Thursday, July 30, 2015

Weather It Is (Extreme Heat)

Good Evening:

Low pressure entered over Saudia Arabia will build west and northward during the next few days and bring extreme heat to the country.

While there is still some ambiguity regarding temperatures on Shabbat (low to upper 30s), Sunday temperatures are showing considerably less spread and they indicate extreme heat.

In the center mountains, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s (closer to 40 C in some locations), while in the coastal plain temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s (but with relatively high humidity, making for high heat indices).

However, in THE DEAD SEA VALLEY temperatures will be close to 50 C (or 120 C).  Must it be said how dangerously hot these temperatures will be?

Further south it will be in the low to mid 40s as one heads down Arad and then  to Eilat.

The temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will remain hot, although just how hot is not clear.

There will be somewhat cooler weather towards the end of next week, followed by a "warm" up early the following week, before temperatures cool down quite a bit by mid-month.

Note, the winds will be moderately strong, which coupled with the dry weather and hot weather will bring an elevated fire level.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Weather It Is (High Heat)

Good Morning:

The temperatures are a warm 28 C at about 9:30 A.M this morning.  Humidities, though, are quite low, so it doesn't feel like its close to 30 C.

However, low pressure to our east will be expanding westward over the next several days and temperatures will be moving steadily upwards.  Unfortunately, there is the potential for extremely hot temperatures -- possibly dangerously hot temperatures -- from Shabbat until mid next week.

Right now, there is a lot of spread in the global ensemble forecast, so we're not able to better define just how hot, hot will be.  On the "cooler" side of hot, temperatures will be in the mid 30s in most locations.  On the hotter side of hot, temperatures will be in the low 40s in many locations.

Our previous extreme heat event lasted pretty much just a single day.  This heat event will probably last at least four days.

The result: dangerous conditions will prevail across much of the country, where heat stroke and dehydration are more likely for those working or recreating out doors.  There will also be quite elevated fire risk due to drying of vegetation and breezy wind conditions.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Weather It Is (Hot)

Good Afternoon:

Today (Thursday) and tomorrow Friday will be hot days.  In fact, Friday should be even a few degrees warmer than today.  Still, the humidity is way down (at least in the central mountains), which makes the hot weather much more bearable.

However, places located just inland of the sea will have heat and humidity, making for quite uncomfortable weather in our coastal and inland/lowland cities.  The deserts will be - well deserts.

The humidity will rise everywhere early next week, but temperatures will cool off a bit just in time for the 9th of Av fast. Still, it will be a day where less activity is better since it will still be hot enough to cause dehydration.

One place to stay out of will be the kitchen, and one should probably heed the maxim: "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen."  Imagine, though, for a moment, a young man trying to impress his new wife with his kitchen skills.  He puts on his best clothes and proceeds to pull out various ingredients for his first cake, but without a recipe.

This is how I felt after my wife turned her intention to paint some of our walls to an actual occupation (for the evening).   She had her best clothes on and was about to begin painting with out regard to the hour or even a stick to stir the paint,. "That's mens work your doing," I said.

She insisted that she could do it, and even went up to change her clothes.  Not only that, while my son did the manly thing with me  and watched a baseball game, she and the daughters proceeded to paint in very good time all that needed painting.  They even cleaned up after themselves (although I had to remind them to do this -- at first).

What have I learned from this experience?  There is very little I can do here better than the womenfolk but watch baseball games.

Men really made a mistake.  They thought that they could be good husbands by taking on some of the traditionally women tasks, only to find out that their wives do "men-tasks" even better than they.

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 20, 2015

Weather It Is (An Oasis)

Good Morning:

The temperatures will be on the rise a bit over the next few days.  High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s in many locations, with inland areas warmer than coastal areas.

Looking at the weather map we see the desert high menacing us from the east.  However, high pressure over eastern Europe will feed cool air into the eastern Mediterranean, which will help to spin up a weak low pressure area over Cyprus.  The result will be to push back against the desert high early next week as winds from the west strengthen accordingly.

Hence, are somewhat hot temperatures will cool off a bit and we may again hear cries of "where's the summer?"

Anyway you look at it, we're an oasis in the middle of a desert.  In fact, this is really a desert of civilization.  While things are not perfect here -- and Hamas continues to build new subway (tunnels) lines from Gaza to Israel (using supplies we send to them) -- we're certainly a lot better off than other places, and our weather is certainly best of all.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Weather It Is (A bit hot)

Good Morning:

It looks like the typical summertime pattern will "win-out" over the next few days.  This means that temperatures will rise into the low 30s in many locations away from the sea-shore, and even higher in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys, as well as southern deserts.  It looks like temperatures will remain summer-like through next week before cooling off slightly the week after.

Fortunately, the temperatures won't be climatology extreme.

Climatology is based on a  long term weather record.  Might we also develop a "Diplomacology."  Based on the long record of relations between countries, I will predict that Iran will develop a nuclear bomb sooner than later, and that they will use their new revenue after sanctions are lifted  not to improve the welfare of their people (as predicted by President Obama), but to fund new terrorist activities.

When the President says that the Iran deal is "a risk we have to take," does he mean the risk of nuclear annihilation? While it is true that increased sanctions might not prevent the Iranians from developing the bomb and that a military strike might not entirely succeed (or even lead to a major war), it isn't nuclear annihilation.

When deciding to protect against a potential severe weather event, one has to weigh the probability of the event against the cost versus potential loss.  When the loss is so potentially high, I believe it necessary to take whatever protective action to prevent the Iranians from building a bomb, while continuing the sanctions until (hopefully) the government is overthrown.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Weather It Is (No Change, Really)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly nice and it is going to stay nice.  In fact, it is going to warm up 5 or 6 degrees over the next week, but cool down a few degrees the following week.

In other words, not much is happening.  The trough over eastern Europe will filter in some moderating air as the low pressure area to our east builds westward a bit.  The low pressure area's influence will win out, but just a bit -- hence the slight rise in temperatures.

Actually, a bit of a warm up would be nice because last night was a bit cool for short-sleeves.
To go without a jacket for either cold or rain for the long summer and early fall months is a pleasure.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Weather It Is (The Perils of Summer)

Good Morning:

Yesterday we went over to the beach in Ashdod.  I can tell you that the Jelly Fish were having a great time, and that the folks at the beach enjoyed watching them float by.  All that water and not a drop to swim in.  Apparently, these "fishes" are not even native to the Mediterranean, but arrived via the Suez Canal from the Red Sea.  At least they tend to come right before T'Sha B'Av when swimming is forbidden anyway.

It's not that easy to get to Ashdod from here, and there are a lot of twists and turns.  Fortunately, we were guided by a very nice woman who gave clear and explicit directions.  I can't even imagine having to look at a map.

It made me think that I need something like this for the home.  You see: summertime is perilous for men because the kids are home and the wife is liable to pop in at any moment.  Why is this a problem?  Because men don't want to be seen "in between."  For example, mid-mess.  They want their wives to see them only at certain times and in the best of light.

So, imagine the advantage if someone could develop a "Waze" or rather "Ways" for the kitchen. "Put pot away."  "Scrub harder."  "Recalculating!!!: you're not done young men.  Turn around and clean that sink."  "Hazard reported outside: wife on the way."

Think of the advantage.  Think of the possibilities.  Give Ways to your husband and you'll have satisfaction (Women Are Yearning for Satisfaction).

Speaking of being satisfied: many folks seem pleased with how our summer is playing out.  It's been on the cool side, and even with a fresh afternoon breeze.  It's actually going to get a few degrees cooler  over the next few before warming up a bit mid-next week, only to cool off again a few days later.  The coolness could bring some summertime cloudiness as well as temperatures also cool off aloft.

Some might think that are cool weather means that green house gases have no effect on our weather.  However, other places are comparatively hot.  While it is true that it's more a matter of where you are in the weather pattern compared to the average temperature of the globe, increasing green house gases can lead to hot spots in the atmosphere, leading to more extreme temperatures in places located in the "ridges" of the global circulation patterns (i.e., areas with more sun and southerly winds) rather than in the "troughs," where we are this summer.

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 6, 2015

Weather It Is (Stones in the Atmosphere)

Good Evening:

The weather was nicely warm today.  Some might call it hot, but it really wasn't too hot.  

As I mentioned, the reason for the persistent ridge (mid)/trough (east) over Europe is in part because of an unusually strong El-Nino in the Pacific ocean.  

(See here for a link: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html).

El-Nino is the interaction between unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific ocean and the atmospheric circulation.  As noted in my previous blog, there is an unusually strong El-Nino this year and it is bringing exceptional changes to our weather.  For us, it's pretty nice: not to hot (during last June and now July).  However, other areas (like central and western Europe) have well above normal temperatures, while other locations have had intense rains.  There was even a double tropical cyclone system that by itself was leading to perturbations in the atmosphere.

El-Nino is sort of like throwing a stone into the atmosphere and then watching the ripples move outward from the impact.

On Friday there was a report that a car carrying the commander of a battalion was stoned.  

http://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-teen-killed-by-senior-idf-officer-in-west-bank/

The person exited his vehicle, but was forced to kill the stone-thrower (a relatively young Palestinian).  There were cries of injustice and murder.  After all, it's just a stone.  Perhaps these folks never heard the childhood rhyme (Sticks and stones can break my bones, but names will never hurt me).  

Let's be serious: stone do kill and they can kill .  On the same day, The New York Times reported on the death of a man in Seattle.  He was threatening a group of policemen with a stone, after having thrown stones at passing cars.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/us/report-concludes-police-shooting-victim-in-washington-state-probably-had-a-rock.html?

When asked why the stone thrower was killed even though he was surrounded by three policeman.

“Well, one rock can kill you,” Officer Flanagan responded.

The man killed was high on drugs.  The Palestinians are "high" on hate, courteous of their government sponsored radio/TV and internet, as well as mosques.  Hate kills.  Change the hate (change the government?) and perhaps there will be a peace agreement.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Weather It Is (Unusual, yes)

Good Evening:

"How can it be," she asked, "that the neighbor has their air conditioner turned on, but we do not?"

To be honest, I really don't know what the problem was or is.  My roof weather station said 28 C (not 38 C)  Still, one must be sensitive about these things, so I did try to express my consternation at the apparently unfair and unwarranted situation.  To make matters worse, the neighbor's air conditioner was dripping with a loud ping, so changing the subject to cooler matters didn't make the situation any better.

To put it in Weather-ese, here's what happening.

From the tropical storm group forum:

"The westPAC monsoon has ramped-up to epic levels.  A river of west wind goes across all of Micronesia (south of 10N) bringing white-out squalls with gale-force wind gusts.  Every island
from Palau in the west (135 E) to Kwajalein (168 E) has been drenchedwith episodes of extreme rainfall in squalls of high wind...  The timing of the current westerly wind episode with twin TCs so far east is probably a sign that strong El Nino is now unstoppable."(From Marc Lander).


"Barry--The mean state over the whole season probably favors looking something like the link below, although there is a very small sample size of similar strong-side El Niño events this time of year:
http://tinyurl.com/nujkojq ,
MJO-based composites in combination with El Niño states suggest that the intraseasonal pattern, including the westerly wind burst and the northward-moving northwest Pacific monsoon trough, favors other patterns, including the Gulf of Alaska block and the warm ridge in Europe. Such present patterns are probably not part of the mean state." (From Paul Roundy).

What they're saying is that the weather is weird, which is associated with an incredibly strong El Nino and the West Pacific Monsoon.  It's really hot in some places (like Europe) and really wet in other places.  There's a huge drought in California.   Fortunately, here it's just nice.  I mean, we're talking about 28 C for a high in July, instead of 33 (or even hotter if things get a bit toasty).

Looking ahead for the next few days, we see a small rise in temperatures, and then some slightly cooler temperatures, depending on the exact position of the ridge over Europe and its associated trough over the eastern Mediterranean.  Complicating matters is the strength of the desert low to our east, but it doesn't seem to match up against the European ridge-trough system (and the strong El-Nino and MJO).

Barry Lynn



Thursday, July 2, 2015

Weather It Is (Lurking...)

Good Morning:

The weather pattern has generally transitioned into a summer time pattern. In summer, there is a deep low pressure system located over the Saudi desert (note, this is not the Sionist desert -- the place has a name).  It is not a low pressure area that forms because of divergence (rising and divergent air) associated with a 500 mb trough, but rather because of the intense heating of the desert surface.  It is referred to as a "heat-low."

This low pressure area expands and contracts a bit as the summer progresses. When it expands, our winds turn from a westerly direction and blow more out of the north and northeast, bringing the hot winds of the desert rather than the relatively coolness of the sea-breezes.

In the next week, this low pressure will almost bring us back to the high heat of summer.  However, we're going to live life just on the edge -- between bliss and non-bliss.  Fortunately, bliss will win out and it won't get too hot.  There is still a lot of forecast variability regarding the position of this low pressure area, so we have to mention that temperatures could range from the upper 20s to low 30s in many places.

At the end of next week, the low will migrate northward and winds will turn more westerly, bringing us more moderate temperatures.

We live in a strange place, and a stranger world.  I find that my mind likes to flash through the day. For instance, yesterday I imagined myself pulling over my shopping cart and grabbing an egg plant off the shelf. Soon, I would be doing the same for a bag of hot dogs.  (These were all extra items requested by the wife: I find that walking through important events like these before they happen can lead to a greater likelihood of success).  Prepping for the rest of the day, I saw myself speeding along to work (except at the lights, where I often stop on yellow), eating lunch, returning home, etc.

We like to take these things for granted, but imagine the poor life of a person in ISIS.  He thinks: at 9:00 I drown someone and then cut off their head.  Or, maybe, I'll cut off their head and then drown them.  At 10:30, I'll criticize Hamas for not being extreme enough (the same group that builds tunnels to attack us instead of hospitals).

You see, there is evil in this world and there is plenty of it.  It's really unfortunate (understatement)., and we are surrounded by it. Now, imagine yourself a good Jewish person who spends his time obsessing about Israel.  Boy, those Israelis set up check points that hinder the movement of Palestinians. Boy, they had an argument over religious observance.  Let's hate Israel!

Why not hate someone who really matters?!

I'd also like to simply ask why don't they keep their shirts on and recognise the wonderfulness that exists here.  This is a place where Jewish life flourishes, where the Jewish people are flourishing, and we're doing it while respecting the religious and democratic rights of others who wish to live with us in this holy land.  True, we'd like nothing more to remove all of  the check points; we'd like very much to reach a peace agreement as well.  Some day, it just might happen.

Barry Lynn