Weather It Is (Rumours Persist)

Good Evening:

We're looking at a rather large and complex storm heading our way Tuesday night and lasting into Friday.  Temperatures will actually be cold enough for what we consider snow conditions at 500 mb; however, the middle-lower (700 mb) and lower (850 mb) atmosphere should be warm enough to melt snow that forms.  Still, icy graupel/hail may briefly stick to cars, and the rain and wind should be quite heavy through the period.

Speaking of rain, we had 1.63 inches over the last two days.

Temperatures will be chilly on Wednesday and Thursday, and then fall again on Friday.  The big "if" is what happens on Shabbat.  The most likely scenario is that rain will come to an end late Friday.  However, cold air should continue to filter in at the 850 and 700 mb levels and may actually approach or fall below freezing at the surface in high elevations.  Right now, we see a 15% chance that these cold temperatures will be supported by even colder temperatures aloft -- cold enough for a good late season snow.  On the other hand, there is an 85% chance that Shabbat will just dawn chilly and damp, and possibly end our winter on this note.

So, the rumours are right to persist, but don't buy your Purim snow costumes based just on a rumour.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn