Weather It Is (There Goes The Heat)

Good Afternoon:

We're getting to the end of our current heat wave.

Today -- as forecast -- it was actually warmer in the Jerusalem mountains than it was in the coastal plain.  The high temperatures in the central mountains were in the middle 30s, but only the lower 30s down in the coastal plain (including Ben-Gurion Airport).

The reason for the slightly cooler temperatures in the coastal plain was the approach of a cool front making its way in-land from off-shore.  The winds switched from southeasterly along the coast  to westerlies this mid-morning. Here, inland in the central mountains, the winds were still easterly, and our temperatures warmed all the way into the mid-30s.  Here in Efrat it was 35 C, while in Jerusalem it was 36 C (at 4 P.M, the day's high so far).

The cool front will arrive this evening in the central mountains and make temperatures drop by about 15 C.  Humidities will rise behind the front from just about 10% to about 50% as winds change from east to west.  The temperature in the lower atmosphere will drop  continuously from tonight until Friday morning, dropping about 5 degrees per day.  It will be windy, but not too windy.  The temperatures at 500 mb will be dropping a bit, so there could be some clouds.

Yet, Friday will bring a warming trend, and temperatures may rise about 5 C per day over the following next few days.  The Shavuot holiday could bring temperatures back into the 30s again.

There is, however, still a several degree uncertainty in the temperatures for Shavuat.  Following Shavuat, there is a 15% chance that temperatures will rise even further, while there is a small chance that temperatures will be unseasonably cool.  Most likely, temperatures will be seasonable, but the possibility of very-extreme heat should be considered.

If there is a return of extreme (or even very-extreme) heat, it will require greater attention to those who are more likely to suffer from heat stress, and increase the potential of a severe wildfire.

Barry Lynn/Abie Seif