Weather It Is (The Little Storm That Couldn't; A Global Warming World)

The drought continues to deepen -- it really hasn't rained a substantial amount in 6 weeks. 

When we look at the GFS 10 day forecast or the GFS ensemble forecast, we see the possibility of rain.  However, there are always several members or more of this ensemble that indicate that the storm will either weaken or pass by to our north, and by the time the storm should have arrived, all the ensemble members agree that the storm will -- for the most part -- miss us again.

In fact,  this Friday evening and Shabbat one of these storms will impact our area, but the impact will be just a glancing blow.  One interesting fact is that there is still plenty of cold air in Europe, and the storm track is still fairly active. It looks, though, like it has retreated a bit to the north, and the retreat to the north has been (for our sake), about a month too early in the winter season. 

One predicted consequence of global warming is that storms will be less frequent, come later in the season, and depart earlier.  There is also an indication that storms -- when they do occur -- will be more ferocious -- heavier rain and wind.  This winter is -- quite possibly -- a glimpse into a world impacted by global warming.

As for Pesach, the active Jet stream will continue, but there will also be at least a few days of warmer weather before the next possible storm late next week.

Shabbat Shalom; have a good Pessach,

Barry Lynn