Weather It Is (Winter and Snow-More)

Good Afternoon:

It's been quite stormy over the northern part of the country, including the coast from Netanya northward.  The rain has retreated a bit to the north, but the storm should move southward tonight and bring a dose of rain to a good part of the country. The rain should end during the day on Shabbat.

This storm will pass, and then the coldest air of the season will arrive on Tuesday, with strong rain, wind, and even snow on the Hermon.  There is a strong consensus in the ensemble forecast for this event to occur, so our Chanukah holiday will get off to a very wet start.

Temperatures should moderate after the next storm, but there will be periods of wet weather to follow (but some periods of wet weather implies times of dry, even "nice" weather).

After the political storm of last week, which I thought was poorly handled by our government, at least for the fact that we seemed to say yes, and then no (we're only planning to build) to the area of E1, I am  perplexed. This wishy washiness was very disturbing to me, and for this reason (and for the seemingly lack of resolution to the Gaza-Hamas problem), I am really not sure who to vote for.

As you are aware, there are no guarantees when it comes to our weather forecasts, although we do our very best to produce the best forecasts based on high-resolution models and an examination of global ensemble forecasts.  We also give our forecasts some personal time, in order to try to bring together various streams of information. On the other hand, when it comes to politics or political (life and death) decisions, it seems that there are those who are all too ready to act with certainty or encourage us to do so.

For instance, we're told that we (Israel) should put our trust in the International Community to look after our welfare, if God forbid, their advice were to lead us to distress (or worse). Yet, I can confidently say (even without a computer model) that this is not a wise course of action.

Several days ago, the Jerusalem Post reported that PM Netanyahu requested permission from neighbouring countries to attack Syrian chemical sites before these deadly ingredients were mixed to form their deadly toxin.  This was refused.

At the same time, President Obama warned the Assad government that there would be grave consequences if it would deploy these chemical weapons (of mass destruction).

Now, the ingredients are mixed and the bombs are ready to go, and any action -- if it comes -- will be too late for the Syrian people.

On our side, the Hamas Palestinian military wing prepares for the next round of fighting, importing even larger missiles than before.  The West Bank Palestinian political wing (headed by Abbas) continues its diplomatic warfare against us. 

The world political bodies tell us to make peace with the Palestinians, to give them an independent state both in Gaza and the West Bank -- a state that then would be able to import (sneak in) missiles both to Gaza and the West Bank (even if there is a disarmament agreement). We're also told that the international community will provide us with security guarantees.  I suppose that they'll even offer to protect or assure us that any Palestinian towns to be built on the road to Maale Adumin will never be a threat (unlike our not to distant past).

This is the same international community that failed to present past genocides (including our own during the Holocaust) and stands by while another one is about to happen.  Grave consequences -- when they happen -- usually happen to the victims.  

I realise that it is not an ideal situation for the West Bank Palestinians, but life isn't about being fair, but rather it is a a choice of survival.  We, as the Israeli people, should choose not to be victims again-- say no to a state of Palestine in the West Bank!

Barry Lynn