Weather It Is (Here and There (2) -- Weddings and Jerusalem)

Coming out of the Gush Etzion  theatre centre my wife had occasion to tell me (in Hebrew, though) "Don't look backwards if you're worried about tripping over something in front of you." A pearl of wisdom.  

Yet, good scientists often look backwards in order to make better science going forward (better known as making use of experience), and meteorologists are no exception.  This seems like a bit of a contradiction because we're always making predictions about the future -- that is, we're looking forward in time. On the other hand, experience is not really useful for looking back but really for looking forward.

But of course, we're never really certain about the future, and I am fortunate to work in a field where we can more or less assess the probabilities of what will be weather wise, and even though we can't be certain, we can be smart.  

For instance, while I am pretty certain that we're not going to have any summertime, it does look like we're going to start to feel more like summer (but not all at once as tomorrow's warmer temperatures will be replaced the day after with today's more mild temperatures -- but then it will only to get even warmer the next day.  

Yet,  just like Kenny Roger's "you got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, ... You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table," we see an unseasonably high chance of showers to start the next month associated with colder air seeping southward from Central Europe.  While this is far from certain, and I am not saying it will, it just might rain (or at least present the potential for flooding).

I am often asked if it is "weather-safe" to make a wedding at this time of year.  I always answer that the odds or in the asker's favor.  I had the occasion to attend an engagement party, and it is amazing to see just how much smiling goes on (between the bride and groom to be).  There is probably no greater blessing in the world, and I believe that what makes us strong as a people is just how much we appreciate our blessings like these and those that hopefully flow henceforth.  These may be the blessings of family, or even the blessings of our place, as celebrated through our music (and no better example was the music we heard last night to celebrate Jerusalem at the Gush Etzion theatre ("Ensemble Nigun Yerushalmi").  I don't really think the world understands just how strong our attachment is to our history, our place, and (God willing) our future.

Barry Lynn