Weather It Is (Ups and Downs)

 Good Afternoon:

Some nice and warm late fall weather, followed by a return to winter weather next week.

A weak wave of low pressure passed through our area Tuesday night.  It managed to stick around a bit longer than expected, bringing with some beautiful cloud formations. 

For quite some time I've worried that I might be soon out of the weather business.  As previously mentioned, the forecast for this winter was for much below normal precipitation amounts.  Since precipitation (and even the possibility of snow) is all people really care about here, what would a weatherman (or person) do in such a scenario?  

Another problem has been the lack of data feeding into the global models, as there are far fewer airplane flights than before the pandemic.  This includes the suspension of our (Bet Degan) radiosonde because of budget problems.   Last week, the global forecast was consistently off -- until the rains and thunderstorms arrived Friday night and Shabbat.  It got so bad that my daughter asked my wife what the weather would be, as if I wasn't sitting right next to her. 

The good news is that the weather is refusing to cooperate with the seasonal forecast or even the monthly forecast from the CFS V2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecMonInd1.gif).  In fact, some approaching thunderstorms brought so much rain the fish could be seen swimming with umbrellas.

True, the next few days should see increasingly warm and sunny weather as a short ridge of high pressure builds ahead of an approaching storm.   But, the nice weather should last only into Sunday of next week, before the arrival of a strong cold front.

The storm and its accompanying cold front should barrel into our area from the Northwest, intensifying as cold air descends from the north.  The rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms should last from about Monday into Wednesday or even Thursday.  While not a winter storm more normally associated with late December or January, the rain amounts from this storm should go a

long way towards casting further doubt on the seasonal forecast.

Barry Lynn