Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Weather It Is (Does It Feel A Bit Chilly?)

Good Evening:

Does it feel a bit cool?  Last night I heard someone exclaim: "It's winter out there!"

Of course, everyone knows it's not winter, and that August has been (in recent memory) full of hot days.

Yet, can you really argue when someone says: "it's winter out there."  After all, people don't go around saying: "it's winter out there," in the middle of August -- just for fun.

So, what's going on?  It's not obvious, but our cool weather may have something to do where we are in the current cycle of sunspots.

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/761581379121446912/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

In fact, the "Commodity Group" is suggesting that the upcoming sunspot minimum might be more severe than the previous that occurred from 2008 -- 2010, as we head into a cycle that was known in the past as  the "Dalton Minimum."  This occurred from from 1790 to 1830.

While the year 1816 was known as the year without a summer, it has been suggested that the combination of a volcano eruption and minimum solar sunspot (or solar output) at that time were the combination of events that led to the unusually cold temperatures.

In any case, the warm up we saw in the model forecasts  as a possibility for this mid-week has instead  turned to the cooler forecast solutions, which are suppose to last all week, and then intensify from Sunday onwards.  By intensify, I don't mean to be "hot," but on the unusually cool side of things.

The irony is that the weather maps looks a typical summertime weather map, but temperatures don't reflect this. Moreover, as we head into next week low pressure developing over Turkey and the Black Sea will push even cooler weather our way.  The weather map will then resemble a bit more like fall then summer.

Might there be an upturn at the end of August.  Yes.

Does the minimum in sun spot activity imply a snowy winter? Possibly, as many times in the Jerusalem area and Gush Etzion it rains at just 1 or 2 C.  A little bit of cooling here or there and we could see a bit more snow than usual.

Lastly, the ocean circulation as El-Nino/La-Nina will be turning to the "La-Nina" (cooling) side in the Pacific Ocean, which also help to reduce global temperatures.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn


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