Weather It Is (Where will it snow?)

We're looking at the sounding data for Jerusalem, and we see that early tomorrow morning the temperatures at 900 mb will drop just below freezing. However, the surface temperatures are still suppose to be above freezing.  This implies that any snow that any (moderate) snow that falls will create at most a slushy accumulation.  After a mid-day warm-up, the potential for snow returns in the evening.  However, we should mention that there is still some uncertainty in tomorrow morning's forecast. In fact, the GFS ensemble has a range of almost four degrees, with most clustered around -27.5 C at 500 mb.  A little "Mazol" might bring the white stuff to Jerusalem.

In contrast, in Gush Etzion, the forecast temperatures are suppose to be at and below breezing during a period of first moderate and then heavy snow.  This should lead to a quick accumulation of snow on the ground and roads.  There to there should be a bit of a warm-up towards mid-day, but colder air again comes in aloft towards late afternoon.  This coupled with additional cooling aloft will raise the chances of snow again.

A warming trend begins on Sunday.

Barry Lynn