Weather It Is (The Plot Deepens)

Good Afternoon:

We've had a nice winter day and Thursday's weather should even be a bit nicer: even warmer with lots of sunshine and continued light winds.

However, our weather map will take a turn towards winter, which should begin in the north late Friday and spread to the center of the country by late Saturday afternoon. The winds will also pick up and there could be some wind gusts above advisory levels.  Rain amounts from Shabbat into Monday morning should generally be between 25-50 mm in many locations.

Looking further ahead, the more significant system we spoke about the other day is starting to become better resolved by the global ensemble model.  This involves a a ridge of high pressure building into central Europe with extremely cold air dropping down from western Russia, potentially forming a deep winter trough and winter storm in the eastern Mediterranean.

Unlike the approaching storm, which will approach from the west, the energy for this storm will approach from the north. This would preserve the unusually cold air features of this very winter-like system, as it will be passing over land instead of sea.

Since last night, the forecasts probabilities of a wintertime (snow) storm have increased from about 20% to 35%.  Concurrently, all the ensemble members now show a 500 mb pattern indicating trough formation in our area, meaning that the models have latched onto a signal that could mean a return to whiteness for us. The timing for this system is Tuesday into Thursday of next week.

Yet, a 35% chance is not a certainty; in fact, it is less than half. On the other hand, the area of the world from which this system will originate is not well sampled (observed), so any signal (especially of this probability 9 days in advance) is worth watching.

One might wish for greater certainty, but half of the weather excitement of living in Israel is waiting for whatever weather event "mother-nature" has in store.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn