Weather It Is (Cold Week Coming)

Good Evening:

Highlights:

1) A very cold week.

2) A very wet week.

3) A very windy week.

4) Some mid-week snow followed by a very snowy end of the week?

Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about snow.  He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather.  This evening, my son mentioned that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow goes away.

So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming week is going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder.

But, first, I must mention that today's storm really exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat.  Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent, but quiet effort, and with great modesty.

In the meantime, we've been watching a disagreement between the European and American models, with the American model indicating a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicating a late week storm.  In the end, we may have the best of both worlds, with a cold (if not wet-snow) on Tuesday evening/night in the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains, and an even colder and possible frigid late week storm.

Of course, it rarely snows in Jerusalem, but we'll still mention the reasons why it might snow and then the reasons it might not. Regarding Tuesday's evening storm, the temperatures at 850, 700, and 500 mb will all be cold enough for snow. However, precipitation is not forecast (at this time) to be very heavy and overall the height of the 0 degrees Celsius level looks to be a bit high for an accumulating snow.  This means that snow would be mixed with rain and probably melt when it reached the ground. For Friday's storm, temperatures in the lower atmosphere and height of the 0 degree Celsius level should be much lower.  A potential problem, though, is that the center of the  upper level trough (500 mb) might slide by just to our east, which would limit snow amounts from a potentially larger and more significant storm.

Based on the last GEFS update, the chance of a significant snow at the end of the week is 25%.

Stay tuned; Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn