Weather It Is (A Breather, Yet)

Good Morning:

By this time last year, we had recorded only 11 mm of rain in Efrat. This year, we are close to 150 mm.  Last year, we received almost 300 mm in a week's time, but nearly nothing until March.

After last year's intense winter storm, a blocking pattern developed in western Europe (which directed the rest of the winter time storm-energy into northern Europe).  This year, we generally see that storms transverse across southern Europe, while higher pressure over north-central Europe feeds cold (storm) energy southward, helping to spin up these storms as they approach the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead through this week, however, we see no significant weather.  Yet, we do these a signal for much colder and possibly much wetter weather next week.  Contained within this signal is some unseasonably cold weather. Nevertheless, the possibility of stormy weather remains at this time unclear.  It's possible, but not certain.

On the other hand -- always the optimist -- we ordered larger sized snow bibs for our oldest daughter.  My wife (the Israeli) thinks this sort of funny (if not a waste of money).  I can only say that one would hate to miss the few chances to enjoy the snow for want of proper snow pants.  In my day, we went up north to ski. Here, we are hopeful that we might step outside to build a snowman.  

By the way, after not snowing for three years in a row, we have now had snow three years in a row.  Snowfall amounts in the eastern US have certainly been increasing compared to the decade of the 90s. We should, perhaps, be optimistic.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Our Storm Ends -- Eventually)

Good Morning:

One might have noticed last night the pitter patter of raindrop-feet on the roof.  If one listened carefully, one might have noticed that they were not all of the same size -- one shoe does not fit all!

Our winter storm will weaken today, and eventually move away tonight.

In the meantime, our forecast still shows that between 10 and 25 mm should fall in the area of Ashquelon (south).  The rain will be drifting southward towards the far southern coast and Beer-Sheva. Even though the rain is ending, the amounts could still exacerbate flooding.  Rain will continue in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion as well. 

Looking ahead: with the exception of a slight chance of showers early next week, we are looking at drier and warmer weather until week's end.  

The following week should see a drop in temperatures.  There is a 30% chance of rain the following week.  If the rain occurs, temperatures should drop off and snow may fall on the Golan again.  We're watching a slight chance of snow in the higher elevations, but this is not something to worry about yet.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Stampede)

Good Morning:

The pleasant pitter-patter of rain drops of the past few days has become a stampede.

Moisture streaming around low pressure over Cyprus will continue to develop heavy rain in a corridor from Ashquelon to Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. Forecast rain amounts are > 100 mm within this corridor stretching eastward through Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. There will be greater than 50 mm in an area extending into southern Tel Aviv and to its east.

The strongest wind speeds will occur within the next few hours within the heavy rain corridor.  Gusts of > 50 km/h are likely.

Periods of rain should continue tomorrow, but in lighter amounts.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Arrives)

Good Morning:

The winter storm we wrote about a few days ago is upon us.

It will start later this afternoon in the north and heavy rain, strong winds, and lightning will move southward during the evening and night. 

The storm is forecast to last up to three days (into Thursday night).

There will be some snow on the Hermon, but the real story will the total rain amounts that should average between 50 to 100 mm from about Beer-Sheva to the Golan.  Localized areas of greater than 100 mm will also occur.

Flooding is expected in all flood prone areas: the coastal cities, area of Beer-Sheva, and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm)

Good Morning:

Yesterday's storm brought mostly wind rather than rain.  However, yesterday's storm will strengthen today and bring rain to most of the central and northern parts of the country.  There is a small chance of flooding in the central and north coastal regions with some of the storms, as well as lighting from noon today until Monday  morning.

The rain on Monday should spread to the eastern valleys.  Total rain amounts should be between 50 to 100 mm along the coast and 10 to 25 mm in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys through Tuesday afternoon. Lighter rain amounts are forecast throughout the Arava.

There is a high probability that more cold air will move into the storm by mid-week, and hence very strong development is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be a very heavy rain covering most of the country with very strong and possibly damaging winds. Snow is a strong possibility on the Hermon.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Storm and Merry...

Good Morning:

High pressure over central Europe will help funnel wintertime temperatures our way during the next few days.  The cold air will help to spin up a series of storms, which should bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Flooding is a distinct possibility in flood prone areas like the Jordan Valley, Dead Sea, and areas of the northern Arava.  Rain may continue off and on all week!

The rain should enter the coast this afternoon and spread to the central mountains later in the day.  While Shabbat may start not very rainy, rain should redevelop and come down heavy at times during the afternoon and continue into Sunday.

Our security forces just stopped a "Christmas" shipment of knives, fireworks, and swords, which were meant to make our Palestinian neighbours a merry time indeed.  Imagine if the shipment contained toys? Unfortunately, this is as likely as John Lennon's song "Imagine" coming to be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Big Storm On The Way)

 

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly pleasant, and it will actually be warming up a bit ahead of the next storm system.  However, this is only a short ride before the crash - the crash of a severe winter storm that should batter us with heavy rain and strong winds from Friday night onwards.

In fact, this should be a prolonged period of wet weather and rain amounts should be generally between 50 to 100 mm over large portions of the country, with some areas receiving more than 100 mm over the wet period.

Looking further ahead, we see the possibility of another storm later next week.  This one might bring snow to Mt. Hermon.

I just heard that the government suggests we post guards at the entrances to synagogues. They are also suggesting that all Israelis buy protective gear -- the kind that resembles "full-body armor." These body armor suits will be available very soon and can be picked up at the same location where gas masks are distributed.   It seems that the best defense is not the best offense.  My suggestion is to evacuate the residents of Jabel Mukaber and then raze it to the ground. As long as the Palestinians population supports these types of attacks, then simple house demolitions will never be enough.

Barry Lynn