Weather It Is (Moving Into Winter)

Good Evening:

This November has turned rainy, and there have been many downpours in strong thunderstorms.  Do you all remember that October was almost completely dry?  It was also much hotter than normal (https://ims.gov.il/en/node/1683).   In fact, until this October, there were only three similarly dry Octobers, 1948, 1963, and 1992 (https://ims.gov.il/en/node/1679).  Each of these was followed by winters of above average rainfall, if not much above average.  Moreover, now that the election is "behind" us, we can state that each of these (now four) preceded and "predicted" that a Democratic candidate would win the election for President of the United States.  We need to credit the Israel Meteorological Service for this amazing and most pertinent information. 

Moreover, our forecasts are showing at least two storms on the way, one at the end of this week, and then one towards, but preceding the end of next week.  Both look to be able to produce plenty of rain, and the second looks more like a winter storm than a fall storm.  In fact, cold air will be seeping quite a bit southward, and snow may even fall on the Hermon.  

It's hard to know whether when all is said and done next April, whether a lot more will be said than done, or if we'll really be able to say come then that a lot more was done (rainwise) than said forecast. 

Wondering what's real or what will be can be an exercise in frustration.

For instance, the other night I went to bed a tad bit too late and knew that I had to wake up a tad bit too early.  At some point I woke up, noted that the clock was quite a tad too early than a tad too early, and tried to go back to sleep.  But, then I started dreaming that I couldn't fall back asleep and that I would wake up all tired and cranky. Of course, this was a tad disturbing so being disturbed I woke up.  I did this several times, falling asleep, dreaming I couldn't fall a sleep, and then waking up, until finally that tad too early time came.  All I could do was wonder whether I really slept or just dreamed I slept or didn't sleep, depending on the time of the night.

While some dreams are fortunately unreal, there are far too many things in our waking world that at least some of us (many?) wonder if they are real or not.

For instance, I never believed that Acupuncture is a real treatment for ailments.  True, people pay for these treatments and there is evidence that it works, but I never saw this evidence with my own eyes.  However, after having had some needles stuck in my wrist the last few weeks, I can say that my ankle is feeling much better, even much better than it has felt all year.  So, I am beginning to believe that Acupuncture is indeed a real treatment for at least some ailments.

One I am pretty sure about, though, is that the world is a Frisbee.  Anyone who goes to the beach can see that the edge of the world is round like the edge of a Frisbee.  That's probably the reason why I have never sailed much further than a few hundred meters from the beach.  I mean, I have to admit worrying that the fall at the edge of the world might be a tad too much.

Today, someone sent me an article suggesting that the "Science" says to take your mask off (https://wmbriggs.com/post/32326/).  On a simple level, this doesn't make sense.  Masks keep germs in or germs out, and if you take your mask off, neither you or those standing near you will have anything standing in the way of getting sick (from the CoronaVirus).  This isn't a good thing because a noticeable percentage of those those who just get a little sick are staying sick long after they initially appear to recover (https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-begin-to-crack-covids-mysterious-long-term-effects-11604252961?mod=trending_now_pos1).  As pointed out to me by Dorita Rostkier Edelstein (of the Israel Institute for Biological Research), masks are not 100%, but they can significantly reduce the exposure among peoples, making it more likely that a person will control and eliminate the virus before it can do damage.  A more obvious example of what happens when people don't wear masks occurred when a couple (asymptomatic) attended a wedding where guests did not wear masks or keep their distance: 43 of the 100 guests were sick and three died (https://www.timesofisrael.com/outbreak-at-illegal-wedding-in-september-killed-3-guests-infected-43-report/).

At the moment, there are too many people who don't believe it a "real thing" that Joe Biden won the US election.  In fact, the current President refuses to concede and insists that the election was stolen or rigged (see: https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election/trump-concedes-nothing-on-election-biden-team-to-meet-vaccine-makers-idUSKBN27T0IQ and https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-claims.html).  In this, he is perniciously  supported by Mitch McConnell (https://www.ft.com/content/3cb2d8f4-f0f2-45cf-a1f7-a4b292f9ca91), who, with many other Republicans were either reelected or newly elected to congress. 

In mathematics, there is an idea that one can prove a hypothesis by trying to prove something which is wrong.  That is, if the wrong idea is not correct, then the right idea remains the only answer.  For instance, let's claim that the election was rigged and President Trump should be the next President of the United States.  Since elections for the House of Representatives and Senate are chosen on the same ballot, this means that a vote for Mr. Biden would have brought many new Democrats to both the House and Senate. Yet, the ballot counting shows that the Republicans gained seats in the House and that will likely hold the Senate (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-election-democrats-republicans/2020/11/04/18d725bc-1e9b-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html)!  Hence, our hypothesis that the vote was rigged is simply wrong, and Mr. Biden won the election.

Playing with the truth has dangerous consequences.  Mr. Trump's supporters believe that the election was stolen (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/pa-trump-voters.html; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-claims.html), and there have already been demonstrations against the election results (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-11-14/trump-supporters-and-far-right-groups-rally-in-washington-to-protest-election-results).  People who feel that their voices aren't being heard because their votes have been stolen would likely have a greater predilection towards violence.  Moreover, the undercurrent of anger makes it more difficult for people and their representatives to support compromise, which is necessary for the future well-being of the United States.  This must make Mr. Putin, the Russian President, very happy. 

Here, we suffer from the unreal belief that we subjugate and occupy the Palestinians, as best exemplified by the "Apartheid Roads," where only Israelis are allowed to drive (https://visualizingpalestine.org/visuals/segregated-roads-west-bank).  Yet, anyone who drives on the road outside my house can see numerous Palestinian license plates among the Israeli license plates. These are the same people, I suppose, who really believe that Israeli drivers reach the horizon and simply fall off the edge of it. 

There are at least two ways to ignore reality, often by distorting the truth.  The first is to simply use words which obscure the truth.  The other day, plans to build in Givat HaMatos were criticized for being in "East Jerusalem."  That is, the land was being "stolen" from the Holy City of Jerusalem, or the Palestinians, if I may be frank. Yet, this map (https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2020/11/e2b793b9-f5c6-435d-bc7b-12f912a7f3bd.jpg) clearly shows that Givat HaMatos is in southwest Jerusalem, very far from the Old City of Jerusalem, which might be more correctly thought of as East Jerusalem (as designated on maps after the signing of the Armistice line in 1948).  Ramat Shlomo (of Vice President Biden fame: https://www.timesofisrael.com/message-to-us-president-elect-biden-on-israel-and-the-region-first-do-no-harm/) is actually in far northern Jerusalem. So, if you want to obscure reality or the truth, just use words to describe events that have very little to do with their original usage.

Another way to obscure reality, in this case the election, is to simply feign not to see it.  As you may have heard, the election in Georgia (a key swing state) was very close.  Senator Graham decided to try to change the reality of the vote in a very simple way.  He just asked if it might be possible not count the votes themselves (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/lindsey-graham-georgia-trump-biden.html?).  My answer to him would be that would be fine, so long as we might not count the votes for the said Senator himself. 

You see, truth does matter!  Without it, there is no reality. And without reality, we have very little to rely on. 

 As pointed out to me by a neighborhood friend, the Torah speaks of God as representing truth: "I am first, and I am last, and I am all that there is" (cf. Isaiah 44:6 and Isaiah 48:12). As noted, the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet is an Aleph, the middle letter is a Mem, and the last letter is a Tav, which spells the word "Emet" or truth.  

Hence, if we want our world to move closer to a time envisioned by the Prophets, we have to make a real effort to seek the truth.

Barry Lynn

What was real:

My dream that I wasn't sleeping.

The world is flat

Accupuncture