Weather It Is (Rainy Weather Continues)

Good Evening:

It's not often that I get to bask in the accolades of my admirers -- there aren't many and they don't all live in the same place.  Still, it was nice to know that I've done a good job this year both forecasting the weather and arranging for quite a number of stormy days (we've got to sell an interesting product).

Fortunately, like a hitter on a hot streak, the rainy and wintry weather is forecast to continue through this coming week.  The next substantial rain will result from a large amplified ridge (over western Europe) combining with a deep trough over the Mediterranean.  It should arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday, and may be followed by another storm early the following week (but there is also the possibility that warmer and drier air could end our rainy streak).

It's raining while I write this blog, and it has generally been raining over a large portion of the country from about Jerusalem northward for a couple of days.  You probably heard that over 150 mm of rain fell in places closer to the coast, flooding streets and even buildings.  What was interesting about this storm was just how long it basically stayed in one location, with persistent heavy rain areas just north of areas with lighter amounts of rain (we had "just" 25 mm).

One can see below a forecast from our ensemble, which showed heavy rain falling within a 3 hour period Thursday night from Ashdod north to Netanya.  The forecast correctly depicted the sharp north to south gradient of the area of heavy rain, and it did so throughout the storm.

This is reassuring, and points out the usefulness of ensemble (multi-forecasts) that can correctly predict small scale, but very important differences in rainfall.

Have a good week, and Happy Chanukah.

Barry Lynn