Weather It Is (Change Will Come)

 

Good afternoon:

People ask me if it will ever rain again.  When I say not yet, they look at me like they want to shoot the messenger. However, as explained here (https://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/3/messages/520.html), it's really not "fair" to blame the person who simply delivers the message.  Also, keep in mind that the weather has been really nice -- for playing tennis, going for a run, having a picnic in the park, etc.  

So, what's the problem?  The problem is that people really do blame me for the too nice weather.  Perhaps they see our forecasts, and when they "come true" they think it's because of the forecast instead of tomorrow's weather itself simply becoming today's weather. 

So, what is going on?  One problem is that the North Atlantic Oscillation is now negative (https://www.britannica.com/science/North-Atlantic-Oscillation), which implies that there is a strong ridge-low couplet over Greenland and the far eastern Atlantic ocean.  This leaves us on the warm side of the ridge. 

However, there is also a forecast for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ( https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming).  The warming leads to changes in the circulation pattern (especially in the Atlantic ocean).  When it interacts with the NAO, there can also be far off ripples in the circulation pattern.  Moreover, it can lock in the NAO.  

As suggested on forecasts for the mid-month period, though, the position of the trough over the Atlantic may be placed further west than a typical NAO.  Additionally, analog analysis (comparing the circulation pattern now to those of past years) suggest that atmospheric ripples associated with the SSW could lead to unusually cold weather in the eastern Mediterranean, at least long enough to make winter felt.  

So, expect a drop off in temperatures in mid-month, accompanied by a period of rain, if not rain and snow. 

I'd like to add a few comments about the "situation." Someone sent me an article proclaiming that the "cure' for the Coronavirus is worse than disease itself (https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/12/21/follow-the-science-covid-lockdowns-kill-suicides-exceed-covid-deaths-drug-overdoses-spike-delayed-surgeries-delayed-cancer-heart-treatments-more-death/).  While it is correct to say that the lockdown has impacted social health, it is incorrect to blame the lockdown on hospital delays for other illnesses.  Rather, the delays are part of treatment plan for the illness (there are only so many doctors and beds to go around), just as there have been an increase in deaths from secondary illnesses exacerbated by the Coronavirus-19 illness.  Lastly, were we to continue "business as usual," would there be 85 million ill and almost 2 million dead, or would there more likely be 1 billion ill and 20 million dead (about half those of the Spanish Flu)?

It is valid to ask about indirect deaths due to the Coronavirus, but incorrect to compare the consequences to actual direct deaths, since the indirect deaths are a result of society's efforts to prevent an even greater calamity.  The article waves a flag, but doesn't let you think long enough and critically enough to see that it's really a smokescreen for radical thinking.

I need to end with one more comment:  there are those who are rightfully fearful about a new vaccine technology (mRNA vaccines), but this is the reason the vaccines were tested in stages (to ensure they work, but are also safe).  But, then there a group of people who say that since the vaccine is based on new technology that it shouldn't be used -- or at least wait to see how your friends fare).  (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html#:~:text=mRNA%20vaccines%20contain%20material%20from,genetic%20material%20from%20the%20vaccine).  Basically, the technology works the same way a virus works, and hence therefore must be dangerous. 

However, this line of reasoning ignores two relevant facts that favor getting vaccinated as soon as possible: 1) the vaccine works like a virus to infect cells, but only to produce a harmless protein that mimics the virus, but is not the virus itself (giving our immune system time to prepare for an actual attemp by the virus to infect us);  2) the virus, which infects our cells the same way as the vaccine does, is actually the virus, and we know just how terrible this is (https://www.timesofisrael.com/875084-i-let-my-guard-down-and-got-covid-19-this-is-what-its-like/).

So, be careful and get vaccinated!

Barry Lynn