Good Evening:
Highlights
1) Winter Cold Returns TuesdayNight.
2) Heavy Rains, Hail, and Strong Winds
3) Snow on the Golan and Hermon
Our storm that ended the week took an unusual path, but in the process it brought plenty of dust, thunderstorms, flooding rains, and winds that gusted over 100 km/h. We had about 50 mm of rain just overnight (Friday night).
After a two day respite, our next storm will arrive from the northwest Tuesday evening, become cut off from the polar jet to its north, and then reconnect to it as even colder air reinvigorates the storm as the week ends.
Precipitation should be fairly steady from Tuesday night into Shabbat, if not Sunday, and temperatures will be very chilly, in fact downright chilly for this time of the year. At the moment, the forecast suggests that the temperatures will be cold enough for snow on the higher elevations of the Golan on Tuesday night and then Thursday into Shabbat.
Our best chance for wet snow will be next Shabbat, but most likely folks will just see a very chilly rain at the higher elevations of the central mountains. Still, colder temperatures aloft will probably bring thunderstorms with hail.
While temperatures should turn milder, if not warm the following week, the second half may again turn towards winter once more. The month will then end with a wintry chill.
When I was growing up, we had snow days come every once and a while. These are days when school would be cancelled because of a threat of snow or an actual storm itself. When I moved here, we also had a few snow days, here in the Jerusalem mountains. Other kids had "Missile Days," when HAMAS of Islamic Jihad would periodically shoot missiles at their schools so the kids could stay home and watch movies in their parents bomb shelters. What fun!
Now, we have "Virus Days." Virus days are for all the school kids, both those that sometimes stay home for snow days, and those that more frequently get missile days off. from school. In fact, it looks like this will be an extended vacation -- although not the kind those who pine for snow days would wish for.
People who have been exposed to the virus or fear they might have been exposed have been asked to enter quarantine.. Those who have not, have all rushed to the supermarkets so they can catch the virus while stocking up for what will turn out for them to be a 14 day quarantine. This is called panic, and at the moment the only reason the supermarket shelves are empty is because people bought enough food for the next month, even though the cows and chickens are not infected, and there is plenty of rain to water the grains, fruits, and vegetables. There are also deliveries continuing to arrive from overseas, although there has been a slowdown due to issues relating to how to quarantine those making the deliveries.
Of course Passover is coming -- and if anything will put an end to the virus it will be the cleaning prior to Passover. No virus will remain, nor even a bacteria anywhere in any kitchen, or under a bet or living room couch, and there certainly won't be any crumbs to feed the mice.
I tried to get something to eat the other day, but a sign said that the kitchen was closed Apparently, my wife was exposed to the the "Chametz Virus," and is now in quarantine in the kitchen -- cleaning.
So, we can hope the weather will turn warm and sunny for April, but until then our winter weather will return, giving us further reason to hope that April brings showers, not storms.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Friday, March 13, 2020
Weather It Is (Gale Winds and Floods)
Good Friday Morning.
There is a very high chance winds will exceed 41 knots (about 75 km/h) over southern areas, including Eilat later this morning into this evening. There is a small chance that winds will exceed 48 knots (90 km/h) as well.
Mitzpe Rimon should also see very strong winds, with 30 to 35 knot winds in Beer-Sheva.
There is a high probability of floods over southern areas, and in the Dead-Sea Basin, from mid-afternoon in Shabbat morning. Maximum rain amounts are expected to be 25 to 50 mm.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Weather It Is (Gale Warning)
Good Afternoon:
There is a Whole Gale warning for later this afternoon continuing into Friday morning.
Southern parts of the country have a high probability of experiencing sustained Storm winds of > 48 knots (90 km/h).
Based on our ensemble forecast (attached maps), this late afternoon will experience 35 to 40 knot winds across much of the area, with > 48 knots over southern Israel. Gusts will be greater than 60 knots
Tonight: the strongest winds will occur in the inland hills, east of the major cities, with mean winds of 34 knots (65 km/h). Winds will also increase in the Haifa area to > 30 knots. .
Tonight, within the coastal cities, gusts of > 34 knots are likely with gusts > 41 knots possible. Gusts will be especially strong in the Haifa area tonight.
Friday morning, winds will be strongest over the south with Gale winds (> 46 knots or 65 km/h).
Winds should decrease in the afternoon.
Total precipitation is also shown: generally 25 to 50 mm will fall by 0200 LT Friday, so expect flooding over southern areas. Possible flooding might occur from Ashkelon to Haifa, beginning late tonight to late morning as convective storms swing northward up the coast.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Weather It Is (Strong Storms Then Cold)
Good Morning:
Highlights:
1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.
2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.
3) Strong winds.
4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.
Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us. Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat. Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.
The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week. Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.
The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.
Barry Lynn
Highlights:
1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.
2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.
3) Strong winds.
4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.
Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us. Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat. Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.
The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week. Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.
The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, March 8, 2020
Weather It Is (Dangerous Storm on the Way)
Good Afternoon:
There seems a lot to worry about, and the forecasts for the end of the week have added to these worries.
As noted in our previous column, the weather pattern has been "stuck" in the positive phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, and both patterns have been combining to bring periodic storms, many of which have spent a good part of their lifetimes over the moist, and relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.
Thus, after a warm Purim with a chance of scattered showers the weather will change for the worse.
About mid-week, a deep trough will drop southward, passing east of Italy and west of Crete. It is part of a ridge-trough couplet stretching from western to central Europe. The trough will cut-off from the polar jet and move through Egypt and into the northern Sinai by Friday morning. Two of the three global ensemble forecast models predict the storm to then reconnect with the Polar Jet, strengthening as it moves into the southern/eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The more this system merges with the polar Jet, the heavier and more severe our weather will be.
Moreover, the southern trajectory of the storm means that there will be plenty of dust ingested into the storm, including some upper level Atlantic Ocean moisture. Together, plenty of moisture and dust suggests that thunderstorms will be more intense than typical winter-thunderstorms, and that many places will surpass the 25 mm amounts measured in southern and eastern areas during our last storm. Storms should again (also) impact the southern areas quite heavily.
The heavy rains, strong winds, thunder and hail should last from Friday into Sunday morning.
The arrival of the storm at the end of the week seems pretty certain. What is less certain is how many people will become sick from CoronaVirus. The United States CDC has a list of symptoms to be aware of (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html) including cough and high fever, as well as other helpful facts.
I'd like to dispel a pernicious and dangerous myth that seems to be spreading among some circles -- that the Coronavirus is not as dangerous as the common flu. Right now, about 3% of those infected are dying from the virus, which makes it more deadly on a percentage basis than the Spanish Flu of 1917/18. The reason some give for its supposed lack of lethality is that there are "probably" many more people who are carriers or just had light symptoms that we never hear about.
This idea is absurd because it is just as likely that there were people who were carriers of the Spanish Flu or only had light symptoms. The reason that 10s of millions died was because it spread from place to place, and occurred at a time when containment of the flu was hindered by the conditions during World War I (and the malnutrition that went with it).
The Israel Ministry of Health, including its deputy head Rabbi Yaakov Litzman, deserves high praise for its efforts to limit the spread of the virus. The current rules suspending flights and quarantining travellers and those suspected of having the disease just might, just might save millions.
But, for this to happen, each person must do his or her part.
1) Wash your hands with soap and water, frequently during the day, especially upon return home and before eating (and of course after using the bathroom).
2) Consider using an alcoholic hand cleaning solution when out, especially after touching door knobs, tables, grocery carts, etc, touched by others.
3) Try not to touch your face, mouth, and eyes with your fingers.
4) Try not to open doors with your hands.
5) STAY HOME: if you have symptoms, don't spread it to someone else because then it can spread EXPONENTIALLY from there.
6) As the Rabbi of our Synagogue recently wrote, saving a life is more important than other obligations we might have, including public prayer, and this is one of those times when we can save not just our own lives, but the lives of many others.
Barry Lynn
There seems a lot to worry about, and the forecasts for the end of the week have added to these worries.
As noted in our previous column, the weather pattern has been "stuck" in the positive phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, and both patterns have been combining to bring periodic storms, many of which have spent a good part of their lifetimes over the moist, and relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.
Thus, after a warm Purim with a chance of scattered showers the weather will change for the worse.
About mid-week, a deep trough will drop southward, passing east of Italy and west of Crete. It is part of a ridge-trough couplet stretching from western to central Europe. The trough will cut-off from the polar jet and move through Egypt and into the northern Sinai by Friday morning. Two of the three global ensemble forecast models predict the storm to then reconnect with the Polar Jet, strengthening as it moves into the southern/eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The more this system merges with the polar Jet, the heavier and more severe our weather will be.
Moreover, the southern trajectory of the storm means that there will be plenty of dust ingested into the storm, including some upper level Atlantic Ocean moisture. Together, plenty of moisture and dust suggests that thunderstorms will be more intense than typical winter-thunderstorms, and that many places will surpass the 25 mm amounts measured in southern and eastern areas during our last storm. Storms should again (also) impact the southern areas quite heavily.
The heavy rains, strong winds, thunder and hail should last from Friday into Sunday morning.
The arrival of the storm at the end of the week seems pretty certain. What is less certain is how many people will become sick from CoronaVirus. The United States CDC has a list of symptoms to be aware of (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html) including cough and high fever, as well as other helpful facts.
I'd like to dispel a pernicious and dangerous myth that seems to be spreading among some circles -- that the Coronavirus is not as dangerous as the common flu. Right now, about 3% of those infected are dying from the virus, which makes it more deadly on a percentage basis than the Spanish Flu of 1917/18. The reason some give for its supposed lack of lethality is that there are "probably" many more people who are carriers or just had light symptoms that we never hear about.
This idea is absurd because it is just as likely that there were people who were carriers of the Spanish Flu or only had light symptoms. The reason that 10s of millions died was because it spread from place to place, and occurred at a time when containment of the flu was hindered by the conditions during World War I (and the malnutrition that went with it).
The Israel Ministry of Health, including its deputy head Rabbi Yaakov Litzman, deserves high praise for its efforts to limit the spread of the virus. The current rules suspending flights and quarantining travellers and those suspected of having the disease just might, just might save millions.
But, for this to happen, each person must do his or her part.
1) Wash your hands with soap and water, frequently during the day, especially upon return home and before eating (and of course after using the bathroom).
2) Consider using an alcoholic hand cleaning solution when out, especially after touching door knobs, tables, grocery carts, etc, touched by others.
3) Try not to touch your face, mouth, and eyes with your fingers.
4) Try not to open doors with your hands.
5) STAY HOME: if you have symptoms, don't spread it to someone else because then it can spread EXPONENTIALLY from there.
6) As the Rabbi of our Synagogue recently wrote, saving a life is more important than other obligations we might have, including public prayer, and this is one of those times when we can save not just our own lives, but the lives of many others.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 6, 2020
Weather It Is (Winter Continues)
Posted March 1st. Update Motzei Shabbat:
Good Evening:
What do you do when your weatherman has "writers block?" Really, how many times can I write that it is going to rain, but that the main area of cold air will miss us to the north or to the east?
I suppose the answer is at least one more time.
It's been a really interesting winter, once it got going in late December. It started with a series of very heavy rainstorms, and we've now surpassed the average amount for the year (https://ims.gov.il/sites/default/files/ims_data/map_images/dailyRainfall/dailyRainfall.pdf?parm=5e5be31501297). Moreover, additional rain (with possible snow on the Hermon) is expected at the end of this week, and then at the end of the following week. Both rain events are associated with winter-type storms, rather than the red-sea troughs of spring.
Yet, it snowed only briefly outside the higher elevations of the Golan, and the Hermon.
In a year of continuously strongly positive North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic Oscillations (AO), one might have expected a snowstorm or two. A positive NAO means that a ridge of warm air is often present over western Europe, which is often associated with a trough of cold air over the eastern Mediterranean. These troughs of cold air help to spin up winter storms. A positive AO means that there is plenty of cold air if the atmosphere circulation should align to amplify the trough. The cold air would normally arrive via Siberia, passing over Turkey before settling in over our area. One extreme example of this was the extremely heavy snowstorm of December 2013.
However, it didn't happen, and the question is what was missing? It is a strange question to ask because this year was marked by a number of "short-waves" (storms) moving around the ridge of high pressure, and even often superimposed on it. Since these traveled over quite a distance and arrived from the west (over the sea), we were blessed with plentiful rain. This would be in contrast to the ridge building to our west and stretching far into northern Europe, while cold air flows southward from Siberia (i.e., the storm arrives more directly). Precipitation might be heavier than our average storm this winter, but less frequent. It would be an interesting research question to understand what was missing, so to speak, in the global circulation that inhibited deepening of troughs in the eastern Mediterranean.
Less theoretical, is the worry about the Corona Virus. As discussed in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
Moreover, the Chinese culture discourages individuality and criticism, which is especially bad under the current government. For an interesting summary of the effect of cultural norms on safety, read here: https://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2008/12/04/malcolm-gladwell-on-culture-cockpit-communication-and-plane-crashes/.
Had the Corona Virus been dealt with earlier, instead of only after it became an epidemic (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html) quite possibly countless lives could have been saved -- not to mention the disruption to the world economies.
On our side of the world, our government has been pro-active in preventing the spread of the virus. We can only hope that we will have a new government soon that it will also be proactive in fixing our problems with hospital over-crowding (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/middleeast/israel-election-issues.html?), lack of roads and mass transit, and an educational system that pays its teachers far too little, and educates its students to be knowledgeable but not wise children.
Barry Lynn
Good Evening:
What do you do when your weatherman has "writers block?" Really, how many times can I write that it is going to rain, but that the main area of cold air will miss us to the north or to the east?
I suppose the answer is at least one more time.
It's been a really interesting winter, once it got going in late December. It started with a series of very heavy rainstorms, and we've now surpassed the average amount for the year (https://ims.gov.il/sites/default/files/ims_data/map_images/dailyRainfall/dailyRainfall.pdf?parm=5e5be31501297). Moreover, additional rain (with possible snow on the Hermon) is expected at the end of this week, and then at the end of the following week. Both rain events are associated with winter-type storms, rather than the red-sea troughs of spring.
Yet, it snowed only briefly outside the higher elevations of the Golan, and the Hermon.
In a year of continuously strongly positive North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic Oscillations (AO), one might have expected a snowstorm or two. A positive NAO means that a ridge of warm air is often present over western Europe, which is often associated with a trough of cold air over the eastern Mediterranean. These troughs of cold air help to spin up winter storms. A positive AO means that there is plenty of cold air if the atmosphere circulation should align to amplify the trough. The cold air would normally arrive via Siberia, passing over Turkey before settling in over our area. One extreme example of this was the extremely heavy snowstorm of December 2013.
However, it didn't happen, and the question is what was missing? It is a strange question to ask because this year was marked by a number of "short-waves" (storms) moving around the ridge of high pressure, and even often superimposed on it. Since these traveled over quite a distance and arrived from the west (over the sea), we were blessed with plentiful rain. This would be in contrast to the ridge building to our west and stretching far into northern Europe, while cold air flows southward from Siberia (i.e., the storm arrives more directly). Precipitation might be heavier than our average storm this winter, but less frequent. It would be an interesting research question to understand what was missing, so to speak, in the global circulation that inhibited deepening of troughs in the eastern Mediterranean.
Less theoretical, is the worry about the Corona Virus. As discussed in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
Moreover, the Chinese culture discourages individuality and criticism, which is especially bad under the current government. For an interesting summary of the effect of cultural norms on safety, read here: https://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2008/12/04/malcolm-gladwell-on-culture-cockpit-communication-and-plane-crashes/.
Had the Corona Virus been dealt with earlier, instead of only after it became an epidemic (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html) quite possibly countless lives could have been saved -- not to mention the disruption to the world economies.
On our side of the world, our government has been pro-active in preventing the spread of the virus. We can only hope that we will have a new government soon that it will also be proactive in fixing our problems with hospital over-crowding (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/middleeast/israel-election-issues.html?), lack of roads and mass transit, and an educational system that pays its teachers far too little, and educates its students to be knowledgeable but not wise children.
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 24, 2020
Weather It Is (Southern Flooding)
Good Afternoon:
Special Weather Statement for Southern and South-Central Israel
A relatively small, but intense storm system should move through the Sinai today and then swing northward towards southern Israel.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms should occur from about midnight until tomorrow (Tuesday Afternoon) in the central and southern Negev, from Eilat, through Mitzpe Rimon, and possibly up to Beer-Sheva.
Flooding of streams and rivers is very likely throughout the Negev, and possibly in the Dead-Sea Basin east of Jerusalem.
Hail could also damage cars and agricultural interests.
Barry Lynn
Special Weather Statement for Southern and South-Central Israel
A relatively small, but intense storm system should move through the Sinai today and then swing northward towards southern Israel.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms should occur from about midnight until tomorrow (Tuesday Afternoon) in the central and southern Negev, from Eilat, through Mitzpe Rimon, and possibly up to Beer-Sheva.
Flooding of streams and rivers is very likely throughout the Negev, and possibly in the Dead-Sea Basin east of Jerusalem.
Hail could also damage cars and agricultural interests.
Barry Lynn
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)