Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

 Good Afternoon:

Gale force winds expected Thursday.  Heavy rains and flooding are also possible. 

We've upgraded our weather forecast system, so there may be some subtle, but important improvements in the forecast. 

Last Monday we spoke about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that was forecast to shake up our weather pattern.  Based on analog analysis of past years, it was thought that it would lead to a strengthening North Atlantic Oscillation, leaving us in a continuing dry pattern.  It was also noted that the sudden warming could lead to a temporary cold spell.  Alas, the weather had other ideas. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation has not been as negative or as strong as forecast, and it has created an opportunity for us to transition to a much rainier and wetter pattern. This pattern will position a ridge of high pressure east of Greenland, allowing a trough to build over eastern Europe, tapping into some very cold air over Siberia. 

As we move into the second half of this week, our early "spring" weather will come to an end, and winds will become near gale, or even gale (> 62 km/h).  As noted in our Israel Winter Weather  Forum, the rainy pattern should last at least several days, if not into the last week of January.

There is a small chance of snow about 10 days from now; otherwise, snow should periodically fall on the Golan.

As an aside: those who deny that climate change is occurring because of the release of greenhouse gases do admit that the world is warming.  However, they claim that this is a good thing, suggesting that a warmer world will open up additional locations for agriculture, for example.  However, this minimizes the potential disruption to current farming practices, as well as opening the door for pests/fungi to establish themselves in otherwise temperate climates.  At least this is the story the Mosquito told me before I whacked my first January mosquito ever. It hasn't been fun catching flies, and I am still waiting for the tree outside our front to actually lose its leaves.  It and many of us are a bit confused -- and hoping that winter arrives this Wednesday night and Thursday.

Barry Lynn