Weather It Is (The Roses Are Still Blooming, But)

Good Late Morning:

For the last few days, our weather group ("Israel Winter Weather") has been discussing model forecast differences between the GFS (American  model) and the ECMWF (European Model).  Both are forecasting a rather significant storm to affect our area Friday into Sunday, with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Both are forecasting this storm to dive to our west, south of Crete.  This means that the cold air originally associated with the storm will moderately warm as it heads our way over the Mediterranean Sea.  Hence, even though temperatures in the lower atmosphere (850 mb) will be close to zero at the higher elevations, only snow mixed with rain is possible (but not likely).

The model differences concern the positioning of the next weather system to follow next week.  The ECMWF has the storm moving in from our north while the GFS had the storm again taking a more westerly track.  Each of these models were generally supported by their ensemble counterparts.

Our group identified the forecast disparities as being due to differences in the continued development of this weekend's storm as it passes east of us.  If it maintains its strength, it would help to direct the next storm further eastward to arrive more directly from the north. If not, we would have a repeat of this weekend's rain storm.

Regardless,  both model indicate the possibility of another significant storm next week, but there is far from any certainty of just how cold it will get.

It's easy to just ask: "what will the weather be?" without accounting for uncertainty in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere (especially in far northern areas where our coldest storms originate).  There is also model forecast uncertainty associated with physical algorithms that describe the land, sea, and atmosphere, as well as uncertainty associated with chaotic behavior caused by the need to solve complex non-linear equations using finite differencing on a computer that necessitates round-off error (at the limit of precision of the computer).

The result is that we can usually see several days into the future, but beyond this time frame the forecast becomes much more uncertain.  In fact, the only time I remember a winter storm that was apparent in the forecasts even 10-12 days in advance was the very significant snowstorm of December 2013.  In this case, the circulation patterns that led to this storm were so strong and well defined that they were resolvable by the forecasts even so far in advance.

People actually live with uncertainty in their lives all the time. We make many decisions based on hunches or optimism. However, given the chance they will seek certainty even when it will cause potentially personal harm.  One such case is the decision to be vaccinated or not. The vaccine against measles, etc, is very effective and complications are very rare. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307131455.htm; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html; (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/mmr-vaccine.html).  Yet, around 140,000 unvaccinated children died of measles in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide). Unfortunately, there are "supposedly" reputable organizations that suggest otherwise, (https://www.globalresearch.ca/measles-vaccines-kill-more-people-than-measles-cdc-data-proves/5429736), overlooking the fact that the reason there have been relatively few deaths from measles (percentage wise) is the high rate of vaccination!

Recently, the Time of Israel noted that this flu season is especially virulent and deadly (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-low-on-flu-shots-as-seriously-ill-set-to-overtake-past-2-years-combined/). In fact, my father remembers his Aunt telling him about the Spanish Flu, which killed more people than those that died in World War I.  Folks would get on the trolley as living beings, but be dead before they got off. One reader of the Times article commented that the strains of flu change too quickly for the vaccines to be effective, and suggested to readers that they instead get a good night sleep and eat plenty of garlic.  While it is true that each year's Flu vaccine is based in part on guesswork (for which strains will be present the coming winter), important studies have documented the effectiveness of the Flu vaccine as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm).

So, save yourself and those you will infect from being a victim of the Flu: get vaccinated!

Sincerely and Happy New Year,

Barry Lynn