Weather It Is (A Winter Retreat)

Good Afternoon:

Certainly it won't feel like winter is retreating.  In fact, temperatures will fall off by some 15 C Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The colder air will be accompanied by a period of rain over a large part of the country.  Rain amounts, though, are not expected to be heavy -- rather a light rain may continue for half a day or more.

Yet, a closer look at the weather map suggests that the northern Jet Stream is retreating to the north and our southern Jet Stream is weakening and less likely to couple with the northern Stream. Hence, the overall pattern is transitioning into spring, which is about right for the calendar date.

Temperatures should remain on the cool/chilly side for several days.  From next week onwards, we see temperatures moderating, but they will not even be close to this week's early warmth.  The reason for this is an areas of high pressure located far to our north, which will direct cold air southward (but not in the way that would lead to a storm spinning up over the eastern Mediterranean).

In fact, a few ensemble models "want" to bring a late season storm back our way mid to late next week.  But this is a only a small chance and obviously outside what might be expected of the last week of March.

Barry Lynn