Weather It Is (Severe Storm)

Good Evening:

Today heralds the arrival of our first winter storm.  True, temperatures are more like fall than winter, but the winds, precipitation amounts, and length of the storm are more similar to winter storms of past years than to brief, but heavy rains of fall.

The heaviest rain and severe thunderstorms last night were south of Cyprus and west of Haifa, but today they were over northern Israel and along the Jordan Valley north and south of the Dead sea (see our "PulseRad" lightning map from this Thursday afternoon).

Tonight a strong cold front will move southward as the storm center moves into Lebanon and Syria.  The GFS (Global Forecast Model) is predicting rain over southern areas, but our high resolution ensemble predicts heavy rain stretching southwest near Gaza northeast through Jerusalem to just south of Lake Kinneret. The heaviest rain should fall late night into Friday morning, with showers and periods of rain over the center and southern areas on Friday. Rain should also occur over the far north.

The forecast is also showing not just rain, but lightning as well.  With the storms should come strong winds between 50 and 75 km, with higher values along the northwest coast.

The next week will see a return to more fall-like weather.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Is There Rain On The Horizon?)

Good Afternoon:

The weather the past few days has been simply gorgeous.  The temperatures have been cool during the night and warm during the day, and there are even some clouds to make us think of winter.

The weather maps suggest that the cool weather should continue through the end of this week, but then there should be a turn towards more fall-like (what we now associate only with winter) weather.

Ahead of next week's storm, temperatures should warm into the upper 20s and maybe even the low 30s, but the mid-week period should see an increase in moisture from the west, as cool air sags southward into the eastern Mediterranean.

The latest forecast shows that the heavier precipitation with this upcoming storm will most likely stay to our north, but the Global Ensemble Forecasts System still shows the chance of rain in our area. If the system does move further south, we're likely to see our first significant rains.

The latest word from the Israel Water Authority, via Dr. Amir Givati (Head of Surface Water Management) is that all seasonal models are predicting above normal precipitation amounts for this coming winter.  The CFS-V2 is predicting normal surface temperatures, so we (or at least some of us) can hope that this winter will see snow return to Jerusalem during one of these precipitation events.

I really wish that I had the respect and admiration that will surely come Dr. Givati's way when the skies open up, and even a few folks head out to build their version of "Noach' Ark."

You see, while I've been a weather forecaster since sixth grade (I was angry after another missed snow-storm -- this was before the more "modern" era of weather forecasting), I've never really had much respect for it. My wife takes a jacket when I say it will be sunny, and she leaves it at home if I say it will rain. The kids never know what to wear, and if I tell them they come home grumpy (usually, they've dressed too warmly).

Perhaps realizing what the future would bring, I figured I better have a useful skill -- which is the reason I learned how to cook.  I also thought that it would help me in the dating department.  When at a loss of words, you can always say: "I can cook."  I found it a great conversation starter, and was always amazed at the look of amazement on the faces of whomever I happened to be meeting that night.  True, I never saw that person again, but at least we ended on what seemed like a high note.

Strangely, my wife seemed to appreciate both my ability to cook and the actualization of it. But, that was before we were married.

The other day I pointed out that my daughter had left the mixer on the counter.  True, her puff cakes were delicious, but the mixer still remained.  Rather than getting a word of understanding my wife pointed out that she preferred the mixer on the counter than I in the kitchen.

You'd think, though, that there are at least some other things a husband can do to make his wife happy, or at least help out.  After a summer of hard work (I in front of the computer, and she at the supermarket), my wife announced that she was on strike -- no more supermarket shopping for her. Here was my chance: I took off to the local supermarket (even without a list) and proudly announced that my wife was on strike and that I would be the primary shopper from now on.

What a fool I was: within a few weeks she was back at the supermarket.  She says that she just needed a few things, but a few things were really many things.  I'm so embarrassed -- isn't there anything a husband can do to gain a bit of appreciation?

Yes -- and my chance happened last night.  The phone rang in the situation room (downstairs).  It was my wife and she was hysterical.  When I arrived at the room her head was covered with dolls, pillows, and blankets.  All I could see was her nose.   Of course, so could the mosquito, which seemed to fly both in and out as I watched in horror.  "Help me," she said: "it's giant."

I told her to remain calm, relaxed, and hopeful -- she would be the prey, while I would hunt the hunter.  After an hour of a dive-bombing mosquito, and squeals of I don't know what, I and my high-powered flashlight found the mosquito hiding in the recess of our skylight.  With a whack that was the end of (the rather large) mosquito.

You should have seen the smile she had for me this morning: forget the cooking and shopping, I'm teaching my son how to kill mosquitos.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Fall Has Arrived)

Good Afternoon:

The weather during the holidays was hot. Interestingly, towards the end of the hot spell we had 2 days of temperatures in the mid-30s, but with very low humidity, which were followed by temperatures in the low 30s, but with extremely high humidity. Here in the mountains of Jerusalem, it felt like we were living in Tel-Aviv.  One wonders what Tel-Avivians felt like.

Since then, winds have turned around and have been blowing predominately from the northwest and temperatures have consistently been more fall like than anything else. In fact, there are even periods of clouds to make one think that winter is around the corner.

The weather maps show streaks of moisture moving around low pressure over the Mediterranean. The situation should remain static for the next few days,  but then cooler air moving southward will intensify this low pressure as we move into Shabbat and early next week. This means the possibility of rain showers, most likely over northern areas.

In the meantime, temperatures will remain fall-like, with temperatures in the mid-20s in many locations.

With another two persons murdered at the Barkan Industrial site, one wonders when this might all end?  My mother in law mentioned that it's been the same for the last 70 years with no let up of the terrorism, and no change in the goals of our enemies (to destroy the State of Israel). In fact, there are even groups whose entire efforts are dedicated to preventing any type of coexistence between Palestinians and Israelis.  It's obvious that Hamas in Gaza is still dedicated to our destruction, even at the expense of the residents of Gaza.  The government in Ramallah --  in contrast -- tries to maintain a modicum of normalcy, but it supports and encourages terrorism among its citizens through education, religious indoctrination, and media.

The media in general likes to blame our Prime Minister for the dire prospects for peace. One wonders if their memory is only as long as yesterday's news.  For instance, in 1993, the Oslo accords were signed.  Yet, a few days later "President" Arafat told his audience that this was just a stage, a temporary detour on the way to our destruction.

There are those who also blame the failure of the peace process on the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin.  However, they forget that there were a number of bombings during his tenure and that of Prime Minister Peres.  Moreover, Prime Minister Netanyahu reached two agreements to withdraw from various "Palestinian" cities.

Even more, when the public decided that the peace process was going to slowly, they elected Prime Minister Barak.  Under the auspices of President Clinton, Mr. Barak offered President Arafat a very good deal. Instead of accepting the deal, Mr. Arafat launched a war that left 1000s dead.  Then, in 2008, Prime Minister Olmert offered President Abbas the "Deal of the Century," but Mr. Abbas never responded.

When Mr. Netanyahu returned to head the government, he also enforced a year long building freeze -- Mr. Abbas never accepted a meeting to talk peace.

So, the blame is clearly on the Palestinian leadership.  They have no interest in any deal that leaves two states for two peoples.

Given the continued incitement in Palestinian media and continued payments to terrorists for murder, I admire Prime Minister Netanyahu's for carefully fending off pressure from international bodies to give more land and/or control to the Palestinian Authority while doing his best to thwart the plans of terrorists.

Considering that many more people are killed on the roads (and Pedestrians, too), we should be thankful for our continued success and strive to end our own self-inflicted woes.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (On Ari Fuld)

Today the People of Israel – let alone our town – lost someone very special. Ari Fuld “a hero,” “larger than life,” and “a champion for Israel” (1).  Our defense minister promised an iron fist (2), but no iron fist can beat back the tide of EU NGO’s pushing for a boycott of Israel, as well the end of the Jewish renaissance.  No, that Iron Fist will have to come from those who are simply like Ari – making a tireless case for the State of Israel, its beauty and its people.

Yet, in the end words fail us – they can never capture what really was, and what were our hopes for the future.

Yet, perhaps we can take solace in our children – who may someday grow up to be like Ari.  My wife, Rachel, asked me to write down what she felt and what she experienced today at school when the bad news fell like a heavy tree upon us all.

It was the time for me that I had to return to my class of 7^th graders. I had to tell the kids what happened outside Rami Levy (of Gush Etzion) that morning.  I felt like I was choking – that I could not speak the words I needed to speak.  When I told them what happened, they each had their own reaction: some lowering their heads, while others grasping their ears and rocking back and forth – all  in anguish. 

I found myself in a class where most of the kids were crying.  The tears dripped onto their clothes, while others flowed onto the table.  Some tried to hide the tears, but they could not hide their anguish.

The only empty chair was the chair of Natan – a child whose smile (in better or even difficult times) fills the room.  The chair was not wet, and the chair didn’t rock, but the chair looked lonely and anguished.

I looked at their eyes – blue eyes tearing, brown eyes tearing, black eyes tearing, all shining, failing to reflect the sun streaming into the room.  Soon, I found myself looking at them through a veil of my own tears – tears of mine own anguish.

We read Tehillim (the Jewish book of Psalms) together. In Tehillim, we asked: “How long will the wicked exult (3)?”  I had no answer. I looked at their tears and had no answers.  But, then I began to think that if only we could collect all the tears and send them up to heaven, then perhaps, some day, “those who tearfully sow will reap in glad song (4)”.

(1) https://www.timesofisrael.com/terror-victim-ari-fuld-mourned-as-larger-than-life-hero-champion-for-israel/

(2) https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-deadly-stabbing-liberman-vows-to-fight-terror-with-iron-hand/

(3) https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-praises-deadly-west-bank-stabbing-attack/

(4)  Tehillim Ztzadec-Daled; 94.

(5) Tehillim Kuf-Bet-Vav, 126.

Weather It Is (Cool Weather, Then Hotter For Yom Kippur)

Good Evening:

While not everyone gave voice to their thoughts about the weather today, I can imagine that most enjoyed the perfect weather, regardless.  Temperatures were in the 20s (Celsius) in many areas, and there was a light wind to cool off those who spent too much time in the sun.

The cool weather will continue until Tuesday, when low pressure should develop to our southwest over the Sinai desert.  This low pressure area will bring warmer, if not hot, temperatures for the "holiday" of Yom Kippur. Unfortunately, humidities will be above 50%, making it feel hotter than usual. There will also be a small chance for some tropical showers.

Cooler, but not cool weather should winds its way our way for Shabbat and the start of the Sukkot holiday.

Speaking of the holiday, I believe that my past studies qualify me to offer a modified Challah recipe that's gone over well with the family. I am speaking about my courses in both inorganic and organic chemistry.  In my classes, I was very good at adding "NaCL" (salt) to various other chemicals like "NaHCO3" (baking soda), as well as mixing up C6H12O6  (one of the simple sugars in wheat) and C18H36O2 (Stearic Acid; one of the ingredients in Canola Oil).  The point is I have a "license" to modify recipes so I decided to do just that (as the kids were not so happy with recipe I used on-line here: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/24419/bread-machine-challah-ii).  So, here is the modified recipe.

1) 1 Cup room temperature water
2) 1/2 Cup Sugar
3) 1 Tb Honey
4) 1/4 cup vegetable oil (like Canola)
5) 2 1/4 tsp salt
6) 2 eggs (room temperature is best)
7) 2 cups white flour; 1 cup whole wheat flour, and 1 cup Spelt flour
8) 1 Tb instant yeast
9) 1/4 cup gluten

If you're making this in a bread machine, then just add in the order listed (set on the dough setting!). If you want to do it yourself, add the yeast to the water/sugar mixture and let it sit for a few minutes before adding 1 cup of the flour and mixing well -- then continue from there).  It's also best to knead this twice, with a small break in between to let the dough rise a bit (1/2 of its size, perhaps). If you want to add 3/4 cup of raisins, add them before the second kneading.

Before cooking, mix 1 egg, 1 Tb water, and 1 Tb Honey, and brush over the Challah (or Challot).

One good thing to know: it's much easier to braid Challah if you lengthen the previously rounded dough and then cut it into 3 strips lengthwise as well.  In otherwords, don't cut across the dough, cut parallel to it (or yourself). For two Challahs, cut this in half (across) before cutting lengthwise (or 2/3 and 1/3 sizes depending on what you want).

For the holiday, you can roll each strip into a circle.  

Bake at 180 C for 32 minutes, turning the oven on when you set the timer.  Here's a picture of our Challah loaves.  You can see I made an extra roll in order to have two Challahs left over for Shabbat morning.  Enjoy and Happy Holidays.  Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Hot)

Good Evening:

The weather is hot enough to turn on the air conditioning and to stay out of the sun.

After a relatively cool August,  the heat arrived as a heat low to our southeast built northwestward into our area.  The heat should last into late week before temperatures trend downwards into Shabbat (Saturday).

By that time a trough (or low pressure) in the middle atmosphere should move in from the northwest., and the low to our east should be replaced by a weak ridge of higher pressure. The winds between that low and the higher pressure will bring moisture into northern central and northern Israel, where there will be the possibility of tropical showers (and even some lightning). Fall may be off to an early start (and the rumor has it that the seasonal forecast models are predicting above normal rainfall amounts, a big difference from the years of predicting drought).

As the trough continues eastward and passes through our area the temperatures should cool from the low 30s into the upper 20s -- considerably cooler than today (Sunday).

That's good because I don't want to hear any complaints about the weather.

It wasn't a complaint, but an odd thing happened to my wife.  She was worried that her nighttime slumbers were being interrupted by a bit of snoring. I said I didn't think so, but she insisted on heading off to the doctor.  She told the doctor her worries, so he asked her if this were indeed true.  She told him that she was sleeping so that she couldn't verify the situation either way.  He thought this strange, and didn't really know how to proceed.  This made for a bit of a laugh but then she added that she was sure that the doctor found it even stranger that she hadn't come to "complain" that her husband was snoring and being -- generally -- a bother.

Afterwards, what struck me about her comment was an implied expectation that husbands or simply a bother to have around.

But, I must digress.

You may not believe this, but it's been verified through an unscientific poll.  What's the first place a wife takes her husband after the marriage and the excitement of the first weeks of marriage have passed?  She takes him to have his hearing checked.  Some men will say amongst themselves that they've lost their hearing because of their wives, but at the time of the appointment they're invariably told that their husband hears just fine.  The wife goes home muttering, and the husband goes home happy that his hearing is indeed fine.

Except it isn't.

The problem isn't hearing, the problem is listening. She goes home wondering how her husband is ever going to be useful if he doesn't hear her (instructions -- on how to be so).

You see, men marry because in their eyes they've found a beautiful "girl," or a smart girl, or a smart and beautiful girl, or a funny, smart, beautiful girl; regardless of the reason they've found the one.

Women marry, instead, because they have high hopes that their husband might be useful to have around.  True, there's a bit of starry eyed bliss, but deep down it comes down to what is called "Tachluss" (or purpose).

But what does she get: someone whose hearing is going and they've only been married a few months. Then she's faced with a dilemma: she has to weigh just how much her husband is useful versus how much he's a bother, and if he doesn't come out on the plus side there's going to be trouble.

Trouble usually comes, but if a husband is truly committed to honoring his wife (and marriage) he can follow some simple advice.   If you miss it the first time, try to get it right the second time, and don't justify why you got it wrong the first time. It won't help because wives live in the here and now, and don't want to hear (rational) excuses why husbands don't live up to expectations.  If you do this, you can move back to the plus side and your wife might actually tell her mother that she made the right choice.

Religious men sing to their wives every Friday evening: "An accomplished woman who can find? Far beyond pearls is her value."  A little listening on the part of a husband can go along way to deserving such a wife.

Shana Tova!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Summer Continues)

Good Afternoon:

I'm sitting near the window watching a light blue sky -- there are no clouds floating by.

It's that kind of weather -- actually, everyone here says it's been a relatively cool summer. But, since we had a relatively warm winter, there were no cherries and one could sit a long time under the apple tree without fear of injury (unlike last year, which was great for apples and cherries).

In contrast, Dr. Jame Hansen (formally head of NASA GISS), claims that regional climate change is appearing above the "noise" of climate-variability (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009).  You can see just how warm it's been worldwide by checking out this link (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2018.pdf). Interestingly, the maps show our area as being 1 -- 2 Celcius above the "norm" (defined as the mean temperatures between 1951 -- 1980).

I write interestingly because the guys who know (e.g, those who put in air conditioning system) say it ain't so, and they are not the only ones. I believe that the Israel Meteorological Service keeps track of temperatures compared to normal means, but I'll have to leave this double-check for a later time.

In any case, there is not much change forecast for our weather during the next week to 10 days.  One can see that it is still anomalously warm over Europe (follow the links here to 500 mb height anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/).  This affects us in an unusual way: storms are forced north of Europe, which then swing back down over Siberia. The resulting flow pattern sets up a high pressure area with westerly winds in the eastern Mediterranean or even pushes back a trough into our area -- keeping temperatures blowing refreshingly off the sea (rather then the desert to our east).

The mercury seems to be rising world-wide but the added energy from higher Carbon Dioxide gases has led to regional changes that include snowier east-coast winters (and now a humid and very rainy summer), but longer fire-seasons and extremely hot weather in the western US.  There is even a drought in Sweden, which is very unusual.  In England, a drought has withered the country side (but there is still plenty of water to drink: https://www.ft.com/content/a0dd8ba6-8044-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475). 

Some will claim that this is just "weather." They're right, but it may not be the weather they grew up with.

Barry Lynn