Weather It Is (Big Changes on the Way)

 Good Evening:

Our very pleasant late fall weather will soon become fall-past. Instead, winter will arrive with alacrity. While today many folk were out and about without jackets, that will not be the case as we move into Tuesday and even during the next two weeks. In fact, there is a twenty percent chance of snow -- based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast Model (GEFS) -- sometime mid next week.  Moreover, forecasts 3 to 5 weeks out show the winter-like weather continuing.

So, what's changed?  Well, I've been under a lot of pressure about the continuing nice weather.  While people I speak to appreciate my efforts (they're having weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, or even just taking a walk outside), the nice weather just doesn't "sit right" with them.  Also, to be honest with you, it really bothers my wife, who finds herself both adding clothes and shedding clothes all within just a few hours time. Mornings are chilly, but afternoons not, and what is someone supposed to do -- bring a suitcase to work?  I mean, does one have to wear boots in the morning, but change to sandals in the afternoon?  Quite frankly, I'm not bothered at all, but the fact that my wife is bothered does bother me, if not just for the fact that she expects me to do something about it.

So, I am. 

Pulling in all of my contacts, favors, and contacting as many friends I can find, we're arranging for La Nina to be the dominant phase of the El-Nino/La-Nina oscillation (cold versus warm eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures).  For us, this means that we're more likely that the North Atlantic Oscillation will be in its positive phase   This means that an "Omega" block should persist over an extended period of time, exemplified by relatively higher pressure over Greenland and lower pressure over southern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean.  For us, this suggests a turn to colder and wetter weather.  If conditions are just right, we'll see snow here late next week in the Jerusalem mountains.  Back in December 2013, they were exceptionally "right."  But, keep in mind that when we're in a wet pattern (like we're discussing), it's usually for just rain. 

Have a good week,

Barry Lynn