Weather It Is (Pre-Purim Showers)

Good Evening:

The first time I remember it snowing every week was the winter of 1992/93, and then 1995/96.  I was in New York and Maryland, respectively.

If one has been following the New York weather this winter, one might have noted that it went from wet to very cold, and now to very cold and frequently snowy.  The (decadal) winter climate of the NY region and northeast has definitely changed, and one can see that in winter snow averages.

When I moved here, and to very recently, one would read that it doesn't snow in Jerusalem.  Yet, January 2000 saw a rather large snow, and it snowed moderate amounts in January 2002, large amounts in February 2003, moderate amounts in 2004 and 2006, and larger amounts in January/February 2008. It also snowed small amounts in 2011 and 2012, and we all remember the large snows of 2012, 2013, and 2015.

In contrast, the decade of the 1990s saw heavy snow only in January/February 1992 and January/March of 1998.  So, snow has been occurring more frequently here as well, and -- note -- the March snow of 1998 came on the 18th of the month.

For the record, we had 66 cm in four different snow episodes here in Efrat (15 cm on 7th/9th of January), 30 cm 19th of February, and 6 cm on the night of the 20th.  In fact, we've had 4 years of measurable snow in a row.

So, where does this discussion fit in to our weather?  We're expecting some light rain tonight (Tuesday night) from Beer-Sheva to the north, and then a warming trend until Shabbat Eve.

Beyond the 7th of March, we see a lot of confusion in the weather forecast.  By confusion, I mean that the different global ensemble members show large variability.  This could be to the changing of the seasons or possibly to the high time variability of the weather upstream in the Atlantic ocean. About a week ago, we saw the possibility of snow early next week, but the forecast changed to indicate instability(potential storminess) in the wave pattern from the 11th of the month onwards.  While nothing is clear, other than the possibility of rain, there are some indications that wet snow is possible as well.

As for the weather from the 7th to the 11th (Sunday to Wednesday next week), there is still a 50% chance that the warm temperatures will continue until then.

When I know more, I'll pass it on.

Purim Samaech,

Barry Lynn