Weather It Is (Winter Weather)

  Good Afternoon:

A storm will be moving in from the west, and will linger for a few days.  

Temperatures with this storm are very cold aloft, and near freezing in the lower atmosphere (850 mb level).  Yet, at the surface we're about 1 degree Celsius too warm for seeing any snow with this storm in the central mountain region. Instead, there should be plenty of heavy rain on Monday with ice-pellets.  Ice pellets may fall heavily enough at times to make the roads a bit slippery.  But, temperatures above freezing means that the ice will melt quickly.  Winds will be unusually strong, consistent with a moderate or "near gale."  Snow is likely on the Hermon and higher peaks of the Golan.

It looks like that there will be two periods of heavy rain. One tomorrow afternoon and then late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Our high resolution WRF forecast is predicting generally 25 to 50 mm of rain from south central to northern Israel, with localized amounts of greater than 100 mm. Right now, the heaviest rain is forecast for the central areas, including Jerusalem.

The NAO is switching to a negative value, and this looks like this will hold until the end of the month, before a general return to positive values in January.  So, after this upcoming storm, we may be taking a week or two week break from any unusually cold weather.

Batten down you hatches or at least move items that can blow away to protected places,

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn