Weather It Is (Important Changes A Foot)

Good Evening:

The weather continues to be cold -- although not the "bone-chilling" cold I grew up with.  Still, it's colder than where I grew up with and that is pretty amazing for December.

It's even more interesting because the Arctic Oscillation (AO)  has been in its positive phase, meaning middle latitudes are generally warmer than on average.

Please see here for a nice summary:
 https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/weather_climate_patterns.html

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO has been in its negative phase.

Please see here for a nice summary.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about-the-weather/north-atlantic-oscillation

My supposition is that the strong El-Nino is helping to build a trough in our region, leading to the cooler than normal weather.

The Arctic Oscillation should go negative while the North Atlantic Oscillation should go back positive for the next few weeks.

(See here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about-the-weather/north-atlantic-oscillation)

A positive NAO brings more storms across the Atlantic, while the negative AO tends to bring colder weather southward from the poles.  The two together may help us build a ridge over central Europe and a trough in the eastern Mediterranean.  It also presents the possibility for storms in the southern Jet Stream to couple with the northern Jet Stream, which we need for the real-cold and wet to arrive here.

The result should be colder weather as we approach the new year. Hence, there is a 50% chance of rain and a 20% of our first snow.

In the meantime,  Thursday will see a 20% chance of a weak storm transversing our area and then several days of slightly warmer weather before the cool down as we approach next  year.

Barry Lynn