Weather It Is (Winter Holds On, But...)

Good Afternoon:

Thursday night's late update suggested that heavy rain would fall in the center of the country, as well as south.  Yet, later updates trended the position of the low and heavy rain further south, until the forecast model correctly predicted that the rain system would mostly affect the south (as well as a good part of Jordan).

The Thursday night forecast for Shabbat's heavy rain was a forecast made 36 to 48 hours in advance.  We had mentioned that storms approaching from the south (with a tropical moisture source) are the most difficult to predict -- one reason being that there are fewer radiosondes (and other data sources) over Africa.

Still, there always seems to be a limit of useful predictability for our little country and I would say that beyond 30 hours is it (at least in terms of predicting the area of heaviest rain or snowfall).  There is not much we can do about this, except to possibly run more forecast ensemble members, but the cost of producing these forecasts is proportional to the number of forecasts made.

Even so, we predicted correctly that our temperatures today are more similar to those of winter and that such cold temperatures should persist until Wednesday.  With the cold temperatures will come a chance of rain at night and Monday morning, with the highest chances in the north. Forecast amounts are  likely to be between 10 and 25 mm, with rain possible as far south as Beer-Sheva.  The area of Jerusalem may also see > 10 mm over the storm's lifetime, but the probability is lower than in the north.

Another wave of low pressure should occur on Wednesday, but then temperatures should begin to climb, and they may climb all the way into the second week of April.

Spring may have finally sprung, with the exception of Yom HaAtmahut, which always seem to be rainy and/or chilly, no matter when it comes on the Calendar.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Correction! Tropical Rain)

Good Morning:

The tropical rain is expected to begin tonight and become heavy at times throughout the south and eastern sections, including the Dead Sea Area (and possibly the Jordan Valley).

Expect heavy flooding of rivers, streams. and creeks.

Showers of rain are expected Sunday and rain is possible on Monday.

Purim Samaech and Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Tropical Rain)

Good Evening:

Purim (in most of the land) turned out to be a fine day weather wise, although there were some clouds  from time to time.

There will also be some dust ahead of our next system, which should arrive Saturday night.

The Motzei Shabbat storm should bring plenty of tropical moisture coupled with cooling temperatures aloft.  The combination should create both a steady, light rain, but occasional thunderstorms as well  At the moment, there looks to be enough rain to cause flooding in the Arava, as well as the Dead Sea Area.

Cold air should continue to pour southward on Monday, and Tuesday may bring a more winter like storm, with even some ice pellets thrown in for good measure.

The cold weather will last into Wednesday, and the temperatures should moderate a bit as we head towards the end of the week.


Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Nice Weather, Some Rain)

Good Afternoon:

The weather pattern is full of changes.  The next couple of days will be quite warm, with Thursday the warmest of the two.  Friday will turn a tad cooler, but Shabbat will warm up ahead of an approaching front.

A few days ago, we mentioned a 60% chance that the atmosphere would develop a pronounced longwave pattern, with a strong storm developing over the eastern Mediterranean.  However, it now looks like a series of weak storms will affect us next week, instead.

This means that rain chances will grow, but that heavy rain is not likely.

It's almost April, and it is unusual to have a heavy, prolonged rain at this time of the year.

Yet, the weather can turn chilly, and it will do this on Sunday and Monday of next week.

Purim Samaech!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Rain, Some Nice Weather, and A Storm to End the Month)

Good Evening:

A weak storm will approach tonight and bring a period of rain in the morning, with between 5 to 10 mm from north to south (of the Dead Sea).  Scattered rain showers will persist in the afternoon and evening.

The weather will stay cool on Monday, but Tuesday will see a significant warm up that should last through Purim Day.

After Purim Day, the weather will change significantly.  It may be Shushan Purim, or it may be the day after, or even Sunday, but much colder weather will arrive, and so should the rain.

There is an interesting weather pattern forecast. After the low pressure tomorrow, a weak ridge will build ahead of another system moving across the Mediterranean.  Southerly winds ahead of the low will bring unseasonably warm weather, and as the low approaches it will drag a cool front through our area.

That might normally be the end of it. The low would move through and we would have some light showers.

However, an intense storm will move into the eastern Atlantic and move north of England.  A southeast to northeast ridge should then shoot up into the Baltic Sea.  On the southeastern side of this ridge, cold, Siberian air should flow southwestward and spin up a major winter storm over our area. Hence, there is a 60% chance of heavy rain next week, with unusually cold temperatures.

Purim Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Hangs On, but Purim turns nice)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has warmed up a bit, and it will warm up some more tomorrow.

But then a cool front will once again bring a chill to the air, as well as another period of light rain on Sunday.

The cool weather will last into Tuesday, and then the weather should turn nice for Purim (nice and possibly quite warm). 

While it is true that the warm weather will make us think that spring has sprung, more winter like weather should return the following week.  It may actually turn downright chilly as a ridge of high pressure splits Europe between an intense low pressure area off the coast of England and a deep trough in the eastern Mediterranean.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Soggy Weather)

Good Morning:

Today and tonight's weather will bring periods of rain to the center area, including the coastal areas, the central mountains, and down to Beer-Sheva.  Total rain amounts are expected to exceed 10 mm over the period. Showers may persist on Thursday.

In the north, heavier rain is expected with areas around the Kinneret receiving between 10 and 25 mm, with localized heavier amounts, especially over the mountains.

We're in quite an active weather pattern.  It will stay on the chilly side until Friday, before a quick warm up on Shabbat (relatively speaking), followed by cooler weather and a chance of showers early next week.

Beyond this period, the global ensemble shows that our active weather pattern should continue, with the possibility of a more significant rain towards the end of the month, as well as a return to chilly weather.

It's rather late in the season for chilly weather.  However, a strong and persistent ridge in western Europe is helping to build a trough of colder weather to its east.  At the same time, there is a fairly active southern Jet stream.  As storms move eastward under the ridge, they are able to draw on unseasonably cold air in the trough, adding a bit more than usual for this time of year (cold air related) energy (there is a good baroclinic zone), bringing us first a brief warming and dust, followed by strong winds, chilly temperatures, and periods of rain.

Barry Lynn