Weather It Is (Severe Thunder Storms Possible)

Good Afternoon:

Highlight: Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Monday Morning.

An unusually strong and hot high pressure system will move to our east Thursday night. Winds will switch to the west,  and temperatures should then start trending downwards on Friday.

However, this is not your typical heat wave that will dissipate to be replaced by more temperate springtime temperatures.

The probability of storms and accompanying heavy rain (strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning) has increased over the last few days, with more recent forecasts bringing the storm further south and west -- an ideal location for us to bring heavy rain.

In fact, unusually cold air should drop southward from the polar jet-stream: temperatures will fall off at all levels of the atmosphere and humidity levels will sharply increase as we move into Sunday.

The warming sea and strong sun should combine to provide plenty of moisture to increase CAPE (convective available potential energy) as Sunday morning moves into Sunday afternoon.   Moreover, the upper level trough is associated with a very strong "vorticity" maximum, which should cause divergence aloft, and upward vertical motion.  Hence, the forecast for strong thunderstorms that should develop on Sunday and last into Monday, affecting a large part of the country from north to south.

The current heat wave has been described as unprecedented  -- mostly in terms of its duration, but May itself was already punctuated by a "winter rain" and our upcoming storm may cement this May in the memories of all.

Barry Lynn