Weather It Is (A Little Bit of This and That)

Good Evening:

I had a rather uncomfortable experience today.  I ran into someone who remembers a forecast I made last winter that was not correct.  Fortunately, I remembered it too, so I was ready with my ready made excuses -- like sometimes even a meteorologist gets caught up in the excitement of a potential snow event and can overlook important details.  Actually, this was really more an issue of making better use of the weather information I had at the time, which I've since done (quite well, actually).

Really, I'd like to never have to make an excuse.  We strive for 100% accuracy.  Of course, 100% accuracy actually means that the probability of weather event is provided correctly -- as we never have a complete picture of the weather.  For instance, a 80% of 10 mm of rain in 24 hours means that eight of ten times such should happen when such a probability is given. This would actually be a "100 %" accurate forecast.  More precisely, it means that the probability distribution of the observations should fit the probability distribution of the forecasts.

The weather today was actually quite spectacular, and tomorrow's should be as well. However, there is a strong mid-level shortwave approaching Tuesday night.  The cooling mid-level temperatures combined with some low and mid-level moisture will bring the possibility of some showers into our area.  At the moment, the probability is low, but it is the kind of situation where small scale (hard to forecast) variability (caused by localised changes in topography and winds) can lead to small-scale showers or thundershowers.

The less than perfect weather should last into Wednesday afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up a bit on Thursday and Friday and the nice weather should last to the end of Hag.

Yet, changes are afoot -- and the circulation pattern is transitioning to a more winter-like pattern as we progress towards the middle of the month.

Barry Lynn