Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Afternoon:

We're actually pretty sure that it is going to get cooler as Erev Shabbat turns into Shabbat day.  However, we're pretty uncertain what the cooler, if not chilly air will lead to.

We see a broad ridge of warm air forming over the eastern Atlantic and pushing its way into western Europe. At the same time, the northern Jet Stream will become very active and winter like.  Some of the cold-air energy should merge with a southern Jet Stream trough and bring the possibility of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday of the coming week.

Yet, even though this is clear, there is a lot of uncertainty in just how strong this feature will be or how much of the cold air it will tap on its way across the Mediterranean.  A stronger trough and there will be more rain with possibly strong winds.

While it may warm up a bit on Thursday and Friday from the Wednesday chill, we see a general turning of the winds to the northwest.  Yesterday's GFS showed a sharp ridge forming over central Europe and cold air diving into our area on Shabbat of next week and the week after.  Such a scenario would bring us wet snow or even snow.  Today's GFS rounds off the ridge a bit and the coldest air stays a bit north of our area.

The GFS ensemble shows a 20% chance that the ridge will sharpen and the trough deepen enough to return us to a snowy winter. Otherwise, there is the likelihood of rain next Shabbat or early next week with cool or chilly temperatures.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn