Weather It Is (Winter Returns)

Good Evening:

Highlights:

1) A Winter Storm arrives Thursday night and lasts into Monday

2) Gale force winds late Friday into Motzei Shabbat.

3) Temperatures approach freezing in the Jerusalem area Friday night and continue their downward trend into Monday morning (possibly below freezing).

4) Periods of precipitation, with the greatest likelihood of snow in the higher elevations around Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.

5) A possible, but not likely redevelopment of the storm as the coldest air at lower levels moves in Monday.

Discussion:

There's a lot about to happen weatherwise to our small country. Of course, it's not just the weather here, but the weather over there in Europe that will also make a difference.

A large ridge of high pressure will amplify from northern Africa north through Spain, France, and Great Britain.  In response, a mass of cold air will slide southward into western Turkey.  Were we to freeze the picture there, we might expect it to move directly into the eastern Mediterranean, bringing us a major winter storm.

However, a storm moving north of Britain will flatten the ridge, cutting off the supply of cold air into the developing trough, before it can move into the eastern Mediterranean. After a brief weakening, though, there appears to be a redevelopment as colder air moves back into the trough.  Yet, the upper level trough appears to again pass to our north and east Friday night into Shabbat. 

Still, there is uncertainty in just how close the upper trough will come Friday night into Shabbat, and if there will indeed be a redevelopment early next week.

What does seem "certain" is the cold, wintry, very windy weather (gale force winds) on Friday and Shabbat, with the coldest weather to occur Monday morning.  

As for snow, currently, the best chance for snow in the central mountains is Friday night into Shabbat morning, but at the moment it appears to be a wet snow with a light accumulation in Gush Etzion, rather than in Jerusalem.  We can't be more specific about precipitation types and amounts until we see our extremely high resolution forecasts on Thursday and/or Friday morning.

As for Monday, we'll be able to see more clearly if there will be a redevelopment of the upper trough towards the end of the week.

Just as there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the "Deal of the Century."  Yet, I'd like to comment on just a few aspects of the response to the deal, rather than the deal itself -- which provides us with an interesting and disturbing idea of how the world relates to the Jewish people, and how, we in part, have been responsible for our own problems (but just so).

First, the Boycott Divest and Sanction group(s) accuses Israel of being an Apartheid state.  Yet, when the plan proposed to break off some of the Arab towns in the "Wadi Triangle" and incorporate them into a Palestinian State, the residents of these states protested strongly against this aspect of the plan (https://www.timesofisrael.com/residents-of-arab-israeli-towns-fume-as-trump-plan-suggests-they-be-resettled/ ; https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-of-arab-israelis-protest-us-plan-blast-bid-to-transfer-villages/).  These strong protests put the lie to the BDS and Left-Wing portrayal of Israel in such ill terms.  

Second, the plan allows for there to be 15 Israeli enclaves with the "State of Palestine."  The leaders of these communities say that this idea will be unworkable, and hence a Palestinian State can never come into being.  Considering that many of these communities were founded to prevent a third (Jordan and Gaza) Palestinian state from coming into being, there argument against the plan is disingenious at best.

The European Union strongly warned Israel not to go forward with any annexation plans (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-warns-israel-any-west-bank-annexation-cant-go-unchallenged/).  In the same statement, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that the Armistice line (actually, not a border) from 1948 is sacrosanct, the post 1967 war "borders" null and void,  and any changes to the 1948 line would preclude Israel from ending with a net land gain during the "negotiations."  However, in the next breath, he states: “To build a just and lasting peace, the unresolved final status issues must be decided through direct negotiations between both parties.”  So, which is it?  Does the European Union decide our borders are do direct negotiations decide them?

And with whom? We would need to negotiate with the man of a "thousand times no," Mr. Abbas, who has rejected the plan and by the way also rejects the European idea of that Palestinians would be on one side of the armistice line and Israelis on the other.  He insists that the children of the refugees from 1948 and their children be allowed to settle on the Israeli side.

So, there you have it: hypocrisy on all sides.  

But, with all that, one still has to wonder why the European Union insists that the Old City of Jerusalem and areas east of the armistice line should revert to the local Arab populations now known as the Palestinians.  Why aren't Israelis allowed to live over this line or govern the Old City?  Why aren't Israelis allowed to retain land won during defensive wars, and originally allocated to them in the Balfour Declaration, later the League of Nations, and even  after the 1967 war under the auspices of UN resolution 242? 

My strong feeling is that it irks many Europeans that Israel has survived and prospered.  You see, many have a general dislike for the Jewish people and feel that they have satisfied their guilt over the Holocaust by allowing us to live in the indefensible borders (Abba Eban referred to them as "Auschwitz borders") delineated by the armistice line.  Afterall, how better to encourage our demise than insist that we go back to these borders.  

Sorry, Mr Borrell, you can insist that Jews should again go to the gas chamber, but your 75 years too late: the Jewish state was founded just for these purposes, to protect the Jewish people from people like you, and to provide a place where the Jewish people could reclaim its history, flourish,  and live without fear of your prejudice.  You may not go away, but we are still here, and we're not your Shtetl Jew anymore (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-february-4-2020/#liveblog-entry-2234467).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Oh, Just That?)

Good Afternoon:

You know it's time to change your field of work when one of your weather group members describes the weather as "boring."  One might just as well change your group's name from "Israel Winter Weather" to "Israel's Knitting Club" with no offense to my grandmother or my mother (I still have the wool blanket my grandmother knit for me).

It's true that the dreaded "Spanish Low" is now gone, and much colder weather is on the way, but other than the chill, some gusty winds, and a some rain showers, there isn't really much to speak about.

Currently, there is a weak area of high pressure over Spain and northern Africa, and a weak trough should move through our area tonight, ending our relatively mild weather.  The ridge will amply such that by late week a trough will drop down into our area bringing more showers.  However, it and another trough should move quickly through the area.  Moreover, there is no connection between this quickly moving trough and colder air to our north, and the air over Siberia (at times, our real winter cold winter source) is not particularly frigid.  To add insult to injury, the whole pattern will translate to the east, and next week should be comparatively mild with just a few, scattered showers.

It just doesn't seem like much to get excited about or to sit up and say "wow" over.

I think it is important, in life, to be able to say wow from time to time, but what do you do if -- as you pass into later years -- the aches and pains of old age make it harder to sit up and take notice? My father recently arrived at the age of 90 years old, but he told me that it's hard for him to spend more time taking care of himself, then taking care of his interests.  Many of us our aware of those who lived happy lives deciding at some point that the effort becomes just too much.

Moreover, even our friends of not too middle age get sick or depart suddenly, and it makes one question our assumptions about the "permanence" of life (or being).

The Israeli life expectancy is fairly high and getting higher (https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/).  Also, a number of medicines and treatments were recently added to the health basket to bring new treatments, if not cures (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-inject-nis-500m-into-health-system-for-new-drug-medical-treatments/). Yet, when it comes to personal care of those who are nearing their end, our hospitals lack sensitivity to patients. Individually, most doctors and nurses do their best, but internal medicine units and urgent care units are overwhelmed with Patients.  One might be given a "call button," but often there is really no one who answers (nurses and doctors can't be in two places at once).  Patients are also given the appearance of urgent care, even when everyone knows that the end is near.

Patients (or their loved ones) need to be given the option to be sent home.  It's depressing enough for a patient to be in a room full of noise, lights, and blank walls, but why make it worse for the family that must sit by his or her side?  Why remember the last days of a loved one, as spent in an impersonal room with no remembrance of the life that was? Moreover, those who just might make it home, with the right care and timely care, are mixed with those who won't, dulling the sensitivities to those who might just be helped.

So, with all that to consider and at times to worry about, one might begin to wonder what is the point of it all.  Why are we here and what is our purpose in being here?

I've come to think that the purpose of life is to make new life.  What do fruiting trees do?  They grow bloom and produce seeded fruit.  What do we do? We smile over a baby's smile. We laugh with our children, we take pride in their accomplishments.  I stop to wonder at a sunrise, and find peacefulness just staring at the snow. 

The first thing to realize is that birth, growth, senescence, and death are all all part of a continuum.  Something or someone is born and something or someone else departs, but the inbetween is why we are here.

Our goal should not to be to live everyday like it is our last, but to live each day like today matters to us, to bring a smile to someone, to create some memory or experience, to give each day meaning.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (In the End)

Good morning:

As previously mentioned, on Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about the possibility of snow this past week.  He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather.  The  evening after, my son noted that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow in the forecast goes away.

So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming (past) week was going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder and quite snowy.

The weather this year has been quite different from last year.  Last year, there were a number of small rain events, interspersed with a few heavier rain events   The rain started late this year (the last week in December), but since then, in contrast, we've had one heavy rain event after another.  For instance, even Sunday's storm exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat.  Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent , but quiet effort, and with great modesty.

We also spoke about a disagreement in the global forecast models.  After the European and American ensemble models indicated a significant storm at the end the week, their forecasts diverged: For instance, the American model suggested that there would be a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicated a late week storm.  

We  did have a mid-week storm that brought (as forecast) some snow (but not accumulating) to Gush Etzion and some flakes in the air in Jerusalem.  The problem was that temperatures were cold enough for snow, but not cold enough to "stick" on the ground (without turning to slush or just disappearing). For a while, I kept putting on my jacket to go outside and take pictures, but the snow would stop before I could step out the door.  In the end, it was exciting to watch our first snow, even if the amounts were negligible (see: https://youtu.be/MivzJRGjqAM).

We're now before our next winter storm, and we're going to miss this one.  While early in the week the forecasts showed a  very cold 500 mb trough dropping down off our coast, the forecasted storm began to drift eastward, and now the coldest air should pass over Jordan.  We mentioned this before, but we were hopeful the colder and further west forecasts in the ensemble might "win out."  The problem was, as noted, was that within the developing ridge to our west was a fierce low pressure area that brought lots of snow and unusually cold weather to Spain.  Rather than remaining with the ridge, it is now merging with the polar jet stream to its north.  The result is that the ridge trough couplet has shifted eastward, and so has our storm.

For later today and tomorrow, expect rain in most places, but the Golan, where from 5 to 50 cm of snow should accumulate, depending on elevation (5 cm, for example in Neve Ativ, and 50 cm on the Hermon).  Otherwise, temperatures should become cold in the area of Safed and Jerusalem, with temperatures in the lower single digits from about mid-day Friday until mid-day Shabbat.  There should be snow mixed with rain in the early morning in Safed and late morning and early afternoon in Gush Etzion.  It will feel quite cold because of the wind chill, as strong winds develop from morning to afternoon.

Next week should turn milder, but the end of the month should end on a colder and rainier note.  At the moment, we do not see the possibility for an accumulating snow before February.  But, even if we did, we wouldn't really know until just two or three days before at most. 

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Snow More Likely Today)

Good Morning:

The latest global ensemble data (GEFS) shows that temperatures aloft are forecast to be about 1 degree colder than the forecast from yesterday.  Moreover, lower atmospheric temperatures are also forecast to be colder than though yesterday.  Temperatures at 850 mb in the central mountains should be about -2 C, while at 700 mb the temperatures should be about -12.5 C.  At 500 mb, temperatures are forecast to be about -29 C.

The difference is enough to up the relative amounts of snow compared to graupel and rain.  Based on a high-resolution WRF forecast based in the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Givat Ram) liquid equivalent amounts of snow should be between 3-5 mm in Gush Etzion and 1-3 mm in Jerusalem. Up to 5 to 10 mm of liquid equivalent ice is possible in Gush Etzion, with 3 - 5 mm in Jerusalem.   Moreover, the change over to a mixture of snow, ice, and rain should occur by late morning, with the heaviest snow in the afternoon and evening hours.

I wrote "liquid equivalent," rather than snow accumulation (in centimeters) because surface temperatures will probably be too warm for snow to "stick," except on possibly cars or other cold surfaces.  There is normally about 10 to 1 ratio between snow amounts and liquid equivalent amounts.

We'll probably come close to seeing snow accumulate, but not close enough.  Still, roads could become slippery in heavier ice/snow interludes.

As for Friday's storm: there is a 25% chance of a significant snow (based on the European Ensemble forecast from late evening yesterday).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Very Cold With Possible Snow)

Good Afternoon:

Highlights:

1) Very cold Tuesday with rain mixing with snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem Mountains

2) Otherwise, 25 to 50 mm of precipitation generally along the coastal cities, and the central mountains.

3) Strong "River" flows in the northern Jordan Valley, and Negev.

This winter has been unusual in that we've been the recipient of a number of very heavy rain events in the last few weeks, in contrast to last year in which there were in contrast quite a large number of small rain events.  My supposition is that the relatively warmer than usual Mediterranean waters are contributing to the intensity of the rainfall.

Tonight, a storm off to our northwest will receive an influx of colder, polar air and then drop southward, with the upper low passing just to our east late tonight and tomorrow afternoon.  Cold air at lower levels flowing in behind the storms should allow for a transition to mixed rain and snow on Tuesday in the higher elevations.

Based on our high-resolution WRF forecast (with credit to the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University, Givat Ram, Jerusalem) rain and snow is expected in the area of Safed late tonight and Tuesday morning, with rain and snow in Jerusalem from late morning into Tuesday night.  Snow will also fall on the Hermon and Golan tonight into tomorrow, with up to about 30 cm in the highest elevations of the Hermon and about 5 cm lower down to (Neve Ativ).  Elsewhere, a very light, slushy accumulation is possible on colder car surfaces in the mountains of the Galilee and mountain tops of Jerusalem. Because temperatures will be near freezing, motorists should be aware that roads could be slippery.

Turning our attention to Friday's storm, it is clear at this time that the temperatures should be colder (at the surface) than with Tuesday's storm, and that the cold should last from Friday morning into late Shabbat.  The GEFS is showing a large spike in the precipitation rate as the the cold air arrives during Friday morning, Hence, an accumulating snow is more likely than with Tuesday's storm during the morning and early afternoon hours.

The big question mark is still whether the 500 mb trough will pass over us or to our east.  At the moment, the models are forecasting the upper level trough to pass just to our east, but yesterday, it was forecast to pass quite a ways further to our eaat.  There is still also a disagreement between the European Ensemble and the American Ensemble, and much of this disagreement revolves around the strength of low pressure over Spain, which will influence the trough, ridge wavelength.  The closer it passes to us, the more snow will likely accumulate.

For a great summary from one of the members of our Israel Winter Weather group, please see:

https://www.facebook.com/JerusalemWF/videos/194776091677307/

The temperatures should moderate after Friday's storm as we head into February.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cold Week Coming)

Good Evening:

Highlights:

1) A very cold week.

2) A very wet week.

3) A very windy week.

4) Some mid-week snow followed by a very snowy end of the week?

Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about snow.  He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather.  This evening, my son mentioned that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow goes away.

So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming week is going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder.

But, first, I must mention that today's storm really exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat.  Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent, but quiet effort, and with great modesty.

In the meantime, we've been watching a disagreement between the European and American models, with the American model indicating a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicating a late week storm.  In the end, we may have the best of both worlds, with a cold (if not wet-snow) on Tuesday evening/night in the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains, and an even colder and possible frigid late week storm.

Of course, it rarely snows in Jerusalem, but we'll still mention the reasons why it might snow and then the reasons it might not. Regarding Tuesday's evening storm, the temperatures at 850, 700, and 500 mb will all be cold enough for snow. However, precipitation is not forecast (at this time) to be very heavy and overall the height of the 0 degrees Celsius level looks to be a bit high for an accumulating snow.  This means that snow would be mixed with rain and probably melt when it reached the ground. For Friday's storm, temperatures in the lower atmosphere and height of the 0 degree Celsius level should be much lower.  A potential problem, though, is that the center of the  upper level trough (500 mb) might slide by just to our east, which would limit snow amounts from a potentially larger and more significant storm.

Based on the last GEFS update, the chance of a significant snow at the end of the week is 25%.

Stay tuned; Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Return)

Good Afternoon:

So much has happened weatherwise and elsewise in the world that I feel rather tuckered out. I suppose then that the recent spell of mild weather is a welcome relief (especially to those that are in the process of drying out). 

Yet, after an unusually mild afternoon tomorrow, winter is poised to make a return.  Low pressure will arrive from the southeast, and then receive an injection of colder air from the direction of Turkey as we move into Shabbat. After showers on Shabbat, Sunday into Tuesday morning looks to see more showers and periods of rain. Temperatures at upper levels will not be nearly as cold as within our last storm so we don't expect heavy thunderstorms.  

After a short break, another storm should threaten us towards the end of next week.  There is a chance of wet snow in Jerusalem and an accumulating snow in Gush Etzion. There is still plenty of cold air "locked" up over the polar regions as the AO and NAO remain positive and are forecast to remain positive for the foreseeable future. We might be able to tap into this cold air if a strong enough ridge builds into Western Europe.  Time will tell, and we'll have to wait a few days to know if a chance will become something to more seriously talk about.

Time will also tell what will be the results of the investigation of the Air Force into recent F-16 flood related damages.  As quoted in the Times of Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/air-force-commander-orders-probe-into-costly-flood-damage-to-fighter-jets/)

“[Norkin] said the event was unbecoming of the [air] force and believed it was important to investigation, learn lessons and implement them in order to prevent similar events in the future."  

The article claimed that the Air Force was aware that rain was expected, and a number of aircraft had been moved to "higher ground," but these aircraft were not. Yet, information from our Total Lightning Network would have provided ample warning to the Air Force to pay heed to the weather.  Storms first developed around 2:15 IST off the southeast coast, northwest of Ashkelon, arrived over land around 2:45 IST, and the lightning network indicated that storms then moved southeastward over land until 4:30 IST (an example is shown below). Severe flooding occurring in Ashdod was one result (https://www.ynetnews.com/article/HJC007DVxU).  Otherwise, thirteen million gallons of water flooded the airforce base hanger between 5 and 5:30 in the morning (https://theaviationgeekclub.com/photos-show-israeli-f-16-c-d-fighter-jets-damaged-in-heavy-rainstorm-iaf-admits-mistake-in-not-moving-jets-to-safety-during-flood-at-hatzor-air-base/).  Before proceeding too far to look for the reason why the planes were damaged and tens of millions of repairs needed, the investigators might simply ask why they don't use Total Lightning Data to monitor dangerous storms. 

Barry Lynn