Weather It Is (Spring Rain)

Good Evening:

A storm is on the way, but the amount of rain predicted with this storm (late Tuesday into Thursday morning) is more typical of spring than winter.  True, temperatures will cool down, but shortly after the storm departs, we'll be headed back up to warmer temperatures.

I've been writing about how our strange weather might be attributed to changes in CO2 gas concentration.  It has been pointed out that the CO2 gas concentrations have increased by about 10% in the last 15 years, but the world's surface temperatures have remained pretty much unchanged during this time. Hence, one might conclude that there is no direct relationship between changes in CO2 gas concentrations and surface temperatures.   In fact, from the point of those living in the eastern US, we've had global cooling.

However, December temperatures (worldwide ocean and land) were third highest since records began in 1880.  The mean temperatures were 0.64 C above average, while a relatively warm western US almost balanced out the colder eastern US.

An acquaintance pointed out to me that we are actually in a period of minimal solar activity, and one might expect warmer temperatures were solar activity to increase.  Yet, he also argued that solar activity (or the tilt of the orbit) are more important factors than any changes in CO2 gas due to the industrial revolution, etc. The global atmospheric models that are used to predict climate impacts of changing CO2 gases unfortunately disagree with him.

Droughts, floods, fire, and (even) big snows have happened from time to time, even without us.  One question to consider is:  how accurate are these models?  The second is:  are we better to adapt and try to beat mother nature (even if we are part of mother nature) -- or should we try to change our behaviour to maintain the current "equilibrium" which may turn out to be less of an equilibrium than we hoped for.

On my part, I'd just like some more winter snow -- it's the reason I became interested in weather forecasting in the first place and I find nothing more relaxing than to just want the snow fall (while wondering just what "they" think of me).

Barry Lynn