Good Afternoon:
We're actually pretty sure that it is going to get cooler as Erev Shabbat turns into Shabbat day. However, we're pretty uncertain what the cooler, if not chilly air will lead to.
We see a broad ridge of warm air forming over the eastern Atlantic and pushing its way into western Europe. At the same time, the northern Jet Stream will become very active and winter like. Some of the cold-air energy should merge with a southern Jet Stream trough and bring the possibility of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday of the coming week.
Yet, even though this is clear, there is a lot of uncertainty in just how strong this feature will be or how much of the cold air it will tap on its way across the Mediterranean. A stronger trough and there will be more rain with possibly strong winds.
While it may warm up a bit on Thursday and Friday from the Wednesday chill, we see a general turning of the winds to the northwest. Yesterday's GFS showed a sharp ridge forming over central Europe and cold air diving into our area on Shabbat of next week and the week after. Such a scenario would bring us wet snow or even snow. Today's GFS rounds off the ridge a bit and the coldest air stays a bit north of our area.
The GFS ensemble shows a 20% chance that the ridge will sharpen and the trough deepen enough to return us to a snowy winter. Otherwise, there is the likelihood of rain next Shabbat or early next week with cool or chilly temperatures.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 27, 2015
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Weather It Is (Strange Motions)
Good Afternoon:
Highlight:
A warm day, followed by cooler weather next week, and a chance of snow early the week after next.
When people see me they make strange cutting motions with their hands (about waist high). They also shake their heads -- perhaps in an ominous way. Are they asking, or are they telling me (no more snow, bring on the spring!)?
There are even those who choose to apply blame even when none is deserved.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/false-israel-drowns-gaza-claims-sweep-internet/
The weather will be warming up, but it won't feel toasty. True, it will be pleasant, but it will last just one day (into Friday Evening), and then the temperature will start downwards again on Shabbat.
In fact, as Purim comes around an area of low pressure should approach from the west. It may not be a particularly strong area of low pressure, but it could bring a period (or periods) of light to moderate rain. It should be cold enough for some snow on the Hermon.
Looking further ahead to Shabbat and early the following week. We still see a 15 to 20% chance that this period could turn quite cold and perhaps even snowy. Of course, like last time, there is an 80% chance that nothing will come of this, but rain.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Weather It Is (Palestinian Black Mail/Purim Snowmen)
Good Morning:
It is extremely satisfying to read in the papers that a jury in Manhattan ruled against the Palestinian Liberation Organization and Palestinian Authority. They basically convicted these organizations of murder.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-11-families-at-the-heart-of-the-landmark-palestinian-terror-trial/
Of course, the list of plaintiffs is only a small sample. The stories of others murdered by Palestinians cast a dark pall over my feelings: for example: the husband and wife blown up outside a building after learning that the wife was pregnant with twins. Nearly entire families murdered in Gazaand and Itimar. A father murdered on his way to Passover Sedar (he was not the only target). A young lady murdered in Gush Etzion, residents of my town. A Passover Sedar blown up, buses... These are select people and selected areas, but the Palestinians have been an equal opportunity people, not discriminating by place, time, or person (man, women, children).
Moreover, they continue to blackmail us: unless we agree to all of their "peace" terms, they will sue us in International Court -- even though these terms sign our death warrant and make false assumptions about international law itself. They don't pay their electricity bills and expect us to continue to provide free electricity or they will riot. We need to provide food, electricity, and building materials to Gaza, or they will shoot missiles now rather than later (after they have used these materials to build tunnels under the border).
Moreover, the proclaim a state that has no borders and can't even come close to balancing its budget! It almost seems that the only thing they (as in the leadership and that percentage of the population that supports them) take seriously is their efforts to rid the world of us -- everything else is commentary.
Enough of this. Perhaps we need to let them implode (or explode), and hope that "survival of the fittest" will see a moderate voice emerge.
Regarding our weather, it is really a mishmash. Or rather, the circulation pattern is a mishmash of relatively small waves. One of those waves will approach us in the next few days and bring steadily increasing temperatures. In fact, it will be about 10 to 15 C warmer than it has been. But then by late Shabbat the wave will pass through and it will be as cold as it was, and possibly not as cold as it will be.
By Purim time, we see a greater possibility of rain. At the moment, we can't tell how serious a rain and we can't tell just how cold it will get. There is still about a 20% chance of wet snow in one of these more rainy episodes. But, before we start dressing up like snowmen we should first wait and see which way the wind blows: wetter, or wetter and cold.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Weather It Is (A Little Training Helps)
Good Morning:
Good Morning;
"If you don't know how to use the rag [without cleaning it beforehand], use wipes"
"When I come up, don't be in my way -- be finished with whatever you have to do."
The other day I saw my wife replacing the windshield wiper of my car; I'd already tried.
When young women are dating, they ask whether the "Bochur" is a promising Rabbi, a doctor, lawyer, or maybe an aspiring artist. They never imagine that the talents they think their future hubby to possess will never pass through the door of their home! They don't imagine that their future husbands won't be able to change a light bulk (seen the new LEDs?) or do simple time management out of the office.
And it is for this reason I write this blog. It gives me a chance to explain to the women folk just the way things are -- so they can be a little more understanding. After all, we never expect our dog to do much more than bark and wag his/her tail -- should there really be higher expectations for husbands? Not without training, of course!
(Of course, men might consider to be more appreciative of their wives, but this, perhaps, is the subject of a future blog.)
I also write this blog because I like to give its readers not only useful information, but some knowledge about the physical processes that come together to make our weather.
For instance, there will be scattered showers in our area during the next few days.
Looking ahead, we see a trough trying to build in eastern Europe, eventually extending down into the eastern Mediterranean. It will do so as a ridge noses its way into central Europe. The combination of the trough and ridge will enhance the southerly flow of air from the cold reaches of the north. Hence, the two systems acting together could make for an unusually cold Purim as cold Siberian air heads southward.
At the moment, there is not anything we can definitely say other than with the exception of a day or two of more spring-like warmth, the temperatures will remain winter-cool/cold. How cold, we'll let you know.
Barry Lynn
Good Morning;
"If you don't know how to use the rag [without cleaning it beforehand], use wipes"
"When I come up, don't be in my way -- be finished with whatever you have to do."
The other day I saw my wife replacing the windshield wiper of my car; I'd already tried.
When young women are dating, they ask whether the "Bochur" is a promising Rabbi, a doctor, lawyer, or maybe an aspiring artist. They never imagine that the talents they think their future hubby to possess will never pass through the door of their home! They don't imagine that their future husbands won't be able to change a light bulk (seen the new LEDs?) or do simple time management out of the office.
And it is for this reason I write this blog. It gives me a chance to explain to the women folk just the way things are -- so they can be a little more understanding. After all, we never expect our dog to do much more than bark and wag his/her tail -- should there really be higher expectations for husbands? Not without training, of course!
(Of course, men might consider to be more appreciative of their wives, but this, perhaps, is the subject of a future blog.)
I also write this blog because I like to give its readers not only useful information, but some knowledge about the physical processes that come together to make our weather.
For instance, there will be scattered showers in our area during the next few days.
Looking ahead, we see a trough trying to build in eastern Europe, eventually extending down into the eastern Mediterranean. It will do so as a ridge noses its way into central Europe. The combination of the trough and ridge will enhance the southerly flow of air from the cold reaches of the north. Hence, the two systems acting together could make for an unusually cold Purim as cold Siberian air heads southward.
At the moment, there is not anything we can definitely say other than with the exception of a day or two of more spring-like warmth, the temperatures will remain winter-cool/cold. How cold, we'll let you know.
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 23, 2015
Weather It Is (February 20/21st Storm Testimonial)
Around midnight we had the 3rd and final wave that hit us and the stuff the clouds threw at us was wild. It seemed to be, at one time, a combination of hail, large grapple and snow. Man, it sounded like our house was being hit by a barrage of snowballs. Big chunks of stuff struck our windows, stuff that was too soft to be hail but too big to be snowflakes. These were snowy clumps that fell out of the sky such that I have never seen nor heard of. What was that? Monster grapple?
Also the lightning that we had on erev Shabbat was of an intensity and frequency and overall duration of the waves of storm that came in that neither my wife nor I have experienced in our 34 years of living in Gush Etzion.
That was quite a storm, one of which will be hard to forget.
P.S. The storm continued as such until morning.
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Weather It Is (That 20 Year Itch)
Good Afternoon:
Every Purim we talk about it. Finally, I have it on good authority that it snows not every Purim -- but every 20 years on Purim. So, it snows on Purim at least once a generation. This is better than skipping a generation but not as good as I was led to believe by my wife (and others).
In the meantime, I am getting complaints about leftover snow. For those who have had enough, the forecast is indicating a chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. An area of low pressure should move across the Mediterranean, picking up moisture as it goes -- until it crashes on to our shores. This just might wash away the snow, where the sun hasn't melted it already.
The areas of low pressure will actually be weakening as it makes its way our way because the atmospheric energy associated with the northern Jet Stream is shifting to the west. In fact, during the next week it will shift so far west it will be in the northern Atlantic.
Even so, the forecast shows a weak trough redeveloping in the eastern Mediterranean with a weak ridge in central Europe. This will keep things somewhat cool around here, as air flows southwestward from cold Siberia.
Getting back to our Purim forecast: the GFS ensemble shows some instability in the 500 mb circulation pattern, indicating a possible merging of the northern and southern Jet Streams. At the moment, there is a 15% chance of snow on Purim. Of course, there is an 85% chance of something else, but we're all optimists here.
Barry Lynn
Every Purim we talk about it. Finally, I have it on good authority that it snows not every Purim -- but every 20 years on Purim. So, it snows on Purim at least once a generation. This is better than skipping a generation but not as good as I was led to believe by my wife (and others).
In the meantime, I am getting complaints about leftover snow. For those who have had enough, the forecast is indicating a chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. An area of low pressure should move across the Mediterranean, picking up moisture as it goes -- until it crashes on to our shores. This just might wash away the snow, where the sun hasn't melted it already.
The areas of low pressure will actually be weakening as it makes its way our way because the atmospheric energy associated with the northern Jet Stream is shifting to the west. In fact, during the next week it will shift so far west it will be in the northern Atlantic.
Even so, the forecast shows a weak trough redeveloping in the eastern Mediterranean with a weak ridge in central Europe. This will keep things somewhat cool around here, as air flows southwestward from cold Siberia.
Getting back to our Purim forecast: the GFS ensemble shows some instability in the 500 mb circulation pattern, indicating a possible merging of the northern and southern Jet Streams. At the moment, there is a 15% chance of snow on Purim. Of course, there is an 85% chance of something else, but we're all optimists here.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Weather It Is (Two Storms, Different Outcomes)
Good Evening:
The last time the Jewish people experienced a hail storm like Friday night's, they were in the desert of Egypt and they didn't worry about the power being knocked off in a burst of lightning. Perhaps, then, it is a bit ironic that this prelude to leaving Egypt, and coming to the "promised" land -- was simply another prelude for a hail and lightning show.
One can probably describe the two halves of our recent storm as "polar opposites." The first half brought heavy snow (19/20 of February), while the second half brought continuous hail (20/21 of February). In the first, the snow fell like a whisper; in the second, the hail fell like a percussion band (and the thunder to go with it sounded like a bass drum).
The first half was associated with extremely cold upper air temperatures and below freezing surface temperatures. The second was also associated with cold upper air temperatures, although not as cold as during the snow part of our storm. Temperatures at the ground were also warmer in the second hail storm, and a relatively mild and moist middle layer meant two things: the atmosphere was very unstable (conducive to thunderstorms) and that there was lot of riming of snow particles to produce graupel (what we're loosely calling hail here).
Most importantly, the collision of graupel and ice/snow particles in the presence of liquid water produces lightning, and there was a lot of lightning in the second part of our storm.
In fact, the second storm was remarkable for the duration of the hail, numerous and repeating thunderstorms, and for the fact that the hail accumulated on the ground throughout the night, even though the temperature never fell below 2 C (here in Efrat). Had surface temperatures been a bit colder, we might have awoken to 20 cm of hail (really graupel that looks like snow-ice cubes). Instead, as the hail melted, it was continuously replenished.
The top figure below show Jerusalem forecast rain accumulations ("rain-accu"), snow accumulations, and hail accumulations from the snow storm, while the bottom figure shows the same from the hail storm. The rain-accu is the sum of any rain, snow, and/or hail that falls. We also show the forecast snow height (what we usually refer to as snow amounts or accumulation). The snow height is what we have after snow falls and some of it melts.
During the snow part of our storm, the snow height was quite high (surface temperatures were very near of below freezing). Moreover, the snow accumulation was about four times the hail accumulation. In contrast, the second storm produced almost four times the amount of hail versus snow accumulation. Moreover, there was plenty of water "left-over" to cause lightning in the presence of snow and ice/graupel particles.
In our early blog on Friday, we mentioned that the second storm would accumulate only light amounts. What we didn't mention was that this light accumulation would mask such dramatic atmospheric processes leading to tremendous hail and lightning.
Like we did after the January snow-storm, we have modified our forecast output to more clearly show the types of precipitation reaching the ground, so that we can better convey the message we all need to hear to improve weather preparation and safety.
Barry Lynn
The last time the Jewish people experienced a hail storm like Friday night's, they were in the desert of Egypt and they didn't worry about the power being knocked off in a burst of lightning. Perhaps, then, it is a bit ironic that this prelude to leaving Egypt, and coming to the "promised" land -- was simply another prelude for a hail and lightning show.
One can probably describe the two halves of our recent storm as "polar opposites." The first half brought heavy snow (19/20 of February), while the second half brought continuous hail (20/21 of February). In the first, the snow fell like a whisper; in the second, the hail fell like a percussion band (and the thunder to go with it sounded like a bass drum).
The first half was associated with extremely cold upper air temperatures and below freezing surface temperatures. The second was also associated with cold upper air temperatures, although not as cold as during the snow part of our storm. Temperatures at the ground were also warmer in the second hail storm, and a relatively mild and moist middle layer meant two things: the atmosphere was very unstable (conducive to thunderstorms) and that there was lot of riming of snow particles to produce graupel (what we're loosely calling hail here).
Most importantly, the collision of graupel and ice/snow particles in the presence of liquid water produces lightning, and there was a lot of lightning in the second part of our storm.
In fact, the second storm was remarkable for the duration of the hail, numerous and repeating thunderstorms, and for the fact that the hail accumulated on the ground throughout the night, even though the temperature never fell below 2 C (here in Efrat). Had surface temperatures been a bit colder, we might have awoken to 20 cm of hail (really graupel that looks like snow-ice cubes). Instead, as the hail melted, it was continuously replenished.
The top figure below show Jerusalem forecast rain accumulations ("rain-accu"), snow accumulations, and hail accumulations from the snow storm, while the bottom figure shows the same from the hail storm. The rain-accu is the sum of any rain, snow, and/or hail that falls. We also show the forecast snow height (what we usually refer to as snow amounts or accumulation). The snow height is what we have after snow falls and some of it melts.
During the snow part of our storm, the snow height was quite high (surface temperatures were very near of below freezing). Moreover, the snow accumulation was about four times the hail accumulation. In contrast, the second storm produced almost four times the amount of hail versus snow accumulation. Moreover, there was plenty of water "left-over" to cause lightning in the presence of snow and ice/graupel particles.
In our early blog on Friday, we mentioned that the second storm would accumulate only light amounts. What we didn't mention was that this light accumulation would mask such dramatic atmospheric processes leading to tremendous hail and lightning.
Like we did after the January snow-storm, we have modified our forecast output to more clearly show the types of precipitation reaching the ground, so that we can better convey the message we all need to hear to improve weather preparation and safety.
Barry Lynn
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