Weather It Is (A Storm Threatens)

Good Afternoon: 

A storm threatens.

As noted, yesterday turned out to be a day of intense storms.  Plenty of moisture and dust from a southern moving storm combined to invigorate a line of convective storms that swept through central and southern areas early afternoon.  Here in Efrat, the rain literally poured down the windows, as if a giant car wash had come to wash off all the homes.  My rain gauge showed forty five millimeters of rain, which also included quite a bit of hail.  More than 207,000 lightning events were recorded from Egypt to Lebanon, from the eastern Mediterranean to Jordan and Saudia Arabia. About a third of these were cloud to ground lightning, as measured on Earth Networks Global-and the Israel Total Lightning Network. 

Although interspersed with dry periods,  this season's accumulated rain has been close to or above normal, putting to question the expected (or hoped) for value of seasonal forecasts (which were for much below normal precipitation). Yet, our Israel Winter Weather group has noted aspects of the forecast map that are consistent with periods of below normal rainfall, and unusually warm weather (after all, the Almond trees are blooming). 

Another dry period will be in store for us, which should last into mid next week.  Then, the Global ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests a rainy period.  The rain should herald a period of wet weather and falling temperatures.  In fact, we see the first signal on the forecast maps for an accumulating snow during the mid month period.  Hints of colder and possibly snowy weather have  been appearing for several days now, but the latest forecasts show the possibility of significantly deeper trough and colder weather than we've seen this year.  

I'm giving the heads up because I've come into some criticism in the recent past.  It started last Friday evening when I put on my coat, took my prayer book, and headed out to Minyon.  I was -- I admit -- a bit surprised to find that it was raining.  I returned home only to meet my wife, who said the whole episode was a big embarrassment (for her), and that she wouldn't be able to go shopping on Sunday for fear of meeting someone who might have seen her husband out in the rain, searching for a Minyon.  

Then, the next day, I learned that I am the cause of marital "strife."  The husband, I was told, follows my discussion, while the wife follows the weather page (weather-it-is-israel.com).  For cost reasons, the weather page's forecast is based on a single forecast, while my discussion for several days out is based on an ensemble of forecasts.  The result can be that a forecast discussion for Shabbat can speak about the chance of rain, while the website forecast shows just a sunny day.  I suggested to the couple that not everything is black and white, and that each one has to give a little to make things works.

In fact, a little forgetfulness can go a long way.  I appreciate it when people forget my forecasts when they are not so accurate (e.g., wrong).  I don't mind if they remember the good ones, but the point is to forget the so-called bad, and not to embellish.

For instance, The New York Times report on a hammer attack in Midtown Manhattan revealed how witnesses can embellish their memories to fit a preconceived narrative.  In the reported story, both persons saw parts of the attack, but not all of it (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/nyregion/witness-accounts-in-midtown-hammer-attack-show-the-power-of-false-memory.html).  One thought the police had shot a fleeing man, while another thought the police shot the same man while he was on the ground in handcuffs.  Cameras clearly showed, though, that the man tried to attack another police officer with a hammer, who was then shot in chase, and handcuffed only afterwards. The article suggests that our minds partake in this charade in order to make sense out of quickly changing events, especially in times of stress.

While much of our daily existence is not as exciting as a city chase, we all should keep in mind that our memories serve us, but sometimes our memories are simply the world we wish could be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn