Weather It Is (Strong Storms Then Cold)

Good Morning:

Highlights:

1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.

2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.

3) Strong winds.

4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.

Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us.  Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night.  Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat.  Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.

The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week.  Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.

The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.

Barry Lynn