Weather It Is (That 20 Year Itch)

Good Afternoon:

Every Purim we talk about it. Finally, I have it on good authority that it snows not every Purim -- but every 20 years on Purim.  So, it snows on Purim at least once a generation.  This is better than skipping a generation but not as good as I was led to believe by my wife (and others).

In the meantime, I am getting complaints about leftover snow.  For those who have had enough, the forecast is indicating a chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  An area of low pressure should move across the Mediterranean, picking up moisture as it goes -- until it crashes on to our shores. This just might wash away the snow, where the sun hasn't melted it already.

The areas of low pressure will actually be weakening as it makes its way our way because the atmospheric energy associated with the northern Jet Stream is shifting to the west.  In fact, during the next week it will shift so far west it will be in the northern Atlantic.

Even so, the forecast shows a weak trough redeveloping in the eastern Mediterranean with a weak ridge in central Europe.  This will keep things somewhat cool around here, as air flows southwestward from cold Siberia.

Getting back to our Purim forecast: the GFS ensemble shows some instability in the 500 mb circulation pattern, indicating a possible merging of the northern and southern Jet Streams. At the moment, there is a 15% chance of snow on Purim. Of course, there is an 85% chance of something else, but we're all optimists here.

Barry Lynn