Saturday, December 30, 2017

Weather It Is (Very Wet and Stormy)

Good Evening:

As I mentioned in a previous blog, storms this year have been following typical storm tracks of old, passing eastward across Crete and then on to Cyprus.  This brings both winter chill from Europe and moisture from the Mediterranean, which combines to bring the rain.  The problem has been that there haven't been too many such storms so far this winter. Still, the last storm produced almost 50 mm (2 inches) of rain here in Efrat, in about 12 hours time.

In contrast, in recent years we've had several storms move southward from Western Russia/Siberia and down through Turkey, which have brought extreme cold, but not very much precipitation.  They were "snow-teases" so to speak.  Of course, one such storm brought us our heavy, heavy snow of December 2013, but it was positioned just right to produce plenty of precipitation under conditions quite cold enough for snow (in Jerusalem, etc).

Fortunately (although some would say with "Divine-Intervention" (see below)), the forecast shows two such Cyprus bearing low pressure systems moving our way during the coming week.  Moreover, both storms could bring very heavy rain (even flooding rains), and the second should bring strong winds.  Both should bring snow to the Hermon mountain. Moreover, because some of the global ensemble forecasts shows temperatures below -25 C at 500 mb, some of the storms could produce thunder and lightning.

Last Thursday, which was also a day of fasting, was chosen as the day to beseech God for rain.  As noted at the Israel Meteorological Service's Web Site (http://www.ims.gov.il/IMSEng/Tazpiot/RainObservations/) we've received about 50% of normal rainfall amounts this winter. So, various Rabbis decided it was time to hold a communal prayer session. The invitation is below (in Hebrew), calling for special prayers, a sermon, and additional afternoon prayers special for this day of fasting.  Strangely, it's also written ("No Chazaim Allowed").  Even stranger this phrase was noted in English, even though the writer used the Hebrew word for forecaster  ("Chazaim").  What was I too make of it?  What were they trying to keep me from seeing?

(Interestingly, I heard that prayers were also conducted today, despite the forecast of rain. Apparently, we learn from Mordechai of Purim-fame that one shouldn't stop praying for a miracle just because things are going well or the forecast looks good.)

I had dressed up in a large hat, painted a moustache below my nose, and made my way over to the prayer session.  It was very well attended.  Despite my disguise, I heard someone say: "why are you here, go home and do your job."  Someone heard him, and soon after I was running down the sidewalk with a crowd behind me, each with a prayer sheet in their hands.  Fortunately, a strong wind came and stopped this crowd, but not me in its tracks.  I made my way home, and sheepishly explained to my wife where I'd been.  She called in sick the next day to work.

Barry Lynn




Monday, December 25, 2017

Weather It Is (A Break And Then Rain)

Good Evening:

Our recent rains were quite heavy.  Here in Efrat, we recorded almost 50 mm of rain, and it occurred in about 12 hours of time.  Where I come from, this would be equivalent to about 20 inches of snow in half a day -- except where I live now it's usually too warm for snow.

On a side note: the amounts that occurred were about three times the amounts forecast -- so the weather can still surprise us.  There were very many heavy rain showers imbedded in the storm, which meant that the air was both more moist and colder than forecast.

The temperatures were on the chilly side today, but they will rebound tomorrow and stay at mild levels until Shabbat.

At that time, an even stronger storm is forecast to approach our area and heavy rain will probably occur over many areas. Temperatures should also fall to chilly levels, and remain there for a few days.

I just received historical weather data from The Israeli Atmospheric and Climatic Data Center (IACDC), funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology and set up at the Tel Aviv University.  I'd like to do two things: i) analyze the data for trends, and ii) determine what is normal weather on each particular day.  Too many times, we say: "boy, it's hot," or "this winter is much cooler than last," but we really don't know.  Our memories are actually quite faulty when it comes to remembering past events, and especially weather (as who really notices the weather anyway).

Analyzing the data for trends is not really anything new, although the results of such analysis are not readily available.  However, I rarely see any reference in publicly given forecasts relative to what is normal weather.  When I complete my analysis, I plan to add the results of this feature to my web site.

I thought of a few more jokes about restaurants that charge a lot for meal courses, but serve very little food.  The first was: they have elegant service, but relatively little to serve.  In regard to the next, I had noticed that my son had a very large bowl of soup.  However, it turns out that the birds-eye view of the soup bowl and the soup reminded one of the Dead-Sea.  The last: my plate was so large I had to stand to reach the food in the middle of it.

I won't be heading over to Avi Friedman's Comedy for Koby, but at least my wife laughed (and I suppose that's good).

Barry Lynn


Thursday, December 21, 2017

Weather It Is (What To Do?)

Good Evening:

I had a call today from someone planning a prayer session for rain, which would include the local schools.   The question: to go ahead or not? Right now, it's not just people that are confused but the plants are confused.  The roses are blooming and young couples are looking at each other like they're in love.  It's been that kind of weather -- after a relatively cool period it's been no-jacket weather (even in Jerusalem).

However, after another warm day on Friday, a front will arrive early Shabbat morning  Temperatures should fall on blustery northwesterly winds and moisture will arrive late Motzei Shabbat.  The storm will pass east of Cyprus and then north of us on Monday, bringing substantial (10s of mm of) rain from north to south, with rain amounts generally increasing from south central Israel to the far north.

The cool weather should last into mid-week and then temperatures should turn milder.  Yet, another storm appears to be brewing for the end of the year.  Right now, there seems to be no possibility of any frozen precipitation with this end of the year storm, and it is not yet forecast to be as strong as the one we're expecting early next week.

So, to go ahead with the prayers for rain? What would you do?

In fact, these type of existential questions also apply to where to dine out.  You see, finding a restaurant to eat out is full of peril.  For instance, we just completed a promotional event for our new total lightning network.  We stayed at the David Intercontinental Hotel in Tel-Aviv for a night, and had dinner at one of the in-house restaurants.  It was fine-dining with excellent service, in a quiet and relaxed atmosphere.  The problem?  The food was nicely presented on a big plate, decorated with fancy sauces -- but the portions were tiny.   This is because the bigger the plate the smaller the amount of food served.  In fact, years ago my wife felt so sorry for me she gave me part of her portion.
You can see from the picture  that I was distressed -- especially after a hard day, searching for the very last rice kernel that had appeared as a pillow (not blanket) under my small chicken pieces.  What to do? Do you go out to another restaurant for fillers?

The last time this happened (years ago), the manager asked us how was the food. When we said quite tasty but that the portions were too small, he said we should have asked for more.  We live in a strange country!

In contrast, we also ate at a steak house (Tzidkahu) in Talpiot, Jerusalem.  Here, the waiters bring a million different salads and enough food to take home, and the plates although large are not too, too large. One goes home a bit frazzled from the commotion and music, but one goes home full.

Of course, I am thankful to have any food to eat.  Still, I'd like to combine a big meal with a relaxed atmosphere -- but rarely do we ever really get everything we want.  The next morning, I ate a big breakfast.


Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Good Evening:

Our weather seems to be a bit on hold.  This isn't a bad thing, as many people are up and about during this "holiday" Chanukah week. There have been a few showers, and even more clouds, but it hasn't been too chilly either.  In fact, the next few days, even several days should see milder weather as winds generally blow from westerly -- and at times -- southerly direction.

However, the global forecast ensemble (GEFS) suggests that the end of this week should turn a lot colder, and rain is likely.  There is even a chance of extremely cold temperatures (near zero), and the possibility of turning the calendar on Chanukah into a "real" winter with accumulating snow.  However, the probability of heavy precipitation (and or snow) is only 20%.

While this doesn't seem likely, there is some good news in that the overall atmospheric pattern (as indicated by the "North Atlantic Oscillation" or NAO) is indicative of the potential for significant storms in our area.  This is because a positive NAO tends to encourage circulation patterns that direct colder air our way from due north, which helps to keep temperatures cold and to spin up storms that can produce heavy precipitation.

While I may be hoping for a big storm to spin up and bring us a heavy snow, I still have to contend with day to day happenings that make my own head spin.  After cleaning the salon and kitchen, baking Challah, boiling eggs (!), making blintzes, and pie crust, the first thing I hear is:
"I came home at 1 (1300) so that you wouldn't still be here..., You can't eat until the table is clean."  "Abba, when will I get my kitchen back?"  "Abba, move your stuff."

You see, there may be problems, and no good problems in the workplace, but the home is also a place of competition.  There is even a competition over being tall.  In fact, we did a bit of checking for one of our kids and he is expected to soar above both of us (and reach -- quite possibly -- 170 cm).  While I would have loved to have reached this height, it wasn't good enough for my wife who said that she wasn't worried about marrying me (height wise), saying: "I thought that I would win out and all the kids, especially, the boys would be much taller than I." This just goes to show that when you really want to marry someone, love conquers all.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Weather It Is (Ups And Downs)

Good Evening:

People are speaking to me about the weather, which is a lot better than when they only glared.  Instead of being angry (with me) they want to know what's with all the changes, and why it's stopped raining.

But, first the weather: our storm has departed and it will be warming up quite nicely as warm air flows moves in with a trough of lower pressure centered over the deserts to our southeast.  The warmth will peak on Tuesday, prior to the first night of Chanukah.

A cold front should then arrive Tuesday night from the west and temperatures should fall into Friday morning.  In contrast to yesterday's forecast, we're now getting indications of a chance of rain from Thursday through Shabbat. At the moment, it doesn't look  like a heavy rain.

Getting back to "why" it has stopped raining.  Unfortunately, the regional climate change models forecast that increased Carbon Dioxide levels should lead to more frequent, if not severe droughts in our area, with the drought more intense in northern areas.  This would be in response to a northward drift of the winter jet stream that provides us with "Cyprus Low," our main rain producers.

As you are aware, there are those who object to the idea that climate change caused by industrial gases is a serious problem or if it exists at all. For instance, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has relied on a range of climate forecast models to warn us of dire consequences in the decades ahead.  These models have produced a range of possible temperature increases during this century, from devastatingly hot to more temperate, with the mean of the projected changes depending on how much greenhouse gases we produce.  In reality, the global mean temperatures have increased (by a few tenths of a degree), but this is below or just within the lower boundary of the predictions.  In other words, > 95% of the global forecasts were/are hotter than our current reality.  Clearly, there are physical processes not well represented by most of the models.

On the other, there have been terrible fires in the western US, where it was terribly hot during the summer, and winter rains are late.  In contrast, it just snowed in Houston, Texas, and Atlanta Georgia just had its largest snow in years (several inches or more) -- and it is early December.

How do we explain that?  In simple terms, the increase in greenhouse gases has increased the energy "retained" by the atmosphere.  More energy in the system means that the waves that grow because of latitudinal (north to south (or south to north)) temperature differences can amplify more strongly (deeply) than without the added energy.  These waves can transport unseasonably hot weather further north then "normal," and colder air further south.  On the net the earth is warmer, but some areas can experience unseasonable heat or cold.

As for us, we're ahead of last year in terms of rainfall.  In fact, last year at this time it had barely begun to rain.  After rainfall began on the 13th of December, it rained a number of times before the end of the month. However, January was very dry, and February not particularly wet. We had about 50% of the normal seasonal rainfall.  However last year's fall was particularly dusty and warm, while this year's fall has felt more winter-like.  Based on this, I think there is hope for this year.

Happy Chanukah!

Barry Lynn


Monday, December 4, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Begins Again)

Good Evening:

The winds are about to change direction and so will our temperatures. Instead of a mild day tomorrow, temperatures will be trending downwards, and rain should arrive along the coast by Tuesday evening.

The storm should be moving southeastward past Cyprus and is forecast to bring periods of rain from Tuesday night into Friday morning to much of the country.  This won't be a very heavy rain, but it should produce 10s of millimeters of rain in many areas.  There should also be strong breezes on Wednesday with higher gusts.

The storm's path will bring the coldest air to northern areas, with temperatures near zero at 850 mb forecast to just skirt to the north of Jerusalem, along with temperatures near -10 C.  This means that there will be chance of wet snow (not-accumulating) over the northern mountains, with accumulating snow likely on the Hermon.

Because the storm should be fairly cold aloft, there is also the chance of thunderstorms.

Temperatures should start to warm up on Shabbat and milder temperatures with a slight chance of showers are expected for the start of Chanukah.

Chanukah Samaech!

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Weather It Is (Wild Swings)

Good Afternoon:

Warm winds are blowing, and they are going to continue blowing until the middle of next week.

If one takes a look at the height field of the Global Ensemble Forecast System Model one will note a sharp increase in the height of the 850 mb level, for example.  The height of the 850 mb level depends on the temperature of the atmosphere between the surface and 850 mb.   Similar height increases will be occurring at other "standard" height levels of 700 mb and 500 mb.  The increase in temperatures will help push surface temperatures into the 20s in many locations.  We refer to the weather pattern of warm temperatures as a "ridge."

However, if one is not afraid to look a bit further into the future, then one might be similarly impressed by how far the mighty will fall.   Just like there are waves on the ocean surface, there are waves in the atmosphere and the changing seasons (fall to winter) means that our unusually warm weather will be followed by unusually cold weather -- referred to as a "trough."

The cold air arriving with the advent of the trough should bring a period of rain, although not heavy rain.  Interestingly, there is a 20% chance that temperatures will dive even further, and perhaps near or very close to 0 in the mountainous areas.  The arrival of even colder air would bring a heavier rain, and be a good step towards alleviating our drought.  If the coldest temperatures within the ensemble were to actually occur, it could be cold enough for snow at the highest elevations.

While there may be water drought, there's no drought of new laws in the Knesset.   In the last several months, the Knesset has passed a law legalizing what were illegal outposts, and now they want to pass a law making it illegal for the police to recommend to the prosecutor whether to indict (really the Prime Minister) for apparent criminal activity or not.  There is also a proposal to limit the authority of the comptroller to investigate current malfeasance of government officials, and even to override the supreme court. The government also reneged on its agreement to implement a shared prayer space for non-orthodox Jewish prayer goers.  Of course, there is also the call to fully pardon a soldier who was jailed for manslaughter, even though he is already serving a relatively short sentence.

I realize that there will be those who agree or disagree with the proposed policy changes, or at least wish the law was different.  However, what it seems to me is happening is that the Knesset (led by the "Likud" party) is legislating to make the illegal legal.  In other words, they want to change the laws to give license to break the law.

This has happened before, and happens many times in autocracies.  It also happens when democracies become autocratic as well (see Turkey as a recent example), and is often an important step in moving away from democracy.  The most egregious example with terrible consequences for the Jewish people was Nazi Germany, where everything the Germans did to the Jewish people, from stripping them of employment to murdering them, was anchored in German law.

Do we really want to go down this path?

Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Weather It Is (The Tropics Intermingle)

Good Evening:

There's a moisture stream originating off the coast of Africa, flowing across the continent to the eastern Mediterranean.  The result are some layered clouds, similar to the ones that I grew up with.  These are the clouds ahead of a storm that originated in the Gulf of Mexico, and often brought  a steady rain or snow.  However, it is only rare instances when the flow of moisture from the eastern Atlantic is sufficient to bring us any rain.

Instead, we'll have to wait for a small storm to tap the moisture (and Mediterranean moisture) tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The rain, being of tropical origin, may be locally heavy in south central and central areas.  As the storm passes, temperatures should return to more chilly levels, especially on Tuesday.

Another weak storm will approach on Thursday, and temperatures after warming a bit on Wednesday will cool down again.

Looking further ahead, we see the likelihood that the beginning of December will be on the warm side of fall, rather than the cool side of winter.  No heavy rain systems are yet in site.

Also not in site is any change in the mentality of our neighbors.  The NY Times had an article "Who are the Sufi Muslims and why do extremists hate them?"  It's a strange headline because the problem isn't the hate, it's the fact that their solution to hate is murder (mass murder). 

A few weeks ago, the Israel Defense Forces uncovered a Gaza tunnel extending into Israel territory.  When they destroyed the tunnel, 12 Gazans (including senior commanders) died either directly or indirectly (trying to rescue others).  

After the attack, various Gazan terrorist groups issued statements. 


“This is a massacre,” said senior Islamic Jihad leader Khaled al-Batash.. Another spokesman, Dawood Shehab said that  "the Zionist terror government must realize that we will not hesitate to protect our people and our land,” “ and warned that their group reserved "the option of responding to this aggression.”
When you think about it, this is a very strange response.  They built an attack tunnel into Israeli territory, and then accuse the Israel military of aggression.  How is the attack tunnel protecting their land?
It gets worse: Iran accused Israel of being "bloodthirsty."  
Even more strange: A senior Islamic leader blasted Israel's efforts to thwart the abduction of Israeli soldiers, while Qatar accused Israel of violating "Palestinian rights."
To understand the Palestinians terrorists, etc, one has to first understand the behavior of my pets.
We have two cats.  One forgets that it is not suppose to be on the table. The other remembers that it isn't suppose to be on the couch, and jumps off whenever it hears me on the stairs.  However, there is no guilt or remorse, or embarrassment for getting caught.  Our dog, in contrast,  can't resist the bag of garbage that we've put out over night.  However, when we're angry at her, she actually looks like she feels guilty.
When our neighbors get caught with their nose in the garbage who do they blame? Us. Moreover, they express no guilt or embarrassment.  They are like cats with no sense of right or wrong, but also like a dog that can't resist its nature to do wrong.  They appear to have no moral compass.
Yet they do.   When you study what they say, you realize that they really believe that it is their right to abduct soldiers, blow up buses (or mosques), and kill as many people as they can, and that we (or anyone else who disagrees with their beliefs) have no right to defend ourselves.  Their religion and/or their beliefs give them the "right" to do as they wish, and no one has the right (or even the right to their own lives) to stop them.  It's not just that they kill without remorse, they truly believe that those they kill should make no effort to resist.
How else can you explain such statements that Israel has violated the rights of the Palestinian people?
Barry Lynn






Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Weather It Is (Rain Here And There)

Good Evening:

There's been a steady rain here in Efrat for the last couple of days, and the rain gauge finally feels like it has a purpose.  The thermometer is also working hard -- to stay warm.  Temperatures were below 10 C all day, and the 8 C temperature right now is the lowest all this fall/winter.

There should be periods of showers and/or light rain tonight (Tuesday night), more in areas where clouds have been streaming in a line off the Mediterranean.  These west-to-east lines of precipitation can exist for several hours or more and can lead to localized floods.

Showers should continue on Wednesday and the cold weather should continue into Friday morning, when winds should switch to the south, and temperatures will warm to mild levels.  The warmer weather should peak late Shabbat, but winds backing to the west should bring cool weather until midweek with a chance of showers.

Looking further ahead, the month may end on a very mild note, and December may feel more like October.

I am bit surprised that I was able to write this blog.  You see last night I wrote my blog on the back of a check, and then the bank teller took it and didn't give it back, and I really didn't remember what I wrote.  This was at a bank in Jerusalem, somewhere, but I don't remember where.

Of course, this sounds a bit silly.  What happened was that the dog woke me up at 4 A.M and when I went back to bed I couldn't fall asleep -- except I did (but I thought I didn't).  I spent the next two hours thinking I was up and about, doing all sorts of strange things, only to wake up to the sound of some rain drops (falling on the skylight) -- you can imagine I gave a sigh of relief.

Except that last Monday I really wasn't dreaming when I received an e-mail message that my forecast showed snow for today -- heavy snow.  My son said that he would never live it down, and considered staying home from school.  My wife said I should find a different profession, and my daughter just looked at me, wondering why her father couldn't be like other fathers.

The good news is that I fixed the bug, and the atmospheric model I use was correctly predicting thunder and lightning for later that day.  I hope that the next few days will bring fewer surprises, some quiet, and pleasant dreams.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

Good Evening:

It's over -- that's it -- fall will exit and winter will enter.  Winds will quickly shift to the northwest and usher in the coolest air of the season.  Still, some might still call this fall: in fact, my wife's mother told me that years ago (when she was a young mother) she remembers the rain and cold that greeted each new child -- and this was during fall before the arrival of winter.  Now, it seems like we skip fall and then when winter arrives it doesn't last very long. In any case, winter may be arriving but the long range forecast shows a 70% chance of milder weather returning next week.

This may also explain why my wife doesn't like winter.  On the other hand, I was born at the end of the year and I love winter, so we may have to conduct further study to understand why I like winter and she doesn't.

In any case, although the weather this week will resemble winter more than fall, the hoped for heavy rain will probably not materialize.  Instead, there should be showers on Monday and periods of rain on Tuesday, with moderate rain amounts along the coastal areas and lower amounts in the central mountain areas.  This should still be a nice change from our dry weather, and temperatures should remain chilly through Thursday or even Friday.

For interest sake, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast for next week, and there are actually two forecasts (a 10%) chance that it will get even colder, if not downright cold.

Trying to communicate the weather forecast -- and provide actionable information -- is difficult, especially (as previously noted) this time of year the weather systems are not as strong or as large as those of winter.

Also, only about half the world's population are men, so there is the potential for miscommunication right there.  For instance, some weeks ago (but not too many) I told my daughter that I was off to the kiddish and then for a walk.  Now, she's pretty good at math, and there was a straight line between the house, the kiddish and the rest of the walk (we periodically take together).

I returned about an hour later and she asked me if it was time for our walk.   I looked at her and she looked at me.  I looked at her again, and asked her a simple question: "what did I say?" She repeated what I said so I asked her if she had heard "Kiddish," "House," and "Walk."  No, she hadn't. It made me realize that this was a far too typical example of why men and women should not speak with each other -- it only increases confusion in the world.  We both agreed that I might be correct, but she pointed out that if men and women didn't speak to each other -- really associate in any way -- that there would be far fewer people in the world.

So, there you have it: the greater the number of men and women in the world  the greater the  confusion, and vice versa.  I'm in favor of disorder.  Fortunately, my wife puts up with mine.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Weather It Is (Grumbles)

Good Evening:

There are grumbles all around and they're not coming from the sky.  The grumbles start at the home -- usually in the early morning - with: "where's the rain?"  Every morning I am fielding questions about what to wear.  Shorts today?

When I go out, it gets worse.  I walk down the street and I am simply embarrassed -- if not afraid to hold my head up high.  I hear the comments: "there goes the weatherman..., but where's the weather?"

At some point a person has to stand up for himself and I've decided that now is the time to do so.  I take full responsibility and I am sorry (not if...) that people are upset and their wardrobes are a mess.

I promise to make amends.  First of all, just to remind people of what's coming (about three or four months from now), it's going to get warm, and then warmer still.  I am doing this so that after folks get the weather they really want, they'll appreciate me a little more the next time.

There will have to be a next time because by late Friday a storm is going to blow in and the warmth of the next few days will be soon forgotten.  In fact, the cold will build in over several days and there is a high probability of rain showers early next week.  There is also the potential for our first significant rain, but right now the forecasts are not definitive enough to say either way.

I hope that by the end of next week you will all agree that the past is behind us and all is forgiven.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Weather It Is (That Kind of Weather)

Good Afternoon:

It's been that kind of weather.  The temperatures are mild in the afternoon and nights are cool, and there are sprinkles or drizzle from time to time.

It's a time of change, and because the weather patterns are not very settled, it's a difficult time to forecast much ahead.

For instance, a few days ago it seemed that our first real rain of the season would be upon us at the end of the week. Instead, there will just be showers.

Looking ahead again, we see that the beginning of the week should feel more like early fall than winter arriving at our doorstep.  The warm weather will arrive on southeasterly winds early next week ahead of low pressure, stick around for a day or two (Monday and Tuesday), and then more winter-like temperatures should return on the backside of the low.

As the colder temperatures move in, there is a 50% chance of showers and a 25% chance of a heavier rain.  It's the time when plants and other creatures should be getting ready for winter, so we'll hope for cold temperatures and a heavier rain.

Speaking of creatures -- bad  creatures -- there continues to be in the news more news about predatory men preying on women, and these predators are turning up in far too many places.  In fact, our first accused offender -- Harvey Weinstein -- was most likely just one of many such men.

They say that "power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely," wrote John Emerich Dalton Acton in 1887. He went on to write that: "Great men are always bad men."  It seems to have turned out that many of whom we consider great personalities used their power to obtain favors that were not appropriate.

In a previous column, I pointed out the possible advantage of more modest dress, and noted that it might provide some protection against such men (as such men would more likely spend their energies on those they found more obviously appealing).  Please note, I am not speaking about rapists who commit acts of violence without any regard to their victims looks, personality, etc. My supposition may be true, but given the actual number of those accused it seems the real problem is the relatively large numbers of men engaging in this behavior, and the only practical way to stop this type of behavior is through sanctions against them (i.e, make it not worth their while to engage in this behavior).

On a parting note: corruption is not necessarily gender specific -- although the problem seems rather one sided at the moment.

Barry Lynn


Friday, November 3, 2017

Weather It Is (Maybe Some Rain)

Good Morning:

The latest forecasts are trending away from a moderately heavy rain event sometime late Shabbat into Sunday.  However, yesterday's (Thursday's) global ensemble (GEFS) forecast indicated that the storm would pass close enough to bring a period of rain late Shabbat.  The ensemble forecasts show that temperatures should fall to relatively cold levels both near the surface and aloft, and humidities should approach 100% as well.

This is the storm we spoke about very early this week, but the details are yet to be ironed out. Another storm should move our way early this coming week, but then pass to our north.  The global ensemble indicates that another fall rain storm is possible again late next week.  So, the rain chances keep coming, we just need to cash in.

One reason that it is difficult to forecast for our area is that the storms -- like our country itself - are relatively small compared to storms elsewhere.  Where I grew up, it might be raining or snowing over an area several hundred kilometers -- from Washington D.C to Connecticut. Here, if it rains in Haifa and Tel-Aviv at the same time, we're having an unusual storm.

While our weather may be "small-scale" and our country's size just the same, the people who live hear are like giants. And when they pass away, it is like a redwood tree falling after 1000 years. Here, I speak about Dr. Noam Charatz, who died on Wednesday morning, after falling very ill the previous week. I knew Dr. Charatz before I was his patient because he decided -- at a not young age -- to study for a Masters of Science in Atmospheric Science.  It turned out that he was involved in a project that examined the relationship between intense lightning and heavy rain.  It was quite a success, but it gave us the excuse to end our Dr-patient meetings with a word about the weather, our previous disappointments and our wishes for a rainy and snow winter.

It is ironic that a person who helped so many people died himself unexpectedly.  Yet, it is tragic irony because Dr. Charatz was not your typical doctor.  He was the person you went to see for an ache or pain that needed tending to, but long after that ache or pain was gone, you were still returning to him -- if not for another ache or pain -- but just to stay healthy.  He knew a tremendous amount, and he knew what what to "run" after and what not.

The last time I saw him, though, was another example of his special qualities.  He was the one that diagnosed my illness and sent me for treatment.  Yet, his last words after at the end of my visit were those of optimism -- with a touch of excitement, telling me that the prognosis was very good because I didn't yet have any obvious symptoms.  He was correct, but he didn't just say it, he expressed it in more than words, encouraging me to believe that all would be well. 

Because of his expertise, , DrCharatz treated patient after patient, and then some. His schedule was far too busy, and he invariably fell behind.  Appointments were scheduled every 8 minutes, and then those requiring urgent care were sometimes 2 minutes later. Yet, if one knew (and most did) that he would give each person the utmost and necessary attention, then one brought a phone, a computer, or a book, and one didn't mind the wait -- but was just grateful for his care.

The last time my wife had an appointment, he received a call from the office, saying that people were complaining about the wait.  He was very angry that they seemed to expect him to rush his treatments, and when my wife pointed out to him that he was getting close to pension, he told her that he wasn't sure he would make it.  Foresight or not, he is no longer with us and the voices one hears are those who wonder who can possibly replace a man of hist stature and kindness.  They wonder who can now guard them through the years.

Yet, Dr. Charatz was not only a doctor, he was a father and grandfather, too.  At the Levahia (burial), one could hear from those who spoke that his attention to his family was no less than he gave to his extended family (patients).  

My grandparents also passed away relatively early, and my parents continued much of their adulthood without parents.  While I wasn't old enough to miss my grandparents, I have been blessed to have parents who have followed a different path than their parents.  I am not sure how my parents got by, or how they dealt with their loss. It turns out -- I found out later -- that I ignored it (I guess it was too painful). 

We can't ignore the passing of Dr. Charatz -- yet, it is still too hard to believe -- but we should do more than honor his memory. We should strive to be like him.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

Good Evening:

The debate between the air conditioner and the heater was won this past Friday night by the heater. With a long rumble of thunder and additional flashes of lightning -- and some light rain -- the warm weather of Friday was replaced by much cooler weather of Shabbat.  No longer is the window open and no longer will the air conditioner cool the air.

True, this week's weather won't be particularly cold, but the nights will be on the chilly side, and some clouds and additional some showers on Monday and (hopefully) heavier rain at the end of the week will have folks running to turn on the heat.

The cause of our winter time weather is a deepening trough in the eastern Mediterranean, which will bring the coldest weather of the fall/winter season as we head into the end of the week and early next week.  The rain is not forecast to be very heavy, but it should be enough to make for a wet day or two in areas from the north to central areas (although there is still some uncertainty about how far south into central Israel the rain will get).

With the cold weather comes a greater desire for something sweet to eat with a cup of hot chocolate.
Thus, I was not surprised when my wife mentioned that her mother used to make a very moist and tender chocolate cake.  Unfortunately, the recipe has been lost -- but not to worry I found something that at least is called "Moist and Tender Chocolate Cake (picture of what's left over and recipe below).

This all seems very innocent, but then I checked the calendar.  You see, my wife made this request just a few days before her birthday period (here we celebrate birthdays from the date in the Gregorian calendar until the date in the Hebrew Calendar -- or vice versa).  While a birthday boy or girl could conceivably get presents on any of his or her birthday days, it occurred to me that my wife was also trying to get two cakes (tradition says: just one cake) for one birthday. So, I did the smart thing: I declared the start of her birthday period two days early.  So, despite her objections,  she's now a year older even though she's really not.

Barry Lynn
P.S. You can make the icing from powdered vanilla or chocolate pudding, with the addition of one regularly sized container of Rich's whipping cream, and some powdered sugar, etc).

https://www.verybestbaking.com/recipes/32386/Moist-and-Tender-Chocolate-Cake

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Weather It Is (Where The Rain?)

Folks are asking me "when it's going to rain", and that's if they haven't already asked me "where is the rain?"

Well, if your a fish this coming week will develop just the way you want it -- a few jumps above the surface and you'll be able to get a clean fresh water bath.  For us people, though, we'll stay seasonably mild, as a trough of low pressure develops over the eastern Mediterranean. This storm should produce a lot of rain over the sea, as it progresses only slowly eastward, possibly reaching our area very late in the week or early next week.  In fact, it might come soon after we add an additional prayer for rain in our long "Shomei Esre" (18 parts)  daily prayers.  This would be great, as we need to get started early this season to reduce the severe water deficit from last year.

In the meantime, an upper level trough will scoot across our area on Monday which will possibly touch off some tropical showers.  Otherwise, we should stay dry at least until the end of the week.

As a weatherman I have to be careful what I say, as I don't want to rain on someones parade, and then have it turn out to be a beautiful day (or vice versa).  

Nevertheless, I was taken aback by the criticism heaped on Mayim Bialik for daring to write: "I still make choices every day as a 41-year-old actress that I think of as self-protecting and wise...I dress modestly. I don’t act flirtatiously with men as a policy."  She then wrote that in an ideal world, women would be able to dress the way they want with out fear of predatory men, but one shouldn't be naive about the world we live in.

After intense criticism, she then issued an apology stating that: "what you wear and how you behave does not provide any protection against assault... [etc] you are never responsible for being assaulted."

She is technically correct: a gazelle that gets eaten by a lion is never responsible for being eaten. But really, the ones that do not get eaten often exercise greater care or do not put themselves in a position that they are more likely to become a lion's dinner.  Moreover, if a lion has to choose between an obviously tasty, well fed, gazelle and one that is not, it will choose whichever will bring the greater reward.

In all this discussion, what I believe women don't want to hear and really objected to is any suggestion that how they dress might affect how others, including predatory men who see them as someone to be taken advantage of.  After all, Ms. Bialik specifically wrote that nothing excuses predatory behavior, so why the intense criticism?

The facts are this: men and women use their beauty/good looks, attractiveness, and brains to get ahead in this world.  Orthodox Jewish law suggests that both sexes should exercise modesty in public areas for various reasons (e.g., to protect marriages, to emphasize the importance of inner personal characteristics over the physical world, etc).  This message -- that modesty in appearance/public life is a positive, even worthy attribute -- is what the criticism was really about.  It goes against the dogma of feminism that women should know no constraints. 

Lost in the shouting is that it is quite possible that modest behavior may indeed offer some protection from predators.  I don't know, but it is worth discussing.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Weather It Is (Still Fall...)

Good Evening:

Peoples wardrobes are changing over and the weather is to blame.

We even had our first rain last Monday (October 9th). I measured 0.12 inches (or about 3 mm of rain).  Since then, the weather has been on the chilly side with temperatures in the mid teens and highs in the low to mid 20s (except in the desert areas, which were closer to 30 C).

Last fall, the weather was punctuated by bouts of heat and winds that brought plenty of dust. This fall,  the winds are generally from the west and northwest.  Instead of dust, we've had more clouds and our first rain.  Moreover, the weather maps show a storm arriving on Monday, which should move southeasterly past Cyprus Sunday and then through our area on Monday into Tuesday night. The humidity maps show plenty of moisture to bring a period of showers from the north to the central areas, as we move from late Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

Tuesday should warm up as winds behind the storm switch to the south.  The warmer temperatures should persist until the end of the week, and the skies should turn a bit dusty as well. However, we see another storm possibly approaching on Shabbat or early next week, and fall weather should return as well.

Despite the chill and the rain last Monday, there was plenty of time to sit in the Sukka and exchange pleasantries.  The relaxed atmosphere was also conducive to having those heart to heart conversations people sometimes have.  Before continuing, I must interrupt to mention that when I met my wife for the first time I came prepared -- prepared with a list of what I considered positive attributes -- selling points we could call them.  In addition to having taken time off from my post-doctoral work to learn in Yeshiva, I mentioned (I actually read them off the palm of my hand) that I knew how to add numbers in my head, sweep the floor, paint, and cook.  Now back to our story: so, my wife says to me that she actually believed the stuff on the list, but didn't really think that the last item had any actionable quality to it.  In other words, she thought that she might see me outside from time to time, but never close-up where it really matters (in the kitchen). Anyway, she tells me that she is considering getting a second kitchen for Passover.  I didn't think very much of it, but it turns out that the only place we can put the second kitchen is far away from the first, and I wondered how many second kitchens in homes are really meant for husbands who thought they could cook.

Fortunately, Passover is not around the corner, and I haven't been officially banished yet.  I'll hope for the best.

Enjoy the good weather!

Barry Lynn

Friday, October 6, 2017

Weather It Is (Fall Like Sukkot)

Good Afternoon:

The first night of Sukkot was indeed on the chilly side, and I did, indeed, wear a light jacket. After a very hot summer, it is nice to get some fall-like temperatures, rather than the steamy weather of Sukkots' past.

Nevertheless, the next morning my wife entered the Sukka with sandals rather than shoes or even half boots.  When I pointed out that the weather did not accord with her attire, she said she didn't know it was going to be so cold.

Now, this is the person (actually woman) who sleeps an arms length away from a person (me -- a man) who actually majored in Atmospheric and Environmental science, has years of weather forecasting experience, and provides forecast on line in both English and Hebrew -- yet she didn't know.  I am not sure what to do about this, but I don't think the English/Hebrew dictionary we have in the house will help.

Well, she did helpfully point out that the clouds are clouds of winter and Sukkot (Thursday) afternoon my son reported that drops of rain fell from the sky.

Today (Friday), one can note streams of moisture moving west to east across the Mediterranean (while further south, potential tropical storms head westward off the African coast).  There is enough moisture for some rainy looking clouds to produce some light sprinkles.

Looking at the weather forecast maps, it will remain cool through Shabbat, and then Sunday afternoon we'll see a bit of a warm up.  However, the warm up will arrive ahead of a storm moving across the Mediterranean, which will bring with it Sunday night moisture at both lower (850 mb), middle (700 mb), and even upper (500 mb levels). While this doesn't look to be a heavy rain, there is the potential for more than some stray showers, and even for some small puddle forming raindrops.

The storm should be followed by even cooler weather, with temperatures during the rest of the holiday in the mid 20s (middle 70s) during the day, and mid teens (upper 50s, low 60s at night).  So, we're getting the new year off to a good fall/winter start.

Having gone through some difficult times, it was very nice to receive some good news to start off the new year.  The book "The Garden of Emuna (belief)..." (by Rabbit Shalom Arush) argues that a person must believe that both good and bad comes from "above," and that even the bad (no matter how difficult our predicament) is for our own good.

After I became more religiously observant (and after spending some time in more religious communities in America and some time learning at a Yeshiva in Israel (religious center)), it occurred to me that maybe I should move to Israel.  Why?  Because the Torah (our "Bible") is about the Land of Israel.  Even more important, I am blessed to be alive when it is actually possible for Jewish people to live in the Land of  Israel in the State of Israel -- something that was not possible for almost 2000 years.  I asked myself: how can I have any belief in God and ignore this obvious message to move here.

Still, I doubt that I am at the level of belief enumerated by Rabbit Arush, but if you ask me if I would go through what I did again, I might hesitate to say "no."  The reason: I was the recipient of so much kindness that it made a very strong impression on me. I really didn't know that people could be so kind.  Besides my wife and children who helped me through these difficult times, there were those that came to visit, and those that heard my story (everytime I told it, it receded further into the past, making it a little less painful).

They say that one should live each day as if it is one's last.  If you've had the misfortunate to try, you could easily say that it's not very practical.   However, I can suggest that what is important would be that of the days one lives (hopefully many), that one should be blessed that at least some of them should be meaningful, and at least some of them with happiness.

Modim L'Simcha/Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn


Sunday, October 1, 2017

Weather It Is (Some Heat, Followed By Fall)

Good Afternoon:

It's been nice, but we need to pause the weather tape and revert briefly back to more summer like weather on Monday.  Temperatures will return to the low 30s (upper 80s and low 90s) with high humidity.

However, just as quickly as the winds blow from a more southerly direction, they will turn around by Tuesday and blow from the west/northwest.  The result will be a return to temperatures in the mid 20s.  The start of Sukkot should be quite nice (some might even choose a light coat for the Sukka.

At the moment, the GFS (the global forecast model) and our WRF (higher resolution model) are showing a storm spinning up at the end of the week.  This is our first forecast storm of the season, and there is also an indication from the Global Ensemble Forecast System moel (GEFS) that a storm will indeed form in the eastern Mediterranean (meaning: if we change the initial conditions of the forecast to allow for possible error in the observations, we see that the rainy signal still persists, so we have higher confidence than if only the GFS by itself showed the storm).

This suggests that Shabbat and possibly Sunday may have fall showers.  The rest of the holiday looks to be mild and dry -- good weather for being outdoors!

Those who lived here a long time mention that it used to be rainier at the time of Sukkot than it is now.  One of those people is my wife.  When I decided to move to Israel, I also decided that I should marry an Israeli woman.  While not everyone was in agreement that this was a good idea, I thought it would make my transition from an American to Israel weather forecaster easier, so I thought it a good idea to make such an effort on my behalf (I am very practical).

It turns out that this was not necessarily the best approach to finding a wife.  You may remember that we have our differences: she likes summer and I like winter.  But there is something else: her family is from the east and mine is from the west; not only did we have to come from different directions to get here, but the cultures from which we base our world view are also different.

For instance, it is her firm belief that the children should be served first, while where I'm from the father is served first.  Despite my protestations that I need to eat first (and quickly) so I can be ready to hunt Mastadon, she has insisted on her way being right.

Until recently...

Recently being the time after my operation when I looked (and acted) distressed enough that I was served first (and sent off to bed).

Other "advantages:" I was told that I'm not allowed to lift heavy objects, so no taking out the garbage.  Cleaning the floors is also too strenuous.  If it weren't for the fact that I was quite sick, I really would have been living the highlife -- maybe even better than the family in "Dowton Abby."

Alas, my six weeks grace period is running out and quite frankly I'm not ready to return to my old work routine (or rather I don't want to).

Fortunately, I found a very interesting and useful website ("irresponsiblehusbands.com").  After checking off that you're not a robot and not a woman, you can gain access to this site.  For a small fee you can get a doctor's note for just about anything, including making a mess in the kitchen ("husband must be allowed to make mess to reduce stress and chance of ...").

I printed out three or four doctor's notes, and am ready to hand them to my wife (and kids) very soon.

Hag Samaech!

Barry Lynn




Monday, September 25, 2017

Weather It Is (The Best I Can Remember)

Good Evening:

The weather of the past week, including the New Year has been the best I can remember. Skies were sunny with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s (middle 70s to middle 80s F).

The nice weather will continue as the week progresses.  Low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean should combine with high pressure over Africa to maintain a consistent westerly/northwesterly breeze, which will insure that our temperatures remain on the more mild side.

At the end of the week, a storm will approach from the west.  Right now, there are indications that enough moisture at lower and middle levels will arrive on Shabbat (Yom Kippur) to bring the possibility of widespread showers from the north to the central areas.  Some moisture at 500 mb suggests some indications of thundershowers as well.

This Friday, we went from the New Year Holiday to Shabbat.  For those who are Ashkenazi, this means that we skipped the "Avinu Malkeinu" prayer (asking for forgiveness, health, employment, etc), as well as the preliminary Shabbat prayers.

This meant that we left out the prayer "Ashet Chayil," which among other things thanks and lauds the wife for all that she does.  My wife, you can imagine, protested - especially after all she did to prepare for the holiday. I could only point out that when a man of Ashkenazi marries a women of Sephardic (often associated with Jews from eastern Mediterranean countries) that she takes the traditions of the man.  So, my hands are tied, so to speak.

What they don't tell you is that regardless of what the "law" says about the passing of tradition, the wife is really in charge.  The advantage of this, of course, is that the Sephardim have less strict rules about what to eat on Passover, and they have other leniencies (they are less hung up, so to speak). They also do fewer "Ay-yah-yah's at the Synagogue).  However, for this small period of time and at that place (the head (or tail) of the table), my word prevailed.

Now that I am feeling better, Thank God, we can go back to normal in most things (I am in charge when my wife agrees; otherwise, I agree with her).

Have a good week, and Gmar Chatima Tova!

Barry Lynn

Friday, September 15, 2017

Weather It Is (Nice Weather!)

After high heat, the weather is certainly more pleasant with temperatures forecast to be this coming days in the upper 20s, near 30 C.  This will bring us to Erev Rosh HaShannah, which looks to be quite pleasant.  It's not fall weather, but more of a transition weather.

This Friday morning actually shows a chance of light showers over the northern part of the country, and some showers off the southwest coast.  Weak low pressure to our east will move east, while weak pressure develops over the Mediterranean.  The counterclockwise flow around the Mediterranean low will be sure to keep our winds from the west, which keep temperatures lower, but humidities a bit higher.

All in all, a good weather way to head into the new year!

I'd like to follow up, briefly, on my recent post concerning health care in Israel. Perhaps -- some would call it ironic -- I developed the worst pain I can remember about two weeks after my surgery. After a visit to my family doctor, I was off to Terem. Terem, for those who don't know, is a way station on the way to the emergency room.  For the most part, those who go there are well enough to be healed without a visit or stay in the hospital, with basic, but not major intervention.  Anyone can come, but for a small payment, and receive quick and efficient care.

After a series of tests, I was quickly referred to the public emergency room.  We decided to go to Hadassah Ein Karem, instead of Sharei Tzedek. There is a new road to Hadassah, so getting to one hospital compared to another is not that much more difficult, and parking is easier at Hadassah.

Moreover, it turns out that Hadassah has an obvious physical separation and treatment plan for those who come on their own compared to those (unfortunate) who do not (who are wheeled in and left with the "mob."). This is a great idea, and I was much appreciate of it, and in the end I received the care I required.

Yet, I arrived at about 11:30 in the morning and was discharged about 9 PM.  All the while, my wife was running back and forth reminding the staff that I needed treatment (for those who come by themselves, this can present a problem).  While I sat in a chair waiting, I noticed a sign that said: "tell us about your treatment?"  The more I waited -- while the doctors I needed to see flitted in and out of the treatment center -- the more this sign grated on my nerves.  Had I felt any better, I would have been more than angry. Moreover, the nurses confirmed that my "wait time" was typical!

There are those who might respond to what I've written with: "don't complain -- what do you expect from a public service?"  This would be my point exactly.  Timeliness and the dignity of the patient should be paramount, and this is a failing -- for those who support public health service (I do) -- that must be corrected by hiring more staff. Must our standards be low?

After a difficult two weeks, I would like to end this blog on a happier note. The foods of the Rosh Hashanah (the New Year) present us with both challenges to be like the head, instead of the tail of a fish, for example.  Another food we eat are carrots or in Hebrew Gezer (my favorite); by doing so we wish that negative decrees against us will be annulled.

For those who like to bake, one of those challenges is making Challah.  Hence, I present my recipe for holiday Challah, which I think I've finally got right.

Weather It Is (Just the -> Perfect Chalah Recipe



This makes two large challahs (round or oblong) and 4 small Challah rolls). For half a recipe, add 1/2 TB of salt, instead of 2 1/4 tsps (as below).  You can add raisins to the dough before you roll it up after the first rising (you should put the raisins along the middle of the dough and then fold it over, so the raisins don't cook on the outside of the dough).

You can preheat the oven to 190 Celsius (about 375 F).  If you do, you probably only need 25 minutes of cook time.  Turning the oven on, though, when you put the dough in allows the dough to quickly rise a bit more.

Set aside 6 cups bread flour (and 2 cups whole wheat flour) and then sift to remove any bugs.

In a mixing bowl.

1) Add 2 cups warm water.
2) Add 1/2 cup light brown sugar.
3) Add 1/4 cup honey.
4) Add 3 TB instant yeast.

--> Mix with an egg beater or fork.

5) Add one cup flour -- let rest until bubbles form (yeast needs to "warm-up").

--> Mix with an egg beater.

6) Add 1/2 cup gluten.
7) Add 1/4 cup oil.
8) Add two eggs.
9) Add one cup flour.

--> Mix with an egg beater.

10) Add 2 1/4 tsp of salt.  Don't forget the salt!

--> Attach bread kneading device (or use your hands).

11) Knead bread and add enough flour (about 5 cups) until bread is dry enough to handle with your hands (and a bit elastic). I usually let this go on about 5  (over beating can break down the gluten).
12) Remove from mixing bowl and knead a few minutes with your hands, adding enough flour to keep bread from being sticky (but don't add too much flour to make the dough dry).
13) Return to bowl.
14) Spray with canola oil. Cover with wax paper, and a light wet towel.  Put in a warm oven (60 C).
15) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size.
16) Punch it down, and then use 2/3 of the dough for making two loafs, and the rest for making rolls. You can add a little bit of flour to keep it from being sticky.
17) Grease pans.
18) Spray dough with Canola oil.
19) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size again.
20) Cook for 28 minutes on 190 C, until outside is hard to the touch.
21) Remove from oven, cool on racks until warm and then remove from baking pans.  **Enjoy**

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Weather It Is (Hot, Hot...)

Good Evening:

It's a warm evening here in Efrat -- and it's humid too.

Persistent counterclockwise flow around low pressure to our east combined with stable air and a short trajectory from the sea is making for an uncomfortable situation. The heat and humidity will probably continue until the end of the week, with temperatures in the mountains in the mid 30s (mid 90s F).   On Thursday and Friday, low pressure should develop over the Mediterranean and our heat will become a sweltering memory.

It is interesting to note that the weather maps are showing low pressure developing  to our south and moving up the spine of the Jordanian mountains on Friday as well.  These types of the systems are indicators that the tropical weather of fall (with heavy convective showers) may be on our near-term horizon.

With such heat right now, the best we can do is dream of fall.  However, if your a dog (like our dog), you might dream of having a good bark at your neighbor's dog.  While heading off to bed, this seemed to be just the case, as our dog made small barking noises while snoozing outside our door.  This is the kind of conversation that leads to marriage "intimacy.'' So, my wife says that she dreamed all night about being at the beach. Much to my embarrassment, I had to admit that I dreamed about being in a giant snowstorm that never ended.

Given these obvious differences between us (very typical of married couples), a husband has to be on his best behavior.  That's why I strive to be the "ideal" husband.  If it wasn't for the fact that I'm on the short side ("can you get that down for me dear"), a bit self-absorbed ("honey, time to help with the homework"), and often in the way, I'm pretty much perfect.

You see, I grew up in a feminist household, which means that I help out with the laundry, wash the floors, and spend some of my time in the kitchen.  However, while good in theory, a kitchen husband is really something the mother-in-law inflicts on the  daughter-in-law.

Keeping the last bit in mind, my wife faced one of those existential choices that could have influenced our marriage for years to come (God willing).  Having tired from a bit of Challah making, I was lying on the couch.  I called for help -- as sitting up on my own after my surgery is still difficult.  I was ready to go back to the kitchen. This was her chance!  Had she simply shrugged her shoulders, pretended not to hear, or simply run from the house, I would still be on the couch and the kitchen would have been returned to her tender ministrations.

Anyway, after spending hours in the kitchen on Friday, she said: "don't you need to rest?"  I said, "don't worry, I'm going to 'hit the wall,' and does it matter how hard?"

There are somethings that one spouse says and the other hears that are better left unanswered -- no matter how wise or not.

That wall really hurts!

Barry Lynn


Sunday, September 3, 2017

Weather It Is (Swings)

Good Afternoon:

This week is one of swings in temperature and humidity.  There's a bit of a breeze, but the high humidity is making for even higher Heat Indices.

This is a time of transition, but it is also a time when there is a chance of precipitation (not much), and there are -- on average -- about half as many extremely hot days as August.  This information was taken from "the Climate of Israel: Observation, Research, and Application."  However, it is a bit dated: summers now seem to last longer, and October is no longer really the start of the rainy season.

Last week was hard for me.  I spent most of the week cooped up in a room with no access to the outside. When you starve a weatherman of the weather, then what becomes of him?

I was in a hospital room at "Asuta" Ramat Chayil, Tel Aviv.  I had the good fortune to be there because I was able to buy private insurance when I came to Israel years ago (and we've had outside help: the joke "how do you make a small fortune in Israel? Start with a large fortune" really refers to those who family members who live outside Israel).

Everyone says you must choose your doctor and the best technology, but the key to good health care is the recovery, and this requires timeliness (responsive nursing care), cleanliness (to reduce post-operative infections), and privacy (the ability to rest/sleep in a quiet setting).

Unfortunately, our previous health Minster from Yesh Atid (Yael German) enacted statutes and/or legislation making it much more expensive for Israeli citizens to buy private insurance.  So, it is much more difficult for Israelis to obtain the services I recently received at Asuta. She claimed that the changes would "turn back the clock:" reducing spending on private insurance while increasing spending on public spending."

Her idea to improve public services at the expense of private services by spending more on public services makes simple sense.  But, in health care, nothing is simple!  Israelis were/are buying private insurance because public service (while very good at primary care) is not very good at secondary care (it's a miracle that Israelis have such a long life span despite this care!).  Why wasn't/isn't very good -- because there is no incentive to be better, and our representatives don't want to spend the money to make it so.

But even more important: when she writes to turn the "clock back" it ignores the technological advances first introduced in the private hospitals.  It is these technological advances that made an make possible better outcomes, and it is the private health care system in Israel that sets the "yard sticks" for the public hospitals.  We can all have equally bad care, or most of us can (hopefully) have good care -- but it won't happen unless private care is encouraged for Israelis, and not just for tourists.

Barry Lynn

Monday, August 28, 2017

Weather It Is (It's Nice Here)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is simply nice.  There's a light breeze, and temperatures are in the mid-twenties (upper 70s F).   The nice weather should continue throughout the week as low pressure over the Mediterranean combines with higher pressure over Africa to maintain a west (or northwesterly) wind.

Of course, we are moving closer to our rainy season.  For this to happen, the monsoon over India needs to weaken and recede eastward, allowing temperatures aloft to fall.  The falling temperatures will allow clouds to build in height, which is necessary for droplets to turn into rain drops large enough to reach the ground.

One place where there has been no problem making rain is Texas.  The amounts that have fallen there in a day or two are about the same amounts we would normally receive here in the Jerusaelem area during our entire winter. There have been winter storms that bring about 100 mm or so of rain (and occasionally in fall there is even heavier rain in coastal areas), but this isn't close to the widespread amounts that are falling and will fall over there.  Such heavy rain requires a good supply of moisture, which the Gulf of Mexico is amply providing.  It  was also warm enough to combine with favorable conditions aloft to create the category 4 hurricane ("Harvey") that devastated Rockport Texas (and now torments the state with heavy rain as a tropical storm).

Theses types of storm, and these types of heavy rain are what scientists fear will become more prevalent if the world continues to warm.  The likelihood of such storms will depend on atmospheric conditions aloft, which could either change to favor or disfavor such storms.  Hopefully, the global warming naysayers are correct, and elevated CO2 levels will not lead to much global warming.  But, should we take the chance?

Barry Lynn


Monday, August 21, 2017

Weather It Is (Nice Weather, For Now)

Good Evening:

It's 23 C (low 70s F), with 77% humidity, and northwesterly breezes.  As my son said: it's nice outside!

I didn't argue with him.

Unfortunately, low pressure will build from the south and winds will switch from the west to east, which means that the heat will return, especially at the end of week (and Shabbat).   Temperatures should be quite hot in the mountain areas (mid 30s; low to mid 90s F) and reach 40 C (104 F) or above in the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.  Down south temperatures will also reach above 40 C.

Along the coast, temperatures will be cooler than inland areas, but the humidity will be higher.

In summary, while Tuesday and Wednesday will still stay cool, the heat will rise significantly on Thursday and Friday, before fading early next week.

One person who seems to have also lost his cool (more than once) is the President of the United States (POTUS).  I've been following what happened and it seems that POTUS spends his time either defending the indefensible or criticizing those who disagree with him.  Moreover, he tweets incessantly, but he doesn't sing like a bird.

After watching POTUS's second press conference, I have to agree with him -- in part: the "alt-left" can also be violent (and it, and at least some of the regular "left" is antisemitic).  Yet, it is interesting to note that various disparate groups (including mobsters) banded together to (literally) fight the Nazi parties that grew in the United States prior to WWII.  When making decisions and in understanding history, context is everything.  Mr. Trump's tweets are off-key, and so are his judgements.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Weather It Is (Hotter, But Then Cooler)

Good Evening:

The winds are switching to the southwest, and with the wind shift should come hotter (mid 30s C), more humid, and even dustier weather.  The southwest winds are developing between high pressure over Africa and weak low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean.

However, after a hot Shabbat, low pressure over the Mediterranean should strengthen and the winds should shift back to the northwest.  This will bring a few degrees of temperature relief, as well as clearing skies.

People are asking me if I've received a number of complaints about the weather.  I can tell you that I have been asked that question far more often than having received actual complaints.  Perhaps, I need to count some of those questions as complaints -- as not many people have the gumption to complain about the weather.  After all, wouldn't you be a bit embarrassed to let anyone know that you think that your local weatherman (or women) can do something about the weather?

So, you ask the question, and I think: "good thing they don't know."

Barry Lynn


Monday, August 14, 2017

Weather It Is (So Goes The Cool Weather)

Good Evening:

Folks are still complaining about the heat -- and I don't blame them.  True, it has been a bit cooler but temperatures are still uncomfortably hot

To make things worse, high pressure will develop over Africa and the clockwise flow around it will combine with weak low pressure over the Mediterranean to bring back the heat again as the week moves towards its end (Shabbat).   The heat will arrive on southwest winds, and it will probably turn dusty as well.

My wife, who is from Venus, is even complaining about the heat.  She doesn't remember a time where the windows were closed so often, and the air conditioner worked so many daylight hours.

Even though I am from Mars -- and I look forward to winter cold (and hopefully snow) -- I grew up in the "it's not the heat, but the humidity" eastern United States -- so I able to tough it out (after all, I am a man).

Still, being from the cold of Mars never prepared me for marriage.   As you all know, men and women first meet on the moon, where its neutral ground allows for a synthesis of bliss to overtake the young couple as they stride happily to the marriage canopy (the "Chupa").

But, they have to live somewhere, and when they do they soon realize that they are quite different, and it is usually the men who have the hardest time adjusting. For instance, did you know that the garbage is full?  If it is (and if you didn't know), this means: "take it out." Of course, you'll never hear these words, but husbands being smarter than their animals do eventually learn.

There are plenty of other examples.

This evening the Wife said that we should meet at the Mall ("Canyon") for dinner with the kids. It wasn't too long ago when "The Canyon" meant the mall in Malcha, Jerusalem. But now, The Canyon means the mall in Gush Etzion (Just so you know, until our neighbors the Palestinians started knifing and running people over, the mall and adjacent big supermarkets were a paradigm of coexistence).  Of course, I assumed that she meant the "original" mall, and had to settle for eating my sushi in the house.

So, yes, we have a mall here in Gush Etzion, as well as schools, farms and vineyards, two or three pools, soccer (and softball) fields, as well as a performance hall.  Gush Etzion is not one big "settlement," but a place where many Israelis live in different cities -- just like they lived and still do within the old borders of Israel (before the Arab countries tried to destroy the State of Israel in 1967). There is also one more husband who has been reminded its better to ask than think for himself.

Barry Lynn
P.S Gush Etzion is located to the southwest of Jerusalem, and was populated by Jewish people prior to the first war (of 1948), when Israel won its independence).

Friday, August 11, 2017

Weather It Is (Not The Dog Days)

Good Aftenoon:

Our Prime Minister may feel that these are indeed the "Dog Days of Summer," but weather wise most dogs will be happy with next week's weather.  True, it will be on the hot side, but at least it should be in the low 30s, not mid 30s, and the nights will be cool, as winds blow gently around low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean. These are perfect sleeping days -- if you are a dog -- and even better sleeping nights.

It turns out that the phrase "Dog Days of Summer" refers to days during the period that Sirius, the Dog Star, rises at the same time as the sun.  (See: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dog-days-of-summer-owes-its-namesake-to-the-stars-not-summer-heat/70002163).  This often happens during the hottest days of summer (July 3rd to August 11). While I didn't know this, this was thought to be a bad omen, a time of fever and catastrophe.   What's the best thing to do during a time like this? It's to lie low, which is exactly what dogs do (when they are not doing something else). 

Fortunately for us (and the dogs), the weather this coming week will encourage rather than discourage activity, and will be a nice week for those taking vacations or just getting outside.

Enjoy, and Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Weather It Is (Oh The Heat)

Good Afternoon:

It seems like the heat doesn't stop, and it is going to get worse.

Low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean will weaken while low pressure over the Arabian desert will strengthen.  The result will be a shift in the winds from "somewhat" cooler westerly winds to more easterly winds,  This means the air will become less humid, but it will also be hotter.

This is really bad for us for two reasons:  i) it's dangerously hot, and ii) because of a relatively dry winter, the heat is creating a severe wildfire risk as we move into the fall (moreover, the government dropped their wildfire forecast system due to a lack of funds to upgrade it).

They say: if that if you can't stand the heat you should get out of the kitchen.  My guess is that they were not speaking to men, who are never in the kitchen, and if they are, their stay would not be long.  True, I do sneak in from time to time, but I am always careful to vacate (the kitchen) before the heat rises too much.

So, they must have been speaking to women.  And, if they were, it must have been one woman speaking to another, probably so the men wouldn't hear.

Fortunately, these words were not said in vain. For instance, while our neck of the woods has been unusually hot, the eastern US temperatures are really on the cool side.  So, women might want to find some relief in the kitchens of NY, for example. Of course, if you go to kitchens on the far west coast (especially Washington state), the kitchens are notoriously hot.  So, you probably won't see too many women going there.

When I was a kid, we used to sleep with a house fan that would draw cool air in from the outdoors.  Now, my parents house is air-conditioned, and only rarely are the windows open.  The same can be said for those who live in the cooler climes of Israel, like Gush Etzion.  It sounds and feels like global warming to me.

In fact, the naysayers admit that temperatures have warmed since the 1970s, but they point out that it is harder to show warming during about the past 10 years (on average -- world wide).

Perhaps, we will return to this subject later.

Have a good week,

Barry Lynn

Friday, July 28, 2017

Weather It Is (The Heat Continues)

Good Afternoon:

The weather continues to be unseasonably hot. Winds continue to rotate counterclockwise around low pressure to our east.  Unfortunately, temperatures will vary from the low to 30s to mid 30s throughout the week. This is obviously not good weather for fasting on T'She B'av.

It is strange that there is so much arguing among Jews, and such little respect given for those who are in disagreement -- and the (date of the) destruction of the Temple is just around the corner.

I wonder how many people who claim to be following The Law actually pay any attention to the reasons given for the destruction of the Temple.  It's like a person who speeds (in his car) all the time, but never thinks that he (or she) will be involved in a deadly crash.

In case you are wondering: I don't think we should have removed the metal detectors.  You can't reason with or appease our neighbors.  They don't respect gratuity -- it is a sign of weakness.  Perhaps it is time for our PM to retire.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn