Weather It Is (Stormy Times)

Good Afternoon:

While the weather outside is pretty tranquil, there is a cool breeze and a definite chill in the air. You know things are serious when my Wife asks if it is going to snow.

Unlike me, she is a native Israel and very "in-tune" with the weather -- so long as she doesn't get confused by anything I might tell her.

There will be a series of storms in the next couple of weeks as storms move in from our northwest, before exiting to our east.  There is even a hint of potentially a more significant storm as we move into the last week of December, with cold air arriving directly from the north.  We've been seeing various members of the GEFS show temperatures below freezing at 850 mb the last week of December, which is necessary for snow to fall in the central mountains.  In fact, you can see exactly that on the enclosed graph that shows the 850 mb temperatures over the next couple of weeks.  Note that all members of the ensemble (each member is a line) indicate that the temperatures will be falling through the first half of the two week period (this coming week).  Then, about half the members remain pretty much the same, but a quarter warm up and a quarter of them get even colder with some forecasts going below freezing. (Actually, the first week of January also looks to be cold, based on the CFS (the Climate Forecast Systems Model)).

So, are you an optimist or a pessimist, and how shall we define that?  Perspective and historical background is everything.  "Some like it cold, some like it hot, and some like it in the pot, 9 days old."

In any case, it is interesting to note the perspective of Saeb Erekat, the so-called foreign minister of the "State of Palestine." Responding to Australia recognizing "West Jerusalem" as Israel's capital he said:  "“All of Jerusalem remains a final status issue for negotiations, while East Jerusalem, under international law, is an integral part of the occupied Palestinian territory"  (italics added) see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/erekat-slams-australian-recognition-of-west-jerusalem-as-israels-capital/).  What he says might be construed as a contradiction, or he simply means "what is mine is mine and what is yours is mine" (https://torah.org/learning/pirkei-avos-chapter5-13/). It's amazing how well Mr. Erekat knows Jewish religious texts, for someone who denies that Jerusalem was ever part of Jewish history or that the Jewish Temples ever existed. Or perhaps he is just a wicked man, as so aptly described in Pirkei Avot (Ethics of our Fathers).

Barry Lynn