Sunday, December 19, 2021

Weather It Is (Winter Weather)

  Good Afternoon:

A storm will be moving in from the west, and will linger for a few days.  

Temperatures with this storm are very cold aloft, and near freezing in the lower atmosphere (850 mb level).  Yet, at the surface we're about 1 degree Celsius too warm for seeing any snow with this storm in the central mountain region. Instead, there should be plenty of heavy rain on Monday with ice-pellets.  Ice pellets may fall heavily enough at times to make the roads a bit slippery.  But, temperatures above freezing means that the ice will melt quickly.  Winds will be unusually strong, consistent with a moderate or "near gale."  Snow is likely on the Hermon and higher peaks of the Golan.

It looks like that there will be two periods of heavy rain. One tomorrow afternoon and then late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Our high resolution WRF forecast is predicting generally 25 to 50 mm of rain from south central to northern Israel, with localized amounts of greater than 100 mm. Right now, the heaviest rain is forecast for the central areas, including Jerusalem.

The NAO is switching to a negative value, and this looks like this will hold until the end of the month, before a general return to positive values in January.  So, after this upcoming storm, we may be taking a week or two week break from any unusually cold weather.

Batten down you hatches or at least move items that can blow away to protected places,

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Weather It Is (Big Changes on the Way)

 Good Evening:

Our very pleasant late fall weather will soon become fall-past. Instead, winter will arrive with alacrity. While today many folk were out and about without jackets, that will not be the case as we move into Tuesday and even during the next two weeks. In fact, there is a twenty percent chance of snow -- based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast Model (GEFS) -- sometime mid next week.  Moreover, forecasts 3 to 5 weeks out show the winter-like weather continuing.

So, what's changed?  Well, I've been under a lot of pressure about the continuing nice weather.  While people I speak to appreciate my efforts (they're having weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, or even just taking a walk outside), the nice weather just doesn't "sit right" with them.  Also, to be honest with you, it really bothers my wife, who finds herself both adding clothes and shedding clothes all within just a few hours time. Mornings are chilly, but afternoons not, and what is someone supposed to do -- bring a suitcase to work?  I mean, does one have to wear boots in the morning, but change to sandals in the afternoon?  Quite frankly, I'm not bothered at all, but the fact that my wife is bothered does bother me, if not just for the fact that she expects me to do something about it.

So, I am. 

Pulling in all of my contacts, favors, and contacting as many friends I can find, we're arranging for La Nina to be the dominant phase of the El-Nino/La-Nina oscillation (cold versus warm eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures).  For us, this means that we're more likely that the North Atlantic Oscillation will be in its positive phase   This means that an "Omega" block should persist over an extended period of time, exemplified by relatively higher pressure over Greenland and lower pressure over southern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean.  For us, this suggests a turn to colder and wetter weather.  If conditions are just right, we'll see snow here late next week in the Jerusalem mountains.  Back in December 2013, they were exceptionally "right."  But, keep in mind that when we're in a wet pattern (like we're discussing), it's usually for just rain. 

Have a good week,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Weather It Is (Summer Ends...)

 Good Afternoon:

Our summer-like weather (or is it the new "Fall?") should end late Tuesday. Wednesday will usher in much colder air, especially at lower levels. The 500 mb ("upper") level shows only low humidity, so we should expect showery weather to accompany the cold air intrusion. Keep in mind that a dry upper level leads to evaporative cooling, which may destabilize the atmosphere. Combined with the warm sea, there could be some thunderstorms as well. Temperatures should remain cool over the remainder of Chanukah. The global ensemble forecast shows a small chance for snow in the middle of December.

Sincerely, Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Weather It Is (Storm Arriving)

 Shavua Tov:

A storm moving south to north will pass us by tonight and tomorrow.  The moisture with this storm is constrained to the middle and upper atmosphere, and rainfall should be light, at most.  Dust levels and haze should lower as we move into Monday.

The winds will slowly shift to the west as the week progresses, and then to the northwest, as cold air moves in on a moisture stream.  A very significant storm is being forecast by the global ensemble models for Shabbat and the beginning of next week, which means that there should be plenty of atmospheric lift to produce heavy precipitation. 

The generally cool or even cold temperatures are likely, but not certain, to continue to the last week of the month.

Chodesh Tov!

Thursday, October 28, 2021

Weather It Is (Bad Interview)

 Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly nice -- thanks to a ridge of high pressure that will settle over our area.  While there could be some clouds and even showers early next week, the weather will be on the mild side as the coming week moves from beginning to end. 

Early the following week (or the second week of November), there is a 50% chance that the weather will turn sharply colder.  Even so, no major rain storms are yet indicated.

In this interview, Dr. Harvey Hirsch and his interviewer (Mr. Avi Abelow) make a number of misleading statements, either directly or indirectly. While I didn't listen to all of the interviews, I did researched the claims I heard.  Here is my rebuttal.

First, the conversation implies that it is better to rely on early treatment rather than the vaccine. However, Dr. Hirsch admits that the treatment is 75% effective.  The implication is that a 25% death rate is acceptable, in lieu of the vaccine.  There is a claim that the vaccine is dangerous, experimental -- even though it has been officially approved by the FDA.  Moreover, considering the number of people who have received the vaccine, one should ask: where are all the injured, maimed, and dead?  They should be overflowing our hospitals, but they are not.  In fact, vaccinated people are less likely to die of any cause. 

Regarding treatments.  There are studies that claim a reduction in hospital stays and deaths when Ivermectin is used. Here, the results were uncertain.

The FDA claims, we're told, that Ivermectin is for horses. In fact, the FDA claimed that there are different forms of the medicine and that the form for animals could be very detrimental to human health.

Regarding Hydroxychloroquine, it was not found to be effective.

A recent study suggests that an antidepressant effectively reduces hospitalization.

Dr. Risch notes that these medicines should be given early to be effective.  However. coronaviruses have evolved to evade immune responses. This means that the virus can proliferate in the body before there is any reason to suspect one is sick (rendering early treatment inapplicable). 

The interviewer and interviewee claim that doctors and hospitals are not allowed to give inexpensive medicines because the hospitals make more money from expensive medicines.  We are told of a brave few (hundreds, thousands?) who are rebelling against the tyranny of the system.  However, hospital stays cost the hospitals and insurance companies money.  Oh, but this is less expensive than end of life care.  One can only add so many absurdities. 

Another claim is that the death rate is just 1%.  In fact, the death rate in the US is 2%.  Moreover, the deathrate varies by age. For those over age 50, my previous blog showed that it ranges from about 2 to 20% (rising with age). Hence, to suggest that the virus is not dangerous is misleading.  It's also misleading because typical flu mortality rates are just 1/4 of that.

Last, the claim is made that big pharmaceutical companies control government policy, and this is the reason that governments around the world are "scaring" people into being vaccinated.  When I asked for evidence, none was provided.  Also, when one accepts a conspiracy theory, one needs to ask yourself, would the governments of the United States, Europe, England, Canada, Australia all be under the influence of the Cabal of pharmaceutical companies.  Yet, only one company, Pfizer, has been most widely used within. Are the others hoping for a slice of the pie?  I know that lobbyists can influence policies, but there are many and they compete against each other.  Might it be more believable if I told you that Spectre is the Cabal really controlling our lives?

I do not claim to refute all claims within, but these struck me as the most grievous. 

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, October 17, 2021

Weather It Is (Don't Mislead)

 Good Morning:


Much cooler air is moving in to our area today.  There will be some clouds and sprinkles.  However, heavy rain is not expected, even though temperatures will be the coolest of the season. 

The cool weather should remain with us for about a week's time.  The Global Ensemble Forecast System's predictions for the last week in October suggest that seasonal weather with a chance of showers will be on tap for us.  However, there is also about a 25% chance we'll end on a much warmer note.

Otherwise...

Where Numbers Lie

 The Israeli People`s Committee website and reports give the appearance of authority. They’ve composed the Report of Adverse Events Related to the Corona Vaccine, May 2021 and conclude that: “Never has a vaccine injured so many.”

In my opinion: this document misleads, and has the potential to cause harm to those who take its conclusions at face-value.

According to the authors’ assessment, it is possible to estimate that the number of deaths in Israel, which have occurred in proximity after the vaccination… at about 1600-1700 people.” Furthermore, based on direct reports to their website, they composed a table that displays both deaths and other serious or non-lethal side effects attributed to the Coronavirus vaccine.

 They write that “We found a statistically significant correlation between the daily mortality data and the daily vaccine data during January-March 2021.”  However, they do not note, even once, that the mortality occurred within the context of the Pandemic (0/0 citations within).

 

Their “2016 additional reports refer to a wide and multi-system range of adverse events that occurred in proximity after vaccination [detailed in Table 6]”, without the context of how many so-called adverse events would occur due to other causes.

 In fact, by composing a table (below) for comparison based on United States data of Coronavirus-19 related cases, versus number of Coronavirus related deaths, and presenting those numbers against those of the committee, one can conclude that the vaccine appears eminently safe (besides being effective). For instance, based on data from “Statista,” the mortality rate in all ages from the virus is much higher than from The Israeli People’s Committee.   Based on the United States Social Security Adminstration’s Actuarial Table from 2019, the risk of death in any10 year period from natural (or other causes) is much, much higher than the risk of death from the Vaccine.  This means that to attribute all reported deaths due to the vaccine in any 10-day period ignores all other reasons for dying, which are (unfortunately) much more prevalent.

Moreover, even if we accept that the administration of 15+ million doses was associated with 1650 deaths, this is far lower than the almost 8000 deaths due to the virus. In fact, if one were to normalize the populations that have received one dose (6.2 million have received at least one dose while 1.3 million have been so-far infected), then (all else equal), Israel would be facing almost 40,000 deaths without the vaccine. 

 I conclude: never has a published document been so misleading or potentially dangerous for those who refrain from being vaccinated because of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Comparison of Mortality Rates from Covid-19 versus The Israel People’s Committee estimate of deaths from the vaccine.  The number, for example of 1:10,000 means that 1 out of 10,000 people in that age group die from the disease.  

Age Bracket

US Cases

US Reported Deaths




US Calculated Mortality Rates

The Israeli People’s Committee1

Risk of Death by Age (X3)







0-17 

5,199 ,905

513

1:10,000

X

1:83 (20)

18-29 

7,742,370

3888

1: 1,991

1:18,000

1:69 (30)

30-39 

5,841,598

11,313

1:516

1:18,000

1:47 (40)

40-49 

5,121,409

28,190

1:181

1:18,000

1:30 (50)

50-64 

6,787,683

125,812

1:54

1:5000

1:14 (60)

65-74 

2,513, 548

160,596

1:16

1:30002

1:7 (70)

75-84     

1,274,874

187,611

1:7

1:1100

1:4 (80)

Ø  85 

964,714

195,007

1:5

1:1000

1:1.58 (90)

1The Israeli People’s Committee estimated Death Rate from the Coronavirus Vaccine

2Average of row values directly above and below.

3For the year 2019: Calculate the number who die each decade from the table.  Divide this number by the number who were alive at the start of decade.  Divide 1 by this fraction to get the Risk of Death by Age (or the number who will die per value given).

Monday, October 11, 2021

Weather It Is (Falling Into Fall Weather Changes)

Good Evening:

The weather is moving into Fall-mode.  Temperatures are forecast to fall off substantially over the next couple of weeks.  At the surface, though, temperatures will still be warm under the October sun. However, aloft temperatures will be cooling and humidities increasing.  

Our first chance for showers is tomorrow, Tuesday, as colder air and humidity advects into the upper layers of the atmosphere.  This quick moving shot of cooler air will be followed by a deeper trough late this week or early next week, which could bring us our first rain.  

Of course my wife will act surprised when all this comes about. She'll probably go to school dressed for spring and come home a bit wet from the rain.  Why does this happen -- after-all, she has access to first hand information, right from the horse's mouth, so to speak?

Well, I can't really answer that, but I can tell you that the advent and length of the holidays is always a  bit of a surprise (even though they seem to come every year about the same time).  It was under these circumstances that I became a bit uncoiffed. In fact, it got so bad my wife made me sleep at a friends home until my hair was shortened and eyebrows were properly trimmed.  The good news is -- as implied -- I'm back home now.

Just prior to my unceremonious dismissal, a very strange thing happened. We were having a discussion about the leftover tuna and  I asked my wife to decide whether I should go ahead and eat it or not.  I asked a few times, until she finally said: "you decide."  I think this was the first decision I made since just after we were married, when I decided to let my wife decide -- everything.  

Euphoria set in, but it was short lived. I was left with the question: was it because it was the tuna, and who knows what might have lurked within? Would she still let me make this decision now that I am -- with her approval -- coiffed?

Be well,

Barry Lynn