Good Evening:
Looking ahead at the weather maps for the next two weeks suggests that the weatherman should take a long awaited rest. True, there will be some ups and downs in the temperatures, but these should be more like the gentle undulation of the summer sea than winter tempest.
A while back I wrote a blog about last week's weather -- only I wrote it the week before last week's weather. I pointed out that we'd already had one unusual May (winter) rain, and that our unusually intense and unusually long lasting heatwave would likely be followed by another winter like storm. At one point the global forecasts suggested that this would be a late spring storm more reminiscent of our most severe winter storms. In the end, though nighttime and morning rains fell fast and furious in many locations, it was over before the afternoon, and some places saw only sprinkles.
I had hoped that this last storm would "bring the house down," before moving into our summer months, and that I would finally get the recognition I've felt I deserved all along. Alas I did not...
Until, I did. It happened just the other day that my wife came downstairs and said: "this weather is really amazing." I told her that I agreed with her and then I waited. And then it came: "thank you."
I may make a mess in the kitchen, but where it counts there is appreciation!
One strange thing about being in relative seclusion is that I find I miss people that I never thought I would ever miss. I find myself actually happy to see my neighbor or catch a word with someone who just used to just pass me by on the street.
Of course, this is a far different kind of missing than the missing that unfortunately happens to all of us if we spend enough time here on earth. We're either missing someone or eventually being missed ourselves. Such is a time for sad words, occasionally with perhaps a moment of happier recollection. But, its also the time when you wish you could have said something or wish you could say something that the other person would have appreciated hearing, if only (perhaps they are) could hear just then.
But, what if you could actually be sure that the person or persons get the message? Wouldn't it be better to pass the message on while you know you can?
I've been pondering this question for a while and decided that I would try to write a letter to my parents, saying simply "Thank you." I really want them to know how much I appreciate them and how important they have been to me, my family, and how much I have enjoyed their spending time with us and their grandchildren.
When we're young, we have a feeling of endless time. We get up, we go to school, the coming of summer brings an extra bit of joy, and we simply assume that our parents will make it all happen. They comfort when needed: like the time when I ignored their admonition not to ride my tricycle without shoes on. They put food on the table: we even had a dinner bell so we wouldn't be late for supper. Nothing was tastier than Dad's chicken in a bag, or Mom's pies. I can't even count the number of salads my mother made -- that is dedication. They had endless patience to help with homework, and were always there to drop us off or pick us up.
Yet, childhood was not easy, for them or us. We all had challenges that needed attention. We had neighbors who I definitely do not miss for their teasing. At one point my mother went back to work, while my father studied for his Ph.D. Those were hard years where Dad was home, but he wasn't home.
Ironically, I've done the same thing. I worked many days at home, and even right out in the open of our living room. Yet, I was too busy at times to relate like a father should.
But, how do I really know how a father or parent should relate? Simply because of them. Mom and Dad didn't just take care of us, but they also taught us their values. It was these fundamental values that enabled me to find my "soulmate," who was raised in a family quite different from ours, but with the same values of honesty, kindness, and belief in responsibility. They also taught us to make up our own minds and respected our interests. The wind vane my father placed on the apex of the house is still there. I received payment for growing strawberries in my garden, and now my garden is full of blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, cherries... I still have the bicycle I received before and used on my first real cross-country trip
It seems like I lived at home forever. Yet, most of my life has been spent beyond the years when I lived at home. But, inbetween leaving home and having a family of my own there was a transition. One might think that children leave -- or at least children think this -- that parents stop being parents, but it isn't so. I still remember my father giving me advice about what I should do after finishing my Ph.D: I wanted to go to Israel to learn Torah and he said I should work first, so I could be sure to have a job when I returned. I was so angry (at him) because I wanted more than just learning, but a religious family too, and I wanted it then, not later. Still, I accepted his advice, went to learn 4 years afterwards, and parlayed my work experience into a job that I still have 20 years later. Dad and I used to bicycle together and I resented being told I was riding my bicycle too far off the shoulder. He agreed to tone it down. Yet, I am certain to give my children the same type of advice. In fact, I don't hesitate to give advice when I think safety matters are at hand.
Now, our relationship has evolved from parent-child to one of parent-grandchildren. This is something we never had, as their parents or our grandparents passed away too soon.
It was and is as grandparents that my parents' kindness has made all the difference in our lives. There is nothing nicer than a new winter hat from Grandma or a fun game to play when it rains. Both packed and carried duffel bags almost as large as elephants on their periodic visits. One day Mom decided that our apartment was too small, and within a few months we we're looking to move. The kids need a tutor, please let us help.
There is a joke about moving to Israel: how do you make a small fortune? Move to Israel with a large fortune. To be honest, just have one of your kids live in Israel. It's not the way it should be, but they adapted their beliefs to fit the situation.
Of course, having the means to help and actually helping are not the same thing. There are people who want to help, but can't. There are people who could help, but won't. Then, there are people who want to help, and do help.
Moreover, it's not just me -- they've always been there for my siblings, no matter how small or how large the problem. To them, family is more than a word, it's a creed.
I suppose I could have written a different type of blog, and told a few stories about our lives together. Stories, though, are fleeting. They overshadow the daily day to day interactions that life is really made of. They overshadow life itself, but they are not what life is.
Barry Lynn
Monday, June 1, 2020
Friday, May 22, 2020
Weather It Is (Just Some Rain)
Good Morning:
The polar jet is now forecast to amplify over northern Europe at the expense of the low pressure system ejecting into the eastern Mediterranean. This will draw the low pressure system further north, meaning that the chance for severe weather in our area is now quite low.
Hence, just some light to moderate rain is expected mostly Sunday into Monday. Much cooler weather for the coming week!
Shabbat Shalom,
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Weather It Is (Severe Thunder Storms Possible)
Good Afternoon:
Highlight: Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Monday Morning.
An unusually strong and hot high pressure system will move to our east Thursday night. Winds will switch to the west, and temperatures should then start trending downwards on Friday.
However, this is not your typical heat wave that will dissipate to be replaced by more temperate springtime temperatures.
The probability of storms and accompanying heavy rain (strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning) has increased over the last few days, with more recent forecasts bringing the storm further south and west -- an ideal location for us to bring heavy rain.
In fact, unusually cold air should drop southward from the polar jet-stream: temperatures will fall off at all levels of the atmosphere and humidity levels will sharply increase as we move into Sunday.
The warming sea and strong sun should combine to provide plenty of moisture to increase CAPE (convective available potential energy) as Sunday morning moves into Sunday afternoon. Moreover, the upper level trough is associated with a very strong "vorticity" maximum, which should cause divergence aloft, and upward vertical motion. Hence, the forecast for strong thunderstorms that should develop on Sunday and last into Monday, affecting a large part of the country from north to south.
The current heat wave has been described as unprecedented -- mostly in terms of its duration, but May itself was already punctuated by a "winter rain" and our upcoming storm may cement this May in the memories of all.
Barry Lynn
Highlight: Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Monday Morning.
An unusually strong and hot high pressure system will move to our east Thursday night. Winds will switch to the west, and temperatures should then start trending downwards on Friday.
However, this is not your typical heat wave that will dissipate to be replaced by more temperate springtime temperatures.
The probability of storms and accompanying heavy rain (strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning) has increased over the last few days, with more recent forecasts bringing the storm further south and west -- an ideal location for us to bring heavy rain.
In fact, unusually cold air should drop southward from the polar jet-stream: temperatures will fall off at all levels of the atmosphere and humidity levels will sharply increase as we move into Sunday.
The warming sea and strong sun should combine to provide plenty of moisture to increase CAPE (convective available potential energy) as Sunday morning moves into Sunday afternoon. Moreover, the upper level trough is associated with a very strong "vorticity" maximum, which should cause divergence aloft, and upward vertical motion. Hence, the forecast for strong thunderstorms that should develop on Sunday and last into Monday, affecting a large part of the country from north to south.
The current heat wave has been described as unprecedented -- mostly in terms of its duration, but May itself was already punctuated by a "winter rain" and our upcoming storm may cement this May in the memories of all.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Weather It Is (Stifling Heat)
Good Afternoon:
Extreme Heat Likely! Danger to Life!
High pressure will build out of Africa over the next several days. The high pressure area is part of a broader ridge of warm air stretching into northwestern Europe. A stalled low pressure area over Spain embedded in the ridge will help to draw the high pressure area unusually northward, bringing with it desert heat. Based on global ensemble forecasts. there is a very high probability of extreme heat.
Northeasterly winds will exacerbate the heat as air descends over the mountains into the inland and coastal valleys.
The heat will increase throughout the week, before reaching a peak most likely on Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s to near 40 in the mountain areas, and 40 to just above 40 in the inland valleys. Areas close to the coast will see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, with higher humidity (and higher heat indexes).
The heat will slowly dissipate as next week pushes along. However, there is a 50% chance that next week will end with temperatures again near 40 Celcius again.
Our rather tranquil, cool, and occasionally rainy weather has come to an end, and we our now in the period before summer when heat extremes are more likely than at other times of the spring/summer seasons.
Barry Lynn
Extreme Heat Likely! Danger to Life!
High pressure will build out of Africa over the next several days. The high pressure area is part of a broader ridge of warm air stretching into northwestern Europe. A stalled low pressure area over Spain embedded in the ridge will help to draw the high pressure area unusually northward, bringing with it desert heat. Based on global ensemble forecasts. there is a very high probability of extreme heat.
Northeasterly winds will exacerbate the heat as air descends over the mountains into the inland and coastal valleys.
The heat will increase throughout the week, before reaching a peak most likely on Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s to near 40 in the mountain areas, and 40 to just above 40 in the inland valleys. Areas close to the coast will see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, with higher humidity (and higher heat indexes).
The heat will slowly dissipate as next week pushes along. However, there is a 50% chance that next week will end with temperatures again near 40 Celcius again.
Our rather tranquil, cool, and occasionally rainy weather has come to an end, and we our now in the period before summer when heat extremes are more likely than at other times of the spring/summer seasons.
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 8, 2020
Weather Forecasts (be Skeptical, but don't be a Skeptic)
Good Morning;
Updated Sunday morning May 10th.
The other day my wife asked me about why I wrote about her changing her wardrobe from winter to summer. "Why do people need to know about me changing my wardrobe?"
It's a good question that I have been pondering ever since. It's one of the reasons I haven't been doing much else, and have had trouble spending enough time to revise a research paper I am working on. I also growled at the cat, and complained about the mess in the house. It's one of the reasons that my last Thursday seemed to last forever. Such was the confusion about the time and day of the week that I may have been directly responsible for my wife waking up that night and asking: "is it still Shabbat?" To make matters worse, this morning she complained that she couldn't get out of bed because I forgot to tell her whether it would be winter or spring, so she didn't know what to wear. All because I wrote about her changing her wardrobe.
It should be pretty clear to the reader of this blog that my wife never pays any attention to my weather forecasts, which are readily available on the web. Had she, she would have noted that we were predicting the recent "winterstorm" in springtime more than a week in advance. Fortunately, she was able to scrounge some winter clothes, so she survived the storm in good health (Thank God) and good spirits -- until this morning when she didn't know what to wear. Of course, she chose spring clothing, and had to later change back to winter.
The weather can change quickly at this time of year, which adds to uncertainty in the forecast. Still, the next two weeks look like spring will have finally sprung, with many days being warm and sunny, and by the time I write my next blog it will most likely be oppressively hot!
Yet, even when the global forecast looks to be certain (meaning the model ensemble shows a high probability of a weather event -- or not), one should always have a bit of skepticism. Weather models have certain set grid spacings between forecast points, and various physical processes represented in the models are based on assumptions that can over time lead to unrealistic forecasts (model errors). A good dose of skepticism is required in order to minimize the chance of being caught by surprise.
Skepticism is defined as doubt about the truth of something. Just type in "Define skepticism" and you'll find things like "what is the goal of skepticism," "what is the importance of skepticism," and "what is the role of skepticism in science?"
Perhaps quite important to the following discussion: "is skepticism an emotion?"
Skepticism can be a good thing. It can challenge prevailing theories, reinterpreting the facts to develop a new, better theory. For instance, Daniel Kahneman working with Amos Tversky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman) both developed a rigorous way to study human errors that arise from heuristics and biases (simple strategies we use to cope with events and how our preconceptions affect our responses to them).
There is also a vocal group (including some scientists) who are skeptical about global predictions. At this point, we can say that the world has warmed in the last 50 years, but not as much as predicted by most of the climate forecast models. For instance, this page shows a warming of about 0.5 degrees above the average of the last 50 years (https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2020_v6.jpg), which is about 1 degrees Celcius above the coldest temperatures within this period. However, average warming predictions were for about 0.8 Celcius by this time (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/), and about 90% of the forecasts were warmer than the observed warming. One might indeed wonder where are we going when it snows in May in New York City (Saturday morning), the coldest May 6th since 1891. How this should affect our economic and social policy going forward is something that should be considered. It is important to consider skeptical argument, and rebut it if possible. For instance, we will have an additional 0.3 Celcius warming just in the next decade if we continue along our current trend. Is that a large and important change, even though smaller than the vast majority of forecasts?
But, then there are what we will call "Skeptics." One might think that these practice emotional skepticism, trying to influence others through the use of emotional rhetoric. But, an emotional skeptic actually involves being aware of how easily emotions, strong passions, and convictions, can influence our response to stimuli in ways that may not be for our best interest.
Rather, I am calling a "Skeptic" as someone whose worldview informs his/her interpretation of the facts rather than facts informing his/her worldview. Usually, these types of people will base their opinion on other "Skeptics," in a reinforcing circle of delusion.
This is most pertinent to our policy related to coronavirus.
A Skeptic will say that the coronavirus is not so bad, no worse than a bad flu, and the policy of social distancing, shutting businesses has been a mistake - a colossal waste of money. Yet, both left (e.g, The New York Times) and right (e.g, the Wall Street Journal) newspapers have been reporting the perils of this pandemic. For instance, the WSJ reported that those who have been more susceptible to the virus have felt that the virus was akin to the "invasion of the body snatchers," (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hijacks-the-body-from-head-to-toe-perplexing-doctors-11588864248?mod=hp_lead_pos5). Moreover, Skeptics argue that the Pandemic is not really a pandemic or that hospitals were not really overwhelmed with patients. Yet, the NYTs has reported that there is no space to store the dead (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-funeral-home-morgue-bodies.html) and that the death rate (death per unit time) has increased by more than 50% in many countries (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html), and even increased six times in New York City (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html). See also: Doctors are fed up with conspiracies ravaging ERsHealth care professionals are dealing with a flurry of misinformation and harassment from conspiracy theorists, some of whom press doctors for proof of the virus's severity.'What are we doing this for?'
Another supposition is that a person just needs to develop antibodies against the virus. Yet, it is not at all clear that these antibodies or even all antibodies will protect against the virus (https://www.wsj.com/articles/among-new-coronavirus-antibody-tests-limited-value-and-many-unknowns-11588877202?mod=hp_lead_pos6). Moreover, as noted, many of the testing kits are not reliable.
Lastly, there is the idea of "herd immunity." Herd immunity is the idea that when enough people become immune that the disease spreads at a lower rate than at first encounter with people (or animals), perhaps even disappearing: (https://www.healthline.com/health/herd-immunity). For a good review, see here: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/is-herd-immunity-our-best-weapon-against-covid-19.
Yet, herd immunity doesn't really work to protect us against the ravages of disease. That is why we need vaccines for measles, polio, mumps, etc. There are always new people being born, and there are always some who can infect the uninfected, or whose immunity has worn off. Moreover, the achievement of general immunity can come at a tremendous cost.
Here are some Skeptics to be aware of and why.
"The Failure of Expert Opinion" https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwHNMRZTdsdxBBdtVtgQGFHZtDw?projector=1 Here, the person admits he doesn't understand basic concepts about the virus. He is not a medical or biological expert. He claims that if the infection rate is really like the flu, then we have nothing to worry about. Yet, he overlooks the fact that this is the percentage of people infected, rather than the population as whole -- many of whom have been vaccinated. Yet, there is no vaccine for Coronavirus.
The second shows a speaker (a doctor) who claims to be one of many physicians who believe that social distancing doesn't work (https://www.facebook.com/mari.barke/videos/10223167578641076/). You can tell these are true Skeptics because they denigrate those who believe otherwise by claiming they are "experts" and "mainstream media." Such ideas run counter to common sense, and counter to the experience of countries that practiced social distancing earlier compared to later (e.g., compare Israel and Belgium, or even Great Britain).
Then we have a long presentation from an epidemiologist who claims that we have reached a peak (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. Speaking about a peak implies that the number of new infections and deaths are moving downwards, or will soon will be, so we should immediately open the economy, without restriction. However, a plateau suggests otherwise. It actually implies an increasing number of total deaths (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america); these projections imply that the length of stay on the plateau and how many deaths will depend on how people behave and observe social distancing in the coming months. There are other questionable assumptions, like counting on herd immunity, which are used to support the most likely incorrect conclusions of the investigator.
Ironically, many of the arguments about the effectiveness of social distancing overlook the fact there have (most likely been) lower death (and death rates) than projected because of social distancing itself! After all, one might just say that vaccines don't work because there are very few deaths from Measles, Chicken Pox, and Polio.
By the way, Small Pox is supposedly extinct, but this happened not because of herd immunity developing because of the disease, but because of the vaccine against small pox itself.
The irony is that the Skeptics are correct to worry about the effect of economic and social policy on the state of the economy. However, if you want to be heard and you want to heard in a serious way, it is first necessary to admit that there is a problem to be addressed.
Shabbat Shalom (and now Shavua Tov!)
Barry Lynn
Updated Sunday morning May 10th.
The other day my wife asked me about why I wrote about her changing her wardrobe from winter to summer. "Why do people need to know about me changing my wardrobe?"
It's a good question that I have been pondering ever since. It's one of the reasons I haven't been doing much else, and have had trouble spending enough time to revise a research paper I am working on. I also growled at the cat, and complained about the mess in the house. It's one of the reasons that my last Thursday seemed to last forever. Such was the confusion about the time and day of the week that I may have been directly responsible for my wife waking up that night and asking: "is it still Shabbat?" To make matters worse, this morning she complained that she couldn't get out of bed because I forgot to tell her whether it would be winter or spring, so she didn't know what to wear. All because I wrote about her changing her wardrobe.
It should be pretty clear to the reader of this blog that my wife never pays any attention to my weather forecasts, which are readily available on the web. Had she, she would have noted that we were predicting the recent "winterstorm" in springtime more than a week in advance. Fortunately, she was able to scrounge some winter clothes, so she survived the storm in good health (Thank God) and good spirits -- until this morning when she didn't know what to wear. Of course, she chose spring clothing, and had to later change back to winter.
The weather can change quickly at this time of year, which adds to uncertainty in the forecast. Still, the next two weeks look like spring will have finally sprung, with many days being warm and sunny, and by the time I write my next blog it will most likely be oppressively hot!
Yet, even when the global forecast looks to be certain (meaning the model ensemble shows a high probability of a weather event -- or not), one should always have a bit of skepticism. Weather models have certain set grid spacings between forecast points, and various physical processes represented in the models are based on assumptions that can over time lead to unrealistic forecasts (model errors). A good dose of skepticism is required in order to minimize the chance of being caught by surprise.
Skepticism is defined as doubt about the truth of something. Just type in "Define skepticism" and you'll find things like "what is the goal of skepticism," "what is the importance of skepticism," and "what is the role of skepticism in science?"
Perhaps quite important to the following discussion: "is skepticism an emotion?"
Skepticism can be a good thing. It can challenge prevailing theories, reinterpreting the facts to develop a new, better theory. For instance, Daniel Kahneman working with Amos Tversky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman) both developed a rigorous way to study human errors that arise from heuristics and biases (simple strategies we use to cope with events and how our preconceptions affect our responses to them).
There is also a vocal group (including some scientists) who are skeptical about global predictions. At this point, we can say that the world has warmed in the last 50 years, but not as much as predicted by most of the climate forecast models. For instance, this page shows a warming of about 0.5 degrees above the average of the last 50 years (https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2020_v6.jpg), which is about 1 degrees Celcius above the coldest temperatures within this period. However, average warming predictions were for about 0.8 Celcius by this time (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/), and about 90% of the forecasts were warmer than the observed warming. One might indeed wonder where are we going when it snows in May in New York City (Saturday morning), the coldest May 6th since 1891. How this should affect our economic and social policy going forward is something that should be considered. It is important to consider skeptical argument, and rebut it if possible. For instance, we will have an additional 0.3 Celcius warming just in the next decade if we continue along our current trend. Is that a large and important change, even though smaller than the vast majority of forecasts?
But, then there are what we will call "Skeptics." One might think that these practice emotional skepticism, trying to influence others through the use of emotional rhetoric. But, an emotional skeptic actually involves being aware of how easily emotions, strong passions, and convictions, can influence our response to stimuli in ways that may not be for our best interest.
Rather, I am calling a "Skeptic" as someone whose worldview informs his/her interpretation of the facts rather than facts informing his/her worldview. Usually, these types of people will base their opinion on other "Skeptics," in a reinforcing circle of delusion.
This is most pertinent to our policy related to coronavirus.
A Skeptic will say that the coronavirus is not so bad, no worse than a bad flu, and the policy of social distancing, shutting businesses has been a mistake - a colossal waste of money. Yet, both left (e.g, The New York Times) and right (e.g, the Wall Street Journal) newspapers have been reporting the perils of this pandemic. For instance, the WSJ reported that those who have been more susceptible to the virus have felt that the virus was akin to the "invasion of the body snatchers," (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hijacks-the-body-from-head-to-toe-perplexing-doctors-11588864248?mod=hp_lead_pos5). Moreover, Skeptics argue that the Pandemic is not really a pandemic or that hospitals were not really overwhelmed with patients. Yet, the NYTs has reported that there is no space to store the dead (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-funeral-home-morgue-bodies.html) and that the death rate (death per unit time) has increased by more than 50% in many countries (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html), and even increased six times in New York City (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html). See also: Doctors are fed up with conspiracies ravaging ERsHealth care professionals are dealing with a flurry of misinformation and harassment from conspiracy theorists, some of whom press doctors for proof of the virus's severity.'What are we doing this for?'
Another supposition is that a person just needs to develop antibodies against the virus. Yet, it is not at all clear that these antibodies or even all antibodies will protect against the virus (https://www.wsj.com/articles/among-new-coronavirus-antibody-tests-limited-value-and-many-unknowns-11588877202?mod=hp_lead_pos6). Moreover, as noted, many of the testing kits are not reliable.
Lastly, there is the idea of "herd immunity." Herd immunity is the idea that when enough people become immune that the disease spreads at a lower rate than at first encounter with people (or animals), perhaps even disappearing: (https://www.healthline.com/health/herd-immunity). For a good review, see here: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/is-herd-immunity-our-best-weapon-against-covid-19.
Yet, herd immunity doesn't really work to protect us against the ravages of disease. That is why we need vaccines for measles, polio, mumps, etc. There are always new people being born, and there are always some who can infect the uninfected, or whose immunity has worn off. Moreover, the achievement of general immunity can come at a tremendous cost.
Here are some Skeptics to be aware of and why.
"The Failure of Expert Opinion" https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwHNMRZTdsdxBBdtVtgQGFHZtDw?projector=1 Here, the person admits he doesn't understand basic concepts about the virus. He is not a medical or biological expert. He claims that if the infection rate is really like the flu, then we have nothing to worry about. Yet, he overlooks the fact that this is the percentage of people infected, rather than the population as whole -- many of whom have been vaccinated. Yet, there is no vaccine for Coronavirus.
The second shows a speaker (a doctor) who claims to be one of many physicians who believe that social distancing doesn't work (https://www.facebook.com/mari.barke/videos/10223167578641076/). You can tell these are true Skeptics because they denigrate those who believe otherwise by claiming they are "experts" and "mainstream media." Such ideas run counter to common sense, and counter to the experience of countries that practiced social distancing earlier compared to later (e.g., compare Israel and Belgium, or even Great Britain).
Then we have a long presentation from an epidemiologist who claims that we have reached a peak (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. Speaking about a peak implies that the number of new infections and deaths are moving downwards, or will soon will be, so we should immediately open the economy, without restriction. However, a plateau suggests otherwise. It actually implies an increasing number of total deaths (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america); these projections imply that the length of stay on the plateau and how many deaths will depend on how people behave and observe social distancing in the coming months. There are other questionable assumptions, like counting on herd immunity, which are used to support the most likely incorrect conclusions of the investigator.
Ironically, many of the arguments about the effectiveness of social distancing overlook the fact there have (most likely been) lower death (and death rates) than projected because of social distancing itself! After all, one might just say that vaccines don't work because there are very few deaths from Measles, Chicken Pox, and Polio.
By the way, Small Pox is supposedly extinct, but this happened not because of herd immunity developing because of the disease, but because of the vaccine against small pox itself.
The irony is that the Skeptics are correct to worry about the effect of economic and social policy on the state of the economy. However, if you want to be heard and you want to heard in a serious way, it is first necessary to admit that there is a problem to be addressed.
Shabbat Shalom (and now Shavua Tov!)
Barry Lynn
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Weather It Is (Moving On)
Good Afternoon:
My wife took out her winter clothes and exchanged them for her summer clothes. She says that she is fed up with this weather and refuses to take it anymore.
Yesterday was chilly, windy, and showery, and today is definitely chilly. But, the sun is shining, and it should keep doing so for the next few days, and temperatures should moderate as well. When we look into May, though, we see another increase in humidity and that perhaps another weak "winter" storm that will bring a chance of thunderstorms followed by showers.
Some of you have might have noticed the yellow tint to the sky prior to Friday's storm. Yes, that was the color of dust, and the rain that fell was not the "pure rain" we've heard about and written about in poems.
There is supposed good news making the rounds of the internet (and newspapers). For instance, the Wall Street Journal editorializes (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-antibody-evidence-11587769490?) that the apparent greater spread of the disease means the mortality rate is lower than the 3 -- 4 % estimated by the WHO. For example, the apparent mortality rate in the US is about 5.5%. It's possible that it is 10 times lower. However, in places that have done hundreds of thousands of tests, the infection is about 1 to 12% (e.g., UAE, Israel, Germany, and Italy (highest)). This is far from 50% that would lower the mortality rate from 5% to 0.5 or even less.
There are those who argue that if more people are already infected than we think that we'll be able to open the economy sooner. However, even if 10% of the population is already infected, that still leaves the rest who could become infected. Already the overall number of deaths is about twice that of the flu (in the US) and hospitals were already overwhelmed with patients. The end result could be many times higher unless a vaccine is developed and/or people continue to practice safe(r) hygiene (wear a mask, gloves, and wash their hands!).
Unfortunately, there is further information concerning the possible moribundity of the Coronavirus for even patients in their late 30s (https://www.timesofisrael.com/coronavirus-causing-strokes-in-some-younger-patients-report/). Researchers have found that some patients in their late 30s, 40s, and 50 are dying of strokes, and that 4 % and 8% of patients in the 40s and 50s require hospilization. So, government officials need to think very carefully about how they open the economy and allow social interactions, even among younger people. Moreover, there is evidence that people can become infected more than once.
As Ronald Reagan was fond of saying: "Trust and Verify" (https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/10/opinion/trust-but-verify.html). In this case, the government needs to test as many people as it can, people who have an inkling of feeling ill should stay home, and those who go out need to keep their distance from others. Then, the economy can hopefully be reopened wisely, while protecting the most vulnerable (older population).
One organization trying to implement safe practices is the Israel Defense Force. We dropped our daughter at the induction center in Jerusalem, and we were not allowed to stay, but waved goodbye from a distance. She like the other young women came with large suitcases stuffed with enough underwear to last a month (I wouldn't want to be that first pair worn, or even the second...). I left the drop-off zone feeling like I had forgotten something. I couldn't figure out what that might be, since I hadn't exactly "forgotten" my daughter as we drove away.
We look forward to seeing her again, but I have to admit that it wasn't easy to wave goodbye (even if only for a month). When I returned home, I put my oatmeal in the wrong bowl, and almost put milk in my orange juice. Looking at newly taken picture of her in her army uniform, I wondered if parents every really see their children as they seem themselves? Or, even as others see them?
If I had my druthers, parents would live with their kids (and vice versa), but this isn't very practical and perhaps not very healthy over the long term. Still, if we're all in Israel, you can only go so far in any direction. Besides: when I got into this business of raising kids it wasn't so she could always be the sweet child she is, but with the hope that she would grow up to be independent, wise, and a good parent herself. So, who is to complain?
My wife, actually. She sent me for an-other hearing test. For some time now, she's been complaining that I don't hear her. I was was agreement (what else could I say), so I went for the test. Much to my surprise, they said my hearing is pretty much like it was the last time she sent me -- not much change (not perfect, but certainly within the range of expected range of sounds at my age). She professes to be happy with the news, but I am not so sure. The strange thing is that I never complain that she doesn't hear me. I sometimes think that she doesn't listen to me, but that is a different kettle of fish (https://literarydevices.net/a-different-kettle-of-fish/) entirely!
Barry Lynn
My wife took out her winter clothes and exchanged them for her summer clothes. She says that she is fed up with this weather and refuses to take it anymore.
Yesterday was chilly, windy, and showery, and today is definitely chilly. But, the sun is shining, and it should keep doing so for the next few days, and temperatures should moderate as well. When we look into May, though, we see another increase in humidity and that perhaps another weak "winter" storm that will bring a chance of thunderstorms followed by showers.
Some of you have might have noticed the yellow tint to the sky prior to Friday's storm. Yes, that was the color of dust, and the rain that fell was not the "pure rain" we've heard about and written about in poems.
There is supposed good news making the rounds of the internet (and newspapers). For instance, the Wall Street Journal editorializes (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-antibody-evidence-11587769490?) that the apparent greater spread of the disease means the mortality rate is lower than the 3 -- 4 % estimated by the WHO. For example, the apparent mortality rate in the US is about 5.5%. It's possible that it is 10 times lower. However, in places that have done hundreds of thousands of tests, the infection is about 1 to 12% (e.g., UAE, Israel, Germany, and Italy (highest)). This is far from 50% that would lower the mortality rate from 5% to 0.5 or even less.
There are those who argue that if more people are already infected than we think that we'll be able to open the economy sooner. However, even if 10% of the population is already infected, that still leaves the rest who could become infected. Already the overall number of deaths is about twice that of the flu (in the US) and hospitals were already overwhelmed with patients. The end result could be many times higher unless a vaccine is developed and/or people continue to practice safe(r) hygiene (wear a mask, gloves, and wash their hands!).
Unfortunately, there is further information concerning the possible moribundity of the Coronavirus for even patients in their late 30s (https://www.timesofisrael.com/coronavirus-causing-strokes-in-some-younger-patients-report/). Researchers have found that some patients in their late 30s, 40s, and 50 are dying of strokes, and that 4 % and 8% of patients in the 40s and 50s require hospilization. So, government officials need to think very carefully about how they open the economy and allow social interactions, even among younger people. Moreover, there is evidence that people can become infected more than once.
As Ronald Reagan was fond of saying: "Trust and Verify" (https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/10/opinion/trust-but-verify.html). In this case, the government needs to test as many people as it can, people who have an inkling of feeling ill should stay home, and those who go out need to keep their distance from others. Then, the economy can hopefully be reopened wisely, while protecting the most vulnerable (older population).
One organization trying to implement safe practices is the Israel Defense Force. We dropped our daughter at the induction center in Jerusalem, and we were not allowed to stay, but waved goodbye from a distance. She like the other young women came with large suitcases stuffed with enough underwear to last a month (I wouldn't want to be that first pair worn, or even the second...). I left the drop-off zone feeling like I had forgotten something. I couldn't figure out what that might be, since I hadn't exactly "forgotten" my daughter as we drove away.
We look forward to seeing her again, but I have to admit that it wasn't easy to wave goodbye (even if only for a month). When I returned home, I put my oatmeal in the wrong bowl, and almost put milk in my orange juice. Looking at newly taken picture of her in her army uniform, I wondered if parents every really see their children as they seem themselves? Or, even as others see them?
If I had my druthers, parents would live with their kids (and vice versa), but this isn't very practical and perhaps not very healthy over the long term. Still, if we're all in Israel, you can only go so far in any direction. Besides: when I got into this business of raising kids it wasn't so she could always be the sweet child she is, but with the hope that she would grow up to be independent, wise, and a good parent herself. So, who is to complain?
My wife, actually. She sent me for an-other hearing test. For some time now, she's been complaining that I don't hear her. I was was agreement (what else could I say), so I went for the test. Much to my surprise, they said my hearing is pretty much like it was the last time she sent me -- not much change (not perfect, but certainly within the range of expected range of sounds at my age). She professes to be happy with the news, but I am not so sure. The strange thing is that I never complain that she doesn't hear me. I sometimes think that she doesn't listen to me, but that is a different kettle of fish (https://literarydevices.net/a-different-kettle-of-fish/) entirely!
Barry Lynn
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Weather It Is (The Perfect Challah Recipe)
Good Afternoon:
I am sure that everyone has gotten used to the beautiful weather. In fact, the beautiful weather will continue into late Wednesday. However, a cool front will pass through Wednesday night with the possibility of showers, and then an unusually strong winter-like storm is forecast to move southward Friday and Shabbat. This storm will bring a chill to the air and local showers, as well as the possibility of thunderstorm. Perhaps, the weather will be in the news once again.
While everyone is speaking about the Coronavirus, I'd like to bring to your attention a couple of other viruses that are worth mentioning. In fact, they have been with us for quite some time, and there doesn't seem to be a treatment or a vaccine for them.
The first is the virus of hatred. It's called Hatrovirus, and it's thousands of years old, but infected the local Arab inhabitants about 100 years ago. Some people call it "anti-semitism" or Jew hatred. For instance, there has been ongoing coordination between the Palestinian and Israeli governments to fight the pandemic (https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-praises-excellent-israeli-palestinian-cooperation-in-fight-against-pandemic/). Yet, the Palestinian Prime Minister still found the time to "blame the Jews' for the need to cooperate at all (https://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-dismisses-warnings-to-cease-virus-incitement-campaign-against-israel/). On the other side, Hamas found the time to build a new hospital -- oops, I mean they found time to build a very long attack tunnel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reveals-how-its-winning-the-battle-against-hamass-gaza-attack-tunnels/). Of course, if you set your priorities right, you'll be sure to ask the Israeli government for ventilators (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-wants-ventilators-as-part-of-prisoner-swap-deal-report/)) so that tunnel builders can be tended to if needed.
The second is the virus of optimism. This OptoVirus appears to have infected the Israeli leadership (and even many Israelis) at the time of the Oslo Accords (1994), but returned even more virulently after the exit from Gaza. Most recently, Israel arranged for Qatar to again deliver money to Hamas for supposed dispersal to needy families (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-since-virus-emerged-in-gaza-banks-deliver-qatari-grants-to-poor/). I assume that these are the folks who would be better at studying at university (if there was one) than building tunnels. In the meantime, watch out for this virus because it causes insanity (https://professorbuzzkill.com/einstein-insanity-qnq/).
On the other hand, if not for this optimistic nature, who would have thought that the Jewish people could have risen from the ashes of the Holocaust? Quite frankly, the Jewish people were "infected" with optimism back when they decided it was time to leave Egypt.
On a lighter note: while I am sure that there are many people who missed out on their Passover trips and outings, there was one benefit that should be mentioned. There was a complete lack of pressure to do something. You see, in Israel, we have only one day off a week, and for the religious there are actually no days off. This means that when there is an opportunity to go somewhere, we MUST go somewhere.
It felt relaxing to not to have this pressure to go somewhere. It reminds me of Sunday's off when I was a kid, where I could decide to do something if I wanted to do something.
In the past year, we've actually had three "Sundays Off," or actually three election days. Why don't we have Sunday off (other than because of religious concerns about copying the non-Jewish world's "day of rest")? Or, why don't we have at least one day off a month, i.e, the week of the new month? It's because the manufacturing association says that the economy (really they) will lose money. Hence, even though we just imagined that we just came out of Egypt again, we're still slaves to the powers that run our economy (and lever the government). Thus, even though we are now supposed to be free men (and women) in our own land, we are actually slaves of sorts.
Of course, I know that these days were also days of stress, and it was great to read that the government will be "opening up" the economy. Besides getting people back to work, this means that there will be more pollution and more noise, an unfortunate byproduct of an functioning economy. While there is still time, I suggest that you take a moment and listen to the quiet. You might find that the quiet is filled with song. In fact, this is a great opportunity for even those with a small voice, or even an off tune tweet to find a mate. People have written about a potential baby boom about nine months from now, but one shouldn't overlook all the new young men who just may find their feathered sweetheart -- whose voices would have been unheard of in usual circumstances. It would be like what would have happened had I never come to Israel -- no blog, but especially no kids. So, keep an eye out for those birds.
We just finished Passover, and we're on our way to Shavuot. I had a thought that Passover -- while a joyous holiday -- is supposed to instill in us a feeling of humility. We eat Matza, which is a "bread" baked before it can become leavened, or full of hot air -- or false pride. In contrast, on Shavuot, when we have received the Torah, which provides us with the rules to live our lives as both religious and good people. We have a "right" to feel puffed up, so we eat Challot.
Here's a recipe for the Perfect Challah. It makes 1 Challah and 5 Challah Rolls. For a bread machine, add the ingredients in the order listed. For a mixer, add the yeast to the first 5 ingredients, and let sit for a few minutes to activate the yeast.
Here's a recipe for the Perfect Challah.
1) 1 1/3 cup water
2) 1/4 cup sugar
3) 1 Tb Honey
4) 2 Tb Canola Oil
5) 1 egg
6) 1 1/2 Tb Salt
7) 1 1/2 cups white flour
8) 1 cup whole wheat flour
9) 1 cup Spelt flour
10) 1 TB Gluten (or use high gluten white flour)
11) 2 1/2 tsp dry "instant yeast"
For a bread machine: add the first six ingredients, and the last ingredients afterwards on top.
Set to the dough setting, and let rise (around 1 1/2 hours total on the bread machine setting). When removing from the baking dish, use a bit of flour to prevent the dough from sticking to your hands.
For a mixer:
If you’ll be kneading in a mixer with a dough hook, combine wet and dry ingredients in separate bowls. Then add the wet ingredients to the mixer bowl on the bottom, followed by the dry ingredients. Operate the mixer with a dough hook, and start the timer when both wet and dry ingredients are combined. Knead with a dough hook for a maximum of 7 minutes, no more. The dough should be slightly stick. When removing the dough or kneading, coat hands with flour to keep the dough from sticking. If kneading by hand do not exceed 10 minutes. Let rise until double the size.
Continuing for both mixer and bread machine:
Divide into one large Challah and 5 rolls (about 2/3 & 1/3 of the dough). Brush with an egg mixed with oil, and sprinkle on toppings.
Heat your oven to a temperature that is ideal for yeast to propagate. This is about 90 degrees Fahrenheit or 30 degrees Celcius. Some say as much as 37 Celcius (97.8 Fahrenheit).
Let double in size again (about 30 minutes or so), and then cook at 180 Celcius for 30 minutes (in preheated oven).
To make more Challah than suggested (2 Challot and some rolls), add one more egg, 1/4 cup more liquid, and about 1 cup more flour. Check for consistency. The dough should be firm to the touch, but your finger should be able to indent it, without sticking to the dough.
I am sure that everyone has gotten used to the beautiful weather. In fact, the beautiful weather will continue into late Wednesday. However, a cool front will pass through Wednesday night with the possibility of showers, and then an unusually strong winter-like storm is forecast to move southward Friday and Shabbat. This storm will bring a chill to the air and local showers, as well as the possibility of thunderstorm. Perhaps, the weather will be in the news once again.
While everyone is speaking about the Coronavirus, I'd like to bring to your attention a couple of other viruses that are worth mentioning. In fact, they have been with us for quite some time, and there doesn't seem to be a treatment or a vaccine for them.
The first is the virus of hatred. It's called Hatrovirus, and it's thousands of years old, but infected the local Arab inhabitants about 100 years ago. Some people call it "anti-semitism" or Jew hatred. For instance, there has been ongoing coordination between the Palestinian and Israeli governments to fight the pandemic (https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-praises-excellent-israeli-palestinian-cooperation-in-fight-against-pandemic/). Yet, the Palestinian Prime Minister still found the time to "blame the Jews' for the need to cooperate at all (https://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-dismisses-warnings-to-cease-virus-incitement-campaign-against-israel/). On the other side, Hamas found the time to build a new hospital -- oops, I mean they found time to build a very long attack tunnel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reveals-how-its-winning-the-battle-against-hamass-gaza-attack-tunnels/). Of course, if you set your priorities right, you'll be sure to ask the Israeli government for ventilators (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-wants-ventilators-as-part-of-prisoner-swap-deal-report/)) so that tunnel builders can be tended to if needed.
The second is the virus of optimism. This OptoVirus appears to have infected the Israeli leadership (and even many Israelis) at the time of the Oslo Accords (1994), but returned even more virulently after the exit from Gaza. Most recently, Israel arranged for Qatar to again deliver money to Hamas for supposed dispersal to needy families (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-since-virus-emerged-in-gaza-banks-deliver-qatari-grants-to-poor/). I assume that these are the folks who would be better at studying at university (if there was one) than building tunnels. In the meantime, watch out for this virus because it causes insanity (https://professorbuzzkill.com/einstein-insanity-qnq/).
On the other hand, if not for this optimistic nature, who would have thought that the Jewish people could have risen from the ashes of the Holocaust? Quite frankly, the Jewish people were "infected" with optimism back when they decided it was time to leave Egypt.
On a lighter note: while I am sure that there are many people who missed out on their Passover trips and outings, there was one benefit that should be mentioned. There was a complete lack of pressure to do something. You see, in Israel, we have only one day off a week, and for the religious there are actually no days off. This means that when there is an opportunity to go somewhere, we MUST go somewhere.
It felt relaxing to not to have this pressure to go somewhere. It reminds me of Sunday's off when I was a kid, where I could decide to do something if I wanted to do something.
In the past year, we've actually had three "Sundays Off," or actually three election days. Why don't we have Sunday off (other than because of religious concerns about copying the non-Jewish world's "day of rest")? Or, why don't we have at least one day off a month, i.e, the week of the new month? It's because the manufacturing association says that the economy (really they) will lose money. Hence, even though we just imagined that we just came out of Egypt again, we're still slaves to the powers that run our economy (and lever the government). Thus, even though we are now supposed to be free men (and women) in our own land, we are actually slaves of sorts.
Of course, I know that these days were also days of stress, and it was great to read that the government will be "opening up" the economy. Besides getting people back to work, this means that there will be more pollution and more noise, an unfortunate byproduct of an functioning economy. While there is still time, I suggest that you take a moment and listen to the quiet. You might find that the quiet is filled with song. In fact, this is a great opportunity for even those with a small voice, or even an off tune tweet to find a mate. People have written about a potential baby boom about nine months from now, but one shouldn't overlook all the new young men who just may find their feathered sweetheart -- whose voices would have been unheard of in usual circumstances. It would be like what would have happened had I never come to Israel -- no blog, but especially no kids. So, keep an eye out for those birds.
We just finished Passover, and we're on our way to Shavuot. I had a thought that Passover -- while a joyous holiday -- is supposed to instill in us a feeling of humility. We eat Matza, which is a "bread" baked before it can become leavened, or full of hot air -- or false pride. In contrast, on Shavuot, when we have received the Torah, which provides us with the rules to live our lives as both religious and good people. We have a "right" to feel puffed up, so we eat Challot.
Here's a recipe for the Perfect Challah. It makes 1 Challah and 5 Challah Rolls. For a bread machine, add the ingredients in the order listed. For a mixer, add the yeast to the first 5 ingredients, and let sit for a few minutes to activate the yeast.
Here's a recipe for the Perfect Challah.
1) 1 1/3 cup water
2) 1/4 cup sugar
3) 1 Tb Honey
4) 2 Tb Canola Oil
5) 1 egg
6) 1 1/2 Tb Salt
7) 1 1/2 cups white flour
8) 1 cup whole wheat flour
9) 1 cup Spelt flour
10) 1 TB Gluten (or use high gluten white flour)
11) 2 1/2 tsp dry "instant yeast"
For a bread machine: add the first six ingredients, and the last ingredients afterwards on top.
Set to the dough setting, and let rise (around 1 1/2 hours total on the bread machine setting). When removing from the baking dish, use a bit of flour to prevent the dough from sticking to your hands.
For a mixer:
If you’ll be kneading in a mixer with a dough hook, combine wet and dry ingredients in separate bowls. Then add the wet ingredients to the mixer bowl on the bottom, followed by the dry ingredients. Operate the mixer with a dough hook, and start the timer when both wet and dry ingredients are combined. Knead with a dough hook for a maximum of 7 minutes, no more. The dough should be slightly stick. When removing the dough or kneading, coat hands with flour to keep the dough from sticking. If kneading by hand do not exceed 10 minutes. Let rise until double the size.
Continuing for both mixer and bread machine:
Divide into one large Challah and 5 rolls (about 2/3 & 1/3 of the dough). Brush with an egg mixed with oil, and sprinkle on toppings.
Heat your oven to a temperature that is ideal for yeast to propagate. This is about 90 degrees Fahrenheit or 30 degrees Celcius. Some say as much as 37 Celcius (97.8 Fahrenheit).
Let double in size again (about 30 minutes or so), and then cook at 180 Celcius for 30 minutes (in preheated oven).
To make more Challah than suggested (2 Challot and some rolls), add one more egg, 1/4 cup more liquid, and about 1 cup more flour. Check for consistency. The dough should be firm to the touch, but your finger should be able to indent it, without sticking to the dough.
Barry Lynn
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