Weather It Is (Special Weather Statement)

Good Evening:

Predicting the weather this night presents a bit of a conundrum.   Here's what we know: i) heavy rain will develop and cover most of the centre and north of the country.  ii) Extremely cold air will arrive aloft (at 500 mb) towards midnight, and then filter its way towards the ground.  iii) Temperatures at 700 mb are suppose to now arrive below the "magic" -10 C, indicating ideal temperatures for snow formation in the lower-middle atmosphere.  iv) Reflective (pink) clouds have been observed, indicating the clouds are filling with snow. Yet, temperatures near the ground will likely remain above freezing -- unless it snows.

Our models are indicating that surface temperatures should remain just above freezing.  Yet, this seems to be a case where brains should outwit brawn.  Not once did I see such cold temperatures at 500 mb without a good period of snow -- snow heavy enough to cool the lower atmosphere to stick (i.e, accumulate).  Still, I don't necessarily feel comfortable with this forecast because a degree (or even half a degree) could make a big difference.

To be safe, we're issuing a winter weather advisory for the higher elevations in the centre and north, with a winter storm warning for the Hermon.

The precipitation should become heavy at times during the night, and continue into the morning.  Lighter amounts of precipitation should continue into the late morning, before ending as showers in the afternoon.  Temperatures should warm enough in the morning at some point to melt any snow that falls, but we expect locally icy roads.

I'll head off to sleep tonight (hopefully, without any missiles flying overhead) -- I really don't know how the government can tolerate a situation where missiles, not snowflakes fall from the sky.

Purim Samaech,

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn