Weather It Is (Weather Notes)

Good Afternoon:

Possible heavy rains and thunderstorms, especially Shabbat.

The global forecast, upon which we base our high resolution forecast, has been quite inconsistent this week.

One possible reason is that the global forecasts are predicting a change in the North Atlantic Oscillation  (NAO) as well as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but in opposite directions. 

A negative implies that a trough of low pressure will build much to our west.  A negative AO implies that cold air will remain locked up to the north, at least north of North America.  That means that some of this cold air is available to us, as storms moving southward from the cold reaches of Siberia.

In the next few days, two systems will interact. One to our west and one dropping down from the north.  If the one from the north succeeds to drop down from the north, it will lead to heavy rain and thunderstorms on Shabbat.

In the meanwhile, the storm to our west will slide slightly eastward, bringing some showers and possible Thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow (Friday) morning.

The lightning occurring with this western storm can be seen on the attached video.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn