Weather It Is (No Impact)

  Good Evening:

One more of hot weather, but next month should bring a change.  In fact, we see temperatures cooling down both near the surface, through the middle atmosphere, and even upper atmosphere (500 mb). 

Winds will switch from a southwesterly, westerly direction to a more westerly northwesterly direction,  and even clouds and a few showers could dot the sky.

Summer may not be over, but fall is making an appearance.

This article summarizes the current knowledge regarding the Coronavirus vaccine and human reproduction.  The vaccine is not found to affect reproduction in men and women, but the virus itself can be very dangerous. 

https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=b5d3d3cbff&e=ceedde1aae

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Transitions)

Good Afternoon:

The weather this summer has been hot, the weather has been cool, and sometimes in between. It even rained in spots one day.  All this happened while I was on "vacation."  Really, I was on a vacation from writing my blog. Hence, I am not to blame for what has transpired.

The next two weeks look to be a bit of a transition.  It's going to stay on the hot side, of course -- it's still summer.  However, temperatures at 500 mb will be falling off a bit, while humidities rise. This should lead to some high cloudiness.

As for heavy rains during Sukkot, as reported in the news.  The CFS V2 does not show any indication of enhanced rain amounts in the next few months.  In fact, it's remarkable for the fact that it shows normal conditions.  This means, generally, a chance of showers during Sukkot, but nothing unusual. Moreover the APEC Climate Center website shows below normal precipitation.  This based on multiple model simulations.

Actually, though, I have much greater confidence in forecasts for the next couple of weeks.  You can see these on our web site, or more generally here.

It's good to be back home, but I am actually in quarantine, even though I tested negative for the Coronavirus before and after my return.   The reason: my wife needed a vacation so she sent me to visit my parents in the USA.  During this time, the Israeli government decided that people arriving from the US could bring dangerous Coronavirus variants to Israel -- so they sent us all into quarantine. Yet, I came from a state with 20 persons per 100,000 sick last week, while Israel has 60 persons per 100,000.  It seems to me that my fellow Israeli citizens should have gone into quarantine when I returned, and not vice-versa. 

Being in quarantine, but without any symptoms, presents some dilemmas.  For instance, while I was away, my wife took the garbage.  While I can't say that I take the garbage all the time, I do try to contribute whenever I can (meaning, the garbage needs to go out). Since I haven't tested positive, I thought that maybe I could sneak out, quickly drop the garbage in the bin, and then run back to the house. 

However, we soon realized that this would be dangerous at best, if not foolish.  Where do you think the police wait to catch quarantine breakers?  They wait at the garbage, of course -- waiting to catch the husband taking out the garbage types who should be in quarantine.

During the last few months, I've had multiple exchanges with various people who have contrary beliefs about the Coronavirus and vaccines. Here, you'll find out some not so "useful" information -- information that contains -- sometimes a grain of truth but really leads the viewer to false and misleading conclusions.  The first gem is that the Coronavirus is simply a run of the mill cold virus (time: 3:04).  The next is that a high percentage don't get this virus, have some pre-immunity (4:05),  those who died would have died anyway (4:45), exercise prevents (cures) all (4:58), topped off by it and its variants are fading away (5:16)!  Later on this doctor recommends against pregnant women getting vaccinated.

Does this doctor have any credibility, even with the white coat?  Two months ago, Israel had 200 active cases; this month there are 50,000!  His cited "pre-immunity" doesn't seem to help very much in preventing recent infections.  The Israel Health Ministry reported that there are 151.5 out of 100,000 people in serious condition of those unvaccinated, 45 per 100,000 people who received one shot, and just 19.3 out of 100,000 people who have received both shots.  As to the idea that those people would have died anyway, estimates of excess worldwide deaths are as high as 5 million plus (with the US making up about 10% of this numbers; Israel about 5000).  Just today, our Prime Minister reported that of the 179 people who recently died, 178 were unvaccinated.  Those who choose not to vaccinate are simply asking to become seriously ill (or die).

Rather than being vaccinated, some people say they prefer to treat this illness using a combination of Zinc, HCQ (a malaria drug), and Azithromycin.  The first two medicines are supposed to reduce the viral load in the body -- aiding recovery, while the third acts against accompanying infections.  However, not all studies are positive.  Moreover, someone taking this medicine means that the person caught the virus,  possibly endangers someone else, who either does not have access to these medicines and/or is in a higher risk group. In the meantime, further study is needed.  The efficacy of vaccines, though, is not in doubt. 

 

Weather It Is (Chilly)

 Good Evening:

Good Evening:

It certainly is a tad chilly outside.  This morning the low was 13 C (here in Efrat).  

The cold weather is in response to a trough of low pressure centered north of Turkey. The trough will remain stationary and even build back in a bit as we move into next week.

The long range forecast shows a slight warming trend late next week, but summer seems to be far off.

Here's a link for a published blog.

 https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/truth-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder/

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (One More Cold Spell)

 Good Afternoon:

An unusually cold weather system will move into our area over the next couple of days.  Yet,while cold, moisture with this weather system is somewhat limited, so we should expect just a period of light rain on Shabbat with the passing low.

The low pressure trough will move slowly away as the days pass into mid-week,  Winds become more southwesterly and some upper level moisture may even trigger some thundershowers.

The temperatures look to be on an upswing until next Shabbat.  After that, no real cold weather is in sight, but the global forecast remains uncertain: temperatures just may continue into more summerlike temperatures, or revert back to a more mild spring.  

The mild spring like temperatures are the ones where people stop me to tell me what a good job I am doing this spring with the weather: a strong sun, with temperatures warm enough to be comfortable, but not warm enough to break a sweat.  

It's been a while since I last wrote a blog.  True, the weather didn't stop, but I've been unusually busy.  I had to spend a couple weeks in the US helping out at the old homestead, and then Passover arrived.  Quite frankly, we had a terrible time identifying and finding all the unleavened products in our home ("Chametz"), and eventually gave up and just sold the house for the holiday. Fortunately, the contract was cancelled shortly after the holiday ended, and we were able to once again inhabit the premises. 

In our world of constant news, constant opinion, and even constant opinion pretending to be news, it can be difficult to know the difference between truth and falsehood.

During the last year, there's been both intentional and unintentional statements that turned out to be false.

1) The Coronavirus first wave will pass -- like all waves -- and that will be its end.  It wasn't (there are at least 4 distinct waves). 

2) The Coronavirus will end this (last summer).  It didn't.

3) By late September, the Coronavirus will be a past memory.  It is still quite in our memory.

4) Since flu vaccinations do not protect more than 50% of the population that receives them, the Coronavirus will not be any better.  The efficacy rate for the Coronavirus vaccine is above 90%.

5) The virus can mutate to protect itself from the vaccine.  In fact, the virus can mutate, but only incidentally -- and such mutations might render the vaccine less effective.  More importantly, ff a person was vaccinated, the virus was killed by the immune system, it is very unlikely to spread a dangerous mutation.

6) Young and healthy people are not affected by the Coronavirus.  In fact, while younger people are much less likely to die from the disease, a noticeable proportion have continuing long term symptoms. 

7) Women  of childbearing years should not get the vaccine.  Except that new coronavirus variants were especially dangerous, if not deadly to pregnant women.

8) Taking Zinc and other "antiviral" medicines will stave off the Coronavirus.  While "strengthening" the immune system through exercise, diet, etc, is a good idea, the novelty of the coronavirus means that the immune system is not prepared to fight the virus until (in too many) it has the upperhand and causes serious illness. 

On another subject. 

1) The unusually cold and snowy February in the United States means that global warming is a falsehood.  In fact, cold air intrusions far south of the poles appear to have become more frequent as the world warms, and the arctic warms even more.  The added energy to the arctic circulation has destabilized the polar vortex, making periods of unusually cold weather not a thing of the past. On average, though, the world is warmer than it was.

8) The Texas blackouts were caused by the use of renewable energy sources.  In fact, the main cause of the Texas blackouts was poor infrastructure maintenance and the fact that Texas is no longer part of the National grid. Renewables, actually, make up only a small part of the power supply in Texas.

9) The United States should re-enter the Iran nuclear deal says a 100 or so ex Israeli generals, security officials.  But what if 20 times that say we shouldn't?  They do.

So, where do these false or even silly ideas come from?  They usually come people who have a more radical political agenda or strong belief that they are being lied to for ulterior and nefarious motives.  There are also people who seek publicity and followers simply by being contrary.  

On the other hand, there is a lack of trust in news sources, which creates fertile ground for the conspiracists.  To limit the future damaging impact of conspiracists, newspaper and other news sources need to stop substituting opinion for news, and edit out those opinions based on made up facts.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Three Flour Challah)

Good Morning:

My wife and I share the kitchen.

When we moved to our new home,  my wife was very insistent that we have both a meat and dairy sink.  How else were we to be sure to follow the Torah commandment not to mix milk and meat.  In fact, she even designed an L-shaped kitchen such that the sinks are not even part of the same countertop.

Yet, it soon became very clear to me that the real purpose of the separation was to make sure that the two of us would never meet at the same (kitchen) place, and it turns out even at the same time (I'm the morning cooker, and she is the afternoon cooker, when it comes to preparing for Shabbat).

This is hard for me to accept, but I see the same behavior from our daughters, too.  So, I must take full responsibility for this aversion to my presence in the kitchen. Apparently,  nothing is more "annoying" than having to share the kitchen with me, or if you prefer: "what are you doing here, now?"

Yet, I have to say,  I just may not deserve such opprobrium.  Okay, maybe I do, but as in life, it's sometimes better to focus on where you going rather than the mess along the way.

With the advice of a friend, I've been trying to perfect my Shabbat Challah recipe.  In fact, chemistry was one of my favorite subjects.  How much water to titrate (add) into the solid (flours) to turn it into a liquid (pliable dough)?  How much sucrose or sugar to sweeten it?

The "problem" is that much is a matter of taste, rather than how many moles (or Tablespoons) of oil one adds so that the bread is moist, but not too moist to work with.

To arrive at my perfect Challah has taken years of finessing, and much feedback from the philosopher-scientist among the kids. By perfect here, I mean more perfect than before, which as you know is a very precise definition of perfection.  I even had a little help from my friend. But, it was my wife who pointed out that it's honey that can give bread a dry texture, which runs counter to the advice I found on the internet. So, I have now left it out of this later challah iteration.

The other problem in baking Challah is size.  Challah is best eaten fresh, and how many times does one want to make "French-Toast" with its leftovers.  Hence, the recipe I provide below is for a family that likes Challah for Friday night dinner, and individual portions or rolls for Shabbat day.

It's a recipe for three-flour Challah, white, whole wheat, and spelt. I add the ingredients to the bread machine (dough cycle) in the order listed.

3/4 cups water

2 eggs

3 Tb of olive oil

1 1/2 Tb of salt

1/8 to 1/4 cup sugar

1 Cup white flour

1 Cup Spelt flour

1 Cup Whole Wheat Flour

1/8 to 1/4 cup Gluten (to add texture)

2 tsp of active dry yeast

After the initial mixing, make sure the dough is pliable, but not sticky.  If it is sticky, add a bit more flour (or  if lumpy, vice versa). After the dough rises, divide into about equal halves.  One half will make around five Challah rolls, which are simply twisted into shape.  Otherwise, cut the other half lengthwise into three strands, and then braid them into a Challah.

Brush with a beaten egg, and let rise at 45 Celsius until about double in size (around 1/2 an hour).  Brush again, and then sprinkle with sesame and/or poppy seeds. Bake at 180 Celsius.  I just turn the oven on with the aspiring Challahs inside and set the timer for 29 minutes.  Despite my attention to moles and proper titration, this seems to work just fine.  The Challahs should be nicely brown on the outside, but not hard.

For those without a bread maker, add the yeast directly to the liquid, and then add 1 cup of flour to blend the rest of the ingredients together (but not the gluten).  You can then add the gluten and rest of the flour and knead the dough for about five minutes.  After enough kneading, the dough should be pliable and springy, so I've read.  Let the dough rise in a warm place or oven, until about double the size.  Then proceed to divide, brush with egg, let rise again, and bake as mentioned above.

I have attached a video of last week's snowstorm, blizzard. To cook up that storm to perfection was an involved process, really the culmination of years of work. This is a credit to the developers of weather forecast technology, including a greater ability to assimilate (add) observations to the forecast models, and further improvements in the ability to simulate the finer scale cloud processes that brought our snow.

In fact, I remember experiments from the 1980s (referred to as "GALE")  to measure and better understand the finer scale physical processes that lead to the genesis and intensification of east coast US storms,  These experiments helped enable the development of improved weather forecasting technology, and started the process towards improved wintertime forecasts. In fact, I remember that the winter of 1992-93 was the first time forecasters in the New York Metropolitan area were able to predict the day to day arrival of winter storms.  Here and in our time, we make use of forecasts made by the National Center for Environmental Prediction covering the globe and combine them with our very high resolution forecast, but limited area models to predict our wintertime storms.

The video was taken in Efrat by a colleague from our Israel Winter Weather group (now four people).  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJpOO5-6Mp4&ab_channel=jconsor) We finally had more to do than talk about snow, but actually measure it.  It actually happened, and happened as forecast.  Interestingly, the snow forecast amounts were quite sensitive to elevation, even in Gush Etzion, where about 25 cm occurred in Efrat, but 30 to 40 cm was estimated in Alon Shavut, for example,  which is higher than Efrat. Moreover, the snow in Alon Shavut was more powdery than the snow in Efrat (my kids really enjoyed throwing snowballs at me, but it wasn't so easy to throw snowballs at Dads in Alon Shavut).

The next period of stormy weather should occur mid next week, when the weather should turn chillier and rainier again.

Barry Lynn 

Weather It Is (Strong Thunderstorms)

 Good Morning:

1) Possibility of strong thunderstorms, mostly across southern areas this morning, possibly moving into central areas this afternoon.

A very strong upper level low is moving across the Sinai today and will transition across southern Israel this afternoon and evening.  The strong temperature gradient between the surface and upper atmosphere, combined with dust, creates the possibility of strong thunderstorms.  These storms can produce flooding rains and hail.

Unlike the first part of February, the atmospheric pattern is set up for a period of cool weather with periodic episodes of precipitation into the first week of March.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Blizzard Warning)

 Good Morning:

A blizzard warning for Jerusalem and surrounding areas for this afternoon and evening.

The latest forecasts have shifted the center of cold air tens of kilometers southward from the forecast of yesterday morning.  This returns us closer to our original forecast of heavy snow for the Jerusalem area as well as the surrounding locations. The difference is only a small fraction of the amplitude of the atmospheric winter wave, but has very important implications for our weather.

Low pressure moving southeastward across Cyprus will reach our area this afternoon. Already, snow flurries are falling in the Jerusalem area as temperatures are near freezing.

As the coldest air moves in, winds will increase to 50 to 60 km/h, with higher gusts.  Heavy snow and wind should combine to create blizzard conditions across the central mountain areas, including Jerusalem as the afternoon moves on to evening.

The snow should start this afternoon and accumulate on colder surfaces. Late this afternoon and night, the snow should accumulate generally 5 to 10 cm in the Jerusalem area, with between 10 and  20 cm in higher elevation areas of the city boundaries.  In the area of the Shomron 15 to 20 cm,  while in Gush Etzion 30 to 40 cm.  Northern areas, such as Meron and Sefad should receive between 5 and 20 cm, depending on elevation.

The storm will abate on Thursday morning, but it should remain cold and wet (with rain, rather than snow, to follow on Friday/Shabbat.

Be well,

Barry Lynn