), respectively, until 1967.
These governments supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in their quest to destroy the State of Israel -- even the one that existed prior to the 1967 war. A quest that hasn't changed until now.
Barry Lynn
Cooler, westerly winds are upon us this Shabbat. They will bring a welcome respite of a few days from the heat. However, On Monday, high pressure will begin to build eastward off the African continent. It will intensify during the week, and the heat should peak up on or about Shabbat.
Our local area model in combination with the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests that there is a 100% chance that temperatures will be between 36 and 40 degrees Celcius in Jerusalem on Friday. In the coastal plains (just eastward of the sea-breeze), temperatures could exceed 40 C.
A cool front should pass through late Friday or Shabbat, returning temperatures to more comfortable levels.
There could even be a few rain showers.
Recently, there was a lot of hot air blowing from the pages of the MA'AN News Agency (a Palestinian Authority "mouthpiece." The headline said: "Right-wing Israelis storm Solomon's Pools near Bethlehem." The article noted that dozens of "settlers" entered and held religious prayers at Solomon's pools (most likely built by King Herod, named after the "Biblical Solomon."). They were protected by "heavily armed Israeli forces."
It all sounds very sinister.
Except that it wasn't.
It turns out that during the Oslo negotiations, those doing the negotiating on the Israel side were not very aware of Jewish history, and placed both the pools and the Rachel's Cave on their (Palestinian) side of the map. When Chanan Porat (deceased; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Porat) objected, the line was drawn correctly at Rachel's Cave, but through the name on the map, rather than around the pools themselves. So, it came to be that our visit to the edge of the pool may have crossed into "Area A."
A large group, of which I was part, was excited to visit the pools on the morning of Israeli Independence Day. Our homes are located in Gush Etzion, which was populated with Jewish towns until they were destroyed during the Arab Israeli war of 1948. We actually live in nice homes with gardens, and schools, and there are restaurants and stores. I usually shave as well, although some people have beards and would fit nicely in The New York Times "Settler" exhibit page.
That morning, we climbed down the mountain from Efrat and made our way to peek in one of the lower pools. It was pretty awesome to see such a large pool, but it would have been nicer if it was full of water and someone was available from whom to rent fishing rods or a paddle boat.
The article mentioned, as noted, that we were accompanied by soldiers. This was actually so we wouldn't be killed by our neighbors (the Palestinians) -- a technicality, but an important one.
The article also noted that "the internationally recognized Palestinian territories have been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. " Actually, two countries recognized Jordan's occupation of the "West Bank" (or Judea and Samaria) prior to 1967 (without any reference to Palestinians). Since, then, the ownership of the land has been in dispute. The international community (and even many Israelis) would like to give at least part of the land to the Palestinians, but they won't accept it unless they get all the rest (on both sides of the old Armistice line).
It turns out that immediately after World War II the major powers were hoping to divide the land between Jordan and the Mediterranean among Jews and local Arabs (now, referred to as Palestinians). But, when the latter (and surrounding Arab States) refused to countenance any Jewish independence in what the Romans named "Palestine," the Palestinians lost their chance for an independent state. Ironically, it wasn't Israel that prevented the Palestinians from having their own state in part of the land upon the signing of the Armistice agreement in 1949, but the Egyptians and Jordanians, who ruled both Gaza and the West Bank (as well as part of Jerusalem), respectively, until 1967.
These governments supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in their quest to destroy the State of Israel -- even the one that existed prior to the 1967 war. A quest that hasn't changed until now.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Weather It Is (Storm Clouds)
Good Morning:
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
Are we ready to fight Gaza? Are we ready to rid ourselves of Hamas and its partner in terror Islamic Jihad? Seems doable, we'll just send in the army if it really gets bad -- we've got everything under control. Except in our non-linear world might one consider that Hizbollah of Lebanon will attack this summer at the same time? Until, we've bought quiet by paying ever increasing amounts of blackmail, but soon smoke filled storm clouds will fill our skies.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Weather It Is (Recap Forward)
Good Morning:
It was a very chilly 5 degrees Celcius Tuesday morning during the Passover holiday. Soon after, the complaints and even threats rolled into my inbox. It was almost as if the dam broke after a prolonged winter of chill and (blessed) rainy days. I am not sure if I received a large fraction of letters from my readers or a large number of letters from just a small fraction from all readers, but there were a lot of letters and a lot of complaints.
To be honest, I was a bit perturbed about this. I had mentioned almost 10 days before the advent of the Passover holiday that I had ordered both chilly and rainy weather for the start of the holiday, and had put in a side order of snow to go along. I figured that after all my hard work this past winter I should be entitled to one more snow before we flipped the weather calendar to spring.
So, I am the one who should be disappointed. I did, though, appreciate the heavy rains, lightning and thunder, and air so thick at times with hail it was both dangerous to venture outside without a hard hat or even hear over the din. One might also mention the 25 centimeters that fell at the base of Har Hermon, and there was even snow at Neve-Ativ (lower down).
And, please, don't forget how nice the weather ended up, rebounding from the chill to reach quite warm, springtime temperatures. Who can really complain? Sometimes, it's better to save a letter than to press send, think it over, and see if the passage of time cures all weather ills.
And, certainly, we've turned the corner from winter into spring as anyone with a thermometer or short-sleeve shirt can tell you. The sky has a bit of haze to it and it's a warm 25 degrees Celcius while I write this blog.
The change in the weather provided folks with the opportunity to head out to the countryside and to visit the Old-City of Jerusalem, for instance. We actually took a chance and went to a restaurant.
Some of you might remember our previous travails with visits to hotels. We spent one vacation at the "Virus Hotel," another at "The Broken Air-Conditioner Hotel," "The Spider Hotel," "The Missile Hotel" (there was a war going on, but they said "come"), "The Dusty Hotel," and the "Stinky Hotel." Along these lines we waited twice more than two hours for a meal to be served at restaurants. You can easily relate to the old adage "The house is the best hotel."
However, we were stuck: my wife wore herself out cooking and we had a festival concert to go that evening (for those who should know: my cooking skill are more appropriate for non-Pesach fare). I decided to look for a restaurant. I found one at this helpful link (https://www.eluna.com/holidays/Pesach_rest2018.asp), call "Papagaio." But, when I mentioned it to my wife, she said that it seems to expensive to serve any real food -- we'll be starving! We'll end up with giant plates with an olive in the middle. However, after a careful review of the pricing and fare, I was hopeful that it was inexpensive enough to serve real food, but expensive enough to serve good food. In fact, Papagaio, a "Kosher Brazilian grill" serves excellent, very tasty, uniquely spiced, and satisfying portions. I had a taste-bud stimulating chicken dish, while my wife had her favorite (a salad with liver). Even the potatoes tasted good. The decor is pleasant. Even nicer, despite the number of people in the restaurant (including our children), it was quiet enough to speak.
By the way, our best hotel experiences have been at Nof Ginnosaur located at the southern tip of Lake Kinneret, and the Dan hotel in Caesarea. Ein-Gev on the eastern side of the Kinneret serves good food, and the Kinneret turns from a pool to a wavy sea in the afternoon. So, in case you're wondering, it is possible to find a nice hotel in Israel and get served an excellent and timely meal as well.
Barry Lynn
It was a very chilly 5 degrees Celcius Tuesday morning during the Passover holiday. Soon after, the complaints and even threats rolled into my inbox. It was almost as if the dam broke after a prolonged winter of chill and (blessed) rainy days. I am not sure if I received a large fraction of letters from my readers or a large number of letters from just a small fraction from all readers, but there were a lot of letters and a lot of complaints.
To be honest, I was a bit perturbed about this. I had mentioned almost 10 days before the advent of the Passover holiday that I had ordered both chilly and rainy weather for the start of the holiday, and had put in a side order of snow to go along. I figured that after all my hard work this past winter I should be entitled to one more snow before we flipped the weather calendar to spring.
So, I am the one who should be disappointed. I did, though, appreciate the heavy rains, lightning and thunder, and air so thick at times with hail it was both dangerous to venture outside without a hard hat or even hear over the din. One might also mention the 25 centimeters that fell at the base of Har Hermon, and there was even snow at Neve-Ativ (lower down).
And, please, don't forget how nice the weather ended up, rebounding from the chill to reach quite warm, springtime temperatures. Who can really complain? Sometimes, it's better to save a letter than to press send, think it over, and see if the passage of time cures all weather ills.
And, certainly, we've turned the corner from winter into spring as anyone with a thermometer or short-sleeve shirt can tell you. The sky has a bit of haze to it and it's a warm 25 degrees Celcius while I write this blog.
The change in the weather provided folks with the opportunity to head out to the countryside and to visit the Old-City of Jerusalem, for instance. We actually took a chance and went to a restaurant.
Some of you might remember our previous travails with visits to hotels. We spent one vacation at the "Virus Hotel," another at "The Broken Air-Conditioner Hotel," "The Spider Hotel," "The Missile Hotel" (there was a war going on, but they said "come"), "The Dusty Hotel," and the "Stinky Hotel." Along these lines we waited twice more than two hours for a meal to be served at restaurants. You can easily relate to the old adage "The house is the best hotel."
However, we were stuck: my wife wore herself out cooking and we had a festival concert to go that evening (for those who should know: my cooking skill are more appropriate for non-Pesach fare). I decided to look for a restaurant. I found one at this helpful link (https://www.eluna.com/holidays/Pesach_rest2018.asp), call "Papagaio." But, when I mentioned it to my wife, she said that it seems to expensive to serve any real food -- we'll be starving! We'll end up with giant plates with an olive in the middle. However, after a careful review of the pricing and fare, I was hopeful that it was inexpensive enough to serve real food, but expensive enough to serve good food. In fact, Papagaio, a "Kosher Brazilian grill" serves excellent, very tasty, uniquely spiced, and satisfying portions. I had a taste-bud stimulating chicken dish, while my wife had her favorite (a salad with liver). Even the potatoes tasted good. The decor is pleasant. Even nicer, despite the number of people in the restaurant (including our children), it was quiet enough to speak.
By the way, our best hotel experiences have been at Nof Ginnosaur located at the southern tip of Lake Kinneret, and the Dan hotel in Caesarea. Ein-Gev on the eastern side of the Kinneret serves good food, and the Kinneret turns from a pool to a wavy sea in the afternoon. So, in case you're wondering, it is possible to find a nice hotel in Israel and get served an excellent and timely meal as well.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Weather It Is (The Week To Come)
Good Afternoon:
The weather this Shabbat was certainly beautifully sunny. The nice weather goes perfectly with the bursting out of cherry blossoms. The nice weather is courtesy of high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, and warm southwesterly winds. I wouldn't be surprised if folks assume that our winter/spring rains are a thing of the past (last winter's past, to be exact).
However, they just might be mistaken.
Despite our beautiful and warm weather on Shabbat, our high pressure system should give way on Monday to a trough of low pressure dropping down from eastern Europe. This should end our short string of warm days and bring showers soon after. A very slow moving (nearly cutoff) low pressure area will meanwhile establish itself in the eastern Atlantic as we move into mid-week.
Then an unusual situation should develop. Normally, warmer temperatures over Greenland (as indicated by a negative NAO pattern) leads to warmer weather here as a ridge of high pressure builds in the eastern Mediterranean. However, as the cutoff low over the eastern Atlantic intensifies, it will instead help to build a very strongly amplified ridge of warm air over Great Britain and far northern Europe. The developing wind pattern should then favor an influx of cold air from the western regions of Siberia, which should deepen the trough in the eastern Mediterranean as the week progresses (showers continue), and possibly spin up a more potent storm as we turn the corner next week into Pesach.
It's all very complicated, but it does look like the latter part of Pesach should be more conducive for outdoor activities. Of course, we have the advantage of looking at multiple forecasts over time, and if in the end it looks like the early Pesach storm will miss us, we can always change our forecast.
Not so those who sent the Israeli spaceship "Bereshit" (the first or beginning) on its ill-fated mission to the lunar surface. I have to admit, though, that I was one of the very excited ones watching the lunar landing. I entertained the idea that not only we be the fourth country to land on the moon, but we would be the first country to discover the little green men (with antennae) that eat the green cheese we all believe the moon to be made of. I even thought that perhaps we would find out that it's instead made of a white cheese and olive mix, and that all my wife and I would need to do on our next vacation would be to bring the bread to eat it on (or at least my wife; I prefer oatmeal).
But, it was not to be. There's really nowhere engineers can practice those lunar landings except on the moon -- and then it's not practice. True, computers can be used to test out different scenarios, and to model spaceship behavior during the landing. But, we don't need a computer to tell us that if the main engine fails on the way down it won't be a good ending. It's sort of like a child that rides his/her bicycle down the stairs -- it's a great ride until it ends (but that is another story).
As you know Israelis are not very good at long term planning. As my nephew wrote: "It's really fits the Israeli personality to drive 900 km/h to the moon and to say 'Walla!' [Oops] I didn't pay attention, there's a moon in my way. But, the main thing is that we arrived."
Regardless, new plans are being made, and the new ("no pun intended") moon-lander is already being called "Vayikra."
Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
The weather this Shabbat was certainly beautifully sunny. The nice weather goes perfectly with the bursting out of cherry blossoms. The nice weather is courtesy of high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, and warm southwesterly winds. I wouldn't be surprised if folks assume that our winter/spring rains are a thing of the past (last winter's past, to be exact).
However, they just might be mistaken.
Despite our beautiful and warm weather on Shabbat, our high pressure system should give way on Monday to a trough of low pressure dropping down from eastern Europe. This should end our short string of warm days and bring showers soon after. A very slow moving (nearly cutoff) low pressure area will meanwhile establish itself in the eastern Atlantic as we move into mid-week.
Then an unusual situation should develop. Normally, warmer temperatures over Greenland (as indicated by a negative NAO pattern) leads to warmer weather here as a ridge of high pressure builds in the eastern Mediterranean. However, as the cutoff low over the eastern Atlantic intensifies, it will instead help to build a very strongly amplified ridge of warm air over Great Britain and far northern Europe. The developing wind pattern should then favor an influx of cold air from the western regions of Siberia, which should deepen the trough in the eastern Mediterranean as the week progresses (showers continue), and possibly spin up a more potent storm as we turn the corner next week into Pesach.
It's all very complicated, but it does look like the latter part of Pesach should be more conducive for outdoor activities. Of course, we have the advantage of looking at multiple forecasts over time, and if in the end it looks like the early Pesach storm will miss us, we can always change our forecast.
Not so those who sent the Israeli spaceship "Bereshit" (the first or beginning) on its ill-fated mission to the lunar surface. I have to admit, though, that I was one of the very excited ones watching the lunar landing. I entertained the idea that not only we be the fourth country to land on the moon, but we would be the first country to discover the little green men (with antennae) that eat the green cheese we all believe the moon to be made of. I even thought that perhaps we would find out that it's instead made of a white cheese and olive mix, and that all my wife and I would need to do on our next vacation would be to bring the bread to eat it on (or at least my wife; I prefer oatmeal).
But, it was not to be. There's really nowhere engineers can practice those lunar landings except on the moon -- and then it's not practice. True, computers can be used to test out different scenarios, and to model spaceship behavior during the landing. But, we don't need a computer to tell us that if the main engine fails on the way down it won't be a good ending. It's sort of like a child that rides his/her bicycle down the stairs -- it's a great ride until it ends (but that is another story).
As you know Israelis are not very good at long term planning. As my nephew wrote: "It's really fits the Israeli personality to drive 900 km/h to the moon and to say 'Walla!' [Oops] I didn't pay attention, there's a moon in my way. But, the main thing is that we arrived."
Regardless, new plans are being made, and the new ("no pun intended") moon-lander is already being called "Vayikra."
Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
Friday, April 12, 2019
Weather It Is (Springtime Storms)
Good Afternoon:
The weather outside is certainly beautifully sunny. The nice weather goes perfectly with the bursting out of cherry blossoms. The nice weather is courtesy of high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, and warm southwesterly winds. I wouldn't be surprised if folks make the mistaken assumption that our winter and/or early spring rains are a thing of the past (last winter's past, to be exact).
However, they just might be mistaken.
A very slow moving (nearly cutoff) low pressure area will establish itself in the eastern Atlantic over the next few days. In the meantime, our high pressure system should give way on Monday to a trough of low pressure dropping down from eastern Europe. This should end our short string of warm days and bring showers and a chill to the start of the week.
Then an unusual situation should develop. Normally, warmer temperatures over Greenland (as indicated by a negative NAO pattern) usually leads to warmer weather here. However, as the cutoff low over the eastern Atlantic intensifies, it will help to build a very strongly amplified ridge of warm air over Great Britain and far northern Europe. The developing wind pattern should then favor an influx of cold air from the western regions of Siberia, which should deepen the trough in the eastern Mediterranean as the week progresses (showers continue), and possibly spin up a more potent storm as we turn the corner next week into Pesach.
It's all very complicated, but it does look like the latter part of Pesach should be more conducive for outdoor activities. Of course, we have the advantage of looking at multiple forecasts over time, and if in the end it looks like the early Pesach storm will miss us, we can always change our forecast.
Not so those who sent the Israeli spaceship "Bereshit" (the first or beginning) to the lunar surface. There's really nowhere engineers can practice those lunar landings except on the moon -- and then it's not practice. True, computers can be used to test out different scenarios, and to model spaceship behavior during the landing. But, we don't need a computer to tell us that if the main engine fails on the way down it won't be a good ending. It's sort of like a child that rides his/her bicycle down the stairs -- it's a great ride until it ends (but that is another story).
As you know Israelis are not very good at long term planning. So (as stated aptly by a fellow blogger): "It's really fits the Israeli personality to drive 900 km/h to the moon and to say 'Walla!' (Oops) I didn't pay attention, there's a moon in my way. But, the main thing is that we arrived."
Regardless, new plans are being made, and the new (no pun intended) moon-lander is already being called "Vayikra."
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
The weather outside is certainly beautifully sunny. The nice weather goes perfectly with the bursting out of cherry blossoms. The nice weather is courtesy of high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, and warm southwesterly winds. I wouldn't be surprised if folks make the mistaken assumption that our winter and/or early spring rains are a thing of the past (last winter's past, to be exact).
However, they just might be mistaken.
A very slow moving (nearly cutoff) low pressure area will establish itself in the eastern Atlantic over the next few days. In the meantime, our high pressure system should give way on Monday to a trough of low pressure dropping down from eastern Europe. This should end our short string of warm days and bring showers and a chill to the start of the week.
Then an unusual situation should develop. Normally, warmer temperatures over Greenland (as indicated by a negative NAO pattern) usually leads to warmer weather here. However, as the cutoff low over the eastern Atlantic intensifies, it will help to build a very strongly amplified ridge of warm air over Great Britain and far northern Europe. The developing wind pattern should then favor an influx of cold air from the western regions of Siberia, which should deepen the trough in the eastern Mediterranean as the week progresses (showers continue), and possibly spin up a more potent storm as we turn the corner next week into Pesach.
It's all very complicated, but it does look like the latter part of Pesach should be more conducive for outdoor activities. Of course, we have the advantage of looking at multiple forecasts over time, and if in the end it looks like the early Pesach storm will miss us, we can always change our forecast.
Not so those who sent the Israeli spaceship "Bereshit" (the first or beginning) to the lunar surface. There's really nowhere engineers can practice those lunar landings except on the moon -- and then it's not practice. True, computers can be used to test out different scenarios, and to model spaceship behavior during the landing. But, we don't need a computer to tell us that if the main engine fails on the way down it won't be a good ending. It's sort of like a child that rides his/her bicycle down the stairs -- it's a great ride until it ends (but that is another story).
As you know Israelis are not very good at long term planning. So (as stated aptly by a fellow blogger): "It's really fits the Israeli personality to drive 900 km/h to the moon and to say 'Walla!' (Oops) I didn't pay attention, there's a moon in my way. But, the main thing is that we arrived."
Regardless, new plans are being made, and the new (no pun intended) moon-lander is already being called "Vayikra."
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, April 4, 2019
Weather It Is (Springing Forward)
Good Afternoon:
It's been a rainy winter, but the weather (at least the temperatures) are changing. In fact, we don't see any heavy rain events on the horizon, although some dips in temperatures could be accompanied by showers.
The changes harbinger a change in weather regimes as the storm track moves to our north, and higher pressure from the warm south builds further north. I was asked why this winter has been so different from past winters. This is a great question, but the answer will require quite a bit of research to answer. However, we can point out how the past drought has most likely impacted this winter storms. The drought has most likely led to an increase in atmospheric dust, which when absorbed into storms often leads to an increase in lightning. As to our extended winter, we can say storm tracks were consistently passing through the eastern Mediterranean, and that there was plenty of cold air to our north over Scandinavia and Siberia to spin up these storms into significant rain storms. But, as to what led to the increase in storms, that's an open research question.
People also wonder if there is really something to the "mother in law" thing. One person said to me: "I lived for 20 years with my mother in law, and now 20 years later I finally miss her." On the other hand, you find people who really like their mother in laws. The article here (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/relationships/relationship-women-theirmothers-in-law-often-fraught-itneednt/) offers some possible reasons why it can be hard to get along with your mother in law, but (I am guessing that) there are plenty of people who do get along with there mother in laws. One might also keep in mind that one child or the other may act differently in the home of their parents, and suddenly the new bride, for example, finds herself married to a different person.
Another question people have wondered about is whether there is anything left to us after death. People report seeing a "light," and some attribute this to the afterworld, while others say that there is a (not) simple scientific explanation (https://www.seeker.com/why-we-see-the-white-light-near-death-1791574897.html). This was especially relevant because my mother in law, Aziza Shula Romano, passed away after a very long illness that suddenly progressed to her end. One evening, but a few days before the wedding of my nephew, she reported seeing a bright light. When it was pointed out that the lights of the hospital were quite bright, she insisted that no, this was the light of G-d. Later, she was asked why if she could see the light of G-d she couldn't ask for an extension to her own life until after wedding. She responded that it was written on the door to "heaven" that this was her time and that she would have to "enjoy" the wedding from above.
Regardless, let's just say that watching someone arrive at their end was not pleasant. I was and am very sad. I asked myself, how can this be? She was just my mother in law, not my real mother. Yet, I don't remember ever arguing with her, or finding anything she ever said to be disagreeable. She just encouraged me to be a good husband and father, and that we and our children should be blessed. I had the opportunity to explore my "strange" reaction during the eulogies, which I have included here.
It's been a rainy winter, but the weather (at least the temperatures) are changing. In fact, we don't see any heavy rain events on the horizon, although some dips in temperatures could be accompanied by showers.
The changes harbinger a change in weather regimes as the storm track moves to our north, and higher pressure from the warm south builds further north. I was asked why this winter has been so different from past winters. This is a great question, but the answer will require quite a bit of research to answer. However, we can point out how the past drought has most likely impacted this winter storms. The drought has most likely led to an increase in atmospheric dust, which when absorbed into storms often leads to an increase in lightning. As to our extended winter, we can say storm tracks were consistently passing through the eastern Mediterranean, and that there was plenty of cold air to our north over Scandinavia and Siberia to spin up these storms into significant rain storms. But, as to what led to the increase in storms, that's an open research question.
People also wonder if there is really something to the "mother in law" thing. One person said to me: "I lived for 20 years with my mother in law, and now 20 years later I finally miss her." On the other hand, you find people who really like their mother in laws. The article here (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/relationships/relationship-women-theirmothers-in-law-often-fraught-itneednt/) offers some possible reasons why it can be hard to get along with your mother in law, but (I am guessing that) there are plenty of people who do get along with there mother in laws. One might also keep in mind that one child or the other may act differently in the home of their parents, and suddenly the new bride, for example, finds herself married to a different person.
Another question people have wondered about is whether there is anything left to us after death. People report seeing a "light," and some attribute this to the afterworld, while others say that there is a (not) simple scientific explanation (https://www.seeker.com/why-we-see-the-white-light-near-death-1791574897.html). This was especially relevant because my mother in law, Aziza Shula Romano, passed away after a very long illness that suddenly progressed to her end. One evening, but a few days before the wedding of my nephew, she reported seeing a bright light. When it was pointed out that the lights of the hospital were quite bright, she insisted that no, this was the light of G-d. Later, she was asked why if she could see the light of G-d she couldn't ask for an extension to her own life until after wedding. She responded that it was written on the door to "heaven" that this was her time and that she would have to "enjoy" the wedding from above.
Regardless, let's just say that watching someone arrive at their end was not pleasant. I was and am very sad. I asked myself, how can this be? She was just my mother in law, not my real mother. Yet, I don't remember ever arguing with her, or finding anything she ever said to be disagreeable. She just encouraged me to be a good husband and father, and that we and our children should be blessed. I had the opportunity to explore my "strange" reaction during the eulogies, which I have included here.
Shula:
Shula was special – very special.
We all lived under her special Neshama, and our children grew up knowing their Safta. What a Safta. She cared for everyone and they cared for her. Yet, this would never have happened if not for the dedication of her children, who took care of her – especially my wife, Rachel. Rachel did not give of herself hours in a week, but days in a week to nurture and to love her mother, to care for her, and to bring her until this point where she (Shula) said: enough is enough. I am too tired to continue – but not to bless all of you with health and happiness.
One might wonder why I am crying? After all, Shula was the dreaded “Mother in Law.” Yet, like she said I was her son, she was really my mother – my other mother, and just as I love my mother, I loved and still do my “other” mother.
How did she become my mother? Well, I married Rachel, but of course that is not enough. She became my mother because she knew how to communicate, to listen, and understand, and to act on her understandings. [When my wife was late to our first meeting and] When I called from the restaurant and in my broken Hebrew asked: “where is Rachel,” she said: “Don’t worry, she’s coming,” and I knew [understood] what she said and what she meant. And Rachel arrived, and so did Safta’s grand children.
Yet, it must be said that my wife might never have arrived if not for her mother’s sacrifice. After sustaining an injury to her head, she was told that she should end the pregnancy or risk losing her eye. She didn’t end the pregnancy, but she did lose her eye.
And, then, as she grew older and developed a cataract in her only “good” eye, she turned down the opportunity to have cataract surgery. Thus, with time she became not just blind in one eye, but blind in the second.
Yet, she could never be blind to our love for her or we her love for us.
I spoke to her last Erev Shabbat at her home, one-on-one. I don’t remember exactly what I said and certainly the time was too short as it always is in the end. I didn’t thank her for Rachel, my wife – I’d already done that as I do every day.
And now, I miss her voice. I want to hear her voice!
When Safta became ill, I decided to read Psalm 26 for her every day. I’ve done this for 10 years now, except for Hagim. I read and read and read it again, with always her in mind – in the hope that this prayer would give her another day to be with us. It describes her so well, and here it is (
[We should have only good tidings.]
Barry Lynn
[We should have only good tidings.]
Barry Lynn
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