Weather It Is (Stormy, But Then A Break)

Good Morning:

The  Winter Storm rages on, although the cold is not too severe, as snow has fallen only on the Hermon.  Nevertheless, the IMS reported that this storm broke single day rain records, consistent with our forecasts.  There has also been large amounts of lightning and hail/graupel associated with thunderstorms invigorated by desert dust.

Prior, we spoke about a possible storm this coming Sunday or Monday. However, this storm is now forecast to move south of Crete, southward into Egypt, before moving our way later in the week. As it does so, there is the possibility that a reinforcing shot of cold air will bring a redevelopment and another cold winter storm.

By the way, both the Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have become strongly positive, meaning that the coldest air is located over the artic and polar regions, where it typically was, but in the last several years was not. The AO and NAO are forecast to remain positive through January. The negative AO and negative NAO have been one manifestation of the unusually cold and snowy US winters, and rainy but relatively mild weather here.  For us, this reversal opens the possibility that our winter will revert more to normal, with an occasional deep trough that could bring snow to the mountains of Jerusalem sometime this coming month.

Happy Chanukah and Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn